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Business News

Explainer-What’s next for Ant after its nearly $1 billion fine?

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters) – The announcement of a nearly $1 billion fine by Chinese regulators on Ant Group has drawn a line under the fintech giant’s woes and given hope to investors that a regulatory crackdown on China’s broader technology sector is over.

Ant’s story so far has been one of a dramatic reversal in fortunes: while its shelved $37 billion IPO in 2020 had valued the company at $315 billion, a share buyback announced on Saturday valued it 75% less at $78.5 billion.

Here are some of the key things to look out for with respect to Ant:

KEY LICENSES

For more than two years, Ant has been working under the guidance of Chinese regulators to turn itself into a financial holding company to ensure its financial-related businesses are fully regulated.

After the fine, the next step would be to obtain the financial holding license, which is crucial for reviving any listing plans by Ant.

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The National Financial Regulatory Administration, a new government body under the State Council, is now the primary regulator to grant Ant the key license, sources have told Reuters.

A second license Ant is waiting to procure is one for a personal credit reporting company. China’s central bank said in November 2021 that it had accepted the application to set up Qiantang Credit Rating, a personal credit-scoring joint venture with Ant Group expected to own 35%.

IPO PROSPECTS

The resolution of Ant’s regulatory woes has revived talk of whether the company’s listing could be back on the cards.

But some analysts have said that the initiation of a share buyback was an indication that the possibility of an IPO in the short-term was unlikely.

Others have said that Ant’s announcement in January that its founder and billionaire Jack Ma will give up control of the Chinese fintech giant could also slow plans to revive its long-sought IPO as China’s domestic A-share market requires companies to wait three years after a change in control to list.

The wait is two years on Shanghai’s STAR market, and one year in Hong Kong.

OWNERSHIP

Ant’s announcement on Saturday that it will offer to buy 7.6% of its equity interest is set to give some investors an opportunity to exit.

Alibaba, which has a 33% stake in Ant, said on Sunday it was considering whether to participate in the buyback.

Ant’s major shareholders, Hangzhou Junhan Equity Investment Partnership and Hangzhou Junao Equity Investment Partnership, have voluntarily decided not to participate in the repurchase.

Existing investors of Ant included China’s national social security fund and major Chinese insurers such as China Life Insurance and China Pacific Life Insurance, as well as overseas institutions such as Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and private equity firm Warburg Pincus, according to Ant’s prospectus published in 2020.

Jack Ma-founded Yunfeng Capital was also among Ant’s pre-IPO shareholders, the prospectus showed.

(Reporting by Roxanne Liu and Brenda Goh; Editing by Christina Fincher)

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Exclusive-South Korea asks banks to prepare $4 billion to support credit union -sources

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Seunggyu Lim

SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea’s financial services regulator has asked major commercial banks to prepare around $4 billion in financing to support a credit cooperative hit by customer withdrawals, two banking sources familiar with the matter said on Monday.

An official at the Financial Services Commission said it could not confirm the amount or other details, but it had asked the banks for cooperation in preparing liquidity through repurchase-agreement facilities to aid MG Community Credit Cooperatives (MGCCC).

“(Authorities) are closely monitoring the liquidity of MGCCC,” the official said, declining to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. The commission had no further comment.

Depositors were lining up last week to withdraw funds from a branch of the cooperative after local media reported a rise in non-performing loans tied to real estate projects. The branch, in the city of Namyangju east of Seoul, is due to be closed soon.

South Korea’s top financial authorities pledged on Sunday to ensure liquidity at the credit cooperative, which has nearly 1,300 branches, saying in a statement that MGCCC’s capital ratio and liquidity far exceeded regulatory ratios and it had sufficient cash-equivalent assets.

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Sharply rising interest rates and a cooling property market have raised concerns about the potential impact on Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

South Korea’s five major commercial banks have signed or are in the process of signing repurchase agreements with the credit union, said the sources, who declined to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue. Repurchase facilities allow for raising cash in exchange for collateral, such as bonds.

Woori Bank, Hana Bank, Shinhan Bank, KB Kookmin Bank and NongHyup Bank had been asked to make financing available to MGCCC, although the actual amount extended to the credit union would depend on deposit withdrawals, the sources said.

The sources added that each of the banks was asked to prepare 1 trillion won of financing, or 5 trillion won in total ($3.84 billion), as potential support.

State-run Korea Development Bank and Industrial Bank of Korea are also setting up repurchase agreements with the credit union, Yonhap news agency reported on Monday, citing unnamed financial industry sources.

MGCCC and the banks did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

MGCCC said in a statement last week that its debt delinquency rate was manageable and it would work with the Interior Ministry to improve its financial soundness.

Sunday’s statement, from officials at the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Finance as well as the Financial Services Commission, added that withdrawals at MGCCC had slowed and new deposits had been coming in since last Thursday.

An investor note from Citi last week played down the risks from the incident but warned of negative effects on economic growth from the indebted real estate sector.

“We don’t see systematic risks from the event,” said Kim Jin-wook, an economist for Citi in Seoul, adding that any negative effects would likely be far less than those of a missed bond payment by a theme park developer late last year.

South Korean financial authorities coordinated with financial groups to set up a liquidity programme last November when a missed bond payment by theme park developer Gangwon-Jungdo Development sparked worries about a credit crunch.

($1 = 1,302.7800 won)

(Reporting by Seunggyu Lim; Additional Reporting by Jihoon Lee and Joyce Lee; editing by Edmund Klamann and Jason Neely)

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Analysis-NATO’s Ukraine debate still haunted by Bucharest pledge

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Andrew Gray

VILNIUS (Reuters) – As NATO nations try to agree on Ukraine’s push for membership at a summit in Vilnius this week, an earlier gathering casts a long shadow.

At a summit in Bucharest in April 2008, NATO declared that both Ukraine and Georgia would join the U.S.-led defence alliance – but gave them no plan for how to get there.

The declaration papered over cracks between the United States, which wanted to admit both countries, and France and Germany, which feared that would antagonise Russia.

While it may have been an artful diplomatic compromise, some analysts see it as the worst of both worlds: It served notice to Moscow that two countries it once ruled as part of the Soviet Union would join NATO – but brought them no closer to the protection that comes with membership.

Now, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is pressing NATO to make clear how and when Ukraine can join, after the war triggered by Russia’s invasion is over.

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Once again, there are divisions within NATO. And officials often cite the Bucharest declaration as a reference point.

There is widespread agreement that NATO should move “beyond Bucharest”, and not just restate that Ukraine will join one day. But there are substantial differences over how far to go.

This time, the United States and Germany have been the most reluctant to support anything that could be seen as an invitation or a process leading to membership automatically.

Meanwhile, Eastern European NATO members, all of which spent decades under Moscow’s control in the last century, are pushing for Kyiv to get a clear road map, with some backing from France.

Although Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced on Monday that a series of formal conditions for membership had been removed, the Vilnius declaration will inevitably be another compromise.

Assertions that “Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO” and that it will join “when conditions allow” are among the phrases being discussed, diplomats say, as officials try to find wording acceptable to all NATO’s 31 members. It may end up, as in Bucharest, being left to the leaders to resolve.

The parallels with the 2008 summit, held in the colossal Parliament Palace commissioned by Romanian communist dictator Nicolae Ceausescu, have struck many NATO-watchers.

Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine policy expert at the Chatham House think tank, said Zelenskiy and his advisers were working to secure as unambiguous an outcome as possible for Kyiv this time.

“The Bucharest summit left a lot of bad aftertaste and actually created the strategic ambiguity … the permanent NATO waiting room for Ukraine and Georgia,” she said.

PRESSURE FROM PUTIN

Much has changed since 2008, but one constant remains: Vladimir Putin.

The Russian president personally lobbied leaders in Bucharest not to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO.

This time, it is Zelenskiy who has the chance to make his case in person. But Russia will still be a big factor in discussions.

Underlying it all is the question of whether NATO would be prepared to come to Ukraine’s defence against Russia, starting a direct conflict between nuclear-armed powers. So far, all Western military backing for Kyiv has come from individual member states, not the transatlantic alliance as a whole.

Eastern European countries say the best way to ensure Russia does not attack Ukraine again is to bring it under the collective security umbrella that goes with NATO membership soon after the war. They say the Bucharest wording made little difference to Putin’s long-term intentions.

But others argue that promising Ukraine NATO membership after the war could encourage Putin to keep the conflict going.

They say the Bucharest declaration in fact prompted Putin to test Western Ukrainian militarily in both Ukraine and Georgia.

Four months after the summit, shelling from Georgia’s Russian-backed breakaway South Ossetia region induced the pro-Western government in Tbilisi to send in its army.

This in turn was promptly crushed by a Russian invasion force, cementing Moscow’s hold over a part of Georgia.

