FAIRFAX COUNTY, VA – On Richmond Hwy, in the 7700 block, a shooting incident has been reported this weekend.
A woman was gravely injured and has since been taken to a hospital for treatment.
All individuals involved in the incident have been detained by the police.
The Fairfax County Police Department advises residents and passersby to avoid the vicinity to facilitate the ongoing investigation.
They are also urging anyone with pertinent information to dial 911.
MIDDLETOWN, NY – An altercation on Saturday morning resulted in a man being shot by police.
Around 6:30 a.m., officers were summoned to the 100 block of Liberty Street after reports emerged of a man, identified as 52-year-old Winston Tate, causing a disturbance by yelling and breaking glass.
Upon the officer’s arrival, Tate, armed with a blunt object, attacked, causing both to fall to the ground.
During the ensuing scuffle, the officer’s firearm was discharged. Tate, who sustained gunshot injuries, was subsequently arrested and transported to a nearby hospital.
He remains in serious but stable condition. Charges against Tate include criminal attempt to commit assault, assault on public safety personnel, and interfering with police.
CAMBRIDGE, MD – Bray’Vion Demby, a 21-year-old local, was apprehended on Tuesday, August 2, around 1:38 pm.
CPD Officers had observed him operating a black motorized scooter erratically on School House Lane and Bethel St.
After a brief evasion, officers located him on the 600 block of School House Lane.
Demby was arrested and faces multiple charges.
The charges include obstructing and hindering, failure to display license, and driving without a license, among others.
By Howard Schneider
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Pessimists watching the Federal Reserve battle inflation have focused on the so-called “last-mile” problem, convinced a full return to the U.S. central bank’s 2% inflation target will require a recession and significant job losses to cool ongoing price rises.
History is on their side, with academic studies and other research concluding the levels of inflation seen over the last two years can’t be fixed without a downturn, and prominent economists projecting a jump in the U.S. unemployment rate to between 5% and 10% from the current 3.5% – with millions out of work – might be the price that’s paid.
As a counterpoint, however, Brent Meyer, the Atlanta Fed’s assistant vice president and chief inflation watcher, suggests in a new analysis that the road to 2% inflation may in fact be smooth, rather than filled with the setbacks and difficult choices many Fed officials have said they expect.
It’s true that some of the main headline price measures have been sticky. The personal consumption expenditures price index stripped of food and energy was stuck in the comparatively high 4.6%-4.7% range for six months before finally falling in June to 4.1%, a fact some policymakers took as evidence the return to the Fed’s target would be slow.
But the annual headline numbers can mask developing trends, and Meyer said the just-released consumer price index report for July showed the breadth of inflation narrowing and its pace moderating in ways he felt could continue.
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By his calculation, for example, a rising share of goods, currently about 18.3% of the CPI “basket,” is now in what he calls an inflation “sweet spot,” with prices increasing between 1% and 3%. Assuming that shelter cost inflation continues to fall, the share of goods where prices are rising more than 5%, presently about 38% of the basket, could be more than halved.
He added that inflation for services less energy and shelter costs, known as the “supercore” and an area of particular concern for the Fed, has by his calculation been increasing over the last three months at just a 2% annual rate. Since CPI inflation tends to be faster than the PCE measures that the Fed uses to set its inflation target, that means one important area of policymaker focus may have dipped below target already.
If that continues, “it’s possible that we could cover that last mile fairly quickly,” Meyer wrote.
RENTS TO THE RESCUE?
Meyer is not alone among economists who see some positive inflation trends in the making.
The cost of shelter, for example, accounts for about a third of the CPI, and after playing a central role in driving inflation higher early in the coronavirus pandemic it is now expected to help moderate it.
The behavior of the single-family housing market has in some ways beat expectations. Home price indices are rising after only a brief period of decline despite a jump in mortgage rates fueled by the Fed’s interest rate hikes since March 2022. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to more than 7% last October and was just under that level in the latest week. But the pace of increase pales against the double-digit gains in 2021, and the inflation rate for rental housing has also slowed.
Because of how the inflation indices are assembled, it takes time for those changes to appear in the headline numbers. A recent study by San Francisco Fed economists, using real-time housing and rent data from companies like Zillow, projected “a sharp turnaround in shelter inflation” through late next year.
Compared with increases running as high as 8% annually, the pace of shelter inflation should fall below 5%, and possibly even turn negative, they estimated, “with important implications for the behavior of overall inflation.”
Two versions of the San Francisco estimates show shelter inflation hitting 0% next year, well below the 3%-to-4% range that Meyer said could help the Fed traverse its last inflation mile more quickly.
BACK TO NORMAL?
Other aspects of the economy may also be snapping into place, a possible late-arriving validation of the Fed’s initial expectation that rising inflation in 2021 would prove “transitory.”
Supply chain pressures have eased, and as that has happened changes in goods prices have also slowed and helped pull down the headline inflation number.
