Republicans Make Huge Gains With Key Demographic Before Midterms

Republicans Make Huge Gains With Key Demographic Before Midterms

Bronson Winslow on November 2, 2022

White suburban women have shifted significantly from Democrat to Republican right before the midterm elections, according to a new poll by The Wall Street Journal.

White suburban women swung by 27% toward the Republican party since July, now reflecting a 15-point lead over Democrats, according to a November WSJ poll. The demographic, which represents 20% of the electorate, also reported that they would vote for former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden, 52% to 41%.

Of white suburban women, 54% believe the U.S. is already in a recession and 74% think the country’s economy is on the wrong track, according to the poll

. “We’re talking about a collapse, if you will, in that group on the perceptions of the economy,” Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio said, according to the WSJ.

Abortion is still a key concern for women, but the state of the economy has taken the lead for many in the demographic, Democratic pollster Molly Murphy said, according to the WSJ.

“It’s absolutely true that these women have shifted their gaze more on the economy than abortion. They think we’re in a recession. A majority are feeling financial strain in this economy,” she said.

Women were evenly split, 47% to 47%, between party lines as of Oct. 17, according a New York Times/ Siena College poll.

“That group [white suburban women] which the pollsters said makes up 20% of the electorate, shifted 26 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll and now favors the GOP by 15 percentage points.” https://t.co/ubiUS57VRP

— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) November 1, 2022

Despite the poll results pointing to a large shift in white suburban women voting Republican, Republican strategist Michael McKenna told the Daily Caller News Foundation that the poll likely isn’t entirely representative of the demographic’s political beliefs.

“Absent a significant event (think Pearl Harbor), it is extremely unlikely that a relatively homogeneous group like suburban white women would swing 27 points in 60 days. To assume otherwise is to assume that an enormous chunk of the group was previously unaware of the damage visited upon them by the incumbent and then suddenly became aware, more or less at the same instant,” McKenna said. “Voters simply don’t behave like that.”

The poll was conducted with 1,500 respondents from Oct. 22 to Oct. 26 and has a margin of error of 5.7%.