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Business News

For Hong Kong’s youth, government-backed hostels offer a smidgen of housing hope

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Clare Jim

HONG KONG (Reuters) -For most young adults, moving out of home is a rite of passage but in Hong Kong – notorious for its chronic lack of housing – it’s usually an unaffordable dream.

Silver Ho, a 26-year-old hair stylist assistant who was tired of arguing with his parents, counts himself as one of the lucky ones. Two months ago, he landed a spot at a new so-called “youth hostel”, which offers rooms for young adults that are subsidised by the Hong Kong government and can be rented for up to five years.

His 22 square metre (240 square foot) twin-bed room he’ll share with another person is only a bit smaller than the public housing unit he shared with his parents.

Ho also pays rent of just HK$4,400 ($560) per month, 27% cheaper than a space in a sub-divided flat in the same neighbourhood. Such partitioned units often have no personal bathroom and are barely big enough for a bed.

The hostel programme, ramped up last year under pressure from Chinese President Xi Jinping, is aimed at tackling youth frustration with housing – a factor Beijing believes contributed to the anti-government pro-democracy protests that rocked the city in 2019.

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It’s also aimed at nurturing what the government considers to be good responsible citizens and providing opportunities for self-development.

Applicants – who must be younger than 31, earn less than HK$25,000 ($3,200) a month and have less than HK$380,000 in assets – are chosen after interviews. They are also required to do 200 hours a year of community service or approved activities to keep their rooms.

For Ho, gaining a room at the BeLIVING hostel has meant independence and saving on commuting time. It’s the first to have been converted from a hotel under a new scheme and unlike the city’s three other hostels, is conveniently located in the bustling commercial area of Causeway Bay.

“I now have more time in the salon to learn new skills and practise. That helps increase my chances of getting a promotion,” he said.

HOME TRUTHS

Hong Kong has been the world’s least affordable housing market for 13 consecutive years, according to research firm Demographia, and housing woes are widely blamed for most of the city’s social problems.

Public housing units are available for low-income people but the average waiting time is 5.3 years. Families and the elderly are favoured, so the chances of one going to a young single person are close to nil.

Hong Kong’s hostel programme first started in 2011 but only gained momentum after Xi visited the city last July and said the government must do more to tackle youth housing and job problems while creating more opportunities for self-development.

At the time, the city had only one hostel with 80 beds. Since then, however, the government has pledged to boost supply.

It now aims to provide 3,000 beds in five years through hotel-to-hostel conversions, which would come on top of 3,400 planned under the first programme that are either being built from scratch or through redeveloping properties owned by non-profit groups.

A survey by the Concerning Youth Housing Rights Alliance published in May suggests the hostels will have limited appeal with close to 90% of respondents saying they don’t plan to apply. Most are instead prioritising saving up to purchase their own flat one day.

That said, applicants for the BeLIVING hostel outstripped the number of beds 5 to 1.

New BeLIVING resident Chelsea Tung sees her move as both a chance to live with her boyfriend while putting aside money for a flat of their own.

“I’ll be able to save up for a downpayment here,” the 23-year-old insurance agent said.

The programme faces several hurdles.

It may be hard to boost the number of hostels as hotels, previously hit hard by three years of pandemic restrictions, are now seeing more demand.

Non-profit groups that run the hostels are also struggling to find a sustainable financing model.

The group that runs the city’s first hostel built under the government scheme said all its rental income goes towards building maintenance and project management.

“We need to think of ways to cut costs and to raise funds to keep operating,” said Carrie Wong, a supervisor at the Hong Kong Federation of Youth Groups.

Ngai Ming Yip, a professor of housing and urban studies at City University of Hong Kong, said the hostel scheme will only provide a limited amount of supply and only goes so far in ameliorating frustration among the city’s youth.

“The root of the problem is not only housing. Research has shown it’s related to young people’s views towards opportunity, outlook, politics, democracy, everything,” he said.

($1 = 7.8136 Hong Kong dollars)

(Reporting by Clare Jim; Editing by Anne Marie Roantree and Edwina Gibbs)

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China’s deflation pressure builds as consumer prices falter

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s producer prices fell at their fastest pace in over seven years in June, while consumer prices teetered on the edge of deflation, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand.

The worsening factory-gate price deflation and the move by consumer prices towards deflation for the first time since February 2021 bode ill for China’s economic growth.

Momentum in China’s post-pandemic recovery has slowed from a brisk pickup seen in the first quarter with demand for industrial and consumer products weakening, raising concerns about the health of the world’s second-largest economy.

“We think the more challenging deflation environment and sharp slowdown in growth momentum support our view that the PBOC has entered a rate-cutting cycle,” said economists at Barclays in a research note.

The producer price index (PPI) fell for a ninth consecutive month in June, down 5.4% from a year earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Monday, the steepest decline since December 2015. That compared with a 4.6% drop in the previous month and a 5.0% fall tipped in a Reuters poll of analysts.

The consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged year-on-year, compared with the 0.2% gain seen in May, driven by a faster fall in pork prices. That dashed expectation for a 0.2% rise and was the slowest pace since February 2021.

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Nomura expects consumer prices to fall 0.5% year-on-year in July, even taking into account a potential rise in service inflation as a result of the summer holiday season.

The weaker-than-expected inflation readings knocked financial markets with the yuan falling and Asian stocks also dipping into the red.

“We expect headline inflation to rise to around 1% by the end of this year. But this would still be soft and won’t constrain the PBOC’s ability to loosen policy further,” said economists at Capital Economics.

“That said, with credit demand weak, and the currency under pressure, we think the bulk of support will come through fiscal policy. We expect only another 10 basis points of policy rate cuts this year.”

Beijing has set a target for average consumer inflation in 2023 of about 3%. Prices rose 2% year-on-year in 2022.

China last month cut policy rates to boost liquidity and vowed to take measures to promote household consumption.

For producer prices, the biggest year-on-year declines were seen in energy, metals and chemicals as domestic and foreign demand weakened.

“The accelerating decline in PPI reflects the still weak real estate and construction sector as well as the strength of industrial production,” said Bruce Pang at chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle.

“However, the year-on-year decline in the PPI is likely to have bottomed out and is expected to narrow gradually in the second half of the year,” said Pang.

China’s central bank is likely to cut lending rates further, said Hu Yuexiao, analyst at Shanghai Securities, who expects reductions in the reserve requirements ratio and interest rates in the second half.

However, economists say small cuts in rates will not have a big impact on demand for loans as families and businesses repair balance sheets damaged by COVID and repay debts, forcing Beijing to rely on fiscal stimulus and other means to spur demand.

(Reporting by Liangping Gao, Ella Cao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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US and World News

NATO’s reappointed leader, Jens Stoltenberg

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) -Here are some facts about NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, whose contract will be extended for a further year under a decision by the Western defence alliance:

* Stoltenberg took on the NATO role in 2014 after serving as U.N. climate envoy and prime minister of Norway. He led Norway between 2005-2013 in a coalition headed by the Labour Party, whose youth wing he had led in his 20s.

* He said in February he would not seek another extension of his tenure at NATO, having already had it prolonged three times. The last time he agreed to an extension, he had to give up an appointment as Norway’s central bank governor.

* Stoltenberg was an anti-war activist in his youth who admitted to hurling stones at the U.S. Embassy in the 1970s in protest against the Vietnam war. He studied economics and was widely seen as a pragmatic centrist during a long career in Norwegian politics, including stints as finance minister and minister for trade and energy.

* He pushed his government to mediate, often in secret, on conflicts, including in Columbia and Afghanistan, and resolved a longstanding maritime border dispute with Russia.

* Stoltenberg was dubbed the “Trump-whisperer” for convincing Donald Trump to stick with NATO after the then-U.S. president complained that allies were spending too little on defence and threatened to pull out.