The road may not be fully clear. Data released on Friday showed the prices paid by producers in July rose more than expected, which may mean core PCE will go up again in July from the 4.1% reading in June. That would be a blow for the many Fed officials who want to see steady declines in the main inflation indicators before putting further rate increases on hold.
The recent producer price index report “offers the hawkish wing of the Fed more ammunition to advocate for another rate hike,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
But just as Fed officials were surprised by the rapid run-up of inflation beginning in 2021, they’ve been surprised at the economy’s resilience to the rapid run-up of interest rates they’ve engineered, and surprised at the progress they have made on inflation so far without clear damage to the job market or economic output.
Fed officials like Governor Christopher Waller have sketched out theoretical reasons for why that could continue, arguing that pandemic-era closures created so many extreme pressures in the economy that a simple return to normal – in the demand for workers, for example – could allow prices to cool without much harm to employment or economic growth.
Additionally, staff economists at the Richmond Fed last week said the central bank is in “uncharted” territory historically given the progress made in lowering inflation without any significant rise in unemployment.
Looking at past Fed interest rate cycles, they noted that since the 1980s the unemployment rate has been less volatile through each one – good news for officials hoping they can pull inflation back to target without a heavy price paid by workers.
Can it continue?
Meyer said it may be “overly optimistic” to expect a trouble-free return to the 2% target.
Still, “the underlying details … point to good news.”
(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
A bruising August for bonds continues to unsettle world markets deep into summer holiday season, with China’s ailing property sector whacking stocks there on Monday and a buoyant dollar hitting many currencies – especially Russia’s rouble.
With seasonal trading volumes so thin and the events and data diary bare today at least, there’s a danger of over-interpreting recent market developments.
But the backup in long-term U.S. bond yields over the past couple of weeks despite relatively unchanged expectations for Federal Reserve policy moves has clearly unsettled investors.
The much-criticised, surprise move by credit firm Fitch to remove the United States’ AAA sovereign debt rating on Aug. 1 and a welter of new Treasury bond and bill sales in the pipeline were cited as triggers for this month’s yield pop. But there are other factors at play.
Although 2-year Treasury yields remain below 5% and are lower than they were at midyear, 10-year Treasury yields continue to probe 9-month highs around 4.20% and the yield curve has disinverted by some 20 basis points this month as a result.
The bond hit came despite more positive consumer price inflation news last week, signs of household inflation expectations ebbing to their lowest in more than two years and Goldman Sachs on Monday forecasting the first Fed rate cuts by the middle of 2024.
Interest rate futures, meantime, continue to assume the Fed is done with rate hikes – pricing about a one-in three chance of a further hike by year-end and a cut from here by May.
But aside from debt supply concerns, bonds may be unnerved by a range of factors including a pop in energy prices and a fading of disinflationary annual base effects there.
A rethink and repositioning of the overwhelming global investor overweight in bonds since the start of the year may also be an issue, while there will be concern too about how the increasingly rancorous bilateral U.S.-China investment restrictions play out.
If the tit-for-tat on portfolio flows between the two economic superpowers ratchets up, there may be speculation about the stability of China’s massive U.S. Treasury and mortgage bond holdings.
Japan’s recent monetary policy tweak may also have had some backwash on Treasury bond investments, but the yen continues to slide and briefly hit a 2023 low on Monday as the bond yield gap between Japan and the United States widens.
Briefly topping 145 yen again, the dollar was pumped up across the exchanges and its main index hit the highest in more than a month. The dollar soared against Russia’s rouble, vaulting 100 roubles for the first time since shortly after the Ukraine invasion last year and drawing criticism from the Kremlin of its central bank’s overly loose monetary policy.
It was another bad start to the week for Shanghai and Hong Kong shares – both of which fell heavily again as property giant Country Garden’s debt problems deepened, its onshore bonds were suspended and its shares plunged 16% to a record low. Asia stocks were generally lower too.
China’s yuan hit its lowest since June as traders look to a possible easing of 1-year interest rates on Tuesday.
But Wall St futures and European bourses were higher and U.S. investors looked to a big week for assessing retail activity, with national retail sales data for July due on Tuesday and second-quarter earnings due from the big retailers.
Events to watch for on Monday:
* U.S. Treasury auctions 3-, 6-month bills
(By Mike Dolan, editing by XXXX [email protected]. Twitter: @reutersMikeD)
CUMBERLAND, MD – Antonio Maurice Smith, 33, of Cumberland was taken into custody by the Cumberland Police Department on Friday.
Smith was arrested on two bench warrants, which were issued due to his failure to comply with charges that included second-degree assault, resisting arrest, failure to obey, disturbing the peace, and theft.
Furthermore, Smith faced three additional bench warrants for violating a peace order. Upon his arrest, it was also discovered that Smith had an outstanding warrant from Baltimore City.
The original charges leading to the issuance of the bench warrants spanned a range of offenses, from assault to theft. Smith was transported to the Allegany County Detention Center following his arrest. He is currently held there with no preset bond.