In 2014, Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine by force and backed separatist uprisings in eastern Ukraine’s Donbass region. And in February last year, Moscow launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine.

Moscow says the Bucharest declaration showed that NATO posed a threat to Russia.

But Ukraine says NATO made a promise and must now keep it.

“Whether 2008 was the right decision or not, we can leave that aside and just say that it took on really symbolic importance going forward,” said said Timothy Sayle, professor at the University of Toronto and author of a book on NATO history.

“The diplomats need to remind their leaders that what NATO says or what NATO writes in its communiques has lasting significance – and can create unexpected obligations.”

(Reporting by Andrew Gray; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

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Russia says on eve of NATO summit that Ukrainian entry would be a threat requiring tough response

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) – Russia said on Monday that Ukrainian membership of the NATO military alliance would have very negative consequences for Europe’s security architecture and that Moscow would respond firmly to any such step.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was speaking on the eve of a NATO summit in Lithuania aimed at showing solidarity with Ukraine while not yet accepting Kyiv as a member of the alliance.

“You know the absolutely clear and consistent position of the Russian Federation that Ukraine’s membership in NATO will have very, very negative consequences for the security architecture, the already half-destroyed security architecture in Europe. And it will be an absolute danger, a threat to our country, which will require from us a sufficiently clear and firm reaction,” Peskov told reporters.

Russia launched its war in Ukraine last year, something it calls a “special military operation,” after seeking and failing to obtain what it called “security guarantees” from the West that its neighbour would never be allowed to join NATO. The United States said the demand was a “non-starter”, and Ukraine should be free to decide its own alliances.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has made clear that Kyiv will not become a member while war rages, and that the Vilnius summit will not issue a formal invitation.

(Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Alexander Marrow and Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Andrew Osborn)

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Analysis-Ground down: Australia coffee shops an early inflation casualty

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Byron Kaye and Lewis Jackson

SYDNEY (Reuters) – The cost of serving up a sandwich with a cup of coffee has hit the roof across Australia’s vaunted cafes, squeezing profits and forcing a wave of closures for those that managed to survive the COVID slump.

The A$10 billion ($6.6 billion) Australian cafe industry, the world’s biggest outside Europe per capita, is shaping as an early, visible casualty of a perfect storm of rising utility bills, produce costs, wages and rents plus a slowdown in discretionary spending brought on by interest rate hikes, say economists and people in the industry.

A Reuters analysis of popular cafe orders found the cost to commercially produce a steak sandwich, including all overheads from electricity to cuts of beef, rose by one-sixth in the past two years, while discretionary spending flatlined, effectively wiping out the 10% profit margin typical of the industry.

The cost to make a flat white, one of the most popular Australian coffee orders, jumped by nearly one-fifth.

The result is smaller profits, a shrinking pool of regular customers and business owners heading for the exit.

“The cost of living started to bite, especially on people who used to come in for a daily meal,” said Jack Hanna, a former World Latte Champion who closed Goodsline Cafe in downtown Sydney last month, two years after opening to rave reviews and spending roughly A$1.5 million on the fitout.

“People are just not willing to spend money on discretionary items when the supermarket also costs quite a lot. We had to increase our prices and pay staff a living wage,” Hanna added.

Damian Krigstein, a nearby cafe owner who helped Hanna pack up Goodsline, said his business, Bar Zini, plans to convert to takeaway to cut costs.

“When you look around Sydney and you look at so many businesses for lease, institutions from when you were a child just completely gone now, people losing their livelihoods – it’s scary times,” said Krigstein.

Before COVID-19, hospitality venues were about one-third of Australian small businesses advertised for sale. Now there are more businesses up for sale, and the percentage of hospitality venues is closer to half, with asking prices being discounted by up to 50% of historic market values, say selling agents.

“Many of these hospitality vendors are simply exhausted after surviving COVID,” said Peter Meredith, a broker at SBS Business Brokers. “They are relieved to get out of leases.”

About one-sixth of cafes advertised for sale now close down before finding a buyer.

“People are starting to panic with increased electricity, wages, rent,” said Guy Cooper, a director at Link Business Sales Australasia, which has more than 400 hospitality businesses for sale nationwide.

Australian Securities and Investments Commission data showed business insolvencies in May at the highest monthly rate in eight years as COVID-related government protections expire.

So far, the insolvencies have been dominated by construction firms, but hospitality is expected to overtake it in the next year, says CreditorWatch, a credit reporting agency.

CreditorWatch CEO Patrick Coghlan said while a business-to-business organisation can raise prices 10% or 20%, that’s not possible in hospitality.

“You can’t charge A$30 for a bacon and egg roll. There’s no real respite.”

COST PRESSURES

Driving inflation, energy prices have jumped as much as 30% after the Ukraine war disrupted coal and gas markets, while wholesale produce costs have surged after years of extreme weather events.

With unemployment near the lowest on record, wages are rising, too, including for hospitality staff.

In addition, the pandemic increased cafes’ reliance on third-party delivery platforms which take a cut of revenue.

To combat inflation, Australia’s central bank has raised interest rates by 400 basis points in 14 months, the fastest tightening in a generation. It paused in July but warned it may resume hiking if inflation, still running at 7%, fails to slow.

As rising utility bills and a collapse of consumer spending make it impossible to make rent, David Cox, a cafe owner from Sydney’s suburbs, said he is selling, with expectations he will lose at least 60% of the A$170,000 he spent buying and refurbishing the business two years ago.

“The mortgage rates have done a lot of damage,” said Cox, 59, who recently laid off his three casual staff when daily takings dipped from A$1,000 last year to A$200. Cox’s monthly energy bill is about to jump from A$3,000 to A$3,800, nearly all his revenue.

“Some of my regulars I used to have will still come and get coffee and say, ‘We had to bring lunch. We just brought it in from home,'” he said.

($1 = 1.5103 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Byron Kaye and Lewis Jackson in Sydney; Editing by Praveen Menon and Sonali Paul)

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EXCLUSIVE: The Chinese Military Is Training Kindergarteners For War In Bootcamps Across The Country

by The Daily Caller July 10, 2023
By The Daily Caller

EXCLUSIVE: The Chinese Military Is Training Kindergarteners For War In Bootcamps Across The Country

Philip Lenczycki on July 10, 2023

The Chinese military is training kindergarteners to handle firearms and fight like soldiers in boot camps across China this summer, according to dozens of school social media accounts reviewed by the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The boot camps feature combat training for boys and girls with a wide variety of toy weapons including knives, grenades, rifles and shoulder-fired missiles, and require the children to adopt military behavior, such as saluting, the schools’ social media posts show. The rise in the militarization of China’s youth appears to follow a 2019 Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee push for increased “National Defense Education” and a related effort directing schools to hold National Defense Education activities in 2022, according to government documents.

“There’s sort of a ‘get ’em while they’re young’ mentality that has always been part of the communist ethos,” Brandon Weichert, a U.S. Air Force consultant, told the DCNF. “Xi Jinping is trying to inculcate not just a patriotic fervor among the next generation, but I think he’s trying to also create actual next soldiers for the inevitable campaigns that he plans on waging militarily.”

Uniformed People’s Liberation Army (PLA) soldiers oversaw all of the kindergarten boot camps that the DCNF reviewed. The boot camps were located in major Chinese cities, such as Beijing, Nanjing and Shenzhen, and were also run in more than half a dozen provinces including Anhui, Fujian and Guangdong, according to the schools’ social media posts.

The programs featured roughly the same sequence of activities, according to a DCNF review of posts from the participating kindergartens.

The boot camps generally began with basic military etiquette and proceeded to teach various military skills ranging from combat to emergency medical training. Additionally, a number of these programs also taught the children about famous PLA heroes and martyrs, according to the schools’ accounts.

‘Swear To Love The Motherland’

In May 2023, faculty members and more than 80 children of the Xingtan Guanghui Kindergarten in Guangdong province assembled on the playground for the opening ceremony of their school’s week-long National Defense Education camp, all wearing matching camouflage fatigues, according to the school’s social media account.

“INHERIT THE RED GENE, CARRY FORWARD PATRIOTIC FEELINGS, LOVE CHINA, LITTLE SOLDIER,” declared a large PLA banner, which partially hid the kindergarten’s playset.

“Kindergarten momma encourages her children not to fear hardship, fatigue or strict training,” the school’s principal told the children during the opening ceremony, the school’s social media account reported. “Respect the instructors and obey all commands.”

Uniformed PLA soldiers then performed a flag-raising ceremony, with all attendants singing the Chinese national anthem, the social media post stated.

“We solemnly swear to love the motherland from now on, to dedicate our hearts to working together to build the dream of a powerful country,” the children then pledged, according to the social media post. “Even if I fall to the ground I will continue onward!”

