SEOUL (Reuters) -South Korea’s government said on Thursday it would ease regulations on the housing sector and boost policy support for the rechargeable battery and shipbuilding sectors to offset the growing downside economic risks ahead.

The pledges were unveiled at a rare televised meeting of ministers headed by President Yoon Suk-yeol hours after central bank estimates showed Asia’s fourth-largest economy posted its slowest growth in a year in the third quarter.

The financial regulator said financial restrictions on the housing sector would be eased to boost housing transactions, such as raising the ratio of maximum mortgage borrowing in the capital area to 50% from as low as 20% at present.

The industry minister said at the meeting his ministry would announce policy support measures as early as next month to further strengthen global leadership of the country’s rechargeable battery manufacturers.

The land minister said his ministry would strengthen efforts to win more of the growing construction projects at energy producing countries in the wake of the surge in global energy prices.

Yoon, suffering from poor public support ratings in opinion polls as the economy loses momentum, has been hosting similar meetings frequently since taking office in early May but this was the first televised session.

Finance Minister Choo Kyung-ho highlighted how South Korea’s heavily export-dependent economy faced growing risks due to a mix of high interest rates, the U.S. dollar’s strength and sky-rocketing inflation across the world.

(Reporting by Choonsik Yoo; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Lincoln Feast)

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By David Morgan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Republican U.S. Senate candidate Herschel Walker, who has said he opposes abortion with no exceptions, faced fresh allegations on Wednesday from a second woman who said he pressured her to have an abortion and paid for the procedure after a six-year relationship with him.

Walker, who hopes to unseat Democratic incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia in a Nov. 8 election that could determine which party controls the Senate, has already denied allegations from another woman who claims he paid for her to have an abortion in 2009 and that she later gave birth to one of his children.

Neither woman has revealed her identity publicly. The first to come forward provided supporting documents to the Daily Beast, an online media outlet, including a check.

“I’m done with this foolishness. I’ve already told people this is a lie,” Walker said when asked about the claim, according to video posted by Atlanta media. He has called the first woman’s assertions a “flat-out lie.”

Reuters has not been able to independently confirm either woman’s claim.

The woman making the new claim, identified only as “Jane Doe,” spoke by phone to a news conference organized by attorney Gloria Allred in Los Angeles.

“Herschel Walker is a hypocrite, and he is not fit to be a U.S. senator,” the woman said. “We don’t need people in the Senate who profess one thing and do another. Herschel Walker says he is against women having abortions. But he pressured me to have one.”

Allred said the woman had years of documents, including receipts and greeting cards, documenting her romantic relationship with Walker from the late 1980s through the 1990s. She showed some of these at the news conference.

The woman told reporters she became pregnant in April 1993. The former NFL football star encouraged her to have an abortion and gave her the money to pay for one, she said.

She said she went to a Dallas clinic intending to have an abortion, but decided against it and left. She said that Walker talked her into going forward with the procedure and drove her to the clinic the next day, where she went ahead with the abortion.

“He pressured me to have an abortion and personally ensured it occurred by driving me to the clinic and paying for it,” the woman said in a voice heavy with emotion.

Republicans have sought to characterize the allegations against Walker as a “smear” campaign by Democrats and instead have emphasized the potential for the toss-up Georgia race to decide which party controls the Senate in the last two years of Democratic President Joe Biden’s term.

Walker, a political novice endorsed by former President Donald Trump, has said he opposes abortion, including for rape, incest or to protect the health or life of the mother.

Allegations about abortion represent the latest scandal for Walker, a first-time candidate for office who has also faced allegations of domestic violence.

Warnock, who serves as pastor at the Atlanta church once led by Martin Luther King Jr., backs access to abortion and other reproductive healthcare, saying on his campaign website that the U.S. Supreme Court’s June decision to overturn Roe v. Wade “cannot stand.”

Recent polls show the race to be close, with Warnock holding a lead of a few percentage points, though short of the 50% threshold needed to avoid a Dec. 6 runoff election.

(Reporting by David Morgan; Editing by Scott Malone, Cynthia Osterman and Jonathan Oatis)

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By Johan Ahlander

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) -Swedbank on Thursday reported a better-than-expected operating profit for the third quarter, underpinned by strong income from mortgages.

The Swedish bank said in a statement its quarterly operating profit rose 24% to 8.70 billion crowns ($801 million) from 7.03 billion crowns posted last year, beating the 7.19 billion crowns seen by analysts in a Refinitiv poll.

“The quarter was marked by high and rising inflation and the response by central banks to tackle this,” Swedbank CEO Jens Henriksson said during a conference call. “Due to our position and business model, our net interest income benefits from this.”

Soaring inflation, fuelled in part by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, has seen central banks rapidly hiking rates, lifting interest income at Swedish banks but also squeezing households and businesses and depressing stock markets, potentially driving a rise in loan losses in the coming quarters.