The Cumberland Police Department asked anyone with further information regarding these incidents to come forward.
PHILADELPHIA, PA – A shooting was reported at 2900 Ruth Street on the highway around 1:48 a.m. on Sunday.
A 19-year-old male was found with a gunshot wound on his left leg and is currently in stable condition.
No arrests have been made, and no weapons were recovered at the scene.
The motive behind the shooting remains unclear. A suspect, described as a Black male wearing all-black clothing, a black ski mask, and riding a scooter was reported to be involved.
The Shooting Investigation Group has taken over, and the case remains active.
LONG BRANCH, NJ – The Marine Mammal Stranding Center is investigating the death of a humpback whale that washed ashore in Long Branch, NJ, on August 12, 2023. The agency says the incident follows a pattern connected to an ongoing unusual mortality event (UME) that began in 2016, rather than to offshore sonar mapping being done by Orsted.
Orsted, a company seeking to build a massive wind farm off the coast of New Jersey, has been conducting offshore sonar mapping in the area. However, MMSC’s statement on Sunday eludes that the recent whale death is unrelated to these activities.
The floating humpback whale carcass was secured with the support of Atlantic Marine Conservation Society (AMSEAS), and local officials are developing plans for a necropsy (animal autopsy).
The examination will include measurements, photographs, and biological samples to understand more about the whale’s physiology and determine the factors contributing to its death.
In a statement released by MMSC, they announced:
“On Saturday, August 12, 2023, Marine Mammal Stranding Center (MMSC) was notified of a floating humpback whale carcass washing ashore in Long Branch, NJ. MMSC – with the support of Atlantic Marine Conservation Society (AMSEAS) – is working with local officials to secure the animal and develop plans for a necropsy (animal autopsy).
Information gathered through this examination will include measurements, photographs, and biological samples collected to learn more about the whale’s physiology and document any factors that may have contributed to the animal’s death.”
MMSC reminds residents concerned over the increase in whale deaths in the past year that since 2016, NOAA Fisheries has been actively investigating the UME for humpback whales in the North Atlantic. The data from this extensive investigation can be found on NOAA’s website and viewed through an interactive map. For those interested in the process, NOAA also provides frequently asked questions about necropsies on marine mammals.
NEW YORK CITY, NY – The New York City Police Department is actively seeking public assistance in locating an individual involved in an assault incident.
The event occurred on Sunday, August 6, at around 3:55 a.m. at the intersection of Jerome Avenue and East Bedford Park Boulevard.
The victim, a 32-year-old male working as a food vendor, entered into a verbal dispute with an unknown person. This disagreement escalated into a physical altercation, during which the vendor was slashed several times on his arms and back.
The suspect was last seen heading north on Jerome Avenue, driving a dark-colored vehicle. The injured vendor was taken to Saint Barnabas Hospital and is currently in stable condition.
The suspect is described as a male, around 6’ in height, having a dark complexion, and of medium build. He was seen wearing a black hat, a dark hooded sweatshirt, dark pants, and black sneakers.
CUMBERLAND, MD – The Cumberland Police Department arrested 24-year-old Asia Broadway IV of Cresaptown on Friday, on charges stemming from a vehicular accident that took place two days prior.
On the day of the incident, officers were dispatched to Baltimore Avenue after reports of a single-vehicle accident. Allegany County dispatch was informed that the driver had left the scene before officers’ arrival.
Upon further investigation, officers located Mr. Broadway IV near Marion Street. Although initially claiming that his girlfriend was the driver, evidence at the accident scene pointed towards Broadway IV as the vehicle’s operator. The investigation also revealed that Broadway IV lacked a valid driver’s license. He later confessed to fleeing the crash site to avoid receiving a citation.
Following the accident, he was transported to a nearby hospital for injuries sustained during the crash. An arrest warrant was promptly issued. When officers arrested him on Friday, Mr. Broadway IV admitted to possessing Controlled Dangerous Substances (CDS).
A subsequent search led to the discovery of suspected Fentanyl capsules on his person. He is currently held without bond at the Allegany County Detention Center.
By Jack Queen
(Reuters) -Lawyers for Hunter Biden said in a late Sunday court filing that prosecutors reneged on a plea deal that would have resolved tax and firearms charges against the U.S. president’s son as his father seeks reelection.
Delaware federal prosecutors said on Friday that Hunter Biden may be headed for a criminal trial after plea negotiations broke down.
U.S. District Judge Maryellen Noreika rejected a proposed plea deal in July, raising concerns over its legality and the scope of immunity it offered Hunter Biden.
Under that proposed arrangement, Hunter Biden would have pleaded guilty to not paying taxes on $1.5 million in income between 2017 and 2018 and entered into a separate deferred prosecution agreement for illegally owning a firearm while using drugs, a felony.
The case has become a political lightning rod as Republicans in Congress raise the possibility of impeaching Biden over his son’s business dealings and accuse the Department of Justice of giving him a “sweetheart deal.”