PLA soldiers then taught the kindergarten recruits how to groom themselves and make their beds in accordance with military standards, before drilling them in how to stand at attention, stand at ease and salute, the school’s social media account shows.

Experts say recent efforts to militarize China’s youth are part of the CCP’s ideological goals.

“While these measures do appear intended to put the Chinese masses on a stronger military footing in the longer term, they are also directed at the CCP’s longstanding efforts to deeply embed itself in civil-military relations and as part of its broader push to shore up the CCP’s legitimacy in the eyes of the Chinese masses through stoking nationalism,” Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute, told the DCNF.

“The CCP has been hardening its ideological line over the past decade and these measures are indicative of this expanding ideological campaign undertaken by Xi Jinping,” Hsiao said. “Xi has long emphasized the importance of early political indoctrination of Chinese youths, so it is no surprise that the youths are also singled out as an important target of CCP’s National Defense Education program.”

‘If The Youth Are Strong, The Country Will Be Strong!’

After teaching the children how to follow orders and act as units, the various kindergarten bootcamps then typically graduated to weapons training, according to a DCNF review of the schools’ programs. A majority of the kindergarten boot camps provided a similar selection of toy weapons to the children.

The boot camps typically included some form of close combat training, and issued toy knives or toy batons and ballistic shields to the children. The various programs also usually taught the cadets “rifle tactics” with toy guns, according to the schools’ social media accounts.

Multiple programs used these toy guns for squad-based skirmish exercises, during which the children pretended to shoot each other, the posts show.

“If the youth are strong, the country will be strong!” children sang over footage of a skirmish exercise during the May 2023 Houjie Yazhi Kindergarten boot camp in Guangdong province, according to the school’s social media post.

WATCH:

The boot camps also frequently provided different types of toy high explosives to the “little soldiers,” the schools’ social media accounts show.

The programs variously featured toy “potato smasher” hand grenades, foam rocket launchers and mortars, according to the posts.

WATCH:

Some boot camps, such as the May 2023 Xingtan Guanghui Kindergarten program in Guangdong province, trained the children to use all three types of explosive weapons, the school’s social media account shows.

“They’re prepping for war, and now they’re getting their kids involved,” said Weichert, author of “Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life.”

“Their kids aren’t talking about boys becoming girls and vice versa. Their kids are talking about, ‘let’s go out with bayonets, play in the field and pretend like we’re killing Americans.’ That’s where this is headed,” Weichert said.

‘Little Heroes’

Several kindergarten boot camps reviewed by the DCNF taught children to emulate famous war heroes and PLA martyrs.

For example, a June 2023 National Defense Education event held by the No. 2 Experimental Kindergarten in Zhengzhou, Henan province, screened an episode of the computer-animated children’s series, “Long March Hero,” according to the school’s social media account.

Kung Fu Animation Studios and the Jiangxi provincial government co-created “Long March Hero,” which focuses on communist special forces prior to the 1949 founding of the People’s Republic of China, according to government records. Characters in “Long March Hero” frequently kill each other during battle sequences, according to a DCNF review of multiple episodes.

The Zhengzhou kindergarten’s social media account states that the children were allegedly riveted by the “Long March Hero” action scenes depicting the Red Army fighting Imperial Japanese forces.

WATCH:

Solomon Yue, co-founder of Republicans Overseas, an organization that advocates for Republicans living abroad, told the DCNF that while growing up in Shanghai during Chairman Mao’s Cultural Revolution, the PLA subjected his class to a type of National Defense Education training called the “Long March Exercise,” which simulated “a retreat under attack by America.”

“Kids were asked to march 20 miles a day with food and blankets on ones’ backs for a week,” Yue said.

The Chinese government is also teaching kindergarteners to admire PLA martyrs this summer, the DCNF found.

In one instance, the Qingyuan Experimental Kindergarten boot camp in Zhejiang province showed children an animated video about Huang Jiguang, a celebrated PLA martyr who sacrificed himself for his military company during the Korean War by sacrificing his body to cover the opening of an enemy machine gun nest in 1952.

Likewise, “little soldiers” at a kindergarten boot camp in Guangdong province’s Longmen county, learned about PLA martyrs like Dong Cunrui, who sacrificed his life to blow up a key bridge while fighting the Chinese Nationalist army in 1948.

WATCH:

Yue told the DCNF that the CCP taught his class to revere PLA martyrs when he was growing up in China.

“PLA soldiers visited my school to brainwash the kids often,” Yue said. “The CCP wanted Chinese youth to believe that being PLA martyrs was glorious. A suicide attack against one’s enemy is to honor the CCP.”

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact [email protected].

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What would happen if Ukraine joined NATO?

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

BRUSSELS (Reuters) -Ukraine stepped up its efforts to join NATO after Russia invaded last year, arguing that the security assurances given by Moscow, Washington and London when it relinquished its nuclear arsenal to Russia in 1994 were clearly worthless.

While eastern European countries say some sort of a road map should be offered to Kyiv at a NATO summit in Vilnius on Tuesday and Wednesday, the United States and Germany are wary of any move that might take the alliance closer to war with Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited NATO’s expansion towards Russia’s borders over the past two decades as a key reason for his decision to send tens of thousands of troops into neighbouring Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022.

Any expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization must be agreed by all 31 members, and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has already ruled out a formal invitation for Kyiv at the summit.

Following are the steps that Ukraine has taken on its way to NATO membership, a possible compromise over the next steps – and Russia’s view of the developments.

AN UNMAPPED PATH

In 2008, NATO agreed at a Bucharest summit that Ukraine – which was part of the Moscow-ruled Soviet Union until its 1991 demise – could eventually join the alliance.

But NATO leaders did not give Kyiv a so-called Membership Action Plan (MAP) laying out a road map for bringing it closer to the bloc. Moscow then illegally annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and backed separatist proxies in eastern Ukraine.

In a rare visit to Kyiv this April, Stoltenberg said Ukraine’s “rightful place” was in NATO but later made clear it would not be able to join while the war with Russia, whose forces now occupy more of Ukraine’s east and south, rages on.

At the start of June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his nation understood this position, but at the end of the month he repeated calls for Ukraine to receive a “political invitation” to NATO at the summit.

Under the MAP process followed by other former communist countries in eastern Europe, candidates have to prove they meet political, economic and military criteria and are able to contribute militarily to NATO operations.

Since 1999, most countries aiming to join NATO have participated in a MAP although this procedure is not mandatory: Finland and Sweden, formerly neutral states which worked closely with NATO, were invited to join the alliance directly.

It is unclear what Ukraine’s path to membership will look like as more and more countries, Britain and Germany amongst them, suggest skipping the MAP process.

With such a move, NATO could address demands by Kyiv and its allies in eastern Europe to go beyond the language of the 2008 Bucharest summit agreement without offering Ukraine an actual invitation or timetable.

Ukraine’s military has taken major steps towards NATO standards since Russia’s all-out invasion. The process is accelerating as its Soviet-built arms and ammunition gradually run out and the West trains Ukrainian troops according to NATO standards and sends more and more advanced weaponry.

WHY IS UKRAINIAN MEMBERSHIP SO SENSITIVE?

A mutual assistance clause lies at the heart of the alliance, which was formed in 1949 with the primary aim of countering the risk of a Soviet attack on allied territory.

It is cited as one of the main reasons why Ukraine cannot join NATO while in conflict with Russia, as this might immediately draw the alliance into an active war.

The clause, Article 5 of NATO’s Washington Treaty, states that an attack on one ally is considered an attack on all allies.

Stoltenberg has made clear that, while NATO must discuss options for giving Ukraine security assurances for the time after the war, security guarantees under Article 5 will only be provided to full members of the alliance.

The Kremlin portrays the expansion as evidence of Western hostility to Russia – something Western powers deny, saying the alliance is wholly defensive in nature.

Moscow has said it would cause problems for many years to come if Ukraine joined NATO and has warned of an unspecified response to ensure its security.

(Reporting by Sabine Siebold; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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Hong Kong’s easing of mortgage rules boosts home visitors, but not deals

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Clare Jim

HONG KONG (Reuters) – Hong Kong’s move to raise the maximum mortgages available to some homebuyers, its first relaxation in curbs on home purchases adopted in 2009, boosted shopping interest over the weekend but did little for transaction volumes, property agents said.

One of the world’s most expensive property markets, the Asian financial hub raised its cap on the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on Friday to 60% to 70% from 50%, for properties worth up to HK$30 million ($3.8 million).

Aimed at helping those looking to buy or upgrade homes for their own use, the step drove up visitors to new home launches and existing homes by 20% to 30% during the past weekend compared to the previous week, said Louis Chan, Asia Pacific vice chairman of Centaline Property Agency.

“However the buyers would not react so quickly, because the economy is still not good,” Chan added, citing uncertainty over the prospect of interest rate hikes.