“So far, we have not seen any material changes to the credit quality. The reservations we have made of 600 million crowns are macro and model-driven,” Henriksson said.

Swedbank, a rival of banks such as Handelsbanken, SEB and Nordea, said its interest income, which includes revenue from mortgages, rose to 8.36 billion crowns from 6.79 billion crowns a year ago and above the 7.56 billion analysts had forecast.

Commission income fell to 3.63 billion crowns from 3.80 billion crowns last year, beating the 3.53 billion seen by analysts.

Swedbank said high inflation, especially in the Baltic countries, meant that full-year expenses were likely to be around 1% higher than the cost cap of 20.5 billion crowns.

($1 = 10.8585 Swedish crowns)

(Reporting by Johan Ahlander, Editing by Terje Solsvik, Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Lincoln Feast.)

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SHANGHAI (Reuters) – The yuan briefly touched a 1-1/2-week high against the dollar before giving back all the gains by midday on Thursday as Chinese cities tightened curbs against growing COVID outbreaks, adding to pressure on the economy.

The yuan has had a roller-coaster ride this week, falling to a near 15-year low on Tuesday before bouncing to book sharp gains in a day after, as cautious traders and companies raced to liquidate long dollar positions following state bank dollar selling to prop up the local unit.

Prior to the market opening on Thursday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the midpoint rate at 7.1570 per dollar, 68 pips firmer than the previous fix 7.1638.

Traders and analysts said the midpoint came in line with market projections and effectively guided the spot prices closer to the official guidance rate. Thursday’s fixing was 3 pips firmer than Reuters’ estimate of 7.1573.

The official midpoint “helped to stabilise sentiment and reaffirmed the view that disorderly or one-off sharp adjustment is not what the Chinese policymakers want,” Christopher Wong, FX strategist at OCBC Bank, said in a note.

The onshore yuan opened at 7.1632 per dollar and strengthened to a high of 7.16 at one point, the strongest level since Oct. 18. But by midday, it was changing hands at 7.2165, 455 pips or 0.6% weaker than the previous late session close.

“While the panic selling in RMB and Chinese assets appears to be over, we expect the CNH and CNY spot to enter a range-trading mode between 7.1 and 7.3 in the short term and the USD movement as well as updates on China policy roadmap under new leadership will be the key driver for the RMB,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian FX strategist at Mizuho Bank.

Some traders and analysts said yuan sentiment early in the day also got a boost from mounting market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will tone down its aggressive stance on interest rate hikes, which prompted a pullback in the dollar.

[FRX/]

Moreover, companies usually have higher yuan demand for various payments heading into the year-end.

Households and companies also have started to settle their FX receipts after getting hold of such conversions for better prices, according to some currency traders, noting the conversions could provide additional support for the local unit.

However, the struggling economy is likely to continue to pressure the yuan, some analysts said.

“The medium-term uptrend (in USD/RMB) remains in place given China’s economic headwinds, but the authorities will continue to strive to manage the move,” said Alvin Tan, head of Asia strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

The economy rebounded at a faster-than-anticipated clip in the third quarter, but a more robust revival in the longer term will be challenged by persistent COVID-19 curbs, a deep property slump and global recession risks.

China on Thursday reported a third straight day of more than 1,000 new COVID cases nationwide, a modest tally compared with the tens of thousands per day that sent Shanghai into a full-blown lockdown earlier this year but enough to trigger more curbs and restrictions across the country.

Cities from Wuhan in central China to Xining in the northwest are doubling down on COVID-19 curbs, sealing up buildings, locking down districts and throwing millions into distress in a scramble to halt widening outbreaks.

In another worrying sign, data showed profits at big industrial firms fell at a faster clip in the January-September period.

By midday, the global dollar index stood at 109.769, while the offshore yuan was trading at 7.2313 per dollar.

The yuan market at 0401 GMT:

ONSHORE SPOT:

Item Current Previous Change

PBOC midpoint 7.157 7.1638 0.10%

Spot yuan 7.2165 7.171 -0.63%

Divergence from 0.83%

midpoint*

Spot change YTD -11.94%

Spot change since 2005 14.69%

revaluation

Key indexes:

Item Current Previous Change

Thomson 0.0

Reuters/HKEX

CNH index

Dollar index 109.769 109.7 0.1

*Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to rise or fall 2 percent from official midpoint rate it sets each morning.

OFFSHORE CNH MARKET

Instrument Current Difference

from onshore

Offshore spot yuan * 7.2313 -0.20%

Offshore 7.077 1.13%

non-deliverable

forwards **

*Premium for offshore spot over onshore

**Figure reflects difference from PBOC’s official midpoint, since non-deliverable forwards are settled against the midpoint..

