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Business News

BOJ Ueda says China’s slowdown adds to economic uncertainty

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

TOKYO (Reuters) – Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the pace of economic activity in China has been a disappointment that could cloud Japan’s economic outlook, according to a text of his speech delivered at the weekend Jackson Hole Symposium.

China’s July data, such as retail sales, business investment and industrial production were “on the weak side,” Ueda said, according to the text posted on the BOJ’s website on Monday.

“The underlying problem appears to be the adjustment in the property sector and its spillover to the rest of the economy,” Ueda said on China, adding that the hit to Japan from China’s weakness has been somewhat offset by the relative strength of the U.S. economy.

Ueda also said trade and foreign investment flows suggest Japanese firms are diversifying production from China into the rest of Asia and the United States, partly in response to geopolitical risks.

“Longer run effects of geopolitical factors on the Japanese economy are unsurprisingly very uncertain,” Ueda said, adding that “the tit-for tat war,” mainly in the semiconductor sector, between major advanced economies and China was a risk.

“Central banks will have a hard time factoring in these forces when making policy decisions,” he added.

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Ueda delivered the speech during a session on globalisation held on Saturday at the Jackson Hole Symposium in Wyoming.

Geopolitical tension between the United States and China has been among the risks to global trade that have weighed on export-reliant economies such as Japan.

Relations with China soured after Japan started releasing treated radioactive water from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific Ocean on Thursday, drawing expressions of concern from neighbouring countries.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; editing by Barbara Lewis)

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US and World News

Japan complains of harassment calls from China over Fukushima water release

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By Kiyoshi Takenaka and Martin Quin Pollard

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan said on Monday it had received many “extremely regrettable” harassment phone calls, likely from China, after the release of treated radioactive water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant into the Pacific.

The Chinese embassy in Tokyo said it too had been receiving nuisance calls, from Japan.

Japan started the water discharge on Thursday in a key step towards decommissioning the Fukushima plant, which suffered triple meltdowns after being hit by a tsunami in 2011 in the world’s worst nuclear plant disaster since Chernobyl 25 years earlier.

“A lot of harassment phone calls believed to be originating from China are occurring in Japan … These developments are extremely regrettable and we are concerned,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno, the chief government spokesman, told a regular news conference.

Such calls prompted vice foreign minister Masataka Okano to summon the Chinese ambassador, Japan’s foreign ministry said.

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A spokesman for China’s foreign ministry said it was not aware of the matter when asked about the harassment accusations at a regular briefing on Monday.

But the Chinese embassy in Tokyo released a statement saying it had lodged stern representations with Japan about the Chinese embassy and consulates in Japan receiving “a large number of nuisance calls from Japan”.

The calls have caused “serious interference in the normal operation of the embassy and consulates”, ambassador Wu Jianghao said, according to an embassy statement.

In a statement, Japan’s foreign ministry said the harassment calls were also occurring at Japanese facilities in China, and urged the government to ensure the safety of Japanese citizens.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the government had “strongly” requested Beijing to urge its citizens to act “calmly and responsibly” after incidents of stone-throwing were also reported at a Japanese school and embassy.

Fukushima city hall started receiving calls with the China country code +86 on Thursday and the number of such calls exceeded 200 the following day, flooding phone lines and disrupting city employees’ ordinary work, a city official said.

On the same day, elementary and junior high schools in the city, 60 km (38 miles) northwest of the crippled plant, received 65 similar calls, he said.

He said one caller made a comment to the effect of, “Why are you releasing tainted water into the Pacific Ocean, which is a sea for everyone?”.

Other municipalities, hotels and restaurants have also been getting such calls, domestic media said.

An executive at a Japanese restaurant chain operator said branches in central Tokyo were receiving frequent calls from people speaking Chinese from an +86 number. The company had reported the incidents to police, the executive said, speaking on condition of anonymity fearing even more harassment.

In China, a rock was thrown at the Japanese school in the coastal city of Qingdao on Thursday, according to the Consulate-General of Japan in the city.

When asked about the incident in Qingdao and the harassment calls, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin defended China’s record of keeping foreigners safe.

“China always safeguards the safety and lawful rights and interests of foreign nationals in China in accordance with law,” Wang said.

Fukushima plant operator Tokyo Electric Power (Tepco) has been filtering the contaminated water to remove isotopes, leaving only tritium, a radioactive isotope of hydrogen that is hard to separate.

China said Japan had not proved that the water would be safe and issued a blanket ban on all aquatic products from Japan.

(Reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka and Maki Shiraki in Tokyo, Martin Pollard in Beijing; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Mark Heinrich, Raju Gopalakrishnan and Nick Macfie)

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Evergrande loses $2 billion in value as trade resumes; extends creditor voting

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By Clare Jim

HONG KONG (Reuters) – China Evergrande Group lost $2.2 billion, or 79% of its market value, on Monday after its shares resumed trading in a crucial step for the world’s most indebted property firm to restructure its offshore debt.

Evergrande is at the centre of a crisis in China’s property sector that has seen a string of debt defaults since late 2021, and its stock has been suspended for 17 months.

The developer, which is in the process of getting approvals from creditors and the courts to implement the debt restructuring plan, said on Monday it would postpone by a month meetings for these creditors to vote on the proposal to give more time “to maximise creditor engagement and support informed-decision making”.

The scheme meetings will now take place on Sept 26, instead of Monday, but three people with direct knowledge of the matter said many creditors had already registered their vote by a deadline last Wednesday to submit forms.

Evergrande needs approval from more than 75% of the holders of each debt class to approve the plan, which offers creditors with a basket of options to swap debt for new bonds and equity-linked instruments backed by its stocks and those of its Hong Kong-listed units.

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Its Hong Kong listed shares closed down 79% to HK$0.35 on Monday. Market capitalisation shrank to HK$4.6 billion ($586.29 million) from HK$21.8 billion ($2.78 billion) from when it last traded.

PROPERTY DOWNTURN

Evergrande’s valuation hit an all-time high of close to HK$420 billion in 2017.

The stock has been suspended since March 21, 2022, and resumed trading after the company said it had fulfilled all conditions by the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Its units, China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle Group and Evergrande Property Services Group, have both resumed trading in the past month after a 16 month halt.

Evergrande would have faced delisting if the suspension had reached 18 months.

“Going forward things will continue to be difficult for both its operations and share performance,” said Steven Leung, Hong Kong-based director of UOB Kay Hian.

“There’s little hope that Evergrande can rely on selling houses to repay debt because homebuyers would prefer state-owned developers, and it won’t be able to benefit from stimulus policies.”

The deepening of debt crisis in the property sector has weighed on the recovery of China’s economy, putting more pressure to policymakers to roll out stimulus measures. The government has so far relaxed residential housing loan rules and supported affordable housing, briefly cheering investors.

The Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index rose more than 6% in early morning session, before closing up 0.1%

However, China’s new home prices will likely show no growth this year, according to a Reuters poll.

“We haven’t seen meaningful improvement in the property market’s fundamentals,” said Mark Dong, Hong Kong-based general manager of Minority Asset Management, which manages more than $1 billion in assets. The firm has cut its holding in property stocks, Dong said.