U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland has denied Republican accusations of favoritism. On Friday, he elevated Delaware U.S. Attorney David Weiss, an appointee of former President Donald Trump who has been investigating the case since 2019, to special counsel status, which gives him additional authority.
If the case goes to trial, the president would be campaigning for reelection in November 2024, likely against former president Donald Trump, as his son faces criminal prosecution.
Trump, a Republican, faces three criminal trials of his own next year.
(Reporting by Abinaya Vijayaraghavan in Bengaluru and Jack Queen in New York; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman, Robert Birsel)
(Reuters) – Retail investors who lost money when Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS in March plan to file a lawsuit challenging the buyout, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
The Swiss Investor Protection Association plans to file the claim in Zurich’s commercial court on Monday on behalf of about 500 Credit Suisse equity investors, the newspaper said.
(Reporting by Gokul Pisharody in Bengaluru; Editing by William Mallard)
By Joseph Ax
(Reuters) – A Georgia prosecutor probing whether Donald Trump and his allies illegally sought to overturn the state’s 2020 election results is expected to seek an indictment from a grand jury next week.
Two witnesses who previously received subpoenas confirmed on Saturday that they have been told to appear before a grand jury in Atlanta on Tuesday, the clearest indication yet that Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis will lay out her case to the jury after more than two years of investigating.
Geoff Duncan, the state’s former lieutenant governor, told CNN that he had been asked to testify on Tuesday.
“I’ll certainly answer whatever questions are put in front of me,” said Duncan, a Republican who has criticized Trump’s false conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.
An independent journalist, George Chidi, said in a post on X, the site formerly known as Twitter, that he had also been instructed to appear on Tuesday.
A spokesperson for Willis’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday. She has already indicated she would seek charges by the end of next week, and security measures have visibly increased around the county courthouse in recent weeks.
If Trump is charged in Georgia, it would mark his fourth indictment in less than five months, and the second to arise from his efforts to overturn Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. He was charged earlier this month in Washington federal court with orchestrating a multistate conspiracy to reverse the election results.
Special Counsel Jack Smith, who brought the Washington case, has also charged Trump separately in Florida with illegally retaining classified documents after leaving office and with obstruction of justice.
Manhattan prosecutors, meanwhile, indicted Trump this spring for falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments to a [censored] star who says she had a sexual encounter with Trump years ago.
Trump remains the front-runner for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, despite his legal woes. He has portrayed all the investigations as part of a coordinated effort by Democrats to undermine his candidacy.
In a post on his Truth Social site on Saturday, Trump again called the Georgia investigation a “witch hunt.”
Willis is expected to charge multiple people, possibly by using the state’s broad racketeering statute. Her investigation began soon after Trump made a phone call to the state’s top election official, Republican Brad Raffensperger, and urged him to “find” enough votes to alter the outcome.
In addition to efforts to pressure Georgia officials, Willis has examined a breach of election machines in a rural county and a plot to use fake electors in a bid to capture the state’s electoral votes for Trump rather than Biden.
Chidi, the journalist, has written about happening upon a secret meeting of those electors at the state capitol in December 2020.
Duncan, the former head of the state Senate, publicly criticized Republican lawmakers and Trump associates who pushed the false narrative that the election was tainted by fraud.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Editing by Daniel Wallis)
By Dan Williams
JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has offered Israeli military reservists protesting against his judicial overhaul plan a nominal olive branch, cooling his earlier censure of them as concerns for the country’s war-readiness mount.
Protest leaders say thousands of reservists have stopped reporting for duty. Among them are hundreds of air force pilots or navigators whose absence from weekly refresher flights means that by next month they may no longer qualify for combat.
As Israel faces potential flare-ups with Iran, Lebanon and the Palestinians, Netanyahu raged, in a cabinet recording leaked to a TV station on July 12, against what he deemed “insubordination” that threatened military capabilities.
The protesters have bristled at the term, noting that many of the reservists are designated as volunteers and arguing that their no-shows were a last resort to defend Israeli democracy.
Convening the top brass for consultations on the crisis late on Sunday, Netanyahu changed his language somewhat, saying in a statement he “utterly rejected the phenomenon of conditional reserve duty”.
“Brothers in Arms”, a reservist protester group, seemed unmoved by the gesture, accusing Netanyahu of playing down risks to military readiness.
The seeping of the reform furore into the armed forces, which Israelis long viewed as an apolitical melting pot, could be exacerbated by an unprecedented showdown among branches of government next month.
The Supreme Court will on Sept. 12 hear arguments against a bill limiting some of its powers to void government decisions, which was ratified in a parliament controlled by Netanyahu’s religious-nationalist coalition.
‘LIMITED’ IMPACT
Netanyahu has been hazy on whether he would heed a ruling against the law. He has argued that the court meddles in his mandate and reminded the military that, in a democracy, it is subordinate to the elected government.