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* The NATO leader has been credited with keeping the alliance together over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and striking a balance between those demanding maximum support for Kyiv and others urging more caution.

SOME COMMENTS ABOUT STOLTENBERG:

* “He thrives on compromise,” Frank Aarebrot, professor of comparative politics at the University of Bergen and an acquaintance of Stoltenberg.

* “He’s got a vast political network and good political intuition … and he will also listen to civil society, not just people within the ‘security cage’,” said Jan Egeland, a former U.N. Under-Secretary General.

SOME COMMENTS BY STOLTENBERG:

“Russia’s use of military force to modify its borders is unacceptable … We will not live in a world where the strongest one prevails.”

“NATO is determined to set the gold standard on addressing the security implications of climate change.” – June 28, 2022

Asked in February this year what words of wisdom he would give to his successor, he replied:

“To keep Europe and North America together.”

(Writing by Philippa Fletcher and Andrew Gray; editing by Gareth Jones)

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The Baltic states and their strategic significance for NATO

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Andrius Sytas

VILNIUS (Reuters) -NATO holds a summit on July 11-12 in Lithuania, one of the three Baltic states that lived under Soviet rule for decades and were among the first NATO countries to send weapons to Kyiv after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Here are some details about the Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania — and their role in NATO:

HISTORY

The Baltics were the last states to become part of the Soviet Union, when they were annexed in 1940, and the first to declare independence in 1990 when the bloc collapsed.

Tens of thousands of people from the three countries were forcibly relocated to Siberia in the 1940s and a post-World War Two uprising against Soviet rule was brutally crushed.

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Many Russians settled in the region during the Soviet era. They and their descendants make up about quarter of the populations of Latvia and Estonia.

VULNERABILITIES

The three Baltic states, which have a combined population of about 6 million, are largely made up of flat forested terrain that is squeezed between the Baltic sea to the west and north and Russia and its ally Belarus in the east.

Russia and Belarus have military bases along the border.

Lithuania is the only one of the three states to have a land link to a fellow NATO ally, Poland. The border, in the so-called Suwalki Gap, is a stretch of forest that lies between Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave.

“Russia considers the Baltic states to be the most vulnerable part of NATO, which would make them a focus of military pressure in the event of a NATO-Russia conflict,” Estonian counterintelligence said in a report in 2023.

RAND Corporation, a U.S. research institute, estimated in 2016 that Russia could overwhelm the three states in 60 hours.

RUSSIA AND UKRAINE

Since 1991, the Baltics have grown more prosperous than Russia and have sought to deepen their ties to Western allies with integration into NATO, the European Union and other Western blocs. They have also built close ties to the United States.

They have been among the most hawkish on how the West and others respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. All three have lobbied NATO to outline a path for Ukraine to become an alliance member and have pressed for tougher sanctions on Moscow.

Vilnius is home to leading members of the Anti-Corruption Foundation, a group established by jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. It is also a refuge for Belarus opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.

The three Baltic states have also attracted journalists who have fled Russia.

DEFENCE

Spurred by Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the three Baltic states sharply increased military spending.

They are in the top 10 in NATO in terms of how much they spend compared to the size of their economies. According to NATO estimates for 2022, all three exceeded the NATO agreement to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defence.

But their economies are small and so are their militaries.

Since 2017, NATO has rotated three battlegroups through the region with a total of about 3,000 troops, provided by Germany, Britain and Canada. The deployment of 1,000 soldiers in each Baltic state was designed as a deterrent to slow any attack.

Since the invasion of Ukraine, the Baltic states have requested the forces deployed are beefed up to 3,000-5,000 troops in each state. They have also requested extra air defences and asked that warplanes that patrol their airspace become a fighting force.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius pledged Germany would permanently deploy 4,000 troops in Lithuania in a few years, once Lithuania builds the infrastructure to house them.

Estonian officials said their defence needs had been met by a British fighting force, which is based outside Estonia but which can be deployed to Estonia within days in a crisis.

Canada has yet to announce any plans to boost its troops that are based in Latvia.

(Reporting by Andrius Sytas in Vilnius; Editing by Edmund Blair)

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Take Five: Mind the curve

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) -Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing are riding high while U.S. inflation data will inform the Federal Reserve’s next move and rate setters in New Zealand and Canada meet.

Here’s a look at the week ahead in markets from Lewis Krauskopf and Nupur Anand in New York, Li Gu in Shanghai, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, and Naomi Rovnick and Amanda Cooper in London.

1/ UNDER PRESSURE

Markets have come around fast to the Fed’s view that instead of being cut anytime soon, rates will remain high for longer. After another brutal bond sell off, focus turns to Wednesday’s U.S. inflation data. Price pressures have been easing but perhaps not fast enough with a July rate hike seen as likely.

May CPI data showed the smallest year-on-year increase since March 2021 – but at 4%, that was still well above the Fed’s 2% target. Just like the latest personal consumption expenditures index showed similarly slowing inflation also above the Fed ‘s comfort zone.

June meeting minutes showed a united Fed agreed to hold rates steady, buy time and assess whether further hikes would be needed. The answer seems yes. And the most deeply inverted bond yield curve since the 1980s suggests investors bracing for another hike also expect Fed tightening raises recession risks.

2/ FIGHTING FIRES

    China is fighting a hi-tech trade war with Washington while grappling with a sputtering economy.

    After months of tightening of restrictions by the U.S. and key allies on chip-related imports, Beijing hit back in recent days with curbs on chip-making metal exports, and a warning of more to come.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to Beijing over the weekend seems to have calmed the waters somewhat – while there was no breakthrough, both sides described their talks as “productive” and agreed to keep channels open “at all levels” for discussions on the economy.

    Things aren’t looking bright on the economic front though.

Data out on Monday showed China’s factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven-and-a-half years in June, while consumer inflation was at its slowest since 2021. Thursday’s trade numbers are expected to see a continued decline in exports – all pointing to lacklustre demand.

    Hopes for major Politburo policy support at month-end seem to have faded. Goldman Sachs said that conversations with their local clients showed they now expected to see measures aimed only at easing economic headwinds, rather than generating strong growth.

3/ PAUSE AND EFFECT

Skips, pauses and pivots dominate monetary policy conversations as persistent inflation has seemingly consigned central-bank forward guidance to the dustbin of history. Increasingly, policymakers say decisions depend on future data, making it harder for traders to formulate a view on the outlook.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) – one of the first major central banks to start tightening policy – has raised rates by 525 basis points since October 2021 – the most among the G10. In May, it signalled it had finished raising rates, but at its meeting on Wednesday longer-term clarity may remain out of reach with inflation running at 6.7% and the economy in recession.

The Bank of Canada, meeting the same day, is in the data-dependent corner, leaving markets split down the middle on whether it will raise or pause.

4/BANK EARNINGS

U.S. banking giants sailed through the Fed’s annual health check in late June, highlighting they have enough capital to weather a severe economic downturn.

But now it’s time for earnings, with JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all scheduled to report second quarter earnings on July 14.

The picture looks not so rosy with results predicted to be weighed down by sluggish dealmaking and trading revenue while a dearth of investment-banking activity has prompted banks to lay off thousands of employees.

Meanwhile, the largest U.S. lenders are expected to keep tightening credit standards given the uncertain economic environment, particularly after bank failures earlier this year. Analysts focus on banks’ lending outlook and how much they set aside in rainy-day funds to cushion losses from souring loans.

5/ TROUBLE IN CREDIT LAND

Debt-laden companies are running into trouble.

Embattled French retailer Casino, with 3 billion euros ($3.3 billion) of debt maturing in the next two years, has until end-July to agree a restructuring plan.

Britain’s Thames Water, with 14 billion pounds of borrowings, said on Monday investors had agreed to invest 750 million pounds ($960 million) – but warned it would need more funding in the years ahead.

Sweden’s commercial landlord SBB is fighting for survival.