Chan said 75% of existing transactions are worth HK$10 million or less, featuring small-sized apartments, so the new measure would help only about a fifth of the transactions.

After home prices dropped 15% last year, market participants urged the government to relax property curbs with measures such as scrapping extra stamp duties for second-time homebuyers and non-citizens.

But the government has no intention to relax more measures after Friday’s move, Financial Secretary Paul Chan has reiterated.

With property prices still relatively high amid a housing shortage, it was not an appropriate time for more adjustments, Chan said on Saturday.

Stock market reaction to the easing was muted on Monday, with the majority of property developers rising less than 1%, in line with a gain of 0.6% gain in the benchmark index.

Sun Hung Kai Properties and New World Development, eased 1.6% and 1% respectively, however.

Setting a limit on higher transaction volumes is an existing stress test on the repayment ability of borrowers, which has not been relaxed, said Alvin Cheung, associate director of Prudential Brokerage Ltd.

Property agents in the former British colony say a borrower needs a monthly income in excess of HK$100,000 in order to borrow 60% of a home purchase price of HK$30 million.

“To improve the property market you can’t just loosen one measure, you need a basket of relaxations,” Cheung said, adding that people were usually reluctant to borrow more at times of rising interest rates.

But many developers welcomed the government move. Henderson Land said it facilitated property trading for homebuyers, while Asia Standard International said it eased some of the burden of down payments.

Phileas Kwan, executive director of Asia Standard, which began selling flats in a new development on Friday, said it had been 9.4 times oversubscribed over the weekend, with buyers including newly-weds and home upgraders.

The company plans to launch more new sales shortly, he added.

(Reporting by Clare Jim; Editing by Clarence Fernandez)

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Next wave of North American LNG export projects to face labor challenges

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Curtis Williams and Nia Williams

HOUSTON (Reuters) – A coming wave of North American liquefied natural gas (LNG) export projects faces staffing challenges that are prompting some of the biggest developers to expand training and coordinate projects to keep construction workers.

There are eight export projects now under way that when completed would add 86 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) capacity of the chilled natural gas. The projects have already created thousands of construction jobs and are soon to employ hundreds of operators.

Paul Marsden, head of Bechtel Corp’s Energy global business unit, which has built 30% of the world’s LNG plants in the last 20 years, said industry, labor and education must work together to provide the training and workers to staff all the projects.

“Labor has grown as an inflationary concern for everyone in the industry. We need to actively forecast and manage labor availability and supply chain like never before,” Marsden said in an interview via email last week.

In the past, soaring construction costs in U.S. LNG projects hurt project economics and even led to bankruptcy for one major contractor, said Alex Munton, a director at consultancy Rapidan Energy Group.

“We have multiple projects that are under way at the same time and four mega projects, with the possibility of a fifth to be announced soon, and they require the same type of labor,” he said. “This will drive up labor costs, increase schedule risks and create productivity issues.”

Bechtel is developing projects with some 27 MTPA of new capacity, including Sempra’s Port Arthur LNG project and an expansion at Cheniere Energy’s Corpus Christi plant, with an additional 29 MTPA waiting for formal approvals to move ahead.

WORKERS NEEDED

At present Bechtel has more than 3,000 professionals working on its LNG projects. At peak, the company expects the number to grow to close to 20,000 craft professionals, Marsden said.

Cheniere Energy, one of Bechtel’s largest customers and the biggest LNG exporter in the U.S., has scheduled its construction so it can move existing workers from the Corpus Christi expansion to its next project when that gets going, to ensure it does not lose workers. Two other projects – Golden Pass LNG and Plaquemines LNG – have added workers and are moving to 24-hour work schedules.

Cheniere preordered material for its newer Corpus Christi project to avoid inflation, said Chief Operating Officer Corey Grindal.

“We expect to be able to move from Stage 3 straight in to our further expansion, which is basically on the same compound, so we believe that with our contractor, Bechtel, we will be able to retain our workers,” Grindal said.

Cheniere and Bechtel are training workers using virtual simulations or via partnerships with local schools.

LNG Canada, located in Kitimat in a remote corner of British Columbia, invested more than C$5 million ($3.74 million) in training including at local colleges, the company said.

    The local area has few big facilities, “so we’re trying to make sure we develop that workforce locally,” LNG Canada CEO Jason Klein said.

MODULAR DESIGNS

Some newer plants are employing modular and pre-built components to avoid the inflationary pressure of a stick-built plant by outsourcing some of the construction to countries with lower labor costs.

    “We had more than 10,000 people at a time in different yards in China, and that just would not be possible in Kitimat,” Klein said.

Commonwealth LNG, which hopes to get a financial green light for its first project by the end of the year, is also looking to modular plant designs to lower labor costs.

“The Australian projects, the initial ones, were as much as two to three thousand dollars per tonne of production, said Chairman Paul Varello. “Our number is like $700 per tonne.”

Venture Global LNG stitched together 18 liquefaction units in its highly modular Calcasieu Pass LNG plant, allowing it to open the facility in what it said was record time. But problems with the equipment have prevented it from delivering contract cargoes, the company has said. First commercial cargoes will not be available until 2024, two years after processing began.

(Reporting by Curtis Williams in Houston and Nia Williams in British Columbia; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

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Analysis-U.S. crypto lobbyists court Democrats in fresh legislative push

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Michelle Price

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Embattled by a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) crackdown, crypto companies are making a renewed push on Capitol Hill to drum up support for legislation they hope will rein in the agency and provide regulatory clarity for the industry.

The Blockchain Association, Chamber of Digital Commerce, Crypto Council for Innovation, and Coinbase Global are among the groups knocking on doors in Congress to build bipartisan support for a draft bill ahead of a key vote in coming weeks, said half a dozen executives and lobbyists.

While crypto companies have been expanding in Washington over the past two years to combat growing regulatory scrutiny, the latest industry scramble shows how recent high-profile SEC enforcement actions are galvanizing the crypto lobby.

“It’s another motivating factor to get up there and educate” Congress, said Cody Carbone, vice president of policy at the Chamber of Digital Commerce.

Crypto companies started out in a regulatory gray area, but the SEC has steadily asserted its authority over the industry, arguing most cryptocurrencies are securities and subject to its investor protection rules. That effort escalated last month when the SEC sued crypto exchanges Coinbase and Binance for failing to register some crypto tokens. The pair deny the allegations.

Most crypto companies dispute the SEC’s jurisdiction. They argue cryptocurrencies are more like commodities than securities, and want Congress to write laws making that clear.

Lobbyists are focused on a discussion draft bill by the Republican chairs of the House Financial Services and Agriculture committees, Patrick McHenry and Glenn Thompson respectively, which would define when a cryptocurrency is a security or a commodity. It would expand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s (CFTC) oversight of the crypto industry, while clarifying the SEC’s jurisdiction.

It is the most comprehensive of several crypto bills floated in recent years, with the greatest chance of becoming law, lobbyists say. That is because of the close cooperation between the committees that oversee the CFTC and SEC, which are often accused of vying for crypto oversight. With Democrats’ support, the bill could have a shot in the Senate.

“For anything to really get traction, it has to have bipartisan support. So we’re very focused on how we as an organization, and as the industry, can help facilitate that,” said Brett Quick, head of government affairs at the Crypto Council for Innovation. “It’s not a perfect bill, but it’s a really good starting point.”

McHenry and Thompson are discussing the proposal with crypto companies, regulators and Democrats, and hope the committees will vote on it before the August recess, senior Republican policy staff said. A spokesperson for Thompson said they are “coordinating closely.”

Democrats, though, are skeptical about crypto after several major players collapsed last year, including FTX. It is unclear if Maxine Waters and David Scott, the top Democrats on the Financial Services and Agriculture committees respectively, will back the bill. Both have raised concerns it would weaken the SEC’s powers.

“It proposes a cumbersome framework with inherent structural issues that will undermine the ability of our federal financial regulators to properly regulate and oversee an industry already rife with instability and fraud,” Scott said in a statement.

Still, crypto lobbyists believe other Democrats on the committees who have yet to take a stance on crypto could be persuaded that the bill would help protect American innovation and jobs, including Vicente Gonzalez and Sylvia Garcia.

“That’s where we are recommending that our members, other members of the industry, really target their advocacy efforts,” said Carbone.

Spokespeople for the SEC, CFTC, Waters and Gonzalez did not provide comment. A spokesperson for Garcia said she is paying close attention to the bill.

‘MASSIVE SETBACK’

Lobbyists acknowledge they are on the backfoot after the FTX scandal and indictment of its high-profile founder Sam Bankman-Fried badly hurt the crypto industry’s credibility.

“It was certainly a massive setback, particularly because Sam Bankman-Fried was so personally active in Washington,” said Kristin Smith, CEO of the Blockchain Association.

