By Howard Schneider

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Is the U.S. economy stuck with such high inflation that it will take a recession to fix it. Or are prices about to crater and leave the Federal Reserve with a load of financial stress, slowed growth, and higher-than-needed interest rates to answer for?

From the lingering impact of the COVID-19 pandemic to the prospect of a tactical nuclear weapon being used in Europe or a new energy shock, a prolonged surge of rising prices is not hard to imagine.

Data scheduled to be released on Friday will likely show the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation continued to run at roughly three times the U.S. central bank’s annual target of 2% last month. Economists polled by Reuters expect the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, when stripped of volatile food and energy costs, to have climbed 5.2% on a year-over-year basis in September. The all-inclusive figure that forms the basis for the Fed’s target is likely to come in around 6%.

But even the most hawkish Fed officials feel that absent some outside event to reignite a surge in price pressures, inflation will fall in coming months as the impact of rate increases trims demand, competition in the marketplace intensifies, and supply chain pressures ease. Even the passage of time, putting distance between the current data and last year’s rapid price run-up for things like used cars, will help the headline numbers.

Graphic: Rates up, inflation sideways https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/gkvlgnaywpb/chart.png

On a headline basis, the Fed’s fast pace of rate increases has done little yet to bend inflation from its highest level since the early 1980s.

The central bank has lifted its target federal funds rate by 3 percentage points from the near-zero level in March, including three straight three-quarters-of-a-percentage-point hikes. It is widely expected to deliver another increase of that size at the end of its Nov. 1-2 policy meeting.

But Fed officials’ bias may be shifting from further “front-loading” of rate hikes aimed at catching up with rising inflation to a slower pace of increases and an eventual pause to let the economy catch its breath.

While the operating slogan among policymakers is to “hope for the best but plan for the worst,” Fed officials and outside economists have begun pointing to a number of economic forces that may play into the central bank’s hands.

SUPPLY, DEMAND, COMPETITION

There has been sharp rhetoric about high corporate profits driving inflation – and indeed businesses like auto dealers enjoyed large markups during the pandemic, when demand surged and supply was limited.

But not all jumps in margins are the same. Some grocery store executives, for example, have noted that a shift to store brands has allowed consumers to save money while also helping companies’ bottom lines.

This is an area the Fed is watching, and where it expects to get some help.

Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard has been the most prominent official to note the high margins seen during the pandemic in some parts of the economy, and the likelihood of a decline; St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has argued that as demand wanes, businesses will cut prices to keep market share.

Graphic: Car dealer margins https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/znpneylxlvl/chart.png

In Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s debut policy speech, she noted how evidence that inflation is slowing can take time to be reflected in the government’s main inflation reports.

The cost of shelter, a major component in overall inflation measures, is a prime culprit. Data on rent, for example, is collected for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) through a rolling survey. As data on new leases is compiled, it becomes part of an average, so it takes time for the impact of slowing or even falling rents to be felt against the larger, prior increases.

Fed and other researchers have been looking for ways to capture what is happening in real time, and found that data on rental listings, such as the Zillow Observed Rent Index, are a leading indicator of future trends for CPI’s shelter component.

Based on those and other metrics, shelter inflation already may be declining even if government data doesn’t show it yet.

Graphic: Rent inflation slows https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/zjpqjqezkvx/chart.png

DOLLAR, JOBS, WAGES

The U.S. dollar’s roughly 18% year-on-year surge across a broad basket of currencies means imported goods cost less for Americans.

Combined with easing oil and other commodity prices, along with the detangling of supply chains and a drop in shipping costs, import prices may become a powerful drag on U.S. inflation.

In a recent analysis that predicted a coming “inflation downshift,” economists at JP Morgan said import prices “not only are poised to slow significantly but could be contracting at a -2.5% pace by the end of this year.”

Other elements the investment bank said could help on the inflation front include the large recent jumps in things like airline prices that are not expected to be repeated – and will eventually pass out of the headline number.

Graphic: Import price index https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/INFLATION/gdvzqrwzbpw/chart.png

Among the data points mentioned by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the number of job vacancies in relation to the number of people looking for work is one he feels is indicative of the inflation battle.

With job markets out of whack, companies have bid up wages to compete for workers. While that may not be the source of inflation, Fed officials feel that more balance between labor demand and supply will help ease price increases. Service providers are more labor-dependent, and those businesses are where prices recently have been rising the fastest.

Six months ago, there were about two open jobs per available worker, data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed, a number so out of line with prior years that Fed officials regarded it as evidence of misalignment. It was down to a 1.67-to-1 ratio as of September, but remained well above the 1.2-to-1 figure prior to the pandemic when the U.S. unemployment rate was comparable to the current 3.5%.

Graphic: Unemployed to job openings More jobs than jobseekers https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-FED/JOBS/egvbkmeoepq/chart.png

Still, Goldman Sachs economist Joseph Briggs said in a recent analysis that the seeds of a “soft landing,” in which the Fed tames inflation without triggering a recession, may be taking root: For some key industries, labor imbalances are improving mostly because of a decline in vacancies, rather than through lost jobs, and those are also the businesses where wages are rising more slowly.

“This pattern supports our view that wage growth and price inflation will moderate without a recession,” Briggs wrote.

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul Simao)

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ZURICH (Reuters) – Credit Suisse is exploring the possibility of an initial public offering for its CS First Boston spinoff, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday.

The Swiss bank is starting out as the majority shareholder for the newly created investment bank entity, but sees an IPO as a future option, the source said.

An unnamed investment company has already committed to inject $500 million into CS First Boston, focused on advisory and capital markets, Chief Executive Ulrich Koerner said.

Saudi National Bank, which is taking a stake of up to 9.9% in Credit Suisse Group, has also said it was ready to put money into the investment bank spinoff.

Credit Suisse board member Michael Klein will step down and become chief executive of the new CS First Boston entity, which will be headquartered in New York.

(Reporting by Noele Illien and Oliver Hirt; Editing by Michael Shields)

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TOKYO (Reuters) -Toyota Motor Corp’s truck and bus unit Hino Motors on Thursday forecast a 6 billion yen operating profit for the fiscal year ending in March 2023, confounding analysts’ forecasts for a loss due to an engine data scandal.

However, it did not disclose operating income and net profit forecasts for the year, as it was unable to “reasonably” calculate losses attributed to the engine data scandal.

The truck maker became mired in a reputation-tarnishing emissions data scandal this year affecting 640,000 vehicles after admitting to falsifying data on some engines dating back to 2003.

And it had been expected to suffer an operating loss of 16.2 billion yen for the current business year, based on the mean forecast from a Refinitiv survey of 10 analysts.

Nevertheless, the operating profit forecast by the company was still 82% down on the previous financial year.

Hino said its forecast for a profit was based on predictions for a 22% increase in overseas sales over year ago levels, and a 36% drop in domestic sales.

It said that since September it has resumed delivering some medium-size and small-size trucks to the home market, after suspending shipments of some models in August due to the scandal.

For the July-September quarter, Hino posted a quarterly operating profit of 12.3 billion yen ($84.66 million), 21% less than a year earlier, but easily beating the mean forecast for a 1.66 billion yen profit given by a Refinitiv survey of seven analysts.

Although the domestic sales dropped by 33% for the first six months of the business year starting April, Hino’s sales to Indonesia, Thailand and the United States jumped during the period as a result of strong demand and the resumption of production in the United States, which had been suspended between December 2020 and October 2021.

The Japanese truckmaker is facing a class-action lawsuit in the United States, in which it and its parent Toyota have been accused of historical misconduct. Hino and its subsidiary in Australia are facing another lawsuit from customers who purchased, leased or acquired its trucks.