In the U.S., junk-rated companies have to refinance almost $1.2 trillion of borrowings by 2026, according to S&P Global Ratings. At the same time, the market for collateralised loan obligations – vehicles formed by specialist asset managers that buy about 60% of all junk-rated loans and package them up into bonds – has almost shuddered to a halt.

Stock market valuations do not reflect any credit-related worries yet – but that may just be the eye of a storm.

(Compiled by Karin Strohecker; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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Westpac hires RBA assistant gov Luci Ellis as chief economist

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia’s central bank is set to lose a top official to the private sector amid a broader shake-up that could soon see its chief replaced.

Westpac announced on Monday that it has appointed Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) assistant governor Luci Ellis as Westpac’s chief economist, starting on Oct. 9, and she will replace Bill Evans, who has been the chief economist since 1991.

Ellis’s departure from RBA comes amid the biggest overhaul of the institution in decades, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers set to decide this month whether to extend Governor Philip Lowe’s current term following a review.

Lowe has been under a cloud since repeatedly saying in 2021 that interest rates would not rise until 2024, only to reverse course and hike in mid-2022 when inflation unexpectedly surged.

A review commissioned by the government in April outlined a range of reforms from a more focused policy mandate, to fewer policy meetings and a separate board for the bank’s day-to-day operations.

Ellis was head of the RBA’s Financial Stability department for eight years before assuming the Assistant Governor role in 2016.

Other recent high-profile departures from the bank include Jonathan Kearns, former head of Domestic Markets department who joined investment firm Challenger in March.

Terry McCrann, a News Corp columnist and veteran commentator on RBA matters, wrote in The Australian newspaper on Monday without citing sources that the government would announce the appointment of the next governor later this week and that Lowe would not have his term extended.

A spokesperson for the Treasurer declined Reuters’ request for comment.

(Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Sam Holmes)

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US, Ukraine’s top diplomats hold ‘important’ call before NATO summit

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) – U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said late on Sunday they held a phone call to discuss this week’s NATO summit and Kyiv’s counteroffensive campaign to reclaim land taken by Russia.

“I had an important discussion with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba today ahead of this week’s NATO Summit,” Blinken said on Twitter.

The U.S. Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a separate statement that the two diplomats discussed also “progress in Ukraine’s counteroffensive.”

Kuleba said on Twitter that the call was to work out details ahead of the NATO summit, which starts on Tuesday in Vilnius.

“I had a productive call with Secretary Blinken ahead of Vilnius,” Kuleba said on Twitter. “With 48 hours left, we are working to make its final decisions a win for all: Ukraine, NATO, and global security.”

Ukraine is hoping to receive a clear signal on its NATO membership prospects in Vilnius. The White House said on Friday that President Joe Biden and fellow leaders of the U.S.-led alliance will discuss what steps Ukraine must complete.

(Reporting by Lidia Kelly in Melbourne and Urvi Dugar in Bengaluru; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)

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China’s state planner holds meeting with private firms, including Baidu

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

(Corrects to clarify Li Qiang is head of the State Council, not state planner)

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s state planner said on Monday it held a meeting with private firms including Baidu and LONGi Green Energy Technology.

The next step will be to continue to improve the communication mechanism with private enterprises and address the specific demands raised by them in a targeted manner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said in a statement.

This is the second round of dialogue between the NDRC and private firms. Chinese Premier Li Qiang heads the State Council, or cabinet, which oversees the state planner. He has been attempting to reassure the private sector as part of his drive to re-invigorate China’s post-pandemic economy.

“Private entrepreneurs or enterprises will enjoy a better environment and broader space for development … we will create a level playing field for all kinds of market entities and we will make further efforts to support private entrepreneurs to grow and thrive,” Li said during an address in March.

(Reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Muralikumar Anantharaman)

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Analysis-U.S. military deals not enough to wean India off Russian arms yet

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Krishn Kaushik and David Brunnstrom

NEW DELHI/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – India’s multi-billion-dollar purchases of U.S. arms are less about shifting its reliance on Russian defence equipment and moving towards the West – it’s more about developing its own domestic weapons industry, security officials and analysts say.

India is the world’s biggest arms importer but almost all of its major weapons purchases now include provisions for joint manufacture or technology transfer, irrespective of which country it is dealing with.

Also, Russia’s war in Ukraine has disrupted some military supplies to India, reinforcing New Delhi’s long-term desire to diversify imports or replace them with home-built hardware, Indian defence officials said.

India bought weapons worth over $60 billion in the last 20 years, of which 65% or nearly $39 billion were from Russia, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data.

Defence Minister Rajnath Singh has said that India intends to order weapons from the domestic arms industry worth over $100 billion over the next decade.

“It is a reality, that we have to reduce dependence on Russia,” said a senior Indian defence officer working on future capabilities of the Indian military, who declined to be identified. “But that is part two. The part one is the effort to get out of the import business.”

India announced significant purchases of U.S. defence equipment during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s state visit to Washington last month, including an over one billion dollar order for GE engines for fighter jets. A possible $3 billion deal for MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones is also being discussed.

In line with New Delhi’s desire for self-reliance in defence and Modi’s flagship “Make in India” policy, the jet engine deal includes joint manufacturing in the future, while the assembly and maintenance of the SeaGuardians will likely be in India.

Eric Garcetti, the U.S. ambassador to India, said Washington had earlier paid “lip service” but was now easing India’s access to military technologies. He said the U.S. was “leaning in with technology” sharing more with India than it had with some its closest allies.

However, the moves so far will not be sufficient to end New Delhi’s reliance on Russia while stringent U.S. rules governing the sharing of military technology limit future possibilities for now.

“Nobody gives you everything. They keep you at least a screwdriver away from having it fully,” said a second senior official from India’s defence ministry, who also spoke on condition of anonymity.

Arzan Tarapore, an Indian security expert at Stanford University, said the deals announced during Modi’s visit “do not in themselves represent an Indian shift away from Russia.”

“A big shift away from Russia will take multiple decades,” he said.

GAP WITH CHINA

India still uses mostly Russian technology for traditional arms. Tarapore said that the biggest potential for U.S.-India collaboration should be on new systems that India doesn’t already have.

India’s main aim is to narrow the technological gap with better-armed arch-rival China, with which it has a tense relationship, and which is also closely allied with traditional foe Pakistan.

One problem for India is that Russia’s war in Ukraine has severely dented Moscow’s ability to deliver weapons and equipment.

India’s air force recently informed a parliamentary panel that Russia would delay deliveries of spares for Sukhoi Su-30 MKI and MiG-29 jet fighter planes. A big-ticket item, believed to be the remaining two of the five Russian S-400 air defence systems India bought for nearly $5.5 billion in 2018, has also been delayed, it said.

India has also been expecting to receive two nuclear-powered attack submarines from Russia over the next few years, but these might also be delayed, defence officials said.

Such problems have reinforced India’s resolve to become less dependent on Russia, but it does not want to rely on any one nation for its weapons purchases, they said.

It is buying French fighter jets, Israeli drones, American jet engines and potentially German submarines. Over time these purchases will reduce the share of Russian military technology used by India, but this would take at least two decades, Indian officials said.

LEAST LIMITATIONS

Bill Greenwalt, a former senior Pentagon official for industrial policy, said the days of U.S. and Russian domination of the global defence market and being able to control defence technology was coming to end, but what would replace it was “still a work in progress.”

He said India could become frustrated by the strict U.S. export control system for armaments and the restrictions it places both on technology sharing and its ability to develop systems it acquires.

“I expect India will pursue cooperation with the West with those countries that can transfer technology … with the least amount of limitations on their use,” he said.

Exports to India must satisfy stringent U.S. International Trafficking in Arms (ITAR) regulations and the two countries are not treaty allies – which for instance means the level of technology sharing provided under the AUKUS deal to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines is not on the cards.