The industry has been trying to repair the damage. It spent around $6 million on federal lobbying in the first quarter, putting it on track for another record year after spending $21.6 million in 2022, according to OpenSecrets. Coinbase was the biggest spender during the first quarter at $700,000.

The company is also running a grassroots campaign, encouraging crypto users to contact lawmakers, said Kara Calvert, head of U.S. policy at Coinbase. “It’s not just Coinbase that cares about crypto; it’s hundreds of thousands of people across the United States.”

(Reporting by Michelle Price; Additional reporting by Hannah Lang and Douglas Gillison; Editing by Richard Chang)

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Bank of Canada seen hiking rates quarter point to tame stubborn inflation

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Steve Scherer

OTTAWA (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada (BoC) is heading toward a second consecutive quarter-point interest rate hike on Wednesday after a month of economic data revealed resilient growth, a stubbornly tight labor market and sticky underlying inflation, analysts said.

In June, the central bank raised its overnight rate to a 22-year high of 4.75% after a five-month pause, saying monetary policy was not restrictive enough. It then said further moves would depend on economic data.

The BoC will announce its decision on Wednesday at 1000 am ET (1400 GMT).

Data in the past month showed some signs of a slowdown – inflation cooling to 3.4%, a tepid May jobs report and a surprise trade deficit in May. Still, the market expects another rate hike.

Growth has remained resilient and the housing market has showed signs of picking up despite nine rate increases totaling 450 basis points since March of last year. The economy regained momentum in May, likely growing 0.4% on the month, after stalling in April.

Canada added far more jobs than expected in June, according to data published on Friday.

“While the data released since the June meeting suggests that the economy has cooled on the margin, the details have been uniformly stronger,” said Jay Zhao-Murray, FX analyst at Monex Canada. “We expect the BoC to take the policy rate 25 basis points higher to 5%.”

Twenty of 24 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the bank to lift rates by another quarter-point and then hold well into 2024.

Though the headline inflation figure is now less than half of last year’s 8.1% peak, the three-month annualized rates of the BoC’s core measures are just barely creeping lower.

While the BoC’s job is to get inflation to its 2% target, it also aims to take borrowing costs just high enough to bring down costs without sending the economy into a tailspin. Money markets show some are betting on yet another hike by year end.

“Interest rates are already at, or even above, levels that would have prevailed under a more normal hiking cycle,” said Andrew Grantham, a senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets. “Any moves from here should be about fine-tuning policy and responding to most recent data.”

(Reporting by Steve Scherer, additional reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by David Gregorio)

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Marketmind: Bruised bonds relying on disinflation

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

Last week’s bond market storm calmed somewhat on Monday, but the interest rate horizon now relies heavily on evidence of more disinflation given economic activity and the labor market are holding up so well.

With Wednesday’s U.S. consumer price report expected to show an almost one percentage point drop in headline inflation to just 3.1% last month, China on Monday chimed with the disinflation chorus – and maybe more than it would like, as deflation there is now a real issue.

Factory gate prices in the world’s second biggest economy fell at their fastest annual rate in over seven years in June and there was no annual consumer price inflation at all – a deflationary warning that begs for some policy stimulus that’s yet to show.

While that’s worrying for China, it should help ease inflationary concerns elsewhere in the world.

Although Friday’s June U.S. employment report showed the monthly payroll gain at its lowest in 2-1/2 year, the still-brisk 200,000 jobs gain ensured the unemployment rate fell back to just 3.6% and annual wage growth picked up to 4.4%.

While that data took the edge off the red-hot private-sector jobs readout the previous day, it left a bruised bond market still wary of further Federal Reserve interest rate rises and praying disinflation may stay its hand after one more hike later this month.

Although Treasury bond volatility backed off six-week highs on Friday, its weekly rise was the biggest since the wild swings around the banking stress in March.

Although another quarter-point Fed hike is now baked in for the July 26 meeting, futures markets dialled back expectations for another such move by November and now see less than a 50-50 chance of a second hike this year.

Two-year Treasury yields fell back below 5% on Friday and remained there first thing today. Ten-year yields held above 4%, however, and the 2-to-10 year yield curve steepened to its least inverted level in almost a month.

The tentative stabilisation of the bond market hasn’t lifted nervy stocks, however, and the start this week of the second-quarter corporate earnings seasons – expected to show another annual contraction in aggregate S&P500 profits – adds a further risk factor.

Stock futures were in the red again ahead of Monday’s open despite gains in Chinese and European bourses. The VIX index of implied equity market volatility remains elevated above 15.

The dollar recovered ground following its payrolls-related swoon on Friday. The offshore Chinese yuan edged lower.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ended her China visit without any significant breakthroughs on thorny trade and industry standoffs between the two economic superpowers. President Joe Biden visited Britain ahead of this week’s NATO summit in Vilnius.

British markets – where the UK government bond market selloff last week had been worse than in Treasuries – remained edgy. A bearish note from HSBC on UK real estate weighed on the sector, pushing real estate investment trusts and real estate stocks down 0.4% each.

Finance minister Jeremy Hunt is due to spell out on Monday long-awaited plans to encourage pension funds and other asset managers to invest in high-growth sectors and private equity, the Treasury said on Sunday.

Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey also speaks on Monday.

In South Korea, banking nerves went up a notch as the financial services regulator asked major commercial banks to prepare around $4 billion in financing to support a credit cooperative hit by customer withdrawals.

Events to watch for later on Monday:

* U.S. May consumer credit, June employment trends

* Federal Reserve Vice Chair for supervision Michael Barr, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic all speak; Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey speaks

* U.S. President Joe Biden visits Britain ahead of NATO summit

* U.S. Treasury sells 3-, 6-month bills

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond, [email protected]. Twitter: @reutersMikeD)

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Starbucks union wants to enlist customers to organize pickets

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Hilary Russ

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Pro-union baristas at Starbucks are taking their campaign on the road on Monday and trying a new tactic along the way: asking the coffee chain’s customers to organize pickets at non-unionized U.S. cafes.

The Workers United union plans to hand out flyers during a 13-city bus tour to customers with a QR code that takes them to a sign-up sheet to organize their own protests during a “national ‘Adopt-a-Store’ day of action” on Aug. 7, according to copies of the flyers seen by Reuters.

The union is taking a more aggressive tactic of directly targeting customers as contract negotiations drag on. The union and company blame each other for bargaining delays and alleged labor law violations.

Starbucks has been accused of more than 570 unfair labor practice charges. On Thursday, the National Labor Relations Board sued Starbucks over its refusal to rehire 33 workers as it shuffled three downtown Seattle stores into its “Heritage District” after one of those cafes unionized.

The dispute is threatening Starbucks’ reputation as a progressive employer, with some investors pressuring the company to account for its treatment of pro-union employees.

The union now represents baristas and shift supervisors at about 320 of Starbucks’ roughly 9,000 corporate-owned U.S. locations. However, its recent growth is at risk if it cannot reach deals at the stores where it represents employees.

“Despite the fact that we have attempted to schedule bargaining for hundreds of stores, Workers United has only met Starbucks at the table to progress negotiations for 11 stores,” Starbucks said in a statement.

“(Employees) voted for bargaining not buses,” the company said, adding that stalled negotiations have led workers to be so frustrated that they filed petitions to kick out the union at several stores.

The union’s tour has two legs: one travels through the Midwest, South and East, while a second leg will run up the Pacific coast, arriving in Seattle around Aug. 7, the union said.

The tour will also target Starbucks board members such as Land O’Lakes CEO Beth Ford, whose likeness was carved into a statue made of butter that union members delivered to the creamery’s Minneapolis headquarters in April.

(Reporting by Hilary Russ; Editing by Richard Chang)

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Court reinstates Tennessee ban on care for transgender youth

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A Tennessee law prohibiting doctors from providing medical care such as puberty-blockers and gender affirming surgery for transgender minors can go into effect immediately, a U.S. appeals court ruled Saturday.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit said advocacy groups that had challenged Tennessee’s law could not show they were likely to prevail on their claims it violated the U.S. Constitution. The panel of three judges voted 2-1 to reverse a lower court’s decision that had blocked Tennessee from enforcing the law while it was being challenged.

“Life-tenured federal judges should be wary of removing a vexing and novel topic of medical debate from the ebbs and flows of democracy by construing a largely unamendable federal constitution to occupy the field,” Judge Jeffrey Sutton wrote for the appeals court.

Neither the advocacy groups that challenged the law nor the state’s attorney general could be reached Saturday morning.

Tennessee’s law is part of a growing series of efforts by Republican lawmakers to impose new restrictions on medical care for transgender youths. Lawmakers said the measure was necessary to protect minors from being permanently harmed. Medical associations have said gender-affirming care can be life-saving.

It bans any medical procedure performed for the purpose of enabling a minor to identify with a gender other than the one they were assigned at birth.