(Reporting by Winni Zhou and Brenda Goh; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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FRANKFURT (Reuters) -Germany’s Lufthansa gave an upbeat forecast for air travel on Thursday, saying it expected demand to remain strong, with high average yields, as holidaymakers splash out on tickets.

Consumer demand for travel in Europe is holding up despite record-high euro zone inflation, with travellers willing to pay higher fares, according to recent statements by airlines including Ryanair and easyJet.

Lufthansa said on Thursday that the continued high premium demand from leisure travellers was especially remarkable, with load factors in Business and First Class exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Its yields, a metric of profitability, jumped by 23% in the third quarter versus 2019, reaching a new record high.

“With this sort of commentary even at the end of October, by when the airline should have significant visibility into November (one of the softest months in a typical year), we could be looking at an industry confounding fears of a macro-driven slowdown even as Europeans turn the heating on,” Bernstein analyst Alex Irving said.

Lufthansa plans to offer around 80% of its pre-pandemic capacity at its airlines in the fourth quarter, which should help it achieve a quarterly operating profit, it said as it published full quarterly financial results.

The group last week raised its forecast for full-year adjusted operating profit to over 1 billion euros ($980 million), boosted by strong demand for air travel that continued its post-COVID recovery.

The company had previously expected adjusted operating profit (EBIT) of more than 500 million euros.

In the third quarter, it posted adjusted EBIT of 1.13 billion euros ($1.14 billion), up from 251 million a year earlier, it said on Thursday.

($1 = 0.9930 euros)

(Reporting by Ilona Wissenbach; writing by Maria Sheahan, editing by Kirsti Knolle and Jason Neely)

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BERLIN (Reuters) – German consumer morale is expected to recover slightly in November, a small reprieve after four consecutive months of record lows, though talk of a trend reversal is far too early at this point, according to a GfK institute survey on Thursday.

The institute said its consumer sentiment index rose to -41.9 heading into November, from a downwardly revised reading of -42.8 in October, and in line with forecasts from analysts polled by Reuters.

“It is certainly too early to speak of a trend reversal at the moment. The situation remains very tense for consumer sentiment,” said GfK consumer expert Rolf Buerkl.

With double-digit inflation and unabated concerns about security of energy supply, “it remains to be seen whether the current stabilization will last, or in light of the coming winter, there is reason to fear a further deterioration of the situation,” added Buerkl.

The economic expectations subindex was the only one to report a fall, dropping to -22.2 in October from -21.9 in September as consumers expect Europe’s largest economy to slip into recession, as also forecast by the government for 2023.

German inflation was at its highest in more than a quarter of a century in September, driven by high energy prices.

Analysts polled by Reuters currently expect October’s EU-harmonised consumer prices to rise 10.9% on the year. The statistics office is set to release preliminary numbers on Friday.

NOV 2022 OCT 2022 NOV 2021

Consumer climate -41.9 -42.8 1.0

Consumer climate components OCT 2022 SEP 2022 OCT 2021

– willingness to buy -17.5 -19.5 19.4

– income expectations -60.5 -67.7 23.3

– business cycle expectations -22.2 -21.9 46.6

NOTE – The survey period was from Oct. 6-17, 2022.

The consumer climate indicator forecasts the development of real private consumption in the following month.

An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier.

According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption.

The “willingness to buy” indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: “Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?”

The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months.

The additional business cycle expectations index reflects the assessment of those questioned of the general economic situation in the next 12 months.

(Reporting by Miranda Murray, editing by Rachel More, Catherine Evans and William Maclean)

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By Samuel Indyk and Harry Robertson

LONDON (Reuters) – Germany, considered Europe’s most reliable debtor, is having trouble selling its bonds, just as it seeks billions to tackle the energy crisis.

Recent weak auctions have demonstrated the challenges of issuing debt in markets racked with uncertainty about interest rates and state spending, and made it harder for Germany – typically a reluctant spender – as it seeks to fund its 200 billion euro ($201.40 billion) scheme to cut domestic energy costs.

Demand was soft at an auction of German 5-year government bonds on Tuesday, but other recent auctions have been “very, very, very bad”, said Michael Leister, head of rates strategy at Commerzbank, likening the situation to a “buyers’ strike”.

Germany’s finance agency sold just 1.78 billion euros ($1.77 billion) of a new 2029 bond earlier this month, for example, with total bids covering less than half of the 4-billion euro target.

The 0.47 bid-to-offer ratio at the sale was the lowest of any 7-year German bond sale and the second lowest of any of its auctions going back to 1999, according to a Reuters analysis of finance agency data. Germany kept 55% of the issuance on its own books, the second-largest amount on record. In the last 12 months, bid-to-offer ratios at auctions of 2-, 7- and 15-year notes have also hit new lows, while separate Refinitiv IFR data shows Germany ended up allocating a third of a recent weak 30-year syndicated bond sale to hedge funds, a very high share for a government sale. A FLOOD OF BONDS Analysts point to two factors. Firstly, the expected surge in German – and broader European – bond issuance as governments tackle the energy crisis, and secondly, central banks’ aggressive rate hikes and their plans to gradually back out of bond markets.