Hino president Satoshi Ogiso declined to comment on what impact possible damages from the lawsuits could have on business performance.

“We are still in the process of carefully considering and proceeding with the response,” Ogiso said.

Asked whether financial support would be required from Toyota, Hino finance official Toru Matsukawa said financing was not a problem for the company.

Hino became a Toyota subsidiary in 2001 and nearly all Hino presidents since have been Toyota employees.

The scandal has led to resignations of three executives and one senior official earlier this month.

Ogiso, who long worked for Toyota before becoming Hino’s president in 2021, kept his position but was disciplined, and made to forego half of his compensation for six months.

Hino has said that an inward-looking corporate culture and a management failure to engage sufficiently with workers had created an environment in which greater priority was put on achieving schedules and numerical targets than on following processes.

($1 = 145.2900 yen)

(Reporting by Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman & Simon Cameron-Moore)

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By Greg Torode

HONG KONG (Reuters) – Chinese President Xi Jinping’s new generals may have been selected for their political loyalty to him, but those ties could serve at least one vital military purpose in any Taiwan invasion plan: ensuring cohesion and decisiveness.

Although the Politburo’s seven-man Standing Committee would make the ultimate decision on any Taiwan action, the Central Military Commission would forge and execute the battle plan, eight Asian and Western military attaches say.

Three new generals were appointed to the top command body on Sunday after the Communist Party’s five-yearly congress – an event at which Xi said China would “never promise to give up the use of force” to take control of the self-ruled island.

Four security analysts and four military attaches say Russia’s Ukrainian quagmire has shown how vital speed – both in build-up and execution – would be to any Chinese plan, in part to prevent Taiwanese forces and international support from mobilising.

“If Xi Jinping is going to the pull the trigger on Taiwan, then he can’t afford any dissent from the Central Military Commission,” said Singapore-based strategic adviser Alexander Neill.

“To secure any kind of advantage they would have to move fast, lightning fast,” Neill added. “There is no room for dithering. That has always been Chinese thinking on Taiwan, and the Ukraine stalemate has confirmed the need to avoid getting bogged down in a slow logistical build up.”

In his first two terms, Xi purged thousands of officers on corruption allegations and has attempted to tighten the party’s control over the military.

Xi further strengthened his grip on his military command, with three new generals appointed to the seven-person commission and an extension beyond retirement age granted to his closest military confidante, General Zhang Youxia.

“This breaking of precedent is being used to his advantage to achieve two aims at once,” said James Char, a military scholar at Sinagpore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, referring to keeping Zhang in his post past retirement. “To ensure the PLA’s top soldier is someone well-versed in operational command and is politically reliable.”

The Chinese Defence Ministry did not respond to questions from Reuters.

Some analysts and attaches described the commission as a tightly interconnected group that blends operational experience and political loyalty while maintaining a link to China’s last shooting war, against Vietnam.

Zhang, 72, is described in the Pentagon’s 2021 report on China’s military modernisation as a People’s Liberation Army “princeling” whose father served with Xi’s father at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949.

One of Zhang’s proteges, General Li Shangfu, was also promoted to the commission. Crucially, Li has experience with the People’s Liberation Army’s digitised strategic support forces, a body that covers electronic, cyber and space warfare.

General He Weidong will serve as the second vice-chairman below Zhang. He was promoted to the position after his command of the reformed Eastern Theatre Command, which is responsible for Taiwan operations.

He oversaw the unprecedented military drills and missile tests surrounding Taiwan in August that Beijing unleashed to protest the visit to Taipei by U.S. House of Representatives leader Nancy Pelosi.

General He is widely known to be connected to Xi through his service in the former 31st Group Army in Fujian during Xi’s time in that province, which faces Taiwan.

It is a background He shares with leading political commissar Admiral Miao Hua, who remains on the commission.

The new line-up straddles a military generation, given the promotion of General Liu Zhenli, who has been in command of forces around Beijing and has experience in the People’s Armed Police, China’s internal security forces.

Liu, 58, along with Zhang, has combat experience dating to the ill-fated conflict with Vietnam, which rumbled on to the late 1980s.

“That link to the problematic Vietnam campaign is a reminder that for all of the PLA’s advances in recent years, there is a glaring lack of modern combat experience,” said one Asian military attache, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“All the drills, exercises and parades can’t replace that. As cohesive as this team might be, there are glaring questions about the PLA’s ability to wage war – for them, and for those of us on the outside looking in,” added the attache, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

Which member of the commission will serve as Defence Minister, replacing the retiring Wei Fenghe, will emerge when the National People’s Congress confirms a new governing team in March.

The position, which includes an extensive military-diplomatic role, is seen as less crucial than the work of the commission itself, which operates amid strict secrecy out of an imposing command centre in western Beijing.

(Reporting By Greg Torode. Editing by Gerry Doyle)

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By Juliette Portala

(Reuters) -French retailer Casino said on Thursday it had launched a study for the potential disposal of part of its stake in Brazilian cash-and-carry chain Assai as it looks to reduce its debt.

The company, which has been facing concerns over high debts and low cash flows and hopes to complete a 4.5-billion-euro ($4.52 billion) disposal plan by the end of 2023, said a sale would raise about $500 million, depending on market conditions.

The move offers reassurance on Casino’s ability to respect its covenants in the first quarter next year, leading to the closing of short positions, Clement Genelot, an analyst at Bryan Garnier, said.

“I’m not saying that all the problems of the group are resolved (…) but at least, we have saved some time,” he told Reuters in a call.

“Casino saves the first ball game,” analysts at JPMorgan wrote in a note, adding that the company had delivered on “the most controversial areas” of covenants and liquidity.

As part of its efforts to cut debt, Casino last week sealed the sale of its renewable energy business GreenYellow to Ardian, generating proceeds of 600 million euros.

Casino shares rose as much as 30.5% in early trading, topping France’s large- and mid-cap index SBF 120.

The company is banking on an expansion of convenience stores located in city centres and its focus on e-commerce, notably home delivery through partnerships with Ocado or Amazon.

“If we take an average since the beginning of the year, we have opened a Franprix every two days and a Casino convenience store every day,” Chief Financial Officer David Lubek told reporters.

The firm’s third-quarter total consolidated net sales rose 5.4% to 8.55 billion euros on a same-store basis from a year earlier, supported by growth in domestic and Latin American markets against an inflationary backdrop.

Carrefour, Europe’s largest food retailer, on Wednesday raised its cash-flow target for this year as sales growth accelerated in the third quarter.

($1 = 0.9951 euros)

(Reporting by Juliette Portala; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Mike Harrison)

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By Mathieu Rosemain

PARIS (Reuters) – Investors brushed off upbeat comments by STMicroelectronics’ boss on Thursday after the Franco-Italian chipmaker pointed to a slower pace of growth at year end, as falling demand for electronic products adds to fears of a global recession.

Shares of the Geneva-based company, whose biggest clients include iPhone maker Apple and carmaker Tesla, were diving by close to 8% at 0907 GMT, making the stock the worst performer of France’s blue-chip index CAC 40.

“Results are good but the outlook is disappointing,” a Milan-based trader said, noting general caution about the sector’s outlook.

Headwinds are building for the semiconductor industry, with rising Taiwan-China and U.S.-China tensions and red-hot inflation that could squeeze spending on cars, smartphones and other consumer products.

In a call with analysts, STMicro’s boss said twice that the company had high visibility on the group’s orders for the next six to eight quarters, with its manufacturing plants running at full capacity.