Evergrande’s trade resumption also came after the developer on Sunday reported a narrower net loss for the first half of the year due to a rise in revenue.

Evergrande also posted a combined net loss of $81 billion for 2021 and 2022 in a long-overdue earnings report last month, versus an 8.1 billion yuan profit in 2020.

As with Evergrande’s previous two annual financial statements, auditor Prism Hong Kong and Shanghai has not issued a conclusion on this report, citing multiple uncertainties relating to the business as a going concern.

($1 = 7.2834 Chinese yuan renminbi)

($1 = 7.8447 Hong Kong dollars)

(This story has been refiled to remove extraneous words in headline)

(Reporting by Clare Jim; Additional reporting by Xie Yu and Donny Kwok; Editing by Kim Coghill and Christopher Cushing and Miral Fahmy)

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Here’s the Most Popular Trash Items People are Leaving at the Jersey Shore

by Phil Stilton August 28, 2023
By Phil Stilton

SEASIDE HEIGHTS, NJ – Amidst the backdrop of sandy beaches and crashing waves, one organization has been waging a quiet war against trash for decades. Since 1985, Clean Ocean Action has performed annual beach sweeps, effectively removing close to 8,000,000 pieces of debris from New Jersey’s coastline.

The initiative returned in 2021 after a COVID-19-induced hiatus, mobilizing 10,003 volunteers who picked up 513,605 items in a six-hour window. The numbers tell a story of a relentless problem: litter left behind by beachgoers that accumulates every year.

What the Sweeps Recovered: The Top 10 Offenders

  1. Plastic Caps and Lids: These seemingly harmless items accounted for nearly 70,000 pieces of beach trash. Contrary to popular belief, burying them in the sand doesn’t make them go away.
  2. Plastic Pieces: Whether from broken chairs or coolers, 67,000 pieces of fragmented plastic were collected.
  3. Food and Candy Wrappers: Discarded casually by beachgoers, wrappers amounted to 58,000 pieces of trash found during the sweep.
  4. Straws and Stirrers: Easy to use and easier to dispose of improperly, 34,800 straws and stirrers were found on the beaches.
  5. Cigarette Filters: Often buried in the sand, 32,000 filters were uncovered in 2021.
  6. Foam Pieces: From boogie boards to takeout containers, 26,800 foam pieces were discovered.
  7. Other Plastics: Miscellaneous plastics made up 13,500 pieces of the debris.
  8. Paper: Discarded flyers, newspapers, and other forms of paper contributed to 11,700 pieces of litter.
  9. Plastic Bottles: Over 11,000 bottles were found, a reminder of the ongoing plastic pollution crisis.
  10. Cigar Tips: A seemingly indulgent pleasure left a significant mark with 11,300 tips collected.

Beachgoers are encouraged to be more responsible about their trash disposal habits, as every piece left behind contributes to a growing problem. While Clean Ocean Action and its volunteers show the way, it’s up to everyone else to ensure that New Jersey’s beaches remain the treasures they’re meant to be.

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Business News

U.S. trucking firms see freight downturn reversing after dour quarter

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By Priyamvada C

(Reuters) -The U.S. trucking industry may begin to see an uptick in freight demand in the back half of the year after grappling with another quarter of lower profits due to a slump in package volumes, company executives and analysts said.

The expectations have been largely fueled by U.S. retailers’ comments on their improving inventory position and prospects of better inbound container shipments.

Companies ranging from Target to Macy’s have signaled that they have largely moved past their bloated inventory issues from a year earlier as retailers look to stock up on in-demand products ahead of the crucial holiday season.

Meanwhile, a drop in volume of large containers handled by U.S. ports compared to last year is also set to narrow in the coming months, according to the National Retail Federation, indicating retailers are preparing for increased demand during the year-end holiday period.

“Most of our retail customers have worked through that inventory…so it does look like the freight markets have troughed from a demand perspective,” said logistics firm XPO’s chief Mario Harik, adding that freight markets could recover into 2024.

XPO, which serves companies such as Ulta Beauty, said it saw shipment count and tonnage flip to positive in July, indicating the start of a slightly improved freight demand environment.

Old Dominion Freight Line Chief Financial Officer Adam Satterfield also expressed similar views last month on inventory.

“We get the sense that inventory levels are normalizing a bit,” Satterfield said in an earnings call.

Freight demand slumped last year after a surge during the pandemic-induced shift to online shopping as customers returned to stores and household budgets were pressured by sticky inflation.

This led to retailers moving to stop an inventory pileup, sending a ripple effect on trucks and railroads that move the goods.

“I don’t know that we’ve ever seen freight demand fall this far so fast and for so long without an accompanying economic recession,” logistics firm Knight-Swift Transportation chief David Jackson said in a post-earnings call with analysts.

As a result, adjusted net income at trucking firms such as JB Hunt, Old Dominion, CH Robinson and XPO fell between 22% and 69% in the second quarter from a year earlier.

The second quarter was the most challenging for trucking firms in recent times, analysts and industry executives said, owing to high wage costs and ultra-low spot rates, or the current market price for a one-time freight shipment.

But there is light at the end of the tunnel.

“We’re still in the worsening part of the down cycle.. but by the time we get into next year, we’ll be returning to growth,” said Tim Denoyer of market research firm ACT Research.

Knight-Swift said a combination of demand recovery as import volumes return to more normal levels and supply reduction should lead to improving freight market conditions in the near future.

“There are still some areas where retail inventories are too high, but more and more categories will need restocking as time progresses,” ACT Research’s Denoyer said.

Meanwhile, the demise of Yellow Corp, the third-biggest U.S. trucking company, may also help prop up rates for rivals such as XPO, FedEx Freight, and Old Dominion among others, analysts said.

(Reporting by Priyamvada C in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Aishwarya Venugopal; Editing by Sriraj Kalluvila)

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Business News

US-Sino tensions help spawn China card game craze

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By Yew Lun Tian

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s bankers and business executives have become increasingly reliant on domestic capital in recent years as foreign funding has dried up, but a popular way to unlock that cash may very well involve “throwing eggs”.

The term refers to Guandan, a poker-like card game that has been around for decades, but has gained fresh life among venture capitalists a few years ago as they awoke to its popularity among wealthy local government officials in eastern regions.

“Officials like this game, so we play along,” said Yang Yiming, an investment banker whose job involves canvassing government funding for projects linked to semiconductors and defence.

The growing interest in business circles has spawned a craze for the game nationwide, driven partly by financial constraints stemming from souring ties with China’s biggest trade partner, the United States.

This month U.S. President Joe Biden barred some investment in semiconductors and set controls on other sensitive sectors, aiming to curb trade and funding that could give rival Beijing an edge in technology.

Total U.S.-based venture-capital investment in China plummeted to $9.7 billion last year from $32.9 billion in 2021, PitchBook data shows.

Domestic private capital has also dwindled as President Xi Jinping signalled his preference for a bigger state presence in the economy by launching crackdowns over the last few years in areas from technology to real estate and private tutoring.

As investment prospects darken, financiers increasingly view the game as a way to build ‘guanxi’ or connections with officials who hold the purse strings on local projects, especially those overseas investors might consider too risky.

“In finance, information is currency,” said Yang, for whom a game of guandan has become a standard gambit before wining and dining local officials.