Euro zone governments and the European Union itself are expected to issue a record 400 billion euros of net debt in 2023, according to Bank of America, without the European Central Bank hoovering up issuance as markets have become accustomed to it doing through various emergency schemes. Hit hard by its over-reliance on Russian energy, Germany intends to borrow particularly large amounts in the coming years, with Parliament last week voting to suspend the constitutional debt brake that limits new borrowing. “It is a German story to a large degree, because Germany is the most exposed to the energy transition,” said Piet Haines Christiansen, chief analyst at Danske Bank.

France’s finance agency, in contrast, issued 10 billion euros of medium term bonds on Oct. 20 into strong demand. Rising issuance comes as the ECB weighs plans to start shrinking its asset holdings via so-called quantitative tightening (QT). “Both supply and QT are very new themes, they have just emerged in investors’ minds over the last four weeks or so,” said Sphia Salim, head of European rates strategy at Bank of America. VOLATILITY HURTS AUCTIONS The uncertainty around borrowing and QT has increased volatility in euro zone bond markets, already rocked by the knock-on effects from Britain’s now-scrapped plans for large unfunded tax cuts. Volatility is deterring the banks that act as dealers for German bonds from bidding in debt auctions, Tammo Diemer, head of the country’s finance agency, said at an event on Tuesday. “It is really the volatility that makes it difficult…The members of the Bund auction group take risk when they bid in an auction,” Diemer said, referring to Germany’s primary dealers, who participate in auctions and sell the debt on to investors. Rough market conditions mean those dealers do not want to take on bonds even though there is demand for government debt as collateral in other deals, Commerzbank’s Leister said. Demand has weakened even as the German 10-year yield has shot up from -0.2% at the start of the year to around 2.2%, near its highest since 2011, as prices have slid. “No one wants duration risk here because of the Federal Reserve and the ECB hiking rates,” Leister said, referring to longer-dated debt. Germany’s still relatively low yields also mean buyers can get a better return elsewhere, said Joann Spadigam, rates strategist at NatWest Markets in London. “I think there was probably just weak demand given buyers don’t want to warehouse too much risk into year end and other bonds are more attractive.”

($1 = 1.0063 euros)

(Reporting by Harry Robertson and Samuel Indyk in London; Additional reporting by Yoruk Bahceli; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

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TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan’s economy likely expanded slightly faster in the third quarter compared to the prior quarter but at an anaemic pace due to increased global economic headwinds denting demand for technology which is a key export, a Reuters poll showed.

Gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 3.2% in July-September versus a year earlier, the poll of 20 economists shows, after it expanded 3.05% year-on-year in the second quarter.

Policymakers have said they expect full-year 2022 growth of less than 4%, downgrading it from previous forecasts of more than 4% and slower than the 6.45% logged for 2021. That was the fastest rate in over a decade since it expanded 10.25% in 2010.

Economists’ forecasts for preliminary GDP data due on Friday varied widely from growth of 1.8% to as high as 4.4%.

Demand for Taiwanese goods has been hit by COVID-19 lockdowns in China, as well as soaring global inflation and tightening monetary policy.

Woods Chen, head of macroeconomics at Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting in Taipei, said domestic demand was “not bad” due to Taiwan gradually undoing COVID-19 controls, but the problem was with exports.

“Our estimate is quite low, and of course that’s because of negative growth in exports,” he said, pointing to September’s exports which fell an on-year 5.3%, the first contraction in more than two years.

As a key hub in the global technology supply chain for giants such as Apple Inc, Taiwan’s economy had been outperforming many of its regional peers.

A global shortage of semiconductors has swelled order books for Taiwanese chipmakers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC).

TSMC reported an 80% surge in third-quarter profit, the strongest growth in two years.

The economy in China, Taiwan’s largest trading partner, expanded 3.9% in the third quarter year-on-year, faster than expected and quickening from the 0.4% pace in the second quarter.

Taiwan’s preliminary figures will be released in a statement with minimal commentary. Revised figures will be released a few weeks later, with more details and forward-looking forecasts.

(Poll compiled by Devayani Sathyan and Carol Lee; Reporting by Jeanny Kao and Ben Blanchard)

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By Mike Dolan

LONDON (Reuters) – Central banks may be forced to rethink and even undermine one of their prized emergency policy tools as popular resistance mounts against giant cash transfers to commercial banks while interest rates climb, recession deepens and Treasury coffers drain.