Federal judges have blocked five laws similar to Tennessee’s from taking effect. Those judges found the laws violated the Constitution’s guarantee of equal protection under the law.

The appeals court’s decision Saturday said that absent a clear showing that Tennessee’s law violated the Constitution, choices about medical care and protecting minors are best settled by state legislatures.

Judge Helen White said she believed Tennessee’s law “is likely unconstitutional” as a type of sex discrimination.

Sutton wrote that the appeals court will try to reach a final decision about Tennessee’s law by Sept. 30. “These initial views, we must acknowledge, are just that: initial,” he wrote. “We may be wrong.”

(Reporting by Brad Heath; Editing by Daniel Wallis)

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Meta’s ‘friendly’ Threads collides with unfriendly internet

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Katie Paul

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Mark Zuckerberg has pitched Meta’s Twitter copycat app, Threads, as a “friendly” refuge for public discourse online, framing it in sharp distinction to the more adversarial Twitter which is owned by billionaire Elon Musk.

“We are definitely focusing on kindness and making this a friendly place,” Meta CEO Zuckerberg said on Wednesday, shortly after the service’s launch.

Maintaining that idealistic vision for Threads – which attracted more than 70 million users in its first two days – is another story.

To be sure, Meta Platforms is no newbie at managing the rage-baiting, smut-posting internet hordes. The company said it would hold users of the new Threads app to the same rules it maintains on its photo and video sharing social media service, Instagram.

The Facebook and Instagram owner also has been actively embracing an algorithmic approach to serving up content, which gives it greater control over the type of fare that does well as it tries to steer more toward entertainment and away from news.

However, by hooking up Threads with other social media services like Mastodon, and given the appeal of microblogging to news junkies, politicians and other fans of rhetorical combat, Meta is also courting fresh challenges with Threads and seeking to chart a new path through them.

For starters, the company will not extend its existing fact-checking program to Threads, spokesperson Christine Pai said in an emailed statement on Thursday. This eliminates a distinguishing feature of how Meta has managed misinformation on its other apps.

Pai added that posts on Facebook or Instagram rated as false by fact-checking partners – which include a unit at Reuters – will carry their labels over if posted on Threads too.

Asked by Reuters to explain why it was taking a different approach to misinformation on Threads, Meta declined to answer.

In a New York Times podcast on Thursday, Adam Mosseri, the head of Instagram, acknowledged that Threads was more “supportive of public discourse” than Meta’s other services and therefore more inclined to draw a news-focused crowd, but said the company aimed to focus on lighter subjects like sports, music, fashion and design.

Nevertheless, Meta’s ability to distance itself from controversy was challenged immediately.

Within hours of launch, Threads accounts seen by Reuters were posting about the Illuminati and “billionaire satanists,” while other users compared each other to Nazis and battled over everything from gender identity to violence in the West Bank.

Conservative personalities, including the son of former U.S. President Donald Trump, complained of censorship after labels appeared warning would-be followers that they had posted false information. Another Meta spokesperson said those labels were an error.

INTO THE FEDIVERSE

Further challenges in moderating content are in store once Meta links Threads to the so-called fediverse, where users from servers operated by other non-Meta entities will be able to communicate with Threads users. Meta’s Pai said Instagram’s rules would likewise apply to those users.

“If an account or server, or if we find many accounts from a particular server, is found violating our rules then they would be blocked from accessing Threads, meaning that server’s content would no longer appear on Threads and vice versa,” she said.

Still, researchers specializing in online media said the devil would be in the details of how Meta approaches those interactions.

Alex Stamos, the director of the Stanford Internet Observatory and former head of security at Meta, posted on Threads that the company would face greater challenges in performing key types of content moderation enforcement without access to back-end data about users who post banned content.

“With federation, the metadata that big platforms use to tie accounts to a single actor or detect abusive behavior at scale aren’t available,” said Stamos. “This is going to make stopping spammers, troll farms, and economically driven abusers much harder.”

In his posts, he said he expected Threads to limit the visibility of fediverse servers with large numbers of abusive accounts and apply harsher penalties for those posting illegal materials like child [censored]ography.

Even so, the interactions themselves raise challenges.

“There are some really weird complications that arise once you start to think about illegal stuff,” said Solomon Messing of the Center for Social Media and Politics at New York University. He cited examples like child exploitation, nonconsensual sexual imagery and arms sales.

“If you run into that kind of material while you’re indexing content (from other servers), do you have a responsibility beyond just blocking it from Threads?”

(Reporting by Katie Paul in San FranciscoEditing by Kenneth Li and Matthew Lewis)

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India inflation likely rose to 4.58% in June on higher food prices: Reuters poll

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Milounee Purohit and Anant Chandak

BENGALURU (Reuters) – India’s inflation likely snapped a four-month decline in June as food prices surged, a Reuters poll of economists found, making a cut in interest rates unlikely any time soon, while the Reserve Bank of India is also expected to resist pressure to raise rates.

“We believe the RBI will tolerate a supply-side driven rise in food inflation as long as core price pressures continue to ebb within the bank’s tolerance band,” said Alexandra Hermann, senior economist at Oxford Economics.

Uneven monsoon rains have damaged crops of some perishable foods and hindered the movement of goods, resulting in shortages of basic ingredients for Indian cooking, such as tomatoes, chillies and onions.

The pressure on food prices is likely to persist over the coming months, making it less likely that inflation would return to the central bank’s 4% target in the near term.

The July 3-10 Reuters poll of 55 economists predicted consumer price index (CPI) inflation rose at an annual pace of 4.58% in June, slightly faster than the 4.25% recorded in May. Forecasts ranged from 4.10% to 4.80%, with over 90% expecting inflation to be higher than May. “The inflation print is likely to be impacted by the seasonality in vegetable prices, especially for tomatoes and onions,” said Dipanwita Mazumdar, economist at Bank of Baroda.

“Erratic rains and heatwave conditions have also impacted production of a few crops for which prices have seen an uptrend of late.”

Prices of food items, which account for around half of the CPI basket, especially kitchen staples, have almost tripled in the past month, hitting low income households hardest. Inflation in Asia’s third largest economy is expected to average 5.0% in the fiscal year ending on March 31, 2024, and the following year, a separate Reuters poll showed. [ECILT/IN] Another Reuters poll in late May forecast that the RBI would leave interest rates unchanged until the end of this year, even as other major global central banks were expected to continue tightening monetary policy to quell sustained price pressures.

The survey also showed wholesale price inflation, the change in producer prices, likely declined 3.60% year-on-year in June, after a 3.48% decline in May.

(Reporting by Milounee Purohit and Anant Chandak; Polling by Veronica Khongwir and Susobhan Sarkar; Editing by Hari Kishan, Jonathan Cable & Simon Cameron-Moore)

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China’s car sales shrink 2.9% in June as big-ticket spending falters

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s passenger vehicle sales fell in June, data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) showed on Monday, as a stumbling economic recovery led to more consumer caution on big-ticket spending.

Car sales in June totalled 1.91 million units, down 2.9% from last year, CPCA data showed. It was the first monthly contraction since January. However, sales advanced 2.5% to 9.65 million units in the first half of the year.

Meanwhile, sales of new energy vehicles (NEVs), including pure battery electric cars and plug-in hybrids, jumped more than 25% in June, accounting for roughly 35% of the total car sales. NEV sales surged more than 37% to 3.09 million units in the first six months.

Both Tesla and rival BYD made record deliveries of their China-made vehicles in the second quarter, despite an uncertain recovery for the sector.

Chinese automakers counted more on overseas markets to sustain their sales growth, with car exports soaring 56% in June.

However, Tesla’s share in China’s market of pure electric and plug-in hybrid cars fell to 8.8% in the second quarter from 10.5% in the first three months, according to a Reuters calculation based on CPCA numbers.

With domestic consumer demand weak, the world’s largest auto market has been grappling with a price war triggered by Tesla in January that has since spread to more than 40 brands offering discounts on their vehicles.

While the price cuts initially boosted sales, the market’s recovery has been losing steam, prompting authorities to roll out more buyer incentives, including purchase tax breaks for EVs.

Two days after organising an industry-wide pledge to avoid “abnormal pricing”, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) retracted on Saturday, citing antitrust law.

The joint pledge by 16 automakers, including Tesla, BYD, Nio, Li Auto and Xpeng had been interpreted by some as signalling a truce in a price war that crippled industry earnings.

(Reporting by Qiaoyi Li, Zhang Yan and Brenda Goh; Editing by Dhanya Ann Thoppil, Robert Birsel)

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California governor to stop fighting against parole for Manson follower

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Daniel Trotta

(Reuters) – California Governor Gavin Newsom on Friday announced he would give up trying to deny parole to one of Charles Manson’s murderous “family” of followers, clearing the way to let Leslie Van Houten out of prison after more than 50 years.