“This makes us very confident to drive the company on a trajectory of growth in 2023,” Jean-Marc Chery said, confirming the group’s target of $20 billion in yearly sales by 2027 at the latest.

Bigger rival Texas Instruments Inc said this week it expected demand across most of its end markets to decline, while South Korea’s SK Hynix Inc warned of an “unprecedented deterioration” in memory chip demand.

STMicro said earlier it expected fourth-quarter sales to edge up by 1.8% from the previous quarter to about $4.4 billion. That contrasts with a jump of 12.6% in the three months that ended on Sept. 30.

Co-controlled by the Italian and French governments, STMicro said demand rose across all its products in the third quarter, beating market expectations, with total net revenue reaching 4.32 billion.

Gross margin stood at 47.6% in the third quarter, also above analysts’ average predictions.

STMicro said it now expected full-year net revenue of $16.1 billion, up 26% on the year, as well as a gross margin of about 47.3%, in line with previous guidance.

(Reporting by Mathieu Rosemain; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore, Clarence Fernandez and Tomasz Janowski)

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By Katie Paul and Chavi Mehta

(Reuters) – Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc on Wednesday forecast a weak holiday quarter and significantly more costs next year, sending shares down nearly 20% as investors voiced skepticism about the company’s pricey metaverse bets.

The forecast knocked about $67 billion off Meta’s stock market value in extended trade, adding to the more than half a trillion dollars in value already lost this year.

If Meta’s after-hours stock rout is matched in Thursday’s trading session, it will have been its deepest one-day loss since Feb. 2, when the company last issued a dismal forecast.

The disappointing outlook comes as Meta is contending with slowing global economic growth, competition from TikTok, privacy changes from Apple, concerns about massive spending on the metaverse and the ever-present threat of regulation.

Executives announced plans to consolidate offices and said Meta would keep headcount flat through the end of 2023.

Revenue fell 4% in the third quarter ended Sept. 30. That deepened a revenue decline begun the previous quarter, when the company posted a first-ever revenue drop of 0.9%, although it was less steep than the 5.6% decline Wall Street had expected, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.

GRAPHIC: Meta’s revenue fell for a second straight quarter https://graphics.reuters.com/METAPLATFORMS-RESULTS/dwvkrbbwbpm/chart.png

More troubling was the company’s estimate that fourth-quarter revenue would be in the range of $30 billion to $32.5 billion, mostly under analysts’ estimates of $32.2 billion, according to the Refinitiv data.

Meta also forecast that its full-year 2023 total expenses would be $96 billion to $101 billion, significantly higher than a revised estimate for 2022 total expenses of $85 billion to $87 billion.

That includes an estimated $2.9 billion in charges over the course of both 2022 and 2023 from the office downsizing.

It also forecast that operating losses associated with the Reality Labs unit responsible for its metaverse investments would grow in 2023 and pledged to “pace” investments after that.

Total costs for the third quarter came in above estimates at $22.1 billion, compared with $18.6 billion the year prior.

‘EXPERIMENTAL BETS’

Meta is carrying out several overhauls of its apps and ads products to keep its core business pumping out profits, while also investing $10 billion a year in a bet on metaverse hardware and software.

Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg has said he expects the metaverse investments to take about a decade to bear fruit. In the meantime, he has had to freeze hiring, shutter projects and reorganize teams to trim costs.

An analyst on the investor call told Zuckerberg investors were worried that the company had taken on “just too many experimental bets” and asked the chief executive why he believed his gambles would pay off.

Meta executives defended the spending, saying most of the company’s expenses were still going toward the core business, including investments in more expensive AI-related servers, infrastructure and data centers.

Zuckerberg added that he expected the metaverse work to provide returns over time.

“I appreciate the patience,” he said. “And I think that those who are patient and invest with us will end up being rewarded.”

Zuckerberg said plays of Meta’s TikTok-like short-video product Reels now number more than 140 billion across Facebook and Instagram each day, up 50% from six months ago, and its revenue run rates are now $3 billion annually.

He believes Reels is gaining against rival TikTok, he added, with Reels being reshared more than 1 billion times a day.

Meta also posted user growth figures roughly in line with expectations, including a year-over-year increase of monthly active users on flagship app Facebook.

“The worry for Meta is that this pain is likely to continue into 2023 as cost headwinds remain a real challenge and the strong dollar impacts on overseas earnings,” said Ben Barringer, equity research analyst at Quilter Cheviot.

“Given revenues were down at a time when costs have grown significantly, modest user growth and impressions simply isn’t going to bail you out.”

Net income in the third quarter fell to $4.40 billion, or $1.64 per share, from $9.19 billion, or $3.22 per share, a year earlier, its worst showing since 2019 and the fourth straight quarter of profit decline.

Analysts had expected a profit of $1.86 per share.

(Reporting by Katie Paul in Palo Alto, Calif. and Chavi Mehta in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Sheila Dang in Dallas; Editing by Anil D’Silva, Peter Henderson and Lisa Shumaker)

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VILNIUS (Reuters) – Russian media figure Ksenia Sobchak is in Lithuania after entering the country on her Israeli passport, the head of Lithuania’s counter-intelligence service said on Thursday, a day after Russian police searched one of her houses.

Sobchak is famous inside Russia where she has taken on various journalistic, celebrity and political roles over the years and has long-standing family connections to President Vladimir Putin.

The property belonging to Sobchak, 40, was searched on Wednesday by Russian police as part of a criminal case against her commercial director, the state-owned news agency TASS reported, citing law enforcement agencies, who said Sobchak herself was not a suspect.

Sobchak suggested on her Telegram channel that the case that triggered the search was politically-motivated however, and linked to a documentary she had made on the use of torture in Russian prisons.

TASS earlier this month reported that Sobchak herself faced a criminal investigation over a story she had done that police suspect was “fake”, though suggested the subject of the offending material was the “state funding of festivals.”

She is the daughter of the late Anatoly Sobchak, St Petersburg’s mayor in the 1990s, who was Putin’s boss and friend. The two families had close ties, sometimes holidaying together.

Her long-standing family connection to Putin has been a source of suspicion among parts of the anti-Kremlin opposition movement, much of which is now outside Russia, despite her own involvement with it at times.

TASS had reported, citing law enforcement sources, that Sobchak had left Russia on the night between Tuesday and Wednesday, crossing the Belarus-Lithuania border, after tricking the Russian authorities by purchasing – but not using – plane tickets from Moscow to Turkey and Dubai.

“Without any doubt, she is (in Lithuania)… I confirm the fact”, Darius Jauniskis, who heads the Baltic country’s counter-intelligence service, told the Ziniu radio station on Thursday morning.

“As an Israeli citizen, with a valid passport, she doesn’t need a visa and can enter Lithuania and stay here for up to 90 days”, he added.

Israel’s daily Haaretz newspaper reported in April that Sobchak acquired Israeli citizenship after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Sobchak’s Telegram channel, which frequently carries reports critical of government policy, has 1.4 million followers.

She ran for the Russian presidency in 2018, winning less than 2% of the vote, in what her critics derided as a publicity stunt that helped the Kremlin create the impression inside Russia that the election, won by Putin, was competitive.

Sobchak said she had genuinely wanted to win the contest and was interested in politics and bringing about change.

(Reporting by Andrius Sytas in Vilnius; Editing by Andrew Osborn and William Maclean)

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MANILA (Reuters) – Billionaire Elon Musk’s Space Exploration Technologies Corp (SpaceX) is expanding into the Philippines by offering satellite broadband service to businesses and the government, his local partner said on Thursday.

Data Lake Inc, a Philippine-based firm partly owned by tycoon Henry Sy Jr, said it signed a deal to be the first partner of SpaceX’s Starlink in Southeast Asia.