Such debating was akin to “dancing on the deck of the Titanic”, Amos Gilad, a retired Israeli military intelligence general and regional analyst, told Army Radio on Monday, referring to perceptions of the country as vulnerable to its foes.
The military has so far acknowledged a “limited” impact from the reservist protest, citing the loss of some veteran instructors from the air force’s flight school.
It has also said more than half of crews that take part in bombing runs in Syria and elsewhere are reservists, signalling the possible impact of the protest on ongoing combat operations.
National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi declined to expand on Israel’s military readiness in an Army Radio interview.
“There are matters to which our enemies’ ears should not be exposed. As of now, the IDF (Israel Defence Forces) can handle its missions and the goal is to put this matter behind us,” he said.
(Writing by Dan Williams; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan will not be afraid nor back down in the face of authoritarian threats, the island’s vice president told supporters on a U.S. visit that Beijing has condemned, while reiterating a willingness to talk to China.
William Lai, also frontrunner to be Taiwan’s next president at January elections, is in the United States on what is officially a transit stop on his way to Paraguay for the inauguration of its new president. Paraguay is one of only 13 countries to maintain formal ties with the Chinese-claimed island.
Taiwan and the United States both say the stopovers, including one in San Francisco on the way back, are routine, but China has denounced them and called Lai a separatist “troublemaker”.
Lai told a supporters lunch in New York on Sunday that “if Taiwan is safe, the world is safe, if the Taiwan Strait is peaceful, then the world is peaceful”, according to Taiwan’s presidential office.
“No matter how great the threat of authoritarianism is to Taiwan, we absolutely will not be scared nor cower, we will uphold the values of democracy and freedom,” he said.
China considers Taiwan its most important diplomatic issue, and is a constant source of friction between Beijing and Washington, which is the island’s most important international backer and arms supplier.
China has a particular dislike of Lai, who has previously described himself as a “practical worker for Taiwan independence”, a red line for Beijing which has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.
WILLING TO TALK
Lai, who has pledged to maintain peace and the status quo, reiterated in New York that on the basic principle of dignity and parity he was “very willing” to talk to China and seek peace and stability.
But Lai said he will protect Taiwan’s sovereignty, that only Taiwan’s people can decide their future and that the Republic of China – Taiwan’s formal name – and the People’s Republic of China are “not subordinate to each other”.
Lai’s speech was attended by Ingrid Larson, managing director of the American Institute in Taiwan, a U.S. government-run non-profit that carries out unofficial relations with Taiwan.
Both Taipei and Washington are aiming for the U.S. stopovers to be low-key, and have called on China not to take any provocative action in response.
Still, Taiwanese officials say China is likely to launch military drills this week near Taiwan, using Lai’s U.S. stopovers as a pretext to intimidate voters ahead of a next year’s election and make them “fear war”.
On Monday, the Eastern Theatre Command of China’s People’s Liberation Army, which has responsibility for the area around Taiwan, showed pictures on its WeChat account of troops practicing storming a beach, though did not give the location, timing or specifically mention Taiwan.
It said the soldiers guided armoured vehicles “to the enemy frontline positions and launched a fierce attack”.
China carried out war games around Taiwan in April after Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen returned from California where she met U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy while also on a transit on her way back from Central America.
(Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Lincoln Feast)
The Russian rouble fell past the psychologically key 100 per U.S. dollar threshold for the first time since March last year on Monday.
President Vladimir Putin’s economic advisor said Russia was interested in a strong rouble and that loose monetary policy was the main reason behind the currency’s weakness. It has lost around 30% versus the dollar this year.
Below are comments from analysts at international banks and asset management firms.
VIKTOR SZABO, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, ABDRN
“We are clearly seeing the weakening of the external balances that has been happening as a result of all the sanctions.”
“They are still exporting the hydrocarbons but they are not what they used to be and the war in Ukraine is eating up a lot of resources.”
MICHAEL WANG, DEPUTY PORTFOLIO MANAGER, MIRABAUD ASSET MANAGEMENT
“The rouble has been underperforming all this year, partly on lower oil revenues but also because of capital flight. The most recent leg weaker was likely triggered by the central bank’s announcement last week that it would stop buying foreign currency on the domestic market.”
TIMOTHY ASH, SENIOR EM SOVEREIGN STRATEGIST, BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT
“Wonder when (central bank governor) Nabiullina will get the sack?”
The rouble’s fall “is being driven not only by lower energy receipts due to the loss of the bulk of the European gas business but also by the success of the G7 oil price cap, the much higher cost of imports due to sanctions and then continued capital flight.”
“The response will likely be higher policy rates and capital controls which will mean higher inflation, and ultimately lower growth.”
PIOTR MATYS, SENIOR FX ANALYST, IN TOUCH CAPITAL MARKETS, POLAND.
“The rouble remains under the selling pressure in the current global environment dominated by concerns about China, which is Russia’s most important trading partner.”