Even so, Modi’s U.S. visit has been hailed by both sides as bringing the relationship to a new level. Besides the defence deals, the two countries also signed agreements on chips, space, artificial intelligence and critical minerals.

India is also a member of the QUAD alliance with the U.S., Japan and Australia, which deepens its ties with the West, but does not replace its decades-old relationship with Russia.

Derek Grossman, a Rand Corporation defence analyst, said the U.S. would always be cautious in what military hardware and technology it shares with India because of this.

Even if India can transition away from Moscow over the next few decades, Grossman said, “the U.S. will still have suspicions about how their systems are being used and how that might help the Russians in some sort of way, because of that close India-Russia partnership.”

“India is going to be opportunistic in this situation and accept whatever the U.S. is willing to offer. But I don’t think they are willing to give up what they have with Russia.”

(Reporting by Krishn Kaushik in NEW DELHI, David Brunnstrom in WASHINGTON, Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

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Marketmind: China disinflation a mix of good and bad

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole

China’s inflation data for June surprised on the downside, with consumer prices slipping 0.2% on the month to leave annual CPI dead flat. Producer prices fell 5.4% on the year, the sharpest decline since late 2015.

On the face of it, this implies there is plenty of scope to ease monetary and fiscal policy further. Yet it also underlines the scale of the challenge that Beijing faces in avoiding an outright deflationary spiral. Japan’s experience shows what deflation combined with a shrinking population can mean for an economy.

The soft data saw the yuan lose early gains but Chinese blue chips are still up, in part thanks to hopes that Beijing is relaxing its regulatory grip on the tech sector.

Globally, a deflationary pulse from China could over time help to offset service-driven inflation in developed nations. Disinflation in goods is a major reason analysts expect coming U.S. CPI data to show a slowdown in June.

Headline U.S. inflation is forecast at 3.1%, a remarkable turnaround from 9.1% a year earlier even if core measures are proving stickier. That would be welcome news for the Treasury market after its recent drubbing.

Some funds were clearly long of bonds in anticipation of an “end of the tightening cycle” rally that never materialised, and got badly squeezed when the market moved against them.

The fact that U.S. 10-year yields are still testing 4.09% despite the downside miss on headline payrolls suggests the market is still long and there’s further pain ahead.

One side effect of the surge in bond yields has been a shake-out of carry trades in the forex market. Every investor and their mum has borrowed cheaply in yen to invest in high yielders, with the Mexican peso likely the most crowded of all the trades.

Rising yields in the developed world make emerging markets look relatively less attractive and can pressure those positions. It was notable late last week that Mexican bonds suddenly sold off and the peso slid 2.6% on the yen over two sessions – although that follows months of gains.

Such trades are usually done by selling yen for dollars and dollars for pesos, or whatever the target currency is, so when the positions are reversed it leads to selling of dollars for yen.

This was likely a major reason the dollar dropped 1.3% on the yen on Friday, and why any major unwinding of carry trades would drag the dollar down even if its own fundamentals seemed sound.

Still, a sustained unwinding seems unlikely unless and until the Bank of Japan finally gives up on its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The BOJ’s next meeting is on July 28 and many western banks are tipping some form of tightening, although the BoJ itself has shown scant sign of gratifying them. Were it to happen, it would be a seismic event for markets.

Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:

– Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt speak at the annual Mansion House dinner

– Fed speakers at Monday events include San Francisco President Mary Daly, Cleveland President Loretta Mester and Atlanta President Raphael Bostic

(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Edmund Klamann)

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What people are saying about Ant Group’s $984 million fine and share buyback

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) – China’s Ant Group has announced a surprise share buyback that values the fintech giant at $78.5 billion, well below the $315 billion touted in an abandoned IPO in 2020, in a move that may let some investors exit.

The announcement came after China’s financial regulator on Friday fined the Alibaba Group affiliate $984 million for violating laws and regulations, a move seen by many industry observers as a sign that a regulatory crackdown on the country’s technology sector is over.

Here is what people are saying about the news:

GARY NG, ASIA PACIFIC SENIOR ECONOMIST AT NATIXIS IN HONG KONG:

“The major pressure that a lot of these companies have been facing is really this bad sentiment. There are a few things that have changed from last Friday. The first is that some companies have been fined a significant amount but I think that offers, like a certain comfort to the market that possibly this regulatory tightening is actually getting to the end or basically cannot be worse than before.

“And second, of course, we’re talking about the share buyback plan. I think that also helps boosting the sentiment of the share price.”

KENNY NG, SECURITIES STRATEGIST AT CHINA EVERBRIGHT SECURITIES IN HONG KONG:

“Ant Group has announced a repurchase plan, which reflects a significant decrease in the company’s valuation compared to its previous preparation for IPO. However, this news did not cause a drop in Alibaba’s stock price, but instead showed a clear upward trend. This is believed to be mainly due to the fact that the People’s Bank of China imposed a fine of 7.123 billion renminbi on Ant Group and its subsidiaries last Friday, and investors anticipate that the regulatory crackdown on Alibaba that has lasted for several years is coming to an end.

“Looking back over the past few years, Alibaba’s stock price has experienced a significant decline, mainly due to concerns in the market about the negative impact of industry regulation on the company. If investors can eliminate their concerns about this aspect of Alibaba, it will help the company’s stock price rebound in the future.”

DICKIE WONG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AT KINGSTON SECURITIES IN HONG KONG:

“Their share prices have strongly rebound today mainly driven by the expectation that regulatory pressure from mainland government will ease. Ant Group is on the right track to achieve their final target of an IPO.”

SUMEET SINGH, DIRECTOR AT AEQUITAS RESEARCH IN SINGAPORE WHO PUBLISHES ON SMARTKARMA:

“I don’t think the valuation drop is going to hamper their chances of going public, it’s a different company now with changed profitability and growth dynamics. In addition a lot of other tech darlings have also corrected by a lot over the past two years, so they aren’t alone. With the regulatory episode now behind it investors can be a little more certain that it won’t face another regulatory headwind anytime soon.”

OSHADHI KUMARASIRI, ANALYST AT LIGHTSTREAM RESEARCH IN COLOMBO:

“This means IPO is essentially put on hold. According to the company, the reason for the buyback is providing liquidity to existing investors and attracting and retaining talented individuals through employee incentives. Ant could have achieved both these objectives through an IPO.”

(Reporting By Xie Yu in Hong Kong, Yantoultra Ngui in Singapore and Scott Murdoch in Sydney; Compiled by Anne Marie Roantree; Editing by Jamie Freed)

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China urges ‘practical’ US action on sanctions after Yellen talks

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Joe Cash

BEIJING (Reuters) – China on Monday called on the U.S. to take “practical action” in response to its “major concerns” about sanctions on Chinese firms, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrapped up more than 10 hours of meetings with senior officials in Beijing.

Yellen came to Beijing seeking to ease tensions between the world’s two superpowers, and while there was no breakthrough, both sides described their talks as “productive” and agreed to keep channels open “at all levels” for talks on the economy.

The visit boosts chances for a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and China’s President Xi Jinping later this year, possibly at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in San Francisco in November.

Before departing on Sunday, Yellen told reporters that she and her Chinese counterparts had “aired significant disagreements” in their meetings, a sentiment reflected in a readout from China’s finance ministry on Monday morning.

China “requires” the U.S. to “cease the suppression of Chinese enterprises, lift bans on Xinjiang-related products, and take concrete steps to respond to China’s major concerns in economic relations between the two countries,” the ministry wrote.

The United States has imposed sanctions on some companies for using forced labour in the far-western region of Xinjiang.

Beijing denies the use of forced labour and any other abuses there.

The ministry also said China believed its development was an opportunity rather than a risk to the U.S. and that “strengthening cooperation between China and the United States is a realistic need and the correct choice of the two countries.”

“The re-commencement of senior-level Sino-U.S. talks in diversified areas could open up room for more cooperation on bilateral and global issues,” said Hong Kong-based Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang LaSalle.