“The Philippines is an archipelago, and connecting our country to the wider world often requires extensive infrastructure,” Data Lake Chairman Anthony Almeda said in a statement.

The Philippines is made up of more than 7,600 islands, many of them isolated and with mountainous terrain, making broadband coverage difficult for companies. Around 20 tropical storms also typically hit the country every year, often damaging infrastructure and cutting communication links between islands and provinces.

SpaceX’s Starlink uses a network of thousands of satellites to provide internet access to far-flung regions or when communications are disrupted during natural disasters.

In the Philippines, only seven out of every 100 people have fixed broadband subscriptions, lagging behind regional peers like Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, data from the World Bank show.

Earlier this month, the Philipppines’ information and communications technology ministry said the entry of Starlink in the Philippine market was scheduled for 2023.

(Reporting by Neil Jerome Morales; Editing by Ed Davies)

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By Chen Lin

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Southeast Asia’s internet economy is expected to be worth $330 billion by 2025, though this a downgrade from a previous forecast due to economic uncertainty and more pressure on tech companies to make a profit, an industry report said on Thursday.

The annual report, by Alphabet’s Google, Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings and global business consultants Bain & Company, trimmed its forecast for 2025 from $363 billion in last year’s report.

“Amidst global macroeconomic headwinds, reduced disposable income, sky-rocketing prices, and lower product availability, there is tapering of demand from Southeast Asia consumers,” the trio said in a joint release.

The region of 11 countries is one of the world’s fastest growing internet markets, due to a young population, widespread smartphone usage and urbanisation, and a growing middle class.

The report, which covers Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines, is still upbeat on this year and sees the internet economy growing 20% to $200 billion, three years earlier than anticipated in an inaugural report in 2016.

All six countries are expected to post double-digit growth between now and 2025, with Vietnam having the fastest growing digital economy this year at 28%.

Indonesia, the region’s most populous nation, saw its digital economy grow 22% to $77 billion this year, contributing to about 40% of Southeast Asia’s total online spending.

On the tech investment front, while early-stage deals are continuing with strong momentum, late-stage deals are seeing “more pronounced dips” and a pause in plans to go public.

Global investors are getting increasingly cautious amid rising interest rates and plummeting stock valuations, the report said, with initial public offering prospects set to grind to a near halt for the next 12 to 18 months.

The digital financial services sector is expected to overtake e-commerce to become the region’s top investment sector, with payments taking up the majority share of the deals.

In the first half of 2022, the sector saw a record funding of around $4 billion.

Meanwhile, Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines are likely to attract more investors in the longer-term, the report said.

“Universally investors generally expect deal activity to recover from 2024 onwards,” said Fock Wai Hoong, Deputy Head of Technology & Consumer and Southeast Asia at Temasek.

Venture capitalists had $15 billion on hand to sustain deals at year-end 2021, the report said.

(Reporting by Chen Lin in Singapore; Editing by Ed Davies)

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By Jane Lanhee Lee

OAKLAND, Calif. (Reuters) – Funds from the recently passed $52 billion Chips and Science Act should be used to upgrade existing U.S. research and development infrastructure as well as building new facilities, a chips industry body said on Thursday.

The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) on Thursday called for a careful examination of existing R&D infrastructure, including facilities such as the Albany NanoTech Complex in New York and other government and research spaces.

In addition to tens of billions of dollars for building back U.S. chip manufacturing capacity, the Chips and Science act carved out $2 billion for the Defense Department and $11 billion for the Commerce Department to allocate for chip R&D.

“In the semiconductor industry, that kind of money, especially when we’re talking about efforts towards scale up, will be spent very, very quickly. So it’s really important that an understanding of where the existing infrastructure is provided, so that it can be leveraged,” said Eric Breckenfeld, director of technology policy at SIA, which released a report with Boston Consulting Group suggesting how the funding could be spent.

Breckenfeld said the Defense Department funding would mainly go to existing programs, while the Commerce Department funding will be allocated through two new government entities – the National Semiconductor Technology Center (NSTC) and the National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program (NAPMP).

The goal of the Chips Act R&D funding would be to fill a gap in the so-called “valley of death” between early stage research and mature commercial technologies, which are both well funded in the U.S., he said.

While the Commerce Department hasn’t given a detailed road map of how the NSTC and NAPMP would be governed, Breckenfeld said there will likely be several technology hubs in different regions specializing in different parts of semiconductor technologies, such as materials or packaging.

Regional competition was emerging to secure those hubs, he added.

(Reporting By Jane Lanhee Lee; editing by Richard Pullin)

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PARIS (Reuters) -French nuclear power group EDF is expecting a hit of around 32 billion euro ($32.18 billion) to its full-year core earnings from lower nuclear production, a bigger loss than previously forecast and its sixth profit warning this year.

The French government, which already owns 84% of EDF, is in the process of fully re-nationalising the company, the debt-laden operator of Europe’s largest fleet of nuclear power plants.

The company has been hobbled by technical problems, which have cut its nuclear output to a 30-year low this year, and by government rules forcing it to sell discounted power.

Here is a snapshot of its history:

* 1946: EDF is created from the nationalisation of dozens of power companies, as part of efforts to rebuild France’s badly dented post-war economy. It has a monopoly.

* 1963: France’s first nuclear plant is operational.

* 1973: France decides to invest massively in the nuclear sector in response to the global oil shock.

* 2005: France raises more than 6 billion euros when it partly privatises EDF at 32 euros per share, making it one of Europe’s largest energy companies by market capitalisation. It remains 84% state-owned.

* 2007: Shares peak at more than twice their listing price.

* 2020-2021: “Project Hercules” plan for the overhaul of EDF is launched to tackle a series of problems, including rising debt and troubles at ageing reactors, but it gets bogged down in talks with unions and the European Commission.

* December 2021: EDF takes four reactors offline due to corrosion concerns. The number of reactors switched off increases over the following months.

* January 2022: Government tells EDF to sell more of its cheap nuclear power to smaller competitors to limit the increase of electricity prices in France.

* May 2022: EDF issues profit warning over reactor outages, as 12 of its 56 French reactors were offline and being inspected for stress corrosion.

* July 2022: About half of EDF’s French nuclear reactors are now offline. Shares trade around 8-9 euros. The government says it will bring the company back under full state ownership and kicks off search for new CEO.

* July 19, 2022: The French government offers to pay 9.7 billion euros ($9.85 billion), or 12 euros per share, to take full control of the group. The buyout offer is expected to be completed by the end of 2022.

* Sept 2022: The group says it is expecting a hit of around 29 billion euros to its full-year core earnings from lower nuclear production, a bigger loss than previously forecast. President Emmanuel Macron proposes Luc Remont, a top executive at Schneider Electric, as the new chairman and CEO of EDF.

($1 = 0.9872 euros)

(Writing by Ingrid Melander and Silvia AloisiEditing by Jane Merriman)

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BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s economy is facing growing risks of slowing external demand in the fourth quarter, a commerce ministry spokesperson said on Thursday, adding that uncertainties were overshadowing growth in China’s foreign trade.

As the world economy loses momentum, the environment for trade was getting increasingly complex for China, commerce ministry spokesperson Shu Jueting told a regular news conference.

“Looking into the fourth quarter, the risk of slowing external demand is expected to increase,” she said.

China’s exports grew 5.7% from a year earlier in September, the slowest pace since April. Imports rose a feeble 0.3%, undershooting estimates for 1.0% growth.

It comes as monetary tightening across the world to contain red-hot inflation is curbing global economic growth.