The stakes are high as it potentially affects the future use and effectiveness of extraordinary monetary policies such as bond-buying ‘quantitative easing’ (QE) and questions the wider political independence of central bank policymaking.

The European Central Bank, Bank of England and U.S. Federal Reserve are all – to differing degrees – now facing a backwash from years of policy-driven but lucrative balance sheet expansion. As they lift interest rates, that balance sheet burns a hole in their pockets – or more particularly the pockets of their governments long used to windfalls coming the other way.

It’s the flip side of more than a decade of bond-buying QE – introduced to overcome the limits of near-zero policy rates when deflation fears dominated and which offered banks trillions of dollars of interest-bearing reserves in exchange for the bonds.

With rates falling or near zero, central banks made money on that switch as they hoarded higher yielding bonds, paid next to nothing on commercial bank reserves and transferred the resulting accounting profit to governments for spending.

Now that they’re forced to raise interest rates sharply before significantly reducing those balance sheets, bloated further by pandemic-related support, a massive pay day for the banks is in store while remittances to Treasuries dry up and even reverse.

The optics of those payments to banks while taxpayers go on the hook may prove politically toxic.

“Paying billions to banks for holding the safest possible form of liquidity may trigger criticisms from the public,” Axa Group Chief Economist Gilles Moec wrote, adding that it could be seen as “undue support” when rising rates already lift banks’ net margins and when the public purse is pressured by serial shocks.

Britain has been battling this issue all year.

After channelling some 120 billion pounds in profit to the Treasury over 13 years, the Bank of England last month incurred its first loss for the public finance since it launched its QE programme in 2009 – a 156 million pound monthly loss from its bond portfolio versus interest paid on reserves.

That will surely climb as the BoE is expected to at least double its policy rate, the rate paid on bank reserves, by May. Paul Tucker, the BoE’s former deputy governor, called on the central bank this month to limit the rate it pays on those reserves, and estimated it could save about 40 billion pounds the government is now desperately seeking elsewhere for its Nov. 17 revised budget statement.

And after more than $100 billion of transfers to the Treasury last year alone, the Fed’s net income also turned negative in September and will continue that way for some time as reserve payments rise.

The ECB on Thursday may well reveal how it plans to run the gauntlet.

WAR AND PEACE

With a total of almost 5 trillion euros in excess reserves, the ECB is expected to address how its rising deposit rate allows commercial banks to use the central bank like an ATM, ’round tripping’ emergency funding facilities with rates now lower than those earned from simply depositing the cash back at the ECB.

ECB-watchers think a solution could be some form of ‘reverse tiering’ of the payment of reserves related to amounts taken in so-called Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations (TLTROs) – which make up about a quarter of the ECB balance sheet.

While that may well end up being the least worst option, it’s laced with multiple problems – not least the precedent of retrospectively altering the original terms and conditions of the TLTRO loans and potentially muddying their take-up and effectiveness if needed in a future downturn or another shock.

Unicredit economic adviser Erik Nielsen described that option as “a seriously troublesome road”.

Goldman Sachs rates strategist Simon Freycenet reckons adjustment of TLTRO terms in order to lift that funding rate closer to the ECB deposit rates was probably the “least complicated solution” – but it had “clear disadvantages with regards to future policy and legal risks.”

The cost of doing nothing is barely an option. Axa models show that ECB rates rising to an expected peak of 3% next year would involve an excess reserves shock that depresses the euro zone fiscal balance by 1% in one shot.

All of which underlines the direct fiscal effect of QE monetary policy that many feared would complicate full exit from QE when policy rates need to spike hard to cool inflation – threatening central banks’ independence and their mandate to solely focus on price stability as governments’ political and budget pressures demand otherwise.

Kenneth Rogoff, the International Monetary Fund’s former chief economist, this week restated his argument that the Fed should have considered negative interest rates rather than doubling down on a QE program that’s now politically more difficult to reverse.

“For all their complaints about inflation, one wonders how prepared voters are for yet another deep recession,” Rogoff wrote in Foreign Affairs. “The changes in the political and economic landscape have become so profound that it seems unlikely for the foreseeable future that the Fed will choose to bring inflation down to pre-pandemic levels and keep it there.”

For Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, the political imperatives of the war triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – at least partly responsible for the surge in inflation and interest rates this year – should reasonably dominate narrower market objectives and override opposition to the use of windfall taxes, as they have done in all previous major wars.

“It is a mistake to think that the war can be won with a peacetime economy,” he wrote in a Project Syndicate blog. “No country has ever prevailed in a serious war by leaving markets alone.”

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

(by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD. Reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Editing by Paul Simao)

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TOKYO (Reuters) – Toyota Motor Corp has discovered that even keys can be too “smart” for their own good.

The world’s top-selling carmaker said on Thursday it would replace one of the two electronic “smart” keys it delivers in Japan with a mechanical one for the time being as it races to get cars to customers in Japan.