“I expect more working-level communications ahead, on a range of topics where there is more consensus than disagreements, such as climate change and the tariff reduction list, among others,” he added.

(Reporting by Joe Cash and Ellen Zhang; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Stephen Coates)

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Analysis-Bonds back in a tailspin as ‘higher for longer’ narrative hits

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Yoruk Bahceli and Dhara Ranasinghe

(Reuters) – Government bond markets from Europe to the United States and Australia are in a tailspin as the prospect of higher interest rates sparks a rout in longer-dated bonds, hurting investors seeking higher returns after a lacklustre first half.

German and British two-year borrowing costs touched their highest levels since 2008 this week, U.S. peers hit highs not seen since 2007, and Australia’s bond yields rose to decade highs.

Crucially, while recent rises in borrowing costs had been driven by shorter-dated debt, longer-dated yields have led this week’s push higher, rising over 20 basis points (bps) in Germany, the United States and Britain.

The latest drubbing in the world’s biggest bond markets, which last year suffered a record rout, does not yet point to any dysfunction in the markets themselves, investors said.

But in echoes of the volatile conditions seen during March’s banking crisis, trading in euro zone benchmark German government bond futures were briefly interrupted on Thursday when bond yields spiked.

Investors took hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve June meeting minutes, strong U.S. services sector data and private payrolls numbers earlier this week as signs that the Fed — and other central banks — may have to keep rates higher for longer.

Weaker-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data pushed two-year yields off their highs on Friday, but did little to soothe the selloff in longer-dated bonds.

“Markets are saying that inflation is too high, and growth is still too strong, and we need more rate hikes,” said Mike Riddell, senior portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors.

“Central banks seem to be encouraging markets to believe this too, suggesting more hikes are ahead.”

Prospects for a November Fed hike had risen on Thursday in addition to a July move and traders reduced bets on cuts next year, though those moves reversed on Friday.

In Europe, traders bet the Bank of England would hike rates as high as 6.5% and briefly bet on a small probability that the European Central Bank will hike to 4.25%, from previous expectations for 4%.

HIGHER FOR LONGER

Germany’s 10-year yield, which staged its biggest daily jump since March on Thursday, was eyeing its biggest weekly jump since last September, up around 23 bps.

Bund futures on Thursday posted the biggest volume yet seen for the September contract, IFR analysts said.

U.S. and British 10-year yields were also set to end the week more than 20 bps higher.

That’s a sign that investors are reconsidering what “higher for longer” rates means for longer-term borrowing costs, said Nordea chief analyst Jan von Gerich.

As longer-dated borrowing costs rose faster than shorter ones, the closely watched U.S. yield curve measured by the gap between two- and 10-year Treasury yields was set to end the week steeper for the first time since early May.

It was at minus 88 bps, having flattened to minus 109.5 bps earlier this week in the biggest inversion since 1981.

    “With long-dated bonds the issue is that yield curves have become so inverted it becomes hard to like long-term bonds unless you can convince yourself that rates will come down in your investment horizon,” said Mark Dowding, chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management, who holds a neutral position on U.S. and euro zone bonds.

In Germany, the 10-year yield rising above 2.5% marked a “significant development”, said Gael Fichan, head of fixed income at Syz Group, noting that was a level that had acted as resistance preventing higher yields in the shorter run.

Analysts noted 5% on two-year and 4% on 10-year Treasuries — levels breached on Thursday — as other key milestones.

“It is crucial to recognise that the repricing in the 7-10 year sector, where long positions are concentrated, is particularly susceptible to a stronger and sustained higher for longer narrative, potentially leading to losses,” Fichan said.

ING said earlier on Friday that this week’s data was strong enough to push yields higher even if jobs numbers interrupt the moves.

No doubt, the renewed selloff throws a curve ball at bond investors, who have been disappointed so far after last year’s record 13% losses.

The hope was for better returns in the second half of 2023, but global government bonds were down 1% this week through Thursday, cutting this year’s returns to a meagre 0.7%. Global equities, while down 1% this week, are still up 11% this year.

“There is a concern that if data remains strong, if central banks need to keep going further, then we are going to see a redux of 2022,” BlueBay’s Dowding said.

“It won’t be as bad as that, but higher rates and higher yields could lead to negative returns and pressure returns on equity markets.”

(Reporting by Yoruk Bahceli and Dhara Ranasinghe; Additional reporting by Samuel Indyk and Harry Robertson; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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Business leaders left in limbo by rate hike impact lag

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

By Leigh Thomas and Mathieu Rosemain

AIX-EN-PROVENCE, France (Reuters) -An unusually long lag in the time interest rate hikes are taking to feed through to the economy has left corporate leaders guessing whether to prepare for a hard or soft landing.

Although central banks in the United States and Europe have raised interest rates at the fastest pace in decades in an effort to tame inflation, most economies have so far escaped the painful recessions triggered by previous tightening cycles.

For corporate leaders at a weekend economics conference in the southern French town of Aix-en-Provence, that delay has left them questioning when and how much higher borrowing costs will affect them, especially if central banks keep hiking.

“There’s no real consensus at the moment about the increase in interest rates among economic actors,” Jeremie Delecourt, chief operating officer at French private equity fund Ardian, told Reuters.

“The fact everyone is asking the question is interesting, there are those who are optimistic and others who are pessimistic,” he added.

In the euro zone, the peak is near after a combined 4 percentage points rise in the past year, ECB policymaker and French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on a panel at the conference.

But he also said that rates would be left high for as long as necessary to ensure that inflation is headed back to the European Central Bank’s 2% target by 2025.

The ECB raised interest rates to their highest level in 22 years last month and promised another hike this month, with possibly another in September.

Jean-Louis Girodolle, head Lazard in France, told a panel that there was a danger central banks would fight inflation with the same zeal they fought deflation and go too far.

“The scenario that I fear is that we get the landing wrong, the opposite of ‘whatever it takes’, the of investment bank head said, referring to former ECB president Mario Draghi’s 2012 pledge to steer the euro zone through its debt crisis.

‘GOING TO BITE’

The full impact of rate hikes is taking more time than usual because many households and companies entered the new era of higher borrowing costs with solid cash levels, the result of strong savings during the pandemic.

Additionally, labour markets are strong on both sides of the Atlantic and corporate profits have so far held up, while housing markets are generally cooling but not in a tailspin.

“The transmission (of monetary policy) is coming late, but it’s going to bite, I would say towards the end of this year,” said Aylin Somersan Coqui, head of German export credit insurer Allianz Trade.

The pinch from higher borrowing costs would come just as corporate profits and the broader economy starts to falter, while elections in many countries next year would make it hard for governments to help struggling firms, she added.

“I see quite a bit of optimism in the short term, but I see a lot of downside risks if there is a policy mistake, especially from the central banks,” she added.

Though corporate defaults are on the rise in many countries they remain below pre-pandemic levels as many firms’ debt is in cheap, fixed-rate loans taken out when rates were ultra low.

While refinancing at much higher levels in the coming months could be a challenge for the weakest balance sheets, the increase in borrowing costs would come gradually for most firms, said Daniel Barneix, head of AFTE association for French corporate treasurers.

“We can expect debt levels to be adjusted on a case by case basis without triggering a systemic crisis,” said Barneix, who is also deputy finance director at French building materials group Saint-Gobain.

Although inflation is receding in most countries after last year’s supply-chain and energy price shocks, interest rate hawks say that its better to err on the side of going too high rather than not tackling high inflation.

“You should really avoid being dovish because then there is a big risk that inflation will come back and it will be really hard and long-lasting,” Veronika Grimm, one of the German government’s chief economic experts, told Reuters.

(Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Alexander Smith)

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Gucci-owner Kering paid $3.8 billion for French fragrance label Creed – FT

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) -Gucci-owner Kering paid 3.5 billion euros ($3.83 billion) for acquiring high-end French fragrance label Creed in June, the Financial Times reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.