Despite the challenges, conditions were still favourable for a stable growth in trade between China and other countries, Shu added.

Beijing’s stringent zero-COVID strategy has also squeezed sectors that are particularly sensitive to pandemic restrictions such as services.

“The consumption market continues a recovery and growth trend, but due to unexpected factors including the COVID outbreaks, market entities in sectors of brick and mortar retail, catering and accommodation still face huge pressure,” Shu said.

She expected consumption to rebound as policy support takes effect.

China’s retail sales, an indicator of consumption, grew 2.5% last month, missing forecasts for a 3.3% increase and easing from August’s 5.4% pace, underlining still fragile domestic demand.

Even if the economy rebounds at a faster-than-anticipated clip in the third quarter, a long-term recovery will be challenged by persistent COVID-19 curbs, a prolonged property slump and global recession risks, economists say.

A Reuters poll forecast China’s growth to slow to 3.2% in 2022, far below the official target of around 5.5%, marking one of the worst performances in almost half a century.

(Reporting by Ellen Zhang, Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo; editing by John Stonestreet and Ana Nicolaci da Costa)

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By Ron Bousso and Shadia Nasralla

LONDON/PARIS (Reuters) – Europe’s two largest energy companies Shell and TotalEnergies reported profits of more than $9 billion in the third quarter, though Shell’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) division struggled to capture the benefits of high fuel prices.

The strong earnings were likely to intensify calls in Britain and the European Union for further windfall taxes on energy companies to help households cope with gas and power bills.

LNG prices have soared this year as Moscow progressively cut piped natural gas supplies to Europe, which heavily depended on Russian imports.

Western sanctions on Russia, which is among the world’s leading oil and gas producers, in response to its invasion of Ukraine in February, helped to drive European gas prices to an all-time high in August.

They have fallen heavily in recent weeks as Europe has filled gas storage and temperatures have been unusually mild, but prices are still higher than a year ago.

The world’s biggest LNG trader Shell missed some of the benefit of the price rise after a fall in production following strikes at Australia’s Prelude site. It also said its trading was hit by “substantial differences between paper and physical realisations in a volatile and dislocated market”.

Its headline profit in its integrated gas unit was down almost 40% on the previous quarter.

Overall profit of $9.5 billion was slightly below last quarter’s record. Shell still decided to increase its dividend by 15% as it prepares for Wael Sawan to take the helm from Ben van Beurden next year.

TotalEnergies LNG, renewables and power division reported a record income of $3.6 billion in the quarter, up $1.1 billion from the second quarter and more than twice last year’s, driven by a 50% rise in LNG prices and a “strong” performance of its LNG trading division.

This came even as its LNG sales volumes fell 10% on the quarter due to outages at the large U.S. Freeport plant and elsewhere. Overall, TotalEnergies made a record quarterly profit of nearly $10 billion.

TotalEnergies more than halved its debt-to-capital, or gearing, ratio to 4%, underlining its comparatively strong balance sheet. Gearing at Shell, which is on track for a record year of profits, increased slightly to 20.3%.

Despite their hefty profits, shares of Shell and its European peers TotalEnergies and BP have so far this year significantly under-performed their larger U.S. rivals Exxon Mobil and Chevron whose business models are weighted much more towards fossil fuels than renewables.

While Shell and BP’s shares have gained around 40%, Exxon is up 75% and Chevron over 50%.

Shares in Norway’s Equinor have also gained 54%, spurred by the gas price surge.

Spain’s Repsol on Thursday reported a doubling of its profit to 1.48 billion euros ($1.49 billion).

(Shell’s quarterly profits recede from recent records https://graphics.reuters.com/SHELL-RESULTS/lbpgnwlwnvq/chart.png)

($1 = 0.9938 euros)

(Additional reporting by Benjamin Mallet; editing by Barbara Lewis)

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By Brendan Pierson

(Reuters) – TikTok Inc won dismissal of a lawsuit accusing it of causing the death of a 10-year-old girl by promoting a deadly “blackout challenge” that encouraged people to choke themselves on its video-based social media platform.

U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond in Philadelphia ruled Tuesday that the company was immune from the lawsuit under a part of the federal Communications Decency Act that shields publishers of others’ work.

“The wisdom of conferring such immunity is something properly taken up with Congress, not the courts,” Diamond wrote.

Jeffrey Goodman, a lawyer for the girl’s mother, Tawainna Anderson, said in a statement that the family would “continue to fight to make social media safe so that no other child is killed by the reckless behavior of the social media industry.”

TikTok did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Anderson sued TikTok and its Chinese parent company ByteDance Inc in May, saying the company’s algorithm showed her daughter, Nylah Anderson, a video suggesting the blackout challenge.

In December 2021, Nylah attempted the blackout challenge using a purse strap hung in her mother’s closet, losing consciousness and suffering severe injuries, according to the lawsuit. She was rushed to a hospital but died five days later.

TikTok and ByteDance moved to dismiss the case, saying that under Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, they could not be held liable for publishing third-party content. Diamond, while saying that the circumstances were “tragic,” agreed.

TikTok and other social media companies, including Facebook and Instagram parent Meta Platforms Inc and YouTube parent Alphabet Inc, are facing a growing number of lawsuits around the country seeking to hold them liable for causing young people to become addicted to their products, and in some cases causing harm including eating disorders, self-injury and suicide.

A federal judicial panel earlier this month consolidated dozens of such cases in a new mass tort in a federal court in Oakland, California.

(Reporting By Brendan Pierson in New York; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

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By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) – The China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has warned governments against building new fossil fuel power stations out of panic during the current global energy crisis, saying such moves could result in decades of environmental harm.

There is now a real risk that worried governments rush to open or reopen coal and other heavily polluting power stations to bolster their energy supplies, Jang Ping Thia, one of the AIIB’s lead economists, warned.

“We should avoid making serious mistakes in this panic,” he said. “Don’t let a one-year crisis lock you in for the next 25-30 years.”

Beijing-headquartered AIIB’s annual infrastructure finance report, published on Thursday, lays out its stance for what is shaping up to be a difficult United Nations Climate Change COP 27 summit in Egypt next month.

It called for heavily-polluting state-owned firms to be rapidly turned into green energy “leaders”, putting special focus on China, India and Indonesia, noting that a global net-zero transition would not succeed without their cooperation.

AIIB President Jin Liqun also gave a clear nod to what is likely to be the key point of tension in Egypt – that while richer countries have produced most of the CO2 and other greenhouse gases, it will be the world’s poorest countries that bear the brunt of climate change.

“Emerging and developing economies deserve more than just access to necessary financial and technical support to address the legacies of environmental injustice. They also deserve more attention,” Jin said.

China, which accounts for around 30% of global CO2 emissions, is the largest shareholder in the AIIB holding 26.5% of its voting power.

The report called for pollution-cutting technologies to be shared globally and for countries to stop subsidising fossil fuels – something many have done this year as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring – so that a “meaningful carbon price” can emerge and make investing in fossil fuels more costly.

The bank also pledged support for countries now facing serious debt problems.

The AIIB has outlined a $100 million fund for crisis-hit Sri Lanka and is expected to announce a major support package for Pakistan at the upcoming COP summit following the country’s devastating floods.

“In our uncertain era, one of the lingering pandemic disruptions and rising geopolitical tensions, we remain prepared to respond swiftly to help members who may fall prey to the volatile global economic conditions ahead,” Jin said.

(Reporting by Marc Jones; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

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By Tom Sims

COLOGNE, Germany (Reuters) – Deep inside a decommissioned nuclear bunker built into a Cologne subway station at the height of the Cold War, tour guide Robert Schwienbacher says he is getting a number of inquiries from Germans asking for space available in an emergency.