“The sharp fall in Russia’s current account surplus leaves the rouble more vulnerable to global sentiment. The CBR (Russian central bank) may have to raise interest rates further to cool down domestic demand and slow down imports to stabilize the rouble.”
(Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe, Marc Jones, Bansari Kamdar; editing by Ed Osmond and Toby Chopra)
BERLIN (Reuters) – Daimler Truck on Monday said that management board chairman Martin Daum would take over as chief financial officer on an interim basis after the sudden death of Jochen Goetz.
The company added that the search for a new CFO had been initiated by the supervisory board.
Daimler Truck had announced earlier this month that Goetz died suddenly and unexpectedly at the age of 52.
(Writing by Miranda Murray, Editing by Rachel More)
(Reuters) – Russia is in the process of equipping its new nuclear submarines with hypersonic Zircon missiles, the head of Russia’s largest shipbuilder told the RIA state news agency in an interview published on Monday.
“Multi-purpose nuclear submarines of the Yasen-M project will … be equipped with the Zircon missile system on a regular basis,” , Alexei Rakhmanov, chief executive officer of the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC), told RIA.
“Work in this direction is already underway.”
Yasen-class submarines, also known as Project 885M, are nuclear-powered cruise missile submarines, built to replace Soviet-era nuclear attack submarines as part of a programme to modernise the army and fleet.
The sea-based Zircon hypersonic missiles have a range of 900 km (560 miles), and can travel at several times the speed of sound, making it difficult to defend against them.
President Vladimir Putin said earlier this year that Russia would start mass supplies of Zircon missiles as part of the country’s efforts to boost its nuclear forces.
The Russian multi-purposes frigate Admiral Gorshkov, which has tested its strike capabilities in the western Atlantic Ocean earlier this year, has been already equipped with Zircon missiles.
(Reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
NEW DELHI (Reuters) -India’s wholesale price index fell 1.36% year-on-year in July, but the decline was smaller than expected because of higher prices for food and some commodities.
Economists polled by Reuters had estimated the wholesale price index for July would fall 2.70%. It fell 4.12% in June.
In July, fuel and power prices fell 12.79% from a year earlier, compared with a fall of 12.63% in June, and prices of primary articles rose 7.57% versus a fall of 2.87%.
Food prices sharply rose 7.75% year-on-year, compared with a fall of 1.24% in June, and manufactured product prices fell 2.51% in July, against a 2.71% fall the previous month.
Inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy has started to accelerate after showing signs of easing in the first few months of the year.
According to a Reuters poll of economists, India’s retail inflation is likely to accelerate to 6.40% in July on surging food prices, breaching the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 2%-6% tolerance band for the first time in five months.
The data will be released later in the day.
Last week, the RBI held its key lending rate steady as expected but moved to reduce the amount of cash in banking system as inflation concerns resurfaced following higher-than-usual seasonal spikes in food prices.
“Despite a favourable statistical base, the deflation of WPI has rapidly declined in July 2023 on account of a sharp sequential pick up in food prices, especially vegetable prices,” said Rupa Rege Nitsure, group chief economist at L&T Finance. That vindicates the RBI’s move to extend the “pause” and watch the situation carefully, she added.
(Reporting by Aftab Ahmed; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Gerry Doyle)
JAKARTA (Reuters) – Indonesia’s exports and imports likely continued a decline on a yearly basis in July amid weakening global trade, with its trade surplus seen shrinking, according to a new Reuters poll.
The median forecast of 17 economists for Indonesia’s July trade balance was for a surplus of $2.53 billion, down from $3.46 billion a month prior.
Southeast Asia’s largest economy booked its biggest ever trade surplus last year as exports jumped, driven by a global commodity boom.
The surplus has narrowed this year as exports declined amid falling prices of its top commodities such as coal, palm oil and nickel.
Last month, exports were seen down 18.3% on a yearly basis, following June’s 21.18% annual drop, predicted economists in the survey conducted between Aug. 7 and 14.
Imports likely fell 15.50% on a yearly basis, compared to June’s 18.35% drop, the median forecast showed.
(Polling by Susobhan Sarkar; Writing by by Gayatri Suroyo; Editing by Martin Petty)
SHANGHAI (Reuters) – The Shanghai Stock Exchange has urged bankers to pay close attention to the marketing practices of Chinese drug and medical equipment makers seeking initial public offerings (IPOs) amid an escalating anti-corruption drive in the sector, sources said.
The bourse asked investment bankers and lawyers to ensure drugmakers’ compliance and legitimacy in sales and marketing activities, according to an internal publication the exchange sent to bankers in late July that was reviewed by Reuters.
Two banking sources familiar with the issue confirmed the information. The Shanghai exchange declined to comment.
The guidance comes as China in late July launched an anti-graft campaign, targeting the practice of salespeople bribing doctors in drug and medical equipment sales.
Under the stepped-up crackdown, a growing number of healthcare companies are shelving their IPO plans and listed medical firms also saw their shares slump in the past two weeks.