The French luxury group made the acquisition since flagging intentions earlier in the year to create an in-house cosmetics business.

The all-cash deal to acquire 100% of the fragrance house from funds controlled by BlackRock and by the company’s current chairman Javier Ferran is expected to close in the second half this year.

Part of the reason the details of the transaction were not provided earlier was that the companies did not want to broadcast Creed’s steep profit margins, according to the FT report.

Kering and Creed did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

($1 = 0.9131 euros)

(Reporting by Urvi Dugar in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich)

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China should shift stimulus to consumption, ease residency curbs -PBOC adviser

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

BEIJING (Reuters) – China should shift the focus of its stimulus from investment to consumption and further loosen urban residency curbs to boost migrant workers’ spending power, a central bank policy adviser said.

“The target of our stimulus should shift from investment to consumption, which can more directly correspond to our actual economic bottlenecks and weaknesses,” Cai Fang, an adviser to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), said at a business forum on the weekend, according to a transcript of his speech.

Reforms of China’s system on residence permits, or “hukou”, will boost the consumption for 180 million rural migrant workers who had entered cities, said Cai, who is also an influential economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top state think tank.

That could lift migrant workers’ spending by more than 2 trillion yuan ($276.59 billion), he said.

China has been pushing reforms to gradually loosen its grip on urban residence permits – in place since the 1950s – to support urbanisation. The residence permit have been criticised for impeding internal migration and widening the urban-rural divide.

The government has promised to prioritise a consumption recovery this year, but has so far not delivered large-scale subsidies for consumers, while local authorities still invest heavily in infrastructure projects to spur growth.

China’s cabinet met to discuss measures to boost economic growth at end-June and investors are looking to an expected Politburo meeting in July for clues on policy direction.

($1 = 7.2308 Chinese yuan)

(Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by Sam Holmes)

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CBP officers seize ammunition at the Ysleta Port of Entry

by US Border Patrol July 10, 2023
By US Border Patrol

EL PASO, Texas – U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers conducting outbound enforcement operations at the Ysleta Port of Entry seized 3,150 rounds of ammunition from an individual traveling to Mexico.

Ammunition seized by CBP officers.
Ammunition seized by CBP officers.

“CBP officers conduct outbound inspections, targeting the movement of unreported currency, weapons, ammunition and other violations,” said CBP Ysleta Port Director Arnoldo Gomez. “This is an important part of the CBP enforcement mission.” 

The incident occurred on July 6, when CBP officers selected a vehicle driven by a 19-year-old male, U.S. citizen for a routine inspection. During inspection of the vehicle, CBP officers discovered several ammunition boxes hidden underneath the backseat. Further search resulted in the discovery of 63 boxes containing 3,150 rounds of .45 caliber ammunition located thought the vehicle. 

CBP officers seized the ammunition along with the vehicle and the individual was turned over to Homeland Security Investigations for further investigation.

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US NTSB probes Boeing 737 MAX engine fire at Newark Airport

by Reuters July 10, 2023
By Reuters

(This July 7 story has been corrected to clarify that FAA said the engine fire extinguishers were activated after landing, in paragraph 4)

By David Shepardson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board said on Friday it is investigating an engine fire last week on a Boeing 737-900 MAX plane operated by United Airlines at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey.

The NTSB said a fire warning light indicator came on after United Airlines Flight 2376 from Fort Lauderdale, Florida landed at Newark on June 28, prompting the crew to shut down one of the engines.

There was no visible smoke or fire from the engine so the airplane was towed to the gate, where maintenance personnel saw evidence of a fuel leak from the engine and heat damage and soot on the engine cases and external surfaces, the NTSB added.

Passengers exited from the plane in a normal fashion in Newark, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. The FAA said after the plane landed the flight crew activated the engine fire extinguishers as a precaution.

United said it is investigating but declined further comment. Boeing referred questions to the NTSB and United.

The plane was delivered in 2020 and the LEAP-1B engine was built by French-American jet engine maker CFM International, which is co-owned by General Electric and France’s Safran. CFM said it “is supporting the NTSB’s investigation.”

(Reporting by Kanishka Singh and David Shepardson in Washington; Editing by Will Dunham, Leslie Adler anda Kim Coghill)

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Heavy rains pound US Northeast, with more storms on the way

by Reuters July 9, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) – Heavy rainstorms poured over parts of New York and Pennsylvania on Sunday, with first responders rescuing people stuck in vehicles along flooded roadways and with more wet weather on the way for the U.S. Northeast.

U.S. Representative Mike Lawler, who represents New York’s Hudson Valley area north of New York City, posted several videos and photographs on Twitter showing rushing flood waters in Stony Point, a small town on the Hudson River about 40 miles north of Manhattan.

“Significant flooding in Stony Point – homes and cars – and many people evacuated,” he wrote.

Similar flooding occurred in Pennsylvania. The Weather Channel showed video of flooded-out roads in Quakertown, located about 15 miles southeast of Allentown, where at least one stranded driver needed to be rescued by the fire department.

Bryan Jackson, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center, said a weather pattern more typical of cooler months had built over the Canadian province of Ontario and was interacting with the regular summer moisture.

Central Pennsylvania and southern New York bore the brunt of the rain on Sunday. The weather service predicted widespread and possibly catastrophic flash flooding for parts of New England on Monday.

The prediction center issued its first-ever high-risk warning, the highest level on a four-step scale, for the area surrounding Burlington, Vermont, on Monday, Jackson said.

“We expect considerable to locally catastrophic impacts,” Jackson said.

The weather service urged people in some vulnerable areas to seek higher ground immediately.

On Sunday, the area near West Point, New York, home to the United States Military Academy, was under a flash flood emergency, having already received 9 inches (23 cm) of rain, according to radar estimates, Jackson said.

Blocked roads in New York’s Orange County, which is home to West Point, prevented rescue teams from reaching isolated people, the New York Times reported, citing a county emergency management official.

(Reporting by Brendan O’Brien in Chicago and Daniel Trotta in Carlsbad, California; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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China mutual funds cut fees as regulator targets $3.7 trillion sector

by Reuters July 9, 2023
By Reuters

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -More than a dozen major mutual fund companies in China cut fees in roughly 1,500 fund products on Monday as regulators started reforming fee practices in the $3.7 trillion industry in an effort to reduce costs to investors.

The money managers, including China Asset Management Co and Bank of Communications Schroder Fund Management Co, said in separate statements that management fees in certain equity-focused products would be cut to 1.2% of fund assets, from 1.5% previously. The custodian fee would be reduced to 0.2% of assets from 0.25%.

The cuts, which the fund companies said in identical phrasing were “aimed at reducing investors’ costs in managing their wealth”, come after China’s securities regulator on Saturday vowed to guide mutual fund fees lower.

Chinese mutual funds on average charge investors higher fees than peers in developed markets such as the United States, according to Morningstar.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said it had drafted reform plans after listening to opinions from market participants, and would optimise mutual funds’ fee-charging model and steadily lower the industry’s fee rates.

Fund management fees would be capped at 1.2% of assets and custodian fees at 0.2%, state media reported.

“The fee cuts will hit fund companies’ earnings in the short-term,” with the pain felt the most by those heavily focused on active equity products, said Ivan Shi, head of research at fund consultancy Z-Ben Advisors.

“It’s not yet clear if lower fee costs would facilitate fund product sales.” The reform comes as regulators also seek to limit executive pay at fund management companies and banks in a so-called “common prosperity” drive designed to reduce wealth gaps. Fund managers are often blamed by retail investors in a sluggish market for pocketing fat fees despite their underperformance. An index tracking the performance of China’s actively-managed equity funds tumbled 22.3% last year, more than the 15.1% fall in the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index. Nevertheless, the industry collected 144.1 billion yuan in management fees in 2022, up 1.7% from a year earlier, according to TX Investment Consulting Co.