“As the shortage of semiconductors continues, this is a provisional measure aimed at delivering cars to customers as quickly as possible,” Toyota said in a statement, apologising for the inconvenience.

“As for the second smart key, we plan to hand it over as soon as it is ready,” it added.

A global chips shortage has caused a severe delay in car production and shipments, with many buyers having to wait years to get theirs delivered.

Toyota has been hit particularly hard this year, with natural disasters and other disruptions adding to their troubles.

Last week, the maker of Toyota and Lexus models warned that it would probably be unable to build the 9.7 million vehicles it had initially forecast for the current business year.

(Reporting by Chang-Ran Kim; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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By Mike Spector and Dan Levine

Tesla Inc is under criminal investigation in the United States over claims that the company’s electric vehicles can drive themselves, three people familiar with the matter said.

The U.S. Department of Justice launched the previously undisclosed probe last year following more than a dozen crashes, some of them fatal, involving Tesla’s driver assistance system Autopilot, which was activated during the accidents, the people said.

As early as 2016, Tesla’s marketing materials have touted Autopilot’s capabilities. On a conference call that year, Elon Musk, the Silicon Valley automaker’s chief executive, described it as “probably better” than a human driver.

Last week, Musk said on another call Tesla would soon release an upgraded version of “Full Self-Driving” software allowing customers to travel “to your work, your friend’s house, to the grocery store without you touching the wheel.”

A video currently on the company’s website says: “The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself.”

However, the company also has explicitly warned drivers that they must keep their hands on the wheel and maintain control of their vehicles while using Autopilot.

The Tesla technology is designed to assist with steering, braking, speed and lane changes but its features “do not make the vehicle autonomous,” the company says on its website.

Such warnings could complicate any case the Justice Department might wish to bring, the sources said.  

Tesla, which disbanded its media relations department in 2020, did not respond to written questions from Reuters on Wednesday. Musk also did not respond to written questions seeking comment. A Justice Department spokesperson declined to comment.  

Musk said in an interview with Automotive News in 2020 that Autopilot problems stem from customers using the system in ways contrary to Tesla’s instructions.

Federal and California safety regulators are already scrutinizing whether claims about Autopilot’s capabilities and the system’s design imbue customers with a false sense of security, inducing them to treat Teslas as truly driverless cars and become complacent behind the wheel with potentially deadly consequences.

The Justice Department investigation potentially represents a more serious level of scrutiny because of the possibility of criminal charges against the company or individual executives, the people familiar with the inquiry said.

As part of the latest probe, Justice Department prosecutors in Washington and San Francisco are examining whether Tesla misled consumers, investors and regulators by making unsupported claims about its driver assistance technology’s capabilities, the sources said.

Officials conducting their inquiry could ultimately pursue criminal charges, seek civil sanctions or close the probe without taking any action, they said.

The Justice Department’s Autopilot probe is far from recommending any action partly because it is competing with two other DOJ investigations involving Tesla, one of the sources said. Investigators still have much work to do and no decision on charges is imminent, this source said.

The Justice Department may also face challenges in building its case, said the sources, because of Tesla’s warnings about overreliance on Autopilot.

For instance, after telling the investor call last week that Teslas would soon travel without customers touching controls, Musk added that the vehicles still needed someone in the driver’s seat. “Like we’re not saying that that’s quite ready to have no one behind the wheel,” he said.

The Tesla website also cautions that, before enabling Autopilot, the driver first needs to agree to “keep your hands on the steering wheel at all times” and to always “maintain control and responsibility for your vehicle.”

Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney in Detroit who prosecuted automotive companies and employees in fraud cases and is not involved in the current probe, said investigators likely would need to uncover evidence such as emails or other internal communications showing that Tesla and Musk made misleading statements about Autopilot’s capabilities on purpose.  

SEVERAL PROBES

The criminal Autopilot investigation adds to the other probes and legal issues involving Musk, who became locked in a court battle earlier this year after abandoning a $44 billion takeover of social media giant Twitter Inc, only to reverse course and proclaim excitement for the looming acquisition.

In August 2021, the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened an investigation into a series of crashes, one of them fatal, involving Teslas equipped with Autopilot slamming into parked emergency vehicles.

NHTSA officials in June intensified their probe, which covers 830,000 Teslas with Autopilot, identifying 16 crashes involving the company’s electric cars and stationary first-responder and road maintenance vehicles. The move is a step that regulators must take before requesting a recall. The agency had no immediate comment. 

In July this year, the California Department of Motor Vehicles accused Tesla of falsely advertising its Autopilot and Full Self-Driving capability as providing autonomous vehicle control. Tesla filed paperwork with the agency seeking a hearing on the allegations and indicated it intends to defend against them. The DMV said in a statement it is currently in the discovery stage of the proceeding and declined further comment.  