Concerns of Germans that dissipated with the fall of the Berlin Wall are now creeping back after decades of peace. It is a flashback for a nation that found itself at the geographic and political centre of the Cold War.

President Vladimir Putin has in recent months escalated his “special military operation” in Ukraine, calling up reservists and threatening to use nuclear weapons to defend Russian land, while U.S. President Joe Biden has talked of “Armageddon”.

“No one should use nuclear weapons,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz warned earlier this month.

Days later, a survey by insurer R+V found that 42% of Germans now fear a war with German participation, up from 16% last year, the biggest jump since the Kosovo War in 1999.

With the Ukraine border less than a nine-hour drive from Berlin, war feels uncomfortably close for many, though there is no imminent threat on domestic soil.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has nevertheless prompted a rethink in a nation that was a primary beneficiary of the thaw between East and West after the fall of Communism more than 30 years ago.

Schwienbacher said requests for bunker space, either by email or verbally, during every tour he gives, only started since the war and are giving him a reason to reflect.

“I am only human and also worry that it could get worse,” Schwienbacher said.

“Germany is a flashpoint in Europe,” he said under the hum of fluorescent lights in the dim bunker.

(GRAPHIC: War fears in Germany – https://graphics.reuters.com/UKRAINE-CRISIS/znvnbdzqqvl/chart.png)

Lars Pohlmeier, a German medical doctor, once detained behind the Iron Curtain as a teen, said he is relieved his 15-year-old son is heading to Canada for studies.

“If I have ever had the feeling that we are at the brink of annihilation, that would be now,” he said.

The former West Germany built 2,000 public bunker-like “protection spaces” from the mid-1960s. In 2007, the government of a unified Germany decided to wind them down.

But the conflict in Ukraine has prompted Germany to hold on to the remaining 599 and its Federal Real Estate Agency is in the process of surveying them for possible upgrades.

Meanwhile, demand for private bunkers has soared.

Berlin-based BSSD, which installs such units, has seen a jump of at least 300% in orders this year from previous years, spokesperson Mark Schmiechen said.

“A change has taken place. Before we were seen as freaky outsiders,” Schmiechen said. “Today we are hip.”

On the eve of German reunification in October 1990, then Chancellor Helmut Kohl thanked Russia’s Mikhail Gorbachev for the thaw that led to a united Germany, saying that the era which preceded it should never be repeated or forgotten.

Felix Ludwig, who was born that year, curates a museum at a former East-West motorway checkpoint in Marienborn, where some people died as they tried to flee East Germany.

“One has the impression that the fear of a World War Three is growing,” Ludwig said.

While some Germans are nervous, not everyone fears another Cold War.

Stuttgart mayor Frank Nopper grew up next to neighbours who bought a vacation home in Spain to flee any hostilities in Germany during the Cold War. He said his city feels closer than many German municipalities to the Ukraine war because his region is home to two U.S. military command centres.

“Although many people are worried and unsettled these days, they do not feel any immediate threat – at least not yet,” he said.

Anxiety in Europe’s largest economy is heightened by double-digit inflation, and concerns about energy shortages after years of heavy reliance upon Russia for fossil fuels.

Eva Weber, mayor of the Bavarian city of Augsburg, said this month she is preparing for various crisis scenarios that include electricity and heating cuts, an exercise that is playing out in towns throughout Germany.

On Dec. 8 at 11 a.m., all of Germany’s sirens will sound in a test, in a second-ever “warning day”, and in a first, text messages will also be sent to all mobile phones.

Towns near U.S. military bases are particularly on edge.

The mayor of Kaiserslautern, home to the U.S. base Ramstein, said Russia’s nuclear rhetoric is designed to stir up fears in the West to erode support for Ukraine.

“It is only understandable that fears are making a comeback,” said the mayor, Klaus Weichel.

Peter Degenhardt, mayor of neighbouring Landstuhl, said he and his constituents fear a “hybrid war”.

Cologne was flattened in World War Two through hundreds of air raids, although its famous cathedral remained standing.

In 1979, the city built its now decommissioned bunker into the Kalk Post metro station. Above is a lively neighbourhood of Turkish travel agencies, barbers and restaurants. Below is a space designed for 2,366 people to survive for exactly 14 days.

Schwienbacher said temperatures would quickly rise to 37 degrees Celsius in close quarters, with no showers and small boxes of provisions that should be eaten over two days.

“It was built more to calm the people than protect them,” Schwienbacher said.

In one of several emails sent to Schwienbacher and seen by Reuters, a person asks: “Are these bunkers still operational for us in the event of a possible war?”

After 14 days, diesel, water and other supplies would run out and, Schwienbacher said, people would be forced to exit, “no matter what it looks like outside”.

(Reporting by Tom Sims; Editing by Alexander Smith and David Evans)

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By David Kirton

SHENZHEN, China (Reuters) – China’s Huawei Technologies reported modest revenue growth for a second quarter on Thursday, citing steady growth in its ICT infrastructure business as it finds its footing after U.S. sanctions knocked its once mighty handset business.

Huawei posted revenue of 445.8 billion yuan ($62.03 billion)for the first three quarters, 10 billion yuan less than it saw in the same period a year earlier, the company said on Thursday.

Profits fell 42.45% in the same period to 26.75 billion yuan, based on Reuters calculations, a drop a company spokesperson attributed to investment in research and development and new business areas.

Revenue for the third quarter alone came to 144.2 billion yuan, up 6.5% on a year earlier, based on Reuters calculations.

Performance was in line with the company’s forecast, said rotating Chairman Eric Xu.

“The decline in our device business continued to slow down, and our ICT infrastructure business maintained steady growth.”

The United States placed Huawei on an export blacklist in 2019, banning the telecom giant from buying components and technology from U.S. companies without U.S. government approval.

The move largely hobbled Huawei’s handset business, which commanded 42% of the China market in 2019. The company is now a bit player behind rivals, including its former budget unit Honor, which it sold in 2020.

Huawei is pushing to develop other businesses that are less dependent on U.S. technology, including smart car components, energy efficiency systems and cloud services.

In its first nine months the Aito M5 vehicle, which Huawei jointly developed with Seres, ranked 10th among all electric SUV models by sales in China, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

($1 = 7.1870 Chinese yuan)

(Additional reporting by Zhang Yang; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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By Georgina Lee and Samuel Shen

HONG KONG/SHANGHAI (Reuters) – China’s digital yuan took the centre stage in the world’s largest cross-border central bank digital currency (CBDC) trial to date, a report showed, pointing to how Beijing is speeding up yuan globalization efforts amid rising geopolitical tensions.

    China’s digital currency, or e-CNY, was the most issued, and actively transacted token in the $22 million pilot that used CBDCs to settle cross-border trades, a Bank of International Settlement (BIS) report showed.

    The six-week test, which ended late last month, is part of m-Bridge – a project that pilots cross-border payments in digital currencies issued by central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand and United Arab Emirates.

    The successful completion of the large-scale testing comes amid rising global tensions.

    “Many countries around the world, including China, are wary of U.S. financial sanctions,” said G. Bin Zhao, senior economist at PwC China.

    “This provides a historic window for China to promote yuan internationalization as the U.S. weaponizes the dollar,” he said, adding that the e-CNY provides a shortcut.

    Russia was kicked out of the dollar system by the West following its February invasion of Ukraine which Moscow has called “special operations.”    

During the just-ended Communist Party Congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged “reunification” with Taiwan, saying China does not “renounce the use of force”.