“During a game which can stretch for hours, we are bound to chit-chat, and sometimes useful information gets passed around after people feel comfortable and trust you.”

Yu Longze, a broker based in Beijing, said his boss this month ordered all staff to learn the game.

Like bridge, the classic staple, the game is played among four players paired up in teams. Using two decks, players must throw down poker and other special card combinations to clear their hands before opponents.

“From observing someone’s playing style, you can tell if he is smart, aggressive or a team player. This can help you decide if you want him as a business partner,” said a businessman surnamed Huang, who runs a private clubhouse where the game has become a favourite pastime of officials and company executives.

But not everyone treats guandan as a business tool.

Many players say they simply enjoy the mental stimulation from a game that is cheap, convenient to play and allows them to socialise – aspects that, taken together, explain its appeal to all walks of life.

Customers ranged from retired people to young professionals seeking to build new social ties, said Hua Min, who this year opened the first bar dedicated to hosting guandan games in Beijing, the capital.

Li Keshu, a lawyer, said playing with his friends in a park helped get through the social isolation and economic frustration of the COVID-19 years, when China threw up strict barriers against infection.

“It’s cost-free. Unlike ‘Texas Hold’em’ or mahjong, this game doesn’t need to be played with money to be fun. On the contrary, money spoils the friendship and the game.”

While the players Reuters spoke to said they do not gamble, Chinese officials have been censured in the past for receiving bribes through the playing of card games or the traditional tile pastime of mahjong.

In April, the ruling Communist Party’s anti-graft watchdog censured one of its officials in the eastern province of Anhui for playing guandan during a training course, among other misdeeds.

In a sign that Beijing is not perturbed by the growing interest in the game, however, China’s national sports authority has organised the first nationwide guandan competition this year.

(Reporting by Yew Lun Tian; Editing by John Geddie and Clarence Fernandez)

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U.S. reporter Gershkovich appeals latest extension of detention in Russia

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) – U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich has appealed against the latest extension of his pre-trial detention in Moscow on spying charges that he denies, Russian state media said on Saturday.

TASS news agency quoted a Moscow court as saying it had received the appeal from the defence team of the Wall Street Journal reporter.

Gershkovich was arrested on March 29 in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg on spying charges that carry up to 20 years in prison. No date has been set for his trial, and on Thursday his detention in Moscow’s Lefortovo prison was extended by three months to Nov. 30.

He has failed in two previous appeals, in April and June.

The United States says Russia is using Gershkovich to conduct “hostage diplomacy”, at a time when Moscow’s war in Ukraine has plunged relations with Washington to their lowest point in more than 60 years.

Washington says the case against him is bogus and has demanded the release of both Gershkovich and Paul Whelan, a U.S. citizen convicted of espionage in 2020 and serving 16 years in a Russian penal colony on spying charges that he too denies.

(Reporting by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by David Holmes)

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Analysis-Trump trials present unique challenge, opportunity for Biden campaign

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By Jarrett Renshaw

(Reuters) – A barrage of state and federal criminal charges leveled against your main political rival should be good news for any democratic leader facing reelection, but Donald Trump’s legal woes present U.S. President Joe Biden with a unique challenge in the months ahead, political strategists say.

Biden has so far remained mum as his Republican predecessor was charged with 91 felony counts in four indictments this year related to paying hush money to a [censored] star, unlawfully keeping classified documents and attempting to overturn the 2020 election. Don’t expect any change, Biden advisers say, until after decisions are handed down in those trials.

However, sustaining that strategy, during the most contentious and consequential judicial actions in U.S. presidential history, will be severely tested in the coming months, political strategists say.

Expect Trump to use a series of criminal trials from New York City to Georgia and Florida in the months ahead to fuel a campaign deeply rooted in grievance politics. Biden has sought to use a routine schedule of presidential events – promoting the economy and infrastructure investments – to draw a contrast with Trump’s chaotic legal woes.

The trials, some carried live on television, are likely to dominate news cycles, providing Trump an unorthodox platform to rally supporters who have put him at the top of the Republican primary field and believe the former president is being politically persecuted, despite the evidence.

Biden’s less dramatic reelection efforts will likely draw less valuable free air time, and any effort to provide some counterprogramming will be complicated by the Democratic president’s decision to not wade into the charges or use them to frame the potential dangers to democracy posed by Trump.

“It’s going to be very tricky and a real tough balancing act,” said Jimmy Seagull, a Democratic strategist working on congressional races.

CONVICTION ‘CHANGES EVERYTHING’

On the plus side for Democrats, the trials will keep the details of Trump’s unprecedented actions that led to the serious charges fresh in voters’ minds, giving Democrats and Biden an opportunity to provide a sharp contrast.

And all bets are off if Trump is convicted on any of the charges, officials say.

“A conviction changes everything. You will then see a more detailed, forceful effort by the president to connect the crimes to a broader threat to the nation,” said a senior Democrat working on Biden’s campaign, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly.

Until then, any Biden comment would fuel unfounded Republican attacks that the state and federal charges are politically motivated, and aides believe his silence reinforces a central tenet of his campaign: a return to normalcy.

“Anything he says or does could be perceived as putting a thumb on the scale and…would be exploited by Trump and his team to the detriment of the legal process. They don’t need to raise concerns. The news, perp walks, court appearances and evidence that continues to emerge say it all,” said Karen Finney, a Democratic strategist.

The White House and the reelection campaign are content to use the upcoming months – when Republicans are embroiled in a nasty nominating race – to pitch Americans on the success of Biden’s economic policies, interviews show.

His public approval rating held steady at 40% in early August, with concerns about the economy souring Americans’ opinion of his performance despite falling inflation, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll.

“Increasing the president’s economic poll numbers requires lots of time, repeating numbers and a lot of message discipline. We can always go back to Trump,” said a senior Democrat involved in the reelection effort, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly.

Instead, the reelection campaign will try to draw attention to differences between the two candidates, officials say.

On Thursday, as Trump was surrendering to Georgia authorities and posing for an unprecedented mug shot, Biden’s campaign account on the X platform posted: “Apropos of nothing, I think today’s a great day to give to my campaign.”

Asked Friday if he’d seen Trump’s mug shot, Biden, who was emerging from a Pilates class during his Lake Tahoe vacation, told reporters “I did see it on television – handsome guy.”

TRUSTED VOICE?

America’s other living presidents — Barack Obama, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter — have also stayed mum, leaving the country without a trusted voice of political and moral authority who can lay out the seriousness of the charges against Trump.

Democratic former congressman Tim Ryan of Ohio recently launched a national advocacy group called “We the People,” aimed at organizing voters who feel exhausted by partisan politics. He said there is an alternative path for Biden that recognizes the historic moment in America while preserving the integrity of the investigation.

“I’m sure their calculation is that everything gets politicized, but I do think a firm statement just saying ‘Look, regardless of where you stand on tax rate or government spending or education policy, this is so far beyond that conversation. Any direct attempt to undermine the United States of America is a slap in the face of anyone who served the country. We’re better than that,'” Ryan said.

He said Biden could then refer to the statement when asked repeatedly about the unfolding events in the coming months.

Biden could “be firm, be clear and be done,” Ryan said.