(Additional reporting by Hyunjoo Jin and David Shepardson; Editing by Deepa Babington)

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By Josh Smith and Hyonhee Shin

SEOUL (Reuters) – A 2018 military agreement between North Korea and South Korea designed to prevent inadvertent clashes along their shared border may be at risk after the South accused the North of violating the deal by firing artillery into buffer zones.

The so-called Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA) was the most substantive deal to come from the months of meetings between leader Kim Jong Un and then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

With those talks long stalled, however, recent drills and shows of force along the fortified border between the Koreas have cast doubts on the future of the measures, which were meant to reduce tensions.

This month South Korea accused Pyongyang of violating the agreement after North Korean artillery shells fell into a maritime buffer zone that is supposed to be free of live-fire drills under the agreement.

The North said South Korea had resumed using propaganda loudspeakers at the border in violation of the agreement. South Korea denied that, but said it did use a “broadcasting device” to try to alert the North to a medical helicopter that had to fly near the border to transport a patient.

For now, South Korea says it is not calling the CMA off, but is urging North Korea to abide by its measures. North Korea has also not officially abrogated the deal, and the South’s ministry of defence told Reuters that inter-Korean military hotlines are operating.

“It prevents mistakes, it prevents misunderstanding and miscalculation that can lead you to resort to hostilities,” a former senior U.S. defence official who served in South Korea said of the agreement, noting a “palpable reduction in tensions” during 2018.

He cautioned that the deal’s collapse wouldn’t automatically mean a higher risk of armed conflict, as the armistice agreement that ended fighting during the 1950-1953 Korean War remains in effect and has prevented a return to overt hostilities so far.

“But if they abrogated it, it’ll be a message to the North basically saying okay, we’re back to square one, and the ‘fire and fury’ of 2017,” he said. “And that’s not helpful.”

GROWING DEBATE

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said during his election campaign before taking office in May that North Korea has been violating the military agreement, and he would urge compliance but might consider scrapping it if there is no change from Pyongyang.

Some hawkish members of Yoon’s conservative People Power Party have sought to reconsider the deal amid North Korea’s record missile launches and signs it could resume testing nuclear weapons for the first time since 2017.

Defence Minister Lee Jong-sup, who ruled out scrapping the pact during his confirmation hearing in May, signalled a shift in the Yoon administration’s thinking this month.

“It is not desirable for us alone to abide by the agreement when North Korea doesn’t,” he said when asked about the deal during a parliamentary hearing on Oct. 4, adding that he would “review the effectiveness” of the agreement depending on the intensity of North Korean provocations.

Unification Minister Kwon Young-se, who handles relations with the North, told parliament on Monday that there is no current consideration of cancelling or suspending any inter-Korean agreements, but that a “qualitative change in the situation in the future” could prompt officials to reconsider.

‘CEASE HOSTILE ACTS’

In the CMA, military leaders from both countries agreed to “completely cease all hostile acts against each other” that are the source of military tension and conflict.

Among other measures, the two sides agreed to end drills near the border, ban live-fire exercises in certain areas, impose no-fly zones, remove some guard posts from the Demilitarized Zone, and maintain hotlines.

This year South Korea and its U.S. allies have responded to a record number of North Korean missile tests with stepped up military drills. Those have been met with more tests and drills from North Korea, including rare warplane sorties near the border.

Observers said legal and political obstacles could prevent either Korea from officially ending the deal, but its measures could increasingly be ignored.

“I think there is a chance of it sort of being abrogated by South Korea if this sort of aggressive public behaviour by North Korea continues, and specifically if there’s a seventh nuclear test,” said the former U.S. defence official, citing recent conversations with South Korean officials.

It’s unlikely that South Korea would respond to North Korean violations in kind, but a breakdown in the hotlines or other communication would be dangerous, said former General Park Cheol-kyun, who worked on international policy at South Korea’s Defense Ministry until May.

“Such channels are critical in any situation, and now things are getting very tense,” he said.

Although unfortunate, a collapse of the CMA would not cause a spike in tensions or threaten stability on the Korean Peninsula, said Duyeon Kim, with the U.S.-based Center for a New American Security.

“If Pyongyang is serious about risk reduction and credible confidence- and security-building measures, then it would return to the dialogue table with South Korea and the United States,” she said.

(Reporting by Josh Smith and Hyonhee Shin. Editing by Gerry Doyle)

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By Makiko Yamazaki and Ritsuko Shimizu

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan Industrial Partners (JIP), the preferred bidder to buy out Toshiba Corp, is having difficulty securing sufficient equity commitments from potential consortium partners by next month, two sources familiar with the matter said.

The private equity firm has been asked by Toshiba to provide a solid proposal with commitment letters from banks by Nov. 7, said the sources, who declined to be identified because deal discussions were private.