In May a California appeals court overruled Newsom and found Van Houten, 73, was entitled to parole from her life sentence. The governor could have appealed the decision to the California Supreme Court.

“The governor is disappointed by the Court of Appeal’s decision to release Ms. Van Houten, but will not pursue further action as efforts to further appeal are unlikely to succeed,” Erin Mellon, the governor’s communications director, said in a statement.

Van Houten’s attorney, Nancy Tetreault, said she would be paroled in weeks, NBC News reported.

Van Houten was 19 when the murders were committed, making her the youngest of Manson’s devotees. The parole board recommended her for early release five times since 2016, but she was denied three times by Newsom and twice by his predecessor, fellow Democrat Jerry Brown.

Manson died in prison in 2017 at age 83, having become one of the 20th Century’s most notorious criminals for directing a killing spree that terrorized Los Angeles in the summer of 1969.

Manson directed his mostly young and female followers to murder seven people, including actress Sharon Tate, in August 1969 in what prosecutors said was part of a plan to incite a race war.

Van Houten was convicted of fatally stabbing grocery owner Leno LaBianca and his wife, Rosemary, in their Los Angeles home on Aug. 10, 1969. The words “Death to Pigs” and “Healter Skelter” – a misspelled reference to a Beatles song – were found scrawled in the victims’ blood on the walls and refrigerator.

The previous night, members of Manson’s cult broke into the Los Angeles hillside home that Tate shared with her husband, filmmaker Roman Polanski, who was away in Europe at the time.

Tate, who was 26 and eight months pregnant, was slain along with four friends of the celebrity couple, including coffee heiress Abigail Folger and hairstylist Jay Sebring.

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China kindergarten attack kills six, sparks safety worries

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters) – A 25-year-old man was suspected of attacking a kindergarten in China’s Guangdong province on Monday, killing six people and injuring one, triggering an outpouring of concern about violence against children at school.

Media reported the attack in Lianjiang county in the southern province was a stabbing. The suspect, with the surname Wu and from Lianjiang, had been detained, police said, adding they were investigating.

Some media reported that both adults and children were among the victims.

While violent crime is rare in China due to strict gun laws and tight security, incidents of stabbings at pre-schools over the past few years have raised concerns about school safety.

The latest news sparked emotive debate on the Weibo social media platform. By 1:50 p.m. (0550 GMT) it was the top-trending discussion, with 290 million views.

Some social media users called for the suspect to face the death penalty.

“It’s outrageous to do this to children who have no power at all. How many families will be destroyed by this … I support the death penalty,” one Weibo user said.

Another user questioned security at schools, especially after similar previous attacks.

“Why do such cases still continue to emerge?”

In August last year, three people were killed and six wounded in a stabbing at a kindergarten in the southern province of Jiangxi.

In 2021, a man killed two children and wounded 16 at a kindergarten in the southwestern region of Guangxi.

Attacks on children have also thrown a spotlight on mental health, which often goes under the radar due to cultural stigma attached to mental illnesses.

In 2017, a 22-year-old man set off an explosive device outside a kindergarten in Jiangsu province, killing himself and a few others while wounding dozens.

The man had a neurological disorder and had scrawled words for death on the walls of his home, according to state media.

Last month, a series of violent attacks in Hong Kong also raised the issue of mental health.

Mental health experts point to the COVID-19 pandemic as a major factor behind an increase in mental health problems.

(Reporting by Bernard Orr, Judy Hua, Qiaoyi Li, Ella Cao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Robert Birsel)

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China IPO applications fall by third in first half of 2023

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s IPO applications slumped by a third in the first half of 2023, as earnings volatility, a slowing economy and tighter regulatory scrutiny deterred potential candidates.

Chinese exchanges, which vet initial public offering (IPO) plans, accepted around 330 new applications during the period, down from more than 500 a year earlier, exchange data shows.

Although Beijing has adopted a registration-based system designed to let the market decide which companies list, bankers have said that the process largely remains at the discretion of authorities, using unwritten rules to decide on the grounds of national security or industrial policies.

Terence Ho, Greater China IPO Leader at EY, attributed the sharp fall in applications in January to June partly to some listing hopefuls failing to meet revenue or profit requirements as last year’s Chinese economic downturn hit their businesses.

In addition, “regulators have imposed stringent rules and penalties on the sponsors, making them more cautious in sponsoring companies’ IPOs,” Ho said.

Although total proceeds raised on China’s IPO market shrank from last year, it was still the biggest globally in the first half, dwarfing others including New York and Hong Kong.

Shanghai’s tech-focused STAR Market was the top venue, where companies raised $10.6 billion via IPOs in the first six months.

Shenzhen startup ChiNext was the second-biggest IPO hub with $9.3 billion raised, followed by New York, with listings worth $5.4 billion, Refinitiv data showed.

Syngenta, which is seeking to raise 65 billion yuan ($9 billion), has got a green light from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and could be the year’s biggest listing in China.

Hua Hong Semiconductor Ltd has received China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approval for a public share sale worth 18 billion yuan ($2.5 billion).

Meanwhile, more than 100 companies ended their IPO applications in the first half, most voluntarily, reflecting fading hopes of getting a regulatory go-ahead.

“The number of applicants dropped a lot because the implicit bar is getting much higher,” said a banker who declined to be identified because he was not authorised to speak to the media.

($1 = 7.2315 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Reporting by Shanghai newsroom and Scott Murdoch; Editing by Alexander Smith)

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BOJ highlights broadening wage, price hikes in report on regional Japan

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) -Many regional areas of Japan saw small and mid-sized firms aggressively raise wages, reflecting intensifying labour shortages, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) said on Monday, underscoring its growing conviction that wage hikes were broadening.

In a quarterly report, the central bank also said some firms were considering raising the prices of their goods and services to guard against the prospect of rising labour costs.

“Many regions reported cases where wage increases by small and mid-sized firms were broadening at a degree unseen in recent years,” the BOJ said in the report analysing the economic situation of regional areas.

The assessment suggests the country’s tight job market is emerging as a fresh factor that could sustainably keep inflation around the BOJ’s 2% target, meeting the condition the central bank has set for phasing out its massive stimulus.

But the BOJ’s branch managers overseeing big cities said there was uncertainty on whether firms will keep hiking pay next year, heightening the chance the central bank will spend more time gauging the outlook before tweaking its ultra-loose policy.

“If companies can earn enough revenues to pay for higher wages, there’s hope wage rises will continue. Given uncertainty over the outlook, however, it’s premature to say decisively that this will happen,” Takeshi Nakajima, the BOJ’s Osaka branch manager, told a news conference.

Tetsuya Hiroshima, the BOJ’s Nagoya branch head, said many firms were worried about the impact slowing global growth could have on their earnings.

“Many firms see the need to keep raising wages. But whether they will do so next year will depend on the business environment going forward,” said Hiroshima, who oversees the Chubu region – home to auto giant Toyota Motor Corp.

With inflation exceeding its 2% target for more than a year, markets are speculating that the BOJ will phase out its massive stimulus that has drawn criticism for distorting market pricing and narrowing financial institutions’ margins.

The BOJ has said it needs more evidence that inflation will sustainably meet its price target, accompanied by solid wage growth.

Companies offered the biggest pay hike in three decades this year to compensate households for the rising cost of living. The hope among BOJ officials is for wages to keep rising next year and underpin the economy by giving households purchasing power.

In the Chubu region, the economy is recovering as automakers ramp up production due to easing chip supply disruptions. But consumption is patchy with supermarkets complaining of households reverting to frugal spending, Hiroshima said.

In the quarterly report, the BOJ raised its economic assessment for three of Japan’s nine regions, and maintained it for the remaining six regions.

Monday’s report will be among the factors the BOJ will analyse to formulate fresh quarterly growth and inflation forecasts at its next policy meeting on July 27-28.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Edmund Klamann, Jacqueline Wong, Sharon Singleton and Simon Cameron-Moore)

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Eurozone investor mood tumbles more than expected in July

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

BERLIN (Reuters) – Investor morale in the euro zone sank more than expected in July, hitting a low not seen since Europe’s energy crisis last November, as the currency union remains in recession mode with no indications things will improve, a survey showed on Monday.

Sentix’s index for the euro zone tumbled to -22.5 points in July from -17.0 in June, dipping further than expected by analysts polled by Reuters, who forecast a reading of -18.0.

“There is also nothing positive to report in terms of forward-looking expectations,” said Sentix managing director Manfred Huebner, after the corresponding index tumbled 6.2 points to -24.5 in July, also its lowest since November 2022.

“The question is where an improvement could come from,” said Huebner, as investors surveyed expect central banks to further restrict monetary policy, and the US economy, which has resisted the global downturn, is not spreading positive momentum.