(Reporting By Jarrett Renshaw; Editing and additional reporting by Heather Timmons)

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Euro zone lending growth slows further as rate hikes bite

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

BERLIN (Reuters) – Growth in lending to euro zone companies slowed again in July, adding to already mounting evidence that sharply higher interest rates are putting a brake on credit creation and economic growth.

Lending to firms in the 20-nation currency bloc expanded by 2.2% year-on-year after a 3.0% reading a month earlier, while household credit growth slowed to 1.3% from 1.7% in June, according to an ECB report.

The European Central Bank raised interest rates for the ninth time in a row in July, increasing the rate that the ECB pays on banks’ deposits from 3.50% to 3.75%, its highest level since 2000, before euro banknotes and coins had been put into circulation.

At 5.3% in July, inflation remains far above the bank’s target and could take until 2025 to fall back to the 2% target. Preliminary inflation data for August will be published on Thursday, with analysts polled by Reuters forecasting a decline in inflation to 5.1%.

Economic data from PMI surveys in August showed the downturn in euro zone business activity deepened far more than thought this month in a broad-based fall across the region.

Economic growth indicators are now pointing to a contraction in the third quarter, despite what could be a record-breaking tourism season. The weak data is intensifying debate over just how much more the ECB needs to do.

The M3 measure of money supply, seen in the past as a good indicator of future economic expansion, shrank 0.4% in July in a turnaround from growth of 0.6% in June, below expectations for a reading of 0.0%.

(Reporting by Maria Martinez, Editing by Rachel More and Hugh Lawson)

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Japan improves view on exports for first time in three months

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s exports have been “picking up recently”, the government said in its latest monthly economic assessment, its first upward revision since May as easing supply issues boosted auto shipments and demand for semiconductor-related goods bottoms out.

“The economy is recovering moderately”, the Cabinet Office said in its report issued on Monday, keeping the same assessment made in the previous month, but listed China’s troubled economic outlook and global monetary tightening among risks to the Japanese economy.

Close attention should be paid to possible impacts from China’s stagnant real estate market as the country’s economic recovery appears to be pausing, the report said.

In Japan, price hikes and financial volatility are areas of focus, it reiterated.

The report came after Japan’s economy grew at its fastest in more than two years in April-June as brisk auto exports and tourist arrivals helped offset the drag from a slowing post-COVID consumer recovery.

While price hikes dragged down sales of food and consumer electronics, consumer spending on services continued recovering, backing the Cabinet Office’s decision to maintain its view on consumer expenditure as “picking up” in August.

The government expects the economy will continue to recover as the jobs situation and wage environment improve.

(Reporting by Kaori Kaneko; Editing by Devika Syamnath)

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China’s Country Garden says $100 billion Malaysia project on track

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By A. Ananthalakshmi and Yantoultra Ngui

KUALA LUMPUR/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Embattled Chinese developer Country Garden said on Monday its $100-billion project in Malaysia was proceeding as planned and it had sufficient assets, despite concerns about its financial strength amid debt woes.

The comment by China’s largest private developer came after it missed two dollar coupon payments this month totaling $22.5 million, fuelling fears that the country’s property debt crisis could hamper a broader economic recovery and spill overseas.

“Our company’s projects in Malaysia are operating normally and the sales performance is strong,” the developer’s Singapore and Malaysia unit said in a statement, adding that its overall operation in the region was “safe and stable.”

“Various debt management measures are considered to actively resolve the pressure of periodic liquidity, to ensure the company’s long-term future development,” it added, without elaborating.

Banks incorporated in the Southeast Asian nation had limited exposure to Country Garden, Malaysia’s central bank said, adding that its Malaysia unit was servicing loans promptly.

“The current development with Country Garden Holdings Ltd in China is not expected to pose any material impact on the overall property market activity and prices in Malaysia,” Bank Negara Malaysia told Reuters in an email.

The Chinese developer is building its largest overseas development, the massive Forest City project, across four reclaimed islands in the southern Malaysian state of Johor bordering the wealthy city state of Singapore.

Beset by challenges since its 2016 launch, the project, now home to about 9,000 people, saw demand fall sharply following China’s move to stem capital outflows and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Malaysians have also expressed concern at the prospect of a housing glut and environmental damage from a huge land reclamation effort.

The project aims to house 700,000 people by 2035 in a development that includes office towers, malls and schools, besides residential buildings.

The company statement comes after Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the project would be designated a “special financial zone” to attract investment, and help cut the cost of doing business there.

Among the new incentives offered are a special income tax rate of 15% for skilled workers and multiple entry visas, Anwar said in a statement on Friday.

RHB analyst Loong Kok Wen said the new designation would attract companies and residents from Singapore, where costs are considerably higher.

“This move should help to revitalise the Forest City township, which has received lots of negative publicity over the last few years,” the analyst said.

Malaysia’s incentives should be “very positive” for Country Garden, said Steven Leung, Hong Kong-based director of UOB Kay Hian.

The Chinese developer said the incentives from Anwar’s government showed its confidence in the project, which was now in a second phase of development focused on exploring more investment opportunities.

Shares of Country Garden closed flat after having risen as much as 9% on Monday.

Forest City is a joint venture with Esplanade Danga 88, a private Malaysian company backed by the Johor government and the sultan of the state.

(Reporting by A. Ananthalakshmi, additional reporting by Clare Jim in Hong Kong; Editing by Martin Petty, Anne Marie Roantree and Clarence Fernandez)

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Iran says U.S. should explain links to convicted dual national Sharmahd

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

DUBAI (Reuters) -The United States should explain its links to the Iranian-German national Jamshid Sharmahd sentenced to death in Iran, Tehran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday, adding that progress had been made in a prisoner swap deal with Washington.

Nasser Kanaani’s remarks came after a U.S. envoy for Iran, Abram Paley, met on Friday with the family of Sharmahd, who was convicted of heading a pro-monarchist group accused of a deadly bombing in 2008.

Sharmahd, who also has U.S. residency, was sentenced to death by an Iranian Revolutionary court in February on charges of “corruption on earth”.

His daughter has urged Washington not to exclude Sharmahd from the developing prisoner exchange deal between the United States and Iran, under which $6 billion in Iranian funds in South Korea would also be unfrozen.

Iran on Aug. 10 released four imprisoned U.S. citizens into house arrest, where they joined a fifth already under home confinement, in the first step of a deal under which the five would eventually be allowed to leave the Islamic Republic.

Kanaani said progress has been made regarding implementation of the deal, thanking the “constructive role” of neighbouring Gulf Arab states Qatar and Oman in facilitating the agreement.

(Reporting by Dubai newsroom; writing by Parisa Hafezi; editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Mark Heinrich)

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Raimondo: crucial US, China have stable economic relationship

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By David Shepardson

BEIJING (Reuters) -U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo opened talks with Chinese government officials on Monday, saying it is “profoundly important” for the world’s two largest economies to have a stable economic relationship.

Raimondo is looking to boost business ties as U.S. firms have reported increasing challenges with operating in China, while China has sharply criticized U.S. efforts to block its access to advanced semiconductors.

Raimondo said the world expects the United States and China will have a stable economic relationship; the two countries share more than $700 billion in annual trade.