The industry’s total assets under management doubled over the past four years to 26.68 trillion yuan ($3.70 trillion) at the end of March.

FEE CUT

FullGoal Fund Management Co said it would cut fees on 119 products starting Monday, while Harvest Fund Management announced cuts for 113 products.

Other fund houses announcing fee reductions include ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co and Zhong Ou Asset Management Co, which is partly owned by Warburg Pincus.

In Saturday’s statement, the CSRC said fee cuts would bring fund industry’s growth more in line with investors’ interest.

The reform will be rolled out in several stages, with fund companies to be prodded initially to lower fees for equity products, and launch more types of funds such as those with floating fee rates, official Shanghai Securities News reported over the weekend.

In later stages, the watchdog will seek to lower trading fees of fund products, and also regulate fee practices in fund distribution.

The government has been mulling the reform for some time.

The CSRC published opinions in April last year to promote high-quality growth of the mutual fund industry.

China’s state council, or cabinet, issued policies last September to encourage fee reductions in the securities and fund industries.

($1 = 7.2205 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Reporting by Samuel Shen and Tom Westbrook; Additional reporting by Selena Li; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Jamie Freed)

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Japan logs current account surplus for fourth month as trade gap narrows

by Reuters July 9, 2023
By Reuters

TOKYO (Reuters) -Japan’s current account surplus more than doubled year-on-year in May, in a fourth straight month of gains, as the country’s trade deficit narrowed and income gains from its overseas investment expanded, Ministry of Finance data showed on Monday.

The current account surplus reached 1.86 trillion yen ($13.08 billion) in May, compared with 773 billion yen in the same month a year earlier and just short of economists’ median forecast for a surplus of 1.88 trillion yen in a Reuters poll.

A breakdown of the data showed the trade deficit narrowed to 1.2 trillion yen from 1.8 trillion yen in May 2022, a ministry official said.

The primary income surplus hit 3.6 trillion yen, up from 3.1 trillion yen in the same month a year earlier, resulting in an overall surplus for a fourth straight month.

Dividend payments from overseas business affiliates in sectors such as automobiles and interest payments from securities investments helped drive up income gains.

Over the past year, the current account data has highlighted the pain that high energy costs and a weak yen have inflicted on the world’s third biggest economy, which relies heavily on imports of fuel and raw materials.

Japan’s position as an export powerhouse has also waned in recent years, in part because companies have moved production overseas, making overseas investment a pillar of the country’s earning power.

($1 = 142.2200 yen)

(Reporting by Tetsushi Kajimoto; Editing by Sonali Paul)

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SHOSHANA BRYEN: Biden Admin Hypocrisy Leaves US Ally Hanging Out To Dry

by The Daily Caller July 9, 2023
By The Daily Caller

SHOSHANA BRYEN: Biden Admin Hypocrisy Leaves US Ally Hanging Out To Dry

Shoshana Bryen on July 9, 2023

Summer questions are like gnats. You can swipe at them, but they don’t go away. So, take them on.

The Biden administration has axed science and technology research grants for Ariel University in the West Bank – because, the administration spokesman said, “Engaging… with Israel in geographic areas… subject to final status negotiations is inconsistent with US foreign policy.”

Two questions: first, how is this not BDS – boycotting Israeli production (intellectual or physical) emanating from Judea and Samaria?  Second, is US cooperation with Palestinians in territories awaiting final status since 1949’s illegal Jordanian occupation “inconsistent with US foreign policy” as well? The US will send $500 million to the PA between 2021 and 2024. This is in addition to restoration of the US to the position of largest donor to UNRWA, with a donation of $344 million in 2022.

Speaking of restoring funds, the US has also restored funding to EcoHealth Alliance, a US-based entity that engaged in bat research at the Wuhan Institute of Technology when it was illegal in the US. Its director was a longtime collaborator with China’s “bat lady,”  Shi Zhengli. Question: What?

Shift gears a bit.

According to a report by an Israeli security analyst, State Department personnel asked for “clarifications” over Israel’s use of a UAV to kill 3 West Bank militants. “’The introduction of armed UAVs raises concern over the potential loosening of rules of engagement in an area that needs to see de-escalation,’ a U.S. official told me,” the Israeli source reported.

Question: Why, when the priority is to remove the terrorist menace? President Barack Obama used armed drones to kill US citizens abroad, including a 16-year-old boy – raising serious constitutional questions about summary execution. The Council on Foreign Relations reports there were 542 drone strikes authorized by Obama killing an estimated 3,797 people, including 324 civilians, including an American aid worker and his Italian colleague.

The Biden administration used armed drones that killed an Afghan family – including 7 children – during our horrendously mismanaged withdrawal from Kabul.

In 2015, President Obama said, “This is a targeted, focused effort at people who are on a list of active terrorists, who are trying to… harm Americans, hit American facilities, American bases and so on… I think that we have to be judicious… drones have not caused a huge number of civilian casualties. For the most part, they have been very precise, precision strikes.”

Questions: Are 324 civilians not a “large number” and would he think Israel is not at least as judicious as the US?

Israel appears to be doing a better job of avoiding civilian casualties a) in a space that is close to Israeli civilians and b) against an enemy that is thoroughly devoted to hiding behind their own civilians and aiming at Israeli civilians.

That is not a question.

On the other hand, the Russians don’t appear to have the same scruples. (No figures cited here – there are no independent, reliable reports from either side.)

Here is your question: While the administration has commented on the Iranian drones illegally sold to Russia despite a UN arms embargo, it has NOT commented on the fact that those drones have parts manufactured in China in 2023, according to The Wall Street Journal?

This requires another question: How can the Biden administration continue to unfreeze billions of dollars to the mullah regime in Iran, knowing that it is selling the drones being used against our allies/dependents in Ukraine? Are we willing to fund both sides of the war? Ick.

This is separate from and on top of the older question: How can the US allow money to go to a regime that hangs its opponents from cranes – 192 people, including 8 women since the beginning of the year, according to Human Rights Watch. The number according to NGO Iran Human Rights is 354 executions. Whatever the actual number, even the UN – EVEN – called for a halt in the “horrific wave of executions.”

Finally, France.

This is extraordinarily sad, coming as it does, during the American Independence Day holiday. France is our friend, our ally, our partner and, in fact, one of the great fathers of American Independence.

France is literally burning from end to end. Over the weekend, rioters set fire to an apartment building and desecrated the Holocaust Museum in Paris.

Why has the administration nothing to say about threats to French democracy, but when the democratically elected Israeli government put forward a judicial reform bill – a thoroughly domestic matter – the US called it a “threat to Israeli democracy”? Israelis had/have their own way of expressing their opinions to their government – and their way has been peaceful.

Final question: Why is it so hard for the Biden administration to speak clearly and forcefully to China, Russia, and Iran about depredations that should shake us as Americans, while ignoring the ravaging of France, and biting, gnat-like at America’s democratic ally and security partner, Israel?

Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact [email protected].

July 9, 2023 0 comments
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GOP Is Leaning Into Moderate, Experienced Senate Candidates In 2024 To Avoid Another Failed Red Wave, Experts Say

by The Daily Caller July 9, 2023
By The Daily Caller

GOP Is Leaning Into Moderate, Experienced Senate Candidates In 2024 To Avoid Another Failed Red Wave, Experts Say

Arjun Singh on July 9, 2023

  • The National Republican Senatorial Committee is seeking to recruit established candidates over populists for Senate races in 2024, according to comments from GOP strategists and commentators to the Daily Caller News Foundation.
  • Republicans failed to make expected Senate gains in 2022’s midterm elections after novice GOP candidates lost critical races.
  • “[We must be] nominating candidates who can win … Senate seats are too important to throw away,” said Peter Roff, a conservative commentator.