Bankers should carefully examine if the company, controlling shareholders or actual controllers conduct bribery in marketing activities, the exchange said in the publication.
“Sales and marketing fees are complicated and there could be hidden expenses,” the bourse said.
The bourse also asked bankers to check the authenticity of the marketing expenses and urged companies to fully disclose information in their prospectus.
(Reporting by Shanghai Newsroom; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Shri Navaratnam)
SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) – China’s central bank is expected to keep rates on its medium-term policy loans unchanged on Tuesday, a Reuters survey showed, despite fresh signs the economic recovery is losing momentum.
Tumbling credit growth and rising deflation risks in July have called for more monetary easing measures to arrest the slowdown, market watchers said, but a weakening Chinese yuan has constrained the central bank’s efforts to imminently ease policy.
“MLF rate cuts are seen as less likely at this juncture given the weakness in the yuan – USD/RMB is currently attempting to make a fresh year-to-date high,” analysts at HSBC said in a note.
In a poll of 26 market watchers conducted this week, 20 participants, or 77%, predicted that the central bank would leave the interest rate on its one-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) loans unchanged when it is due to roll over 400 billion yuan ($55.11 billion) worth of such maturing loans on Tuesday.
The remaining six traders and analysts in the survey all expected a marginal rate reduction.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) last lowered the rate by 10 basis points to 2.65% in June. Retail sales, industrial output and investment data due on Tuesday will provide more clues on the direction of borrowing costs.
The yuan has lost about 5% to the dollar so far this year to become one of the worst performing Asian currencies. [CNY/]
China remains an outlier among global central banks as it has loosened monetary policy to shore up a stalling recovery but further rate cuts will widen the yield gap with the United States, putting more pressure on the yuan and risking outflows.
“We believe more pro-growth policies are warranted to support the economic growth, and further easing in monetary policy can be expected,” analysts at BofA Global Research said.
“That said, as policymakers vowed to ‘ensure the exchange rate is basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level’ during July’s Politburo meeting, we see limited space for significant monetary easing in the near term.”
They expect a 15-basis-point cut in one-year loan prime rate (LPR) in total in the third quarter of the year. A reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut was also a possibility to help restore credit demand.
The MLF rate serves as a guide to the LPR and markets mostly use the former as a precursor to any changes to the lending benchmarks.
In derivatives market, one-year interest rate swaps, a gauge that measures investor expectations of funding costs in the future, fell to 1.90% on Monday, the lowest since October 2022, suggesting some market participants are pricing in further rate reductions.
($1 = 7.2581 Chinese yuan)
(Reporting by Li Hongwei and Winni Zhou in Shanghai, Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
By Hyonhee Shin and Joyce Lee
SEOUL (Reuters) -North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has called for an increase in missile production to help secure “overwhelming military power” and be ready for war, state media KCNA said on Monday, as South Korea and the United States gear up for annual military drills.
Kim gave the order as he visited key munitions factories that produce tactical missiles, missile launch platforms, armoured vehicles and artillery shells on Friday and Saturday.
His field inspection was the latest in a string of visits to arms factories, where he ordered mass production of weapons, and came days before South Korea and the U.S. are to begin annual military drills, which Pyongyang sees as a rehearsal for war.
Kim noted an “important goal to dramatically increase” missile production capacity to meet the needs of the expanded and strengthened frontline military units, KCNA said.
“The qualitative levels of war preparations depend on the development of the munitions industry, and the factory has a tremendous responsibility in accelerating our military’s war preparations,” he was quoted as saying.
At other plants, Kim inspected and drove a new utility combat armoured vehicle, and praised recent progress in modernising production lines for large-caliber multiple rocket launcher rounds, KCNA said.
There was a “very urgent need” to “exponentially increase” the production of such rockets to strengthen frontline artillery units, he said.
“Our army must thoroughly secure overwhelming military power and solid readiness to handle any war at any time, so that the enemy does not dare to use force, and would be annihilated if it does,” Kim said.
South Korea and the United States said on Monday that they would stage the Ulchi Freedom Guardian summer exercises on Aug. 21-31 to improve their ability to respond to North Korea’s evolving nuclear and missile threats.
North Korea has denounced the allies’ military drills as a rehearsal for nuclear war.
This year’s drills will be held on the “largest scale ever”, mobilising tens of thousands of troops from both sides, as well as some member states of the U.N. Command, for about 30 field training programmes, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).
“The exercises are an essential element in maintaining robust combined defence posture in case of emergency – absolutely necessary to respond to the growing military threat from North Korea,” JCS spokesman Col. Lee Sung-jun told a briefing.
The United States has accused North Korea of providing weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine, including artillery shells, shoulder-fired rockets and missiles.
North Korea and Russia have denied any arms transactions.
The leaders of South Korea, the United States and Japan are also set to discuss security cooperation over North Korea, Ukraine and other issues when they gather for a trilateral summit on Aug. 18 at Camp David.