“It’s a complicated relationship. It’s a challenging relationship. We will of course disagree on certain issues,” Raimondo said. “I think we can make progress if we are direct, open and practical.”

Raimondo, who is holding three days of talks with Chinese and business leaders to boost ties, met with Commerce Minister Wang Wentao on Monday for just over two hours.

Wang said US-China economic relations matter not just to the two countries, but also the rest of the world and expressed appreciation of Raimondo’s remarks that she likes trade with China.

He said he was ready to work together to “foster a more favorable policy environment for stronger cooperation between our businesses to bolster bilateral trade and investment in a stable and predictable manner.”

Raimondo said the United States and China have “worked over the summer to establish new information exchanges and working groups that will enable us to have more consistent engagement in our relationship.”

Some Republicans in Congress have criticized the suggestion that the United States would agree to a working group with China on export controls on advanced semiconductor chips.

Raimondo has declared off-limits any discussion of U.S. export curbs aimed at slowing Beijing’s military advances.

“Of course, of matters of national security there is no room to compromise or negotiate,” she said, adding the vast majority did not impact national security concerns.

At an event later on Monday, Raimondo showed off a number of personal care products made by U.S. companies and sold in China to make the case that trade can flourish outside products with national security implications, and said 99% of trade between the two countries is unrelated to export controls.

“No one can argue that health and beauty aids interfere in our national security,” she said. “The plan, and the hope, is that our commercial relationship, if done right, can stabilize the political relationship.”

(Reporting by David Shepardson; Editing by Michael Perry, Clarence Fernandez and Mike Harrison)

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Renault looking at spring 2024 IPO for Ampere, CEO says

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

PARIS (Reuters) – French car maker Renault is looking to list its Ampere electric vehicle business on the stock market in the spring of 2024, CEO Luca de Meo said on Monday.

De Meo told BFM TV that Renault was targeting Nov 1 of this year for the unit to be separated from the rest of the company as a preparatory step in the run-up to the initial public offering.

“So we separate and then we see if we have the right conditions to enter the market,” he said, adding spring 2024 would be the likely window for a listing.

(Reporting by Kate Entringer, writing by Silvia Aloisi; editing by Jason Neely)

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Take Five: Farewell to a bruising August

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) -Bruised bond market investors will seek some solace from U.S. jobs data and European inflation numbers out in the week to come, while China is battling to shore up its markets and economy, and the outlook for grains is uncertain.

Here’s a look at the week ahead in markets from Lewis Krauskopf in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Yoruk Bahceli in Amsterdam, and Nigel Hunt and Dhara Ranasinghe in London.

1/HOT, COLD – OR JUST RIGHT?

    With Treasury yields surging and stocks wobbling, major data in coming days will test the U.S. economy’s temperature as investors worry that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer.

    The August employment report out on Friday takes centre stage: July non-farm payrolls showed the economy added fewer jobs than expected, but solid wage gains and a declining unemployment rate to 3.5% pointed to continued tightness in labor market conditions.

    Other data such as consumer confidence, the state of manufacturing, and inflation, with the latest personal consumption expenditures index is also due.

    The readings will come on the heels of Jerome Powell’s warning at the annual Fed confab in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the world’s top central bank may need to raise interest rates and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hitting their highest since 2007.

2/ THE TOUGH PART

For a year it was a no-brainer that the ECB would be hiking rates to contain high inflation — its key rate rose swiftly to 3.75% from below 0%.

Now comes the tough part as the economy sputters. Data showing a slide in business activity has convinced many traders that a pause in September is likely. Yet Thursday’s flash euro area August inflation number, which follows releases from some member states, could be the decider.

Euro zone consumer prices rose by 5.3% in July versus 5.5% in June, extending a downtrend that started last autumn. The closely-watched underlying gauge was flat at 5.5% but services inflation rose.

Germany’s Bundesbank has warned of a growing risk that consumer price growth gets stuck above 2%. August’s 20% surge in European gas prices suggests disinflation could be slow. It is too soon to rule out a September hike.

3/ PARTING WAYS

Bond investors are keen to leave behind a painful August that saw a rethink of how long rates will stay higher as a strong U.S. economy put the recession fund managers have long pined for even further out of reach.

Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields soared to a 16-year high and real rates, adjusted for future inflation, jumped above 2% for the first time since 2009, unnerving stock markets.

But just as investors were digesting that narrative, a deepening downturn in business activity pointed to more pain ahead for Europe’s stumbling economies, prompting double-digit drops in British and German bond yields in recent days.

Now, benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries are set for their worst monthly performance since February, with yields up nearly 30 basis points in August. But a gloomier outlook has seen smaller rises in German and British yields.

4/ A GIANT SHIP China is taking ever more steps to revitalize drooping equities, a languishing currency, a teetering property market, and a floundering economy – except the big one investors want: bold fiscal stimulus. Recent days have seen more than 100 A-share companies reportedly announcing buybacks at the request of regulators keen to shore up market confidence. The PBOC has set much stronger-than-expected mid-points for the yuan, building a floor above recent 9 1/2-month lows. Real estate is at the centre of the storm – silent Country Garden development sites show the sector’s sorry state. Some developers don’t have the cash to pay workers – or debt obligations. President Xi Jinping told a BRICS summit that China’s economy is a “giant ship” that will “forge ahead.” PMIs on Thursday and Friday will give the latest evidence of any leaks.

5/ BITTER SWEET

El Nino – having emerged for the first time in seven years – is posing a growing threat to global food supplies with the U.S. Climate Prediction Center saying that the weather phenomenon is expected to strengthen through the winter of 2023/24.

India’s monsoon rains have suffered, with this month set to be the driest August since records began in 1901. The world’s most populous country is already concerned about the threat to production of several basic commodities, including rice and sugar.

India’s export ban of non-basmati white rice last month sent global prices sharply higher and the country is expected to prohibit mills from exporting sugar from October.

Agricultural production in other Asian countries, including major palm oil and coffee producer Indonesia, and Thailand – one of the world’s top sugar exporters – is also expected to be hit by dry weather in coming months.

(Compiled by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Sharon Singleton)

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Malaysia’s domestic banks have limited exposure to Country Garden -cbank

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Malaysia’s central bank said on Monday that banks incorporated in the Southeast Asian nation faced limited financial stability risk arising from exposure to China’s largest property developer, Country Garden.

Such banks’ exposure to Country Garden Real Estate Sdn Bhd (CGRE), the developer’s wholly-owned subsidiary in Malaysia, amounted to less than 0.1% of total banking system loans and bonds by June 2023, the bank told Reuters in an email.

“CGRE is servicing their loans promptly and the local group of companies have adequate funds to meet their payment obligations,” Bank Negara Malaysia added.

On Monday, the Chinese firm said its $100-billion project in Malaysia was proceeding as planned and it had sufficient assets, despite concerns over its financial strength.

The Malaysian central bank said it required financial institutions to consider the current and prospective property market conditions in their viability assessment for financing property development and construction projects.

“In the property sector, risks from unsold units from CGRE’s various projects in the country remain manageable,” it added.

“The current development with Country Garden Holdings Ltd in China is not expected to pose any material impact on the overall property market activity and prices in Malaysia,” it said.