Republicans are looking to recruit moderate and experienced candidates for Senate races in 2024 to avoid a repeat of losses in the 2022 midterms, GOP campaign experts and conservative commentators told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the GOP’s campaign arm responsible for Senate elections, is looking to place moderate nominees with elected experience in competitive races, experts told the DCNF. An emphasis on electability offered by experienced candidates, they said, is essential to winning — unlike novice candidates subscribing to former President Donald Trump’s brand of populism.

In the 2022 midterm elections, Trump’s endorsement helped several populist candidates in Arizona, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Georgia win primary races over moderate candidates. All of them went on to lose their elections, which observers ascribed to their Trump-style views that were unpalatable to general election voters, with a “red wave” failing to materialize.

The concern has led to “electability” as being a top priority for candidates endorsed by the NRSC. A spokesperson for Republican Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, the NRSC’s chairman, told the DCNF that his “number one priority is recruiting candidates who can win a primary and a general election.”

“The good news for him is that the best candidates are likely to win the primary in Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Ohio,” said Mike McKenna, a former Trump administration official who was responsible for relations with Congress.

McKenna’s comment refers to Dave McCormick, a Pennsylvania Senate candidate in 2022 who is being courted to run for the Senate against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey in 2024. McCormick, who was touted by Daines as a candidate at the NRSC’s recent winter meeting per NBC, has previously lamented populism as leading to “political extremes” and has been called a “liberal” by Trump.

“He’s not MAGA, he’s not MAGA … I do know that he was with a company that managed money for communist China, and he is absolutely the candidate of special interests and globalists and the Washington establishment,” said Trump of McCormick at a rally for Oz in 2022.

In West Virginia, incumbent Republican Gov. Jim Justice is running to challenge Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin and leads the GOP primary field by 41 points. Though an ally of Trump, Justice is a two-term governor with high name recognition, making him an established candidate with a record of winning elections.

Upon Justice’s announcement, Daines released a statement calling him a “proven winner.” By contrast, the Club for Growth — a limited-government advocacy group — has opposed Justice, with its president saying “He would be in … the moderate camp. So we wouldn’t support him in the primary.”

In Ohio, Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose leads the current field in straw polling, which also includes Republican state Sen. Matt Dolan, Senate candidate in 2022, and Bernie Moreno, a businessman whom Republican Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio has endorsed.

A recent poll by Causeway Solutions showed LaRose as leading the field with 24%. A person familiar with LaRose’s thinking told the DCNF that he has “strong conservative credentials and a large grassroots network across Ohio’s 88 counties.” Asked about Trump’s endorsement, the person said that LaRose did not commit to seeking it out in 2024, saying “[Endorsements] are not what this race hangs on … You don’t have to hang your hat on what one person thinks about you.”

Recent announcements that Republican Rep. Warren Davidson of Ohio and State Sen. Doug Mastriano of Pennsylvania will not run for the Senate have helped clear the field for established candidates. GOP insiders had feared that they, both populists, were unelectable in general elections, per Politico.

“There are always people eager to stick it to the man to make a point. But elections aren’t about making a point; they’re about winning,” said Peter Roff, a conservative commentator, to the DCNF. “That means nominating candidates who can win … Senate seats are too important to throw away.”

Other states where incumbent Democrats will be running are Wisconsin, Montana and Arizona, with the NRSC courting candidates to unseat them. Those efforts were dealt a blow on Jun. 9 when Republican Rep. Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin announced that he would not run for the Senate.

“It’s obviously disappointing, but it would have been political malpractice not to try to recruit Mike Gallagher. We will have a strong candidate in Wisconsin,” an NRSC spokesman told Roll Call.

In other states, Democratic Sen. John Tester of Montana and Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona will be running for re-election. In Montana, Bridger Aerospace CEO Tim Sheehy announced his candidacy on Tuesday, with Daines saying he “could not be happier” that Sheehy was running, while Arizona Senate President pro tempore T.J. Shope has also publicly expressed interest in running.

However, unlike Gallagher, who was publicly and privately courted by the NRSC, no such efforts have yet been made by the committee to recruit candidates in Arizona. “No telling how … AZ [is] going to turn out. Nor is there any telling what the NRSC is going to do,” said McKenna, with primary elections for these races slated to happen in the summer of 2024.

Not everyone in the party, however, believes that rejecting insurgent candidates is the right strategy.

“[In 2022], candidates supported by Trump and the establishment both lost. It’s never a straight line. People often create narratives to explain things,” said a Republican strategist advising Moreno’s campaign to the DCNF, who requested to speak on background. “Ohio is one of the most populist conservative states in the country. Being associated with Trump is good and there’s no evidence to show that it’s a negative,” he added.

“The reality is that insurgents like J.D. Vance, who got to the Senate without establishment help, will always have to look outside the Beltway for support,” said Christian Whiton, a former Trump administration official. However, he admitted that anti-establishment candidates were detrimental to Republicans in 2022, noting “Trump’s support for oddball candidates in 2022 who lost in Pennsylvania and Georgia and left Democrats in control of the Senate.”

All content created by the Daily Caller News Foundation, an independent and nonpartisan newswire service, is available without charge to any legitimate news publisher that can provide a large audience. All republished articles must include our logo, our reporter’s byline and their DCNF affiliation. For any questions about our guidelines or partnering with us, please contact [email protected].

July 9, 2023 0 comments
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TPG to buy Forcepoint unit from Francisco Partners for $2.45 billion – WSJ

by Reuters July 9, 2023
By Reuters

(Reuters) – Buyout house TPG is buying a business unit of software provider Forcepoint for $2.45 billion from Francisco Partners, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday citing people familiar with the matter.

TPG is acquiring Forcepoint’s government cybersecurity business, known as Forcepoint Global Governments and Critical Infrastructure, according to the report. The unit focuses on critical infrastructure for U.S. government and federal agencies.

Francisco which bought Forcepoint from Raytheon Technologies in October 2020 will retain a minority stake in the unit, WSJ said, adding that it will continue to own and manage its commercial cybersecurity business as a separate entity.

TPG and Francisco Partners declined to comment while Forcepoint did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Austin, Texas-based Forcepoint develops and creates computer security software, data protection, and firewall solutions. Its business that caters to the U.S. government currently generates about $400 million of annual revenue.

Forcepoint is exploring sale of its governments security unit for more than $2 billion as part of its strategy to focus on growing its commercial business, sources told Reuters in April.

(Reporting by Akanksha Khushi in Bengaluru; Editing by Jacqueline Wong and Diane Craft)

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Canadian port strike talks resume, supported by federal mediators

by Reuters July 9, 2023
By Reuters

TORONTO (Reuters) – Talks in Pacific Canada between striking dock workers and their employers have resumed after four days away from the negotiation table, a statement on Saturday by the British Columbia Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) showed.

The BCMEA and the International Longshore and Warehouse Union Canada (ILWU Canada) met on Saturday, supported by federal mediators, the statement said. The talks had stalled on Tuesday and the two sides broke off negotiations.

Some 7,500 port workers went on strike on July 1 for higher wages, upending operations at the Port of Vancouver and Port of Prince Rupert – key gateways for exporting the country’s natural resources and commodities as well as for bringing in raw materials.

Canada’s federal and provincial governments had urged the parties to restart talks, while on Saturday Alberta Premier Danielle Smith in a statement said her province supports an immediate recall of parliament to consider legislation to resolve the work stoppage.

BCMEA said it tabled a revised proposal to resolve skilled trades shortages and address ILWU Canada’s demand to expand their jurisdiction over regular maintenance work on terminals, which was rejected by ILWU Canada.

ILWU Canada did not immediately reply to a request for comment. The union is due to hold a rally on Sunday in Vancouver.

The Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters (CM&E) industry body said the strike is disrupting C$500 million ($377 million) in trade every day. That could lead to supply-chain disruptions that fuel inflation, economists say.

($1 = 1.3271 Canadian dollars)

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Mark Porter)

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