BRASILIA -Former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva retains a 14-percentage-point lead against far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro if an October election goes to a run-off between them as expected, a new opinion poll showed on Tuesday.
Bolsonaro has gained ground, however, with approval of his government rising more than 4 percentage points to about 30%, according to the survey by pollster MDA, commissioned by transportation industry group CNT.
The result supported a recent trend in several surveys showing Bolsonaro’s standing has risen among voters as his government boosts spending on social programs and the president crisscrossed the country ahead of the formal campaign season.
In initial simulated first round of voting with other candidates, Lula drew 40.6% of voter support against 32% for Bolsonaro, compared to a CNT/MDA survey in February when Lula had 42.2% to Bolsonaro’s 28%.
Lula would win a second-round run-off against Bolsonaro today by 50.8% of votes versus 36.8%, a narrower advantage than in February, when Lula led Bolsonaro 53.2% to 35.3% – a difference of almost 18 percentage points.
“The poll indicates an improvement for Bolsonaro, with increases both in the positive evaluation of his government and of his personal performance” as president,” MDA said.
Bolsonaro has repeatedly suggested Brazil’s electronic voting system is vulnerable to fraud without providing evidence, causing a crisis with electoral authorities and raising fears that he might not accept a defeat in October.
The CNT/MDA poll found that 68% of voters have confidence in Brazil’s electronic voting machines.
The MDA poll surveyed 2,002 voters between May 4-7 and has a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points in either direction.
(Reporting by Anthony BoadleEditing by Mark Heinrich)