Washington has warned Beijing that the sanctions it coordinated against Russia should serve as a warning as to what to expect should Beijing move against self-ruled Taiwan.

    “The perceived threat from the U.S. … has made RMB globalization more of a necessity than luxury to ensure economic and financial security,” said Shuang Ding, chief economist, Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered (HK) Ltd.

    A yuan internationalisation tracker complied by Standard Chartered hit a new high in July, driven by strong issuance of yuan-denominated bonds in Hong Kong, latest data shows.

    To promote global use of the yuan, the PBOC in July upgraded a currency swap facility with Hong Kong to a permanent agreement, and in September, China agreed to set up a yuan clearing hub in Kazakhstan.

    In Russia, use of the yuan in global payments has surged since the western sanctions, and a growing number of Russian companies, including Rosneft, Rusal, and Polyus, have issued yuan bonds.

    GLOBAL AMBITION

    China is at the fore of a global race to develop CBDCs, and is ramping up domestic pilot schemes, mainly for retail payments.

    The PBOC’s participation in m-Bridge represents its ambition to eventually promote global, wholesale use of the e-CNY.

    A total of 11.8 million yuan ($1.64 million) worth of e-CNY was issued in the testing between Aug 15. and Sept. 23, and the Chinese currency was used in a total of 72 payment and foreign exchange transactions, far greater than the other three currencies each.

    China’s top five state banks, including Bank of China and China Construction Bank, participated in the pilot, settling the CBDCs on behalf of their corporate clients.

    The relatively high number of e-CNY issuances “could reflect greater demand for yuan-denominated transactions”, given the country’s high share of regional trade, the BIS Innovation Hub Hong Kong Centre said in the report.  

HEADWINDS   

    The m-Bridge project, launched jointly by the BIS innovation hub and the four participating central banks, aims eventually to build a common platform for efficient, low-cost digital payment to promote global trade.

    But China’s yuan internationalisation, digital or not, faces challenges amid a slowing economy ravaged by COVID flare-ups, and a property debt crisis.

    “Whether it’s the e-CNY or the yuan, at the end of the day, China’s national strength is the decisive factor,” PwC’s Zhao said.

    “The yuan or e-CNY would be widely accepted only with the endorsement of China’s solid economic development.”

    Another headwind is a slumping yuan, which has lost roughly 12% against the U.S. dollar this year.  

    “Sustained depreciation due to worsening fundamentals could weaken confidence in the currency,” Standard Chartered’s Ding said.

The yuan’s share as a global payments currency has climbed for five straight months, but remains low, standing at 2.44% in September, compared with 42.3% for the U.S. dollar, and 35.2% for the euro, according to SWIFT, the global financial messaging system.

($1 = 7.1952 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Reporting by Georgina Lee and Samuel Shen; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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By Dagmarah Mackos

(Reuters) -French IT consulting group Capgemini sees demand slowing in 2023 but expects results at the top end of guidance this year driven by its cloud, data and artificial intelligence businesses.

“The group expects demand to decelerate a bit in the coming quarters, but it remains confident that 2023 will be a year of growth, even if probably not as strong as in 2022,” Chief Executive Aiman Ezzat said on a media call on Thursday.

His comments come amid growing fears that an economic slowdown could dent IT budgets after gloomy results from tech giants Alphabet Inc and Microsoft Corp.

The company has forecast revenue growth in 2022 of between 14% and 15% on a constant currency basis and an operating margin of 12.9% to 13.1%, which analysts said could be seen as conservative given healthy demand.

Capgemini shares were down more than 2% at 0727 GMT.

The company estimates growth in the fourth quarter at around 10%, chief financial officer Carole Ferrand said on the call.

The group reported third-quarter revenue of 5.55 billion euros ($15.8 billion), up 15.7% from the same period a year earlier at constant exchange rates. Bookings in the quarter rose 13% to 5.43 billion euros.

“Given this very good Q3 performance, we now feel comfortable with the top end of our growth outlook for

2022,” Ezzat said in the company’s statement.

It expanded its workforce 16% year on year, reaching headcount of 358,400 at the end of September.

The group also said it will hire less as growth slows and attrition rate moderates in a stabilising talent market.

The high demand for IT specialists due to a shortage of available workers has forced many companies to increase wages to attract new talent in a competitive market.

($1 = 0.9936 euros)

(Reporting by Dagmarah Mackos; Editing by Josephine Mason, Edwina Gibbs and Jane Merriman)

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(Reuters) – Spain’s unemployment rate crept up to 12.67% in the third quarter from 12.48% the previous quarter while overall employment also increased, data from the National Statistics Institute showed on Thursday.

The rise was driven by an increase in the number of people declaring themselves to be looking for work.

Employment continued to grow in the third quarter, rising by 2.57% compared with the same period last year to 20.54 million jobs.

The summer quarter is the high season for tourism in Spain, and the service sector saw the biggest growth, with employment rising strongly in the Balearic Islands and Catalonia.

Gross domestic product data for the summer will be published on Friday, but forecasts point to a slowdown caused by high inflation, which remained above 10% in the summer months.

In the second quarter, the economy expanded 1.5% compared with the previous quarter.

(Reporting by Jakub Olesiuk and Belén Carreño; Editing by Inti Landauro and Hugh Lawson)

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By Joyce Lee and Heekyong Yang

SEOUL (Reuters) – Samsung Electronics said on Thursday its supply of memory chips will grow faster than its peers and its investments will proceed as planned, bucking the broader industry move to scale back output and spending amid growing recession fears.

Samsung’s apparent confidence indicates it intends to use a sharp and sudden downturn in worldwide tech demand to consolidate its dominance in memory chips and catch up with bigger rival TSMC in contract chip manufacturing, analysts said.

The South Korean firm also said on Thursday its de facto leader Jay Y. Lee, who it says was behind its decision to make aggressive investments in contract chipmaking, was appointed as executive chairman.

“We are not considering an artificial production cut,” Han Jin-man, executive vice president of memory business at Samsung, told analysts after posting a 31% plunge in quarterly profit.

“Market demand has contracted right now, but … we need to prepare for mid- to long-term demand recovery.”

Samsung said it did not expect much change to its 2023 memory chip investment plans, in contrast to smaller rival SK Hynix, which on Wednesday warned of an “unprecedented deterioration” in memory chip demand and slashed 2023 investment by more than 50%.

Earlier this month TSMC also cut its annual investment budget by at least 10% for 2022 and struck a more cautious note than usual on upcoming demand. Samsung plans to invest 54 trillion won this year, of which 47.7 trillion won ($34 billion)is earmarked for its components business, mainly semiconductors.

Samsung said geopolitical uncertainties were likely to dampen demand for semiconductors until early 2023. For NAND flash chips, Samsung forecast the market may not recover in 2023.

Even so, it said it would boost shipments of memory chips at a faster rate than its peers across the industry. Samsung does not publish specific details of its supply plans.

In the contract chip business, where Samsung is a distant No.2 behind TSMC, it expected record sales and operating profit this year.

“Samsung seems to be saying it will use this downcycle to push out other NAND flash firms like SK Hynix and Kioxia,” said Park Sung-soon, analyst at Cape Investment & Securities.

Shares in Samsung closed up 0.2% in afternoon trade, but SK Hynix shares tumbled 4.2%. The wider market was up 1.7%.

ECONOMIES OF SCALE

Although Samsung’s fourth-quarter earnings are expected to dip further as memory chip prices continue to fall, Samsung will be better able to defend profits than peers due to economies of scale, analysts said.

Samsung is expected to keep capital expenditure cuts to a minimum in 2023 versus 2022 – at about 5% for memory chips – to continue its migration into more advanced manufacturing, which will initially curtail supplies of certain chips due to new production process, said Daishin Securities analyst Wi Min-bok.