The Chinese property developer’s comments came after it missed two dollar coupon payments this month totaling $22.5 million, fuelling fears that the country’s property debt crisis could hamper a broader economic recovery and spill overseas.

Country Garden is building its largest overseas development, the massive Forest City project, across four reclaimed islands in the southern Malaysian state of Johor bordering the wealthy city state of Singapore.

But the project, now home to about 9,000 people, has faced challenges since its 2016 launch, seeing demand fall sharply following China’s move to stem capital outflows and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Last week Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said the project would be designated a “special financial zone” to attract investment, and help cut the cost of doing business there.

(Reporting by Yantoultra Ngui; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

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Japan suspends H-IIA rocket launch for moonshot because of strong winds

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By Kantaro Komiya and Rocky Swift

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s space agency suspended a planned launch on Monday of a rocket carrying what would be the country’s first spacecraft to land on the moon, with operator Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) citing high winds.

Although the H-IIA rocket, the Japanese flagship launch vehicle, has a 98% launch success rate, unsuitable wind conditions in the upper atmosphere forced a suspension 27 minutes before the planned liftoff.

“High-altitude winds hit our constraint for a launch… which had been set to ensure no impact from debris falling outside of pre-warned areas,” said MHI H-IIA launch unit chief Tatsuru Tokunaga.

Strong winds of nearly 108 kph (67 mph) were observed at an altitude of 5,000-15,000 metres (16400-49200 ft), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) safety manager Michio Kawakami said. Multiple typhoons around Japan could have affected the wind conditions, he added.

The new launch date has not been decided, but will be no sooner than Thursday because of necessary processes such as re-fuelling, Tokunaga said. MHI and JAXA have said a launch could take place as late as Sept. 15.

The rocket was to be launched from JAXA’s Tanegashima Space Center in southern Japan on Monday morning; it had already been postponed twice since last week because of bad weather. It will mark the 47th H-IIA Japan has launched.

‘MOON SNIPER’ MISSION

The rocket is carrying JAXA’s Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (SLIM), which would be the first Japanese spacecraft to land on the moon. Tokyo-based startup ispace’s Hakuto-R Mission 1 lander crashed on the lunar surface in April.

JAXA was planning to start SLIM’s landing from lunar orbit in January-February 2024 after Monday’s launch, aiming to follow the success of India’s Chandrayaan-3 moon exploration mission this month.

Dubbed the “moon sniper”, the SLIM mission seeks to achieve a high-precision landing within 100 metres of its target on the moon’s surface – a technological leap from conventional lunar-landing accuracy of several kilometres, according to JAXA.

The rocket is also carrying an X-Ray Imaging and Spectroscopy Mission (XRISM) satellite, a joint project of JAXA, NASA and the European Space Agency.

H-IIA, jointly developed by JAXA and MHI, has been Japan’s flagship space launch vehicle, with 45 successful launches in 46 tries since 2001. However, after JAXA’s new medium-lift H3 rocket failed on its debut in March, the agency postponed the launch of H-IIA No. 47 for several months to investigate the cause.

Despite its goal to send astronauts on the lunar surface in the late 2020s, Japan’s space missions have faced recent setbacks, with the launch failure of the Epsilon small rocket in October 2022, followed by an engine explosion during a test last month.

(This story has been refiled to restore a deleted ‘a’ in paragraph 1)

(Reporting by Kantaro Komiya and Rocky Swift; Editing by Kim Coghill and Gerry Doyle)

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China new home prices growth likely flat in 2023, dragging on economy – Reuters poll

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s new home prices will likely show no growth this year, according to a Reuters poll, highlighting the intense pressure in the crisis-hit property sector that has put a choke-hold on the economy and left policymakers in a scramble to restore confidence.

The expected 0% year-on-year growth in home prices compared with a 1.4% gain tipped in the previous forecast in May, a Reuters poll of 12 economists conducted from Aug. 16-25 showed.

Confidence in the real estate sector, which accounts for a quarter of China’s economy, suffered last year after many homebuyers threatened to stop repaying mortgages because developers couldn’t build pre-sold housing projects due to strapped liquidity and strict COVID-19 restrictions.

“The slowdown of China’s economic recovery and conservative consumption by residents shows that property market participants’ confidence has not yet recovered, said Wang Xingping, senior analyst at Fitch Bohua.

Authorities have introduced several measures over the past year to prop up the sector, including smaller down payments, allowing bigger mortgages and cuts in mortgage rates. However, confidence remains low, partly due to persistent liquidity problems among property developers as well as a broader slowdown in the economy.

Property investment this year is expected to fall 7.7% year-on-year, much faster than the 4.2% drop forecast in the May poll, while home sales measured by floor area is expected to decline 5.0% in annual terms in 2023 from a gain of 2.7% in the previous poll.

The world’s second-biggest economy has seen a rapid loss in momentum since the second quarter following the initial post-COVID rebound, dragged down by weak demand at home and abroad, rising unemployment and property sector woes.

“It is estimated that every one percentage point decline in property investment may drag down the GDP growth rate by 0.1 percentage points,” said analyst Ma Hong at Zhixin Investment Research Institute.

China observers are sceptical that the property sector could turn a corner in the near term despite Beijing’s support measures.

Three Chinese ministries issued detailed rules on Friday allowing local governments to scrap the rule of “no mortgage record” for determining the status of “first-home buyers”.

The biggest cities are expected to relax property curbs in some suburbs, “but it is hardly going to save the whole real estate sector from a downward spiral,” said Gao Yuhong, analyst at CSCI Pengyuan Credit Rating Limited.

Seven of 12 economists see an improvement in purchasing affordability for first time homebuyers over the coming year.

However, ANZ’s economist Xing Zhaopeng said youth employment will be a big issue to first home purchasing.

The government has suspended publishing data on youth unemployment, which has hit record highs in what analysts say is partly a symptom of regulatory crackdowns on big employers in real estate and other industries.

(For other stories from the Reuters quarterly housing market polls: )

(Reporting by Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; Additional reporting by Shuyan Wang; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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Russia said it shoots down another Ukrainian drone near Moscow

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) – Russia said it shot down a Ukrainian drone flying towards Moscow in the early hours of Monday in an incident that once again briefly disrupted flights over the capital.

Authorities have reported more than a dozen attempted drone attacks on Moscow within the past month, a number of which have forced temporary airport closures.

The drones appear to be probing Moscow’s air defences from different angles, with Monday’s brought down in the Lyubertsy region to the southeast of the capital, according to the defence ministry.

State aviation agency Rosaviatsia said three airports temporarily restricted flights but later returned to normal operation.

Moscow reported the first drone attacks on the capital in early May, when two were fired at the Kremlin without causing damage. Since then they have become a frequent occurrence.

Most have been intercepted by Russian air defences, but several have hit buildings in a business district of the capital.

Ukraine hardly ever takes responsibility for strikes on Russian territory, though officials have often expressed satisfaction over them.

(Reporting by Reuters, writing by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Mark Heinrich)

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Head of France’s Medef business lobby: seeing some signs of business slowdown

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

PARIS (Reuters) – There are signs of a slowdown in business activity in France and interest rates are also weighing on businesses, Patrick Martin, the head of France’s Medef business lobby group, said on Monday.