Huebner singled out Germany, Europe’s largest economy, in particular for having “dramatically bad” values: The overall index fell 7.3 points to land at -28.4, with similarly large dips in the current situation and expectations indices.

The poll of 1,226 investors was conducted between July 5-7, according to Sentix.

(Reporting by Miranda Murray, Editing by Rachel More)

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Soaring vegetable prices may tip India’s delicate inflation balance -economists

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

MUMBAI (Reuters) – A steeper-than-expected surge in the prices of vegetables, especially tomatoes, over the past few weeks could push India’s retail inflation towards 5.5% in the July-September quarter, at least three economists said.

The country’s inflation eased to between 4% and 5% in April and May, inching towards the central bank’s 4% target, and likely held below 5% in June as well, partly due to a supportive base, data due Wednesday is expected to show.

However, if the spike in vegetable prices sustains, it could push July inflation towards 6%, said Gaura Sen Gupta, an economist at IDFC First Bank.

Vegetable prices, on a consumer price index (CPI)-weighted basis, are up 34% so far in July, after rising 18% in June, said Sen Gupta, based on data provided by the National Horticulture Board.

Tomato prices, in particular, surged 160% month-on-month in the first week of July, IDFC First Bank Economic Research data showed, due to unseasonal rains and crop damage in certain parts of the country.

Even McDonald’s has stopped using tomatoes due to quality and price concerns.

Even if prices start to cool off, inflation could hit 5.5% over July to September, Kaushik Das, Deutsche Bank’s chief India economist, said in a note on Friday.

That is marginally higher than the 5.2% forecast by the Reserve Bank of India.

“While tomato prices have already increased sharply due to weather disruptions, other food items are also on the rise and the cumulative impact of these may be felt more in July than June,” Das wrote.

Nomura’s economists expect inflation to average around 5.5% over July and August and while that will not force a rate hike, they expect it will keep monetary policy tight.

“Monetary policy is likely to focus more on underlying inflation than an outlier,” economists Sonal Varma and Aurodeep Nandi said in a note last week.

“But a vegetable price-driven surge in the headline CPI could increase the policy trade-offs and risks delaying the first cut.”

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has maintained that the pause in rate hikes over the past two meetings should not be seen as a pivot as the disinflation process will be protracted.

(Reporting by Ira Dugal; Editing by Savio D’Souza)

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For Hong Kong’s youth, government-backed hostels offer a smidgen of housing hope

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Clare Jim

HONG KONG (Reuters) -For most young adults, moving out of home is a rite of passage but in Hong Kong – notorious for its chronic lack of housing – it’s usually an unaffordable dream.

Silver Ho, a 26-year-old hair stylist assistant who was tired of arguing with his parents, counts himself as one of the lucky ones. Two months ago, he landed a spot at a new so-called “youth hostel”, which offers rooms for young adults that are subsidised by the Hong Kong government and can be rented for up to five years.

His 22 square metre (240 square foot) twin-bed room he’ll share with another person is only a bit smaller than the public housing unit he shared with his parents.

Ho also pays rent of just HK$4,400 ($560) per month, 27% cheaper than a space in a sub-divided flat in the same neighbourhood. Such partitioned units often have no personal bathroom and are barely big enough for a bed.

The hostel programme, ramped up last year under pressure from Chinese President Xi Jinping, is aimed at tackling youth frustration with housing – a factor Beijing believes contributed to the anti-government pro-democracy protests that rocked the city in 2019.

It’s also aimed at nurturing what the government considers to be good responsible citizens and providing opportunities for self-development.

Applicants – who must be younger than 31, earn less than HK$25,000 ($3,200) a month and have less than HK$380,000 in assets – are chosen after interviews. They are also required to do 200 hours a year of community service or approved activities to keep their rooms.

For Ho, gaining a room at the BeLIVING hostel has meant independence and saving on commuting time. It’s the first to have been converted from a hotel under a new scheme and unlike the city’s three other hostels, is conveniently located in the bustling commercial area of Causeway Bay.

“I now have more time in the salon to learn new skills and practise. That helps increase my chances of getting a promotion,” he said.

HOME TRUTHS

Hong Kong has been the world’s least affordable housing market for 13 consecutive years, according to research firm Demographia, and housing woes are widely blamed for most of the city’s social problems.

Public housing units are available for low-income people but the average waiting time is 5.3 years. Families and the elderly are favoured, so the chances of one going to a young single person are close to nil.

Hong Kong’s hostel programme first started in 2011 but only gained momentum after Xi visited the city last July and said the government must do more to tackle youth housing and job problems while creating more opportunities for self-development.

At the time, the city had only one hostel with 80 beds. Since then, however, the government has pledged to boost supply.

It now aims to provide 3,000 beds in five years through hotel-to-hostel conversions, which would come on top of 3,400 planned under the first programme that are either being built from scratch or through redeveloping properties owned by non-profit groups.

A survey by the Concerning Youth Housing Rights Alliance published in May suggests the hostels will have limited appeal with close to 90% of respondents saying they don’t plan to apply. Most are instead prioritising saving up to purchase their own flat one day.

That said, applicants for the BeLIVING hostel outstripped the number of beds 5 to 1.

New BeLIVING resident Chelsea Tung sees her move as both a chance to live with her boyfriend while putting aside money for a flat of their own.

“I’ll be able to save up for a downpayment here,” the 23-year-old insurance agent said.

The programme faces several hurdles.

It may be hard to boost the number of hostels as hotels, previously hit hard by three years of pandemic restrictions, are now seeing more demand.

Non-profit groups that run the hostels are also struggling to find a sustainable financing model.

The group that runs the city’s first hostel built under the government scheme said all its rental income goes towards building maintenance and project management.

“We need to think of ways to cut costs and to raise funds to keep operating,” said Carrie Wong, a supervisor at the Hong Kong Federation of Youth Groups.

Ngai Ming Yip, a professor of housing and urban studies at City University of Hong Kong, said the hostel scheme will only provide a limited amount of supply and only goes so far in ameliorating frustration among the city’s youth.

“The root of the problem is not only housing. Research has shown it’s related to young people’s views towards opportunity, outlook, politics, democracy, everything,” he said.

($1 = 7.8136 Hong Kong dollars)

(Reporting by Clare Jim; Editing by Anne Marie Roantree and Edwina Gibbs)

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China’s deflation pressure builds as consumer prices falter

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s producer prices fell at their fastest pace in over seven years in June, while consumer prices teetered on the edge of deflation, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand.

The worsening factory-gate price deflation and the move by consumer prices towards deflation for the first time since February 2021 bode ill for China’s economic growth.

Momentum in China’s post-pandemic recovery has slowed from a brisk pickup seen in the first quarter with demand for industrial and consumer products weakening, raising concerns about the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

“We think the more challenging deflation environment and sharp slowdown in growth momentum support our view that the PBOC has entered a rate-cutting cycle,” said economists at Barclays in a research note.

The producer price index (PPI) fell for a ninth consecutive month in June, down 5.4% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday, the steepest decline since December 2015. That compared with a 4.6% drop in the previous month and a 5.0% fall tipped in a Reuters poll of analysts.

The consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged year-on-year, compared with the 0.2% gain seen in May, driven by a faster fall in pork prices. That dashed expectation for a 0.2% rise and was the slowest pace since February 2021.

Nomura expects consumer prices to fall 0.5% year-on-year in July, even taking into account a potential rise in service inflation as a result of the summer holiday season.

The weaker-than-expected inflation readings knocked financial markets with the yuan falling and Asian stocks also dipping into the red.

“We expect headline inflation to rise to around 1% by the end of this year. But this would still be soft and won’t constrain the PBOC’s ability to loosen policy further,” said economists at Capital Economics.

“That said, with credit demand weak, and the currency under pressure, we think the bulk of support will come through fiscal policy. We expect only another 10 basis points of policy rate cuts this year.”

Beijing has set a target for average consumer inflation in 2023 of about 3%. Prices rose 2% year-on-year in 2022.

China last month cut policy rates to boost liquidity and vowed to take measures to promote household consumption.

For producer prices, the biggest year-on-year declines were seen in energy, metals and chemicals as domestic and foreign demand weakened.

“The accelerating decline in PPI reflects the still weak real estate and construction sector as well as the strength of industrial production,” said Bruce Pang at chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle.

“However, the year-on-year decline in the PPI is likely to have bottomed out and is expected to narrow gradually in the second half of the year,” said Pang.

China’s central bank is likely to cut lending rates further, said Hu Yuexiao, analyst at Shanghai Securities, who expects reductions in the reserve requirements ratio and interest rates in the second half.

However, economists say small cuts in rates will not have a big impact on demand for loans as families and businesses repair balance sheets damaged by COVID and repay debts, forcing Beijing to rely on fiscal stimulus and other means to spur demand.

(Reporting by Liangping Gao, Ella Cao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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