This differs from rivals SK Hynix or Micron Technology’s plan to potentially cut investment by more than 30% next year.

Samsung’s operating profit fell to 10.85 trillion won ($7.7 billion) for the July-September quarter, from 15.8 trillion won a year earlier, the first year-on-year decline in nearly three years as its chip business profit fell to 5.12 trillion won from 10.07 trillion won a year earlier.

That was in line with Samsung’s own estimate of 10.8 trillion won earlier this month. Revenue rose 4% to 76.8 trillion won.

Samsung said profit in its mobile business fell slightly to 3.24 trillion won from 3.36 trillion won a year earlier, as a market downturn was offset by firmer demand for high-end smartphones and newly launched wearables.

Samsung forecast 2023 mobile demand could recover slightly from 2022, and said it planned to focus on its flagship and foldable smartphones to harness comparatively robust appetite for premium products.

($1 = 1,416.8000 won)

(Reporting by Joyce Lee and Heekyong Yang; Editing by Miyoung Kim and Stephen Coates)

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COPENHAGEN (Reuters) – Danish brewer Carlsberg has seen little evidence of rising inflation hitting beer sales, but that could change going into 2023 as brewers continue to raise prices, Chief Executive Cees ‘t Hart said on Thursday.

“So far we have seen very little evidence of any consumer impact of rising inflation,” Hart said on a conference call following a quarterly trading statement published on Wednesday.

“But as inflation continues to increase and brewers raise prices again in the second half of this year and beginning of 2023, we see a bigger risk ahead of downtrading and lower volumes,” he said.

Anheuser-Busch InBev and Carlsberg, the world’s largest and third-largest brewers, respectively, have raised full-year profit outlook this week.

(Reporting by Jacob Gronholt-Pedersen; Editing by Mike Harrison)

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By Cynthia Kim

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s central bank announced more measures on Thursday to improve liquidity in the banking system and mitigate the fallout from a developer’s debt default which is sparking fears of a credit crunch in Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

Gangwon Jungdo Development Corp., the developer of the new Legoland Korea theme park two hours east of Seoul, missed bond payments worth 205 billion won ($144 million) due on Sept. 29.

The news shocked some investors given that the debts, asset-backed commercial paper guaranteed by the local government, were then rated A1. About 10 local brokerages are among the debt holders.

The default has led to a sudden freezing of short-term money markets in the country just as the Bank of Korea’s 250 basis points worth of rate hikes since mid-last year are battering the once-booming property market. Local brokerages are also heavily exposed to real estate project finances.

Growing signs that Korean companies are having trouble obtaining financing come against the backdrop of volatile global financial markets and China’s property market crisis, something the BOK will need to consider as analysts expect policy rates to rise further to 3.50% or 3.75% by next year.

Data earlier on Thursday showed South Korea’s economic growth fell to its slowest in a year in the third quarter.

Policymakers have announced a flurry of measures since Sunday to inject more money into the financial system, including the doubling of a corporate bond-buying facility to 16 trillion won.

That was part of a 50 trillion won package to prop up credit markets, which focused on buying commercial paper and other debt issued by financial institutions.

On Thursday, the BOK said it will loosen collateral policies for local financial institutions applying for loans from the bank.

The bank will also open a temporary repurchase agreement facility worth about 6 trillion won ($4.24 billion) for local financial institutions to support the smooth functioning of financial markets.

The measures come as the yield on 91-day commercial paper surged to 13-year high of 4.55% on Thursday from 1.55% at the start of the year. The country’s benchmark share index has been little fazed by the default news.

The theme park opened in May.

Caught off-guard by the default, even corporate bond sales by AAA rated state-run Korea Electric Power Corp. failed to get enough bidders on Tuesday.

“The Legoland issue has really triggered worries about a credit crunch and more are also worried about financial conditions at some brokerages and construction firms,” said Han Kwang-yeol, an analyst at NH Investment & Securities.

“The recovery of this credit market will be a slow one given that central banks all around the world are still hiking rates to curb inflation.”

To ease the market jitters, Gangwon Province, which is obligated to repay the loan as state guarantor of GJC’s debt, said on Thursday it will fully pay the entire 205 billion won by Dec. 15.

“The decision (to repay the debt) has been coordinated with the government including the Ministry of Economy and Finance,” said Jeong Kwang-yeol, deputy governor on economic affairs for Gangwon Province.

Lee Bok-hyun, the governor of the Financial Supervisory Service, separately said he expects market nerves to ease by next week.

“Today we saw Gangwon Provice’s detailed debt repayment plans regarding Legoland.. After the weekend, market sentiment will improve,” Lee told reporters in Incheon, Yonhap News reported.

($1 = 1,422.7300 won)

(Reporting by Cynthia Kim; Editing by Christian Schmollinger, Ana Nicolaci da Costa and Kim Coghill)

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NEWARK, N.J. – A Hudson County, New Jersey, man was convicted of possessing a loaded firearm, and possessing with intent to distribute controlled substances on three different occasions, U.S. Attorney Philip R. Sellinger announced today.

Clarence Gaffney, 36, of Jersey City, was convicted on Oct. 26, 2022, following a three-day trial before U.S. District Judge Susan D. Wigenton in Newark federal court on three counts of possession with intent to distribute controlled substances, and one count of possession of firearm and ammunition by a convicted felon.

According to documents filed in this case and the evidence at trial:

On Oct. 5, 2019, during a motor vehicle stop, Gaffney possessed heroin and cocaine in his underwear and shoe. On Dec. 26, 2019, after law enforcement officers observed Gaffney selling drugs on MLK Drive and arrested him, heroin and cocaine were recovered from his jacket sleeve. On Feb. 21, 2020, during a motor vehicle stop, a search of Gaffney’s vehicle revealed heroin hidden in a fuse compartment on the driver’s side and a Glock 22 .40 caliber firearm loaded with 11 rounds of .40 caliber ammunition found inside a fuse compartment on the passenger side.

The firearm charge carries a maximum potential penalty of 10 years in prison and a maximum fine of $250,000. The drug charges each carry a maximum potential penalty of 20 years in prison and a maximum fine of $1 million.

U.S. Attorney Sellinger credited members of the Drug Enforcement Administration, under the direction of Special Agent in Charge Susan A. Gibson; special agents of the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, under the Direction of Special Agent in Charge Jeffrey L. Matthews; the Jersey City Police Department, under the direction Director James Shea;, and Hudson County Prosecutor’s Office, under the direction of Prosecutor Esther Suarez, with the investigation leading to the conviction.

This investigation was conducted as part of the Jersey City Violent Crime Initiative (VCI). The VCI was formed in 2018 by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the District of New Jersey, the Hudson County Prosecutor’s Office, and the Jersey City Police Department, for the sole purpose of combatting violent crime in and around Jersey City.  As part of this partnership, federal, state, county, and city agencies collaborate to strategize and prioritize the prosecution of violent offenders who endanger the safety of the community.  The VCI is composed of the U.S. Attorney’s Office, the FBI, the ATF, the Drug Enforcement Administration’s (DEA) New Jersey Division, the U.S. Marshals, the Jersey City Police Department, the Hudson County Prosecutor’s Office, the Hudson County Sheriff’s Office, New Jersey State Parole, the Hudson County Jail, and the New Jersey State Police Regional Operations and Intelligence Center/Real Time Crime Center.

The government is represented by Assistant U.S. Attorneys Cassye Cole and Megan Linares of the U.S. Attorney’s Office Criminal Division in Newark.

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