France’s economic growth was resilient in the second quarter, Martin told France 2 TV, but he added that there were nevertheless indications of slower activity.

“But we see things are slowing down, investment is slowing down, consumption is slowing down” he said.

“The issue of high interest rates is also weighing on business activity”, he added.

Recent business surveys showed that the euro zone’s second-largest economy is being dragged down by a contraction in the country’s dominant services sector while industrial output has been ailing for months.

In this context, France is facing additional risks if the government does not manage to keep up with large-scale investment schemes seen in rivalling economies, Martin said, citing the United States and Germany in particular.

Data published in July showed that France’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.5% in the second quarter, beating forecasts.

(Reporting by Tassilo Hummel; Editing by Sudip Kar-Gupta)

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Analysis-China-linked assets squeezed as slowdown ripples across markets

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By Tom Westbrook and Dhara Ranasinghe

SINGAPORE/LONDON (Reuters) – Investors looking for clues about the state of China’s economy beyond official data are seeing red warnings flash across a range of informal gauges, prompting many to back out of global assets exposed to the slowdown.

The selling is sucking the wind out of stock markets from London to Bangkok and weighing on China proxies from the Australian dollar to New Zealand dairy prices and shares from luxury goods giant LVMH to miner BHP and casino Las Vegas Sands.

As the post-pandemic period has failed to bring a sustained recovery in consumer spending, or to thaw the near-frozen property market, most analysts now figure the world’s second-largest economy is going to miss its 5% growth target this year.

Beneath the headlines, investors are even gloomier with higher-frequency and more arcane data from a shrinking current account surplus to ballooning deposits and soft surveys pointing to a deep-seated confidence problem.

“It’s pretty weak,” said Sat Duhra, a portfolio manager at Janus Henderson who devises a macro score for countries by tracking seven factors including PMI surveys, real exchange rates, current accounts, growth estimates and liquidity.

“PMIs have been weak, GDP is being revised downward. It’s a tricky situation,” he said. “And I don’t see any point, at this point, in taking a bullish view on China when all of these things are going on.”

His fund invests in China, but away from economically sensitive sectors such as banks, property or industrials.

Beyond China, which is the largest trading partner of most of its neighbours and other big economies, souring demand is beginning to take a toll.

New Zealand’s Fonterra, the world’s biggest dairy exporter, has cut its farm gate milk price forecast twice in a month citing “reduced demand from key importing regions.” It previously noted that the largest slowdown was in China.

Last week BHP Group posted its weakest annual profit in three years and manganese-focused spinoff South32 said profit fell by nearly two thirds. New Zealand’s a2 Milk Co warned of weak growth in China’s infant formula market.

Shares of BHP, S32 and a2 fell.

Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors in London, sees the slowdown biting in Europe, where investors tend to connect the fortunes of German manufacturers with the those of their Chinese customers.

“We have become a bit more gloomy on Europe,” she said, noting China also poses a risk to U.S. equities.

RETREAT

This year’s run of bad indicators has wrong-footed investors, who had been positioning for companies such as BHP and currencies such as the Australian dollar and Thai baht to rally as China emerged from the COVID-19 pandemic in a blaze of spending.

Instead, Chinese visitors to top destination Thailand, for example, are barely a third of pre-pandemic levels, the baht is stalled and in Asia only Hong Kong’s Hang Seng has fallen further than Thai stocks’ 6.5% drop.

Even in Japan, the stock market success story of the year so far, portfolio manager Zuhair Khan at UBP Investments says he’s shorting or avoiding companies reliant on China sales.

The scale of the problem, with data showing consumer and producer prices falling and youth unemployment running over 20%, indicates an aggressive policy response is needed, and quickly, he said, something that is so far yet to arrive.

To be sure, although they too have lately retreated, stocks of companies such as casino-operator Las Vegas Sands and luxury-goods seller LVMH are up 11% and 16%, respectively, this year, against a 10% gain for world stocks, and some investors remain bullish.

“We expect group travel to resume in late 2023 and support Chinese spend on luxury goods globally,” said Prashant Bhayani, Asia chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management.

But it’s now a waiting game for valuations to reflect more realistic assumptions.

“The China reopening as a thematic has played out to some extent. However, I think more importantly, it has fallen short of initial expectations,” said Jagdeep Ghuman, a portfolio manager for U.S. asset manager Nuveen.

“It’s (now) very much on a case by case basis, driven by valuations. Overall we have seen that reset of expectations play out in the market and so there has been volatility in the shares of these companies.”

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook and Rae Wee in Singapore, Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Summer Zhen and Xie Yu in Hong Kong. Editing by Sam Holmes)

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Analysis-After Turkey’s giant rate hike, foreign investors mull return

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By Nevzat Devranoglu and Karin Strohecker

ANKARA/LONDON (Reuters) – Turkey’s latest massive interest rate hike has caught the attention of long-sceptical foreign investors who say they could return to Turkish assets if authorities continue to demonstrate that a return to orthodox monetary policy is underway.

The lira rallied as much as 7% on Thursday after the central bank shocked the market by lifting its key rate by 750 basis points to 25% – three times the size of the expected move.

Turkey’s top officials say that they plan to take two more vital steps to reverse a years-long exodus of foreign investment as well: they will publish a comprehensive economic programme next month that will reduce uncertainties; and they will begin holding meetings with investors abroad.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek will kick off the investor roadshow on Sept. 19 at Goldman Sachs headquarters in New York, Reuters reported on Friday.

Though the tide may be shifting, persuading investors will not be easy: Foreigners had all but abandoned Turkey over the last five years of President Tayyip Erdogan’s unorthodox and often erratic policies, which included slashing interest rates in the face of soaring inflation.

Yet five foreign investors told Reuters that this week’s rate hike signalled a new independence among policymakers who are serious about addressing unrelenting pressure on the currency and reining in inflation expectations.

“It feels like they are correcting the mistakes they made with their first rate hike decisions,” said Viktor Szabo, portfolio manager at abrdn in London. “And it is a sign that the pressure continued on the currency.”

Ola El-Shawarby, deputy portfolio manager for Emerging Markets Equity Strategy at Van Eck, said: “We have some exposure and we are getting more comfortable with the overall picture so we are getting more constructive.”

    “The more proof we get of the return to orthodoxy the more likely we are to revisit these investments,” she said.

ERDOGAN QUESTION

Faced with badly depleted FX reserves and other economic strains, Erdogan, fresh from winning re-election in May, appointed Simsek and picked as central bank governor former Wall Street banker Hafize Gaye Erkan – the first woman to run the central bank – to turn things around.

Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz told bankers that next month’s “medium-term programme” will detail a transition to increased economic and financial predictability and include three-year macro forecasts. The investor roadshow will also accelerate, he added.

Simsek has stressed his team has political support for its plan, which should see inflation begin to cool around May of next year.

Erdogan, who has fired four central bank chiefs in four years, has said little about the rate hikes.

“They will have to raise policy rates further in this cycle to have a lasting effect on international investors,” said Blaise Antin, head of EM sovereign research at asset manager TCW in Los Angeles.

“The question is whether they have Erdogan’s green light to keep going.”

The central bank said on Thursday it will hike rates more as needed and JPMorgan predicted they will hit 35% by year-end.