KCNA separately said on Monday that Kim visited “typhoon-hit areas” after tropical storm Khanun swept over the Korean peninsula last week, flooding farmlands.
(Reporting by Joyce Lee and Hyonhee ShinEditing by Chris Reese and Gerry Doyle)
(Reuters) -As the world’s central banks near the end of what has felt like a relentless string of interest rate rises, investors are taking a close look at how consumers and businesses are dealing with some of the tightest credit conditions in over a decade.
China’s post-COVID bounce doesn’t seem to have happened, while, in the West, Britain and the euro zone have skirted recession and the chances of a soft landing in the U.S. appear to be picking up.
Here is a look at the week ahead in markets from Kevin Buckland in Tokyo; Ira Iosebashvili in New York and Naomi Rovnick, Karin Strohecker and Amanda Cooper in London.
1/ A TIRED RABBIT
It’s been a tough few weeks (or months) for China – the world’s second-largest economy: housing market turmoil is flaring up again, growth and private investment remain fragile, and consumption and services are struggling to deliver on that much hoped-for post-COVID boom.
Markets have been disappointed over the lack of concrete stimulus action following the end-July Politburo meeting, and various sets of PMI data have charted a less than clear path ahead.
China retail sales data due on Tuesday will show whether spending can cling to the around-3% growth rate in June – a far cry from the double-digit readings earlier in the year.
Industrial production is due the same day, as is fixed asset investment and NBS housing sector data, which will provide a health check on the all-important property sector.
2/ HOLD ON A FED MINUTE
As the market’s attention shifts to the Federal Reserve’s meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at the end of the month, investors will be focused on minutes from the central bank’s latest policy meeting, as well as U.S. retail sales.
The Fed minutes, to be released on Wednesday, could offer more clarity on the views policymakers held during their July 25-26 meeting, at which the central bank raised rates and left the door open to another hike in September. July’s inflation data certainly suggests that this possibility is starting to look like a distant one.
Meanwhile, investors will get another look at the health of the U.S. consumer with Tuesday’s retail sales report. June retail sales, released last month, rose less than expected, but nonetheless showed consumers weathered higher interest rates. A similar result could support the so-called “soft landing” narrative of cooling inflation and durable growth that has buoyed markets.
3/ TECHNICALLY, NOT A RECESSION
The euro zone managed to avoid a technical recession in the first quarter of this year, after an upward revision by the statistics agency showed GDP was flat in that time, following a 0.1% contraction in the last quarter of 2022.
Data on Aug 16 could confirm that growth picked up in Q2. A preliminary estimate in late July showed GDP expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter versus the first.
A number of indicators are pointing to a slowdown, including a measure of business activity, which has skidded into recession territory and yet unemployment is at a record low.
Money markets show traders think the European Central Bank might raise interest rates one last time this year, before it starts cutting in the spring.
The GDP figures could offer a steer on what kind of message investors might get next month from ECB President Christine Lagarde.
4/ FINDING EQUILIBRIUM
Following a tumultuous couple of weeks, JGB investors finally seem to have found an appropriate level for 10-year yields below the new de-facto 1% ceiling – and it’s not far from where they were before the Bank of Japan’s surprise policy tweak.
After shooting to a nine-year peak of 6.55% – prompting the central bank to step in to restore calm – yields have settled around 0.58%.
The reason is not the BOJ’s heavy hand. Ultimately, there’s just too much demand for the bonds after years of sub-0.5% yields.
Investors have also realized that despite the loosening of long-term yield restrictions, the negative short-term rate isn’t going anywhere. Policymakers are worried whether a rise in wages will continue, and about the potential shock to exports from China’s struggles.
The tug-of-war between rekindling animal spirits at home and slowdowns abroad will be showcased in GDP numbers on Wednesday, following a rapid rebound from recession in the previous quarter’s figures.
5/ A JOB FOR THE BOE
UK jobs market reports can have a bigger impact on expectations for interest rates than any other indicator, meaning all eyes will be on labour data due August 15 for signs the Bank of England could turn less hawkish.
The BoE, responding to headline inflation of 7.9% in June, hiked rates to a 15-year high of 5.25% on August 3.
The UK public sees inflation running at 4.3% by July 2024, a Citi/YouGov survey found.
Yet some private data suggests that a strong jobs market, which has helped households keep spending, is slackening off. UK labour supply rose at its steepest pace in July since October 2009, the Recruitment & Employment Confederation said.
Analysts widely expect the BoE rate rise cycle to end soon. Morgan Stanley strategists forecast one more hike in September, with a prolonged pause thereafter.
(Compiled by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia’s labour regulator cleared the way for strike action at Chevron’s Wheatstone platform if workers vote in favour of such a step, fuelling concerns the country’s exports could be cut.
The Fair Work Commission last week ruled workers at Chevron’s downstream Wheatstone facility and its Gorgon facility can ballot workers for strike action.
(Reporting by Lewis Jackson in Sydney; Editing by Alasdair Pal)