TENTATIVE STEPS

With inflation seen rising to near 60% by the end of the year from almost 48% last month, the rate hikes partly narrow the gap.

Though Turkey’s international bonds are widely held and form part of key indexes, the country has struggled to lure foreign investors back into its domestic bond markets after a series of lira crises and de facto capital controls.

Foreigners hold less than 1% of Turkish bonds, down from 10% in 2019 and 20% in 2015, official data shows. Over the last three months, bonds saw only $110.5 million in cumulative foreign inflows, while stocks saw a rush of $1.7 billion.

Turkish stock, Eurobond and CDS markets are more attractive targets this year and next, especially after the rate hike, investors and officials say. New investments from Gulf states have helped to buy time and refresh FX reserves.

“Ultimately for investors the end rate matters – but it is more that the central bank is ready to act when needed,” said Kaan Nazli, portfolio manager at asset manager Neuberger Berman in London. “But seeing that change is a positive thing.”

Aside from the combined 1,650 basis points in monetary tightening since June, there are other signs of lasting change. Authorities have raised taxes to limit budget deficits, cooled domestic demand, begun rolling back a costly depreciation-protected deposit scheme, and raised FX reserves by $20 billion to head off any possible current account deficit crisis.

In an interview with newspaper Yeni Safak, Simsek said Turkey held huge promise for foreign investors as long as “we follow rules-based policies in line with world norms.”

After meetings in New York and at the United Nations – which Erdogan is also expected to attend – Simsek listed plans for trips to London and an International Monetary Fund event in Morocco, as well as other meetings in Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong by the end of the year.

(Additional reporting by Jonathan Spicer in Istanbul and Marc Jones and Jorgelina do Rosario in London; Writing by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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Indonesia central bank believes new certificates will offer ‘very attractive’ yields

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

By Stefanno Sulaiman

JAKARTA (Reuters) – New certificates being introduced by Bank Indonesia for sale next month are expected to offer “very attractive” yields for foreign investors, an official said on Monday, generating inflows to help keep liquidity supportive for economic growth.

Last week, the central bank announced that it would hold twice weekly auctions of Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities (SRBI), using BI’s holdings of government bonds as underlying assets, from Sept 15.

The instrument was intended to attract capital inflows as well as mop-up excess rupiah liquidity in the domestic financial market, and provide some stability for the rupiah currency at a time when Indonesia’s current account and balance of payments have swung into deficit.

Analysts have said the success of the SRBI would depend on what return they offer. On Monday, Edi Susianto, Bank Indonesia’s (BI) head of monetary management, provided some key details.

BI would auction 6-, 9- and 12-month certificates every Wednesday and Friday and they would carry similar returns to rates offered for reverse repurchase (RR) of government bonds, Edi told a press conference.

At its last auction on Aug. 18, BI sold 6-, 9-, and 12-month RR contracts with yields of 6.31208%, 6.39517% and 6.41884%, respectively.

“We think these interest rates are very attractive,” Edi said. “Of course we think that fundamentally Indonesia is still seen as positive as a place for investment.”

He declined to provide guidance on how much SRBI the central bank would sell, but said domestic liquidity would be kept “not too tight”, but would be supportive for economic growth, without being excessive.

The SRBI would replace BI’s “Operation Twist” in the bond market, where the central bank had been selling its short-term government bonds and vowing to buy long-term bonds whenever yields rise. BI would also stop offering RR of government bonds with similar tenures.

The SRBI could later be expanded to shorter tenures starting from one week and the auction frequency could also be increased, Edi said.

“The impact of SRBI on inflows will ultimately depend on the return being offered, but BI likely sees this as a new instrument that could potentially help manage IDR amidst the market volatility,” BofA Global Research economists wrote in a note, highlighting that Indonesia’s trade surplus has been shrinking and the current account has returned to a small deficit.

Handy Yunianto, Mandiri Securities’ head of fixed income, said the SRBI auctions would provided investors with an alternative as the government reduces its bond sales.

(Reporting by Stefanno Sulaiman; Additional reporting by Fransiska Nangoy; Writing by Gayatri Suroyo; Editing by Martin Petty & Simon Cameron-Moore)

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Business News

South Korea clears path for Hyundai Motor strike -union

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

SEOUL (Reuters) – Hyundai Motor’s unionised workers have won permission to go on strike, the union said on Monday, raising the probability of the company’s first wage-related industrial action in five years.

The National Labor Relations Commission, a South Korean government organisation that handles labour disputes, cleared the way for strike action at the country’s top car maker, the Hyundai Motor union said in a statement.

The commission recognised large differences in positions between the company’s management and union, Yonhap News Agency said on Monday. A commission spokesperson was not available for comment.

The union said it would gather on Wednesday to decide what the next move would be. Members had voted on Friday to walk out unless the company accepted demands for wage increases and an extension of the retirement age.

Union officials have said they would continue talks with management regardless.

If the strike goes forward, it would be the first such action in five years related to wage negotiations at Hyundai Motor and could disrupt delivery of some popular vehicles. Hyundai has been struggling to ramp up production because of prolonged component shortages.

The strike could cause up to 1 trillion won ($755.37 million) in operating losses, and put pressure on domestic sales as there is little backlog to sell, KB Securities said in a research note on Monday.

($1 = 1,323.8600 won)

(Reporting by Ju-min Park and Joyce Lee; Editing by Gerry Doyle)

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US and World News

Tropical Storm Idalia expected to hit Florida as hurricane

by Reuters August 28, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) -Tropical Storm Idalia could strengthen into a hurricane on Monday, bringing high winds and storm surges to Cuba and Florida later this week.

The storm has sustained winds of 60 mph (95 kph) and could reach Category 2 strength with sustained winds of 96 to 110 mph when it is forecast to make landfall in Florida on Wednesday, according to Governor Ron DeSantis.

The governor said the hurricane could make landfall in northern Florida’s Big Bend area – where the panhandle transitions into the peninsula.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said on Sunday that the storm is currently near the Yucatan Channel about 145 miles (235 km) south of the western tip of Cuba.

Idalia could cause scattered flash and urban flooding from heavy rains along parts of Florida’s west coast, the Panhandle and southern Georgia late Tuesday night through Wednesday, the Miami-based weather forecaster said.

“Idalia is likely to be near or at major hurricane intensity when it reaches the Gulf coast of Florida,” the NHC added.

DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 33 Florida counties on Saturday.

“If you are in the path of this storm, you should expect power outages, so please prepare for that,” DeSantis said during a Sunday briefing with Florida’s Division of Emergency Management.

The governor said power company workers were preparing ahead of the storm and that 1,100 members of the National Guard were mobilized with 2,400 high-water vehicles and a dozen aircraft for rescue and recovery efforts.

Duke Energy is closely monitoring the approach of Idalia and preparing crews and equipment to respond if customers lose power.

President Joe Biden had been briefed about Idalia’s forecast path and will be kept up to date as the storm moves, the White House said on Sunday.

(Reporting by Baranjot Kaur and Deep Vakil in Bengaluru, Maria Caspani in New York, and Katharine Jackson and Trevor Hunnicutt in Washington; Editing by Lisa Shumaker and Lincoln Feast)

August 28, 2023 0 comments
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