Banks have requested that JIP have equity commitments of more than 1 trillion yen ($6.8 billion) from partners, but it has yet to show the banks a list of partners with details of their planned investments, the sources said.

“It will take a while to reach a financing agreement between JIP and the banks,” one of the sources said.

It was not clear what the consequences of failing to meet the Nov. 7 deadline would be.

A representative for JIP was not immediately available for comment. Toshiba, a conglomerate whose businesses include nuclear power, defence technologies and chips, declined to comment on the sale process.

In a move likely to displease Toshiba investors, JIP has offered to pay less than 6,000 yen a share for the scandal-hit company, putting the value of a potential tender offer at less than 2.6 trillion yen ($17.8 billion), separate sources have previously said.

JIP has invited a number of Japanese firms including financial services company Orix Corp and Chubu Electric Power Co Inc to join the consortium.

An Orix spokesperson said that the company was looking at participating in the consortium but had not finalised a decision. Chubu declined to comment.

A separate consortium led by state-backed Japan Investment Corp (JIC) is preparing a competing bid. JIC has been in talks with Bain Capital, as well as with MBK Partners, sources have said.

Kyodo news agency on Wednesday reported that JIP would miss the Nov. 7 deadline to secure bank loans for the deal.

($1 = 146.1300 yen)

(Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki and Ritsuko Shimizu; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)

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ZURICH (Reuters) – Credit Suisse Group lost 4 billion Swiss francs ($4.06 billion) in the third quarter, badly missing the average estimate of 413 million francs in a consensus compiled by the embattled Swiss bank which also unveiled its new strategy.

It booked a 3.7 billion franc impairment on deferred tax assets related to the strategy review.

Switzerland’s second-biggest bank saw a group net asset outflow of 12.9 billion Swiss francs in the quarter in “challenging” markets and as negative headlines swirled about the bank’s efforts to restructure after a series of scandals and risk-management failures.

Its CET1 capital ratio fell to 12.6% from 13.5% at the end of June. Analysts had expected 13.4%.

($1 = 0.9864 Swiss francs)

(Reporting by Michael Shields; Editing by Noele Illien)

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A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman Daga

The showman that he is, Tesla’s Elon Musk entered Twitter’s HQ on Wednesday carrying a sink, hours ahead of an end-of-week deadline to complete his $44 billion purchase of the social media giant.

But financial markets may do well to be wary of how far the spillover from a surprisingly small 50 basis points hike at the Bank of Canada sinks in.

The Fed remains the pace-setter for world rates, and the transmission from rates to the real economy is fuzzier in the United States than it is for Canada – or Australia for that matter. And markets remain priced for a 75 basis point Fed hike next week.

The European Central Bank is also almost certain to deliver its second supersized 75 basis-point rate hike and hint that the job is not yet over – though the size of subsequent moves is debatable.

The ECB joined the global rate hike party late. And with euro area inflation at nearly 10% versus its 2% target, there’s little let-up in sight for the ECB despite rising recession risks.

The ECB decision is due at 1215 GMT followed by a news conference at 1245 GMT.

Markets are nevertheless building up optimism that the Fed and other central banks may start slowing the pace of rate hikes.

Hopes and hopeful dip buyers in Hong Kong pushed Asia’s benchmark ex-Japan stocks gauge 1.3% higher and the mighty dollar is making a rare retreat.

The across-the-board gains in markets came despite U.S. stocks ending lower after a patch of disappointing earnings reports.

And in after-hours trading, shares of Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc plunged nearly 20% after the company forecast a weak holiday quarter and significantly more costs next year.

Thursday’s advance estimate of third-quarter U.S. GDP will further set the tone for expectations of future interest rate hikes by the Fed.

For European stock investors, the focus will be on Credit Suisse Group’s major strategic overhaul that is set to be unveiled on Thursday after the embattled Swiss bank’s string of losses and risk management failures.

Credit Suisse goes off piste

Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday:

(ECB rate decision and meeting https://graphics.reuters.com/CREDITSUISSEGP-REVAMP/lbpggrokepq/chart.png)

(ECB set for another supersized rate hike https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-MARKETS/myvmomnnovr/chart.png)

European economic data: Germany Oct CPI, Germany GfK Nov consumer sentiment

U.S. economic data: Sept durable goods, Advance GDP (Q3)

U.S. earnings: Apple, Amazon, Intel and Mastercard

European earnings: Credit Suisse, Unilever, STMicroelectronics and Shell

(Reporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)

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By Noah Browning

LONDON (Reuters) – The drop in Russian fossil fuel exports after its Ukraine invasion this year will transform the global energy landscape for decades and can help to hasten a green energy transition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.

The IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook acknowledges the economic hit from reduced supplies of Russian oil, natural gas and coal but is keeping an environmental best case scenario in which no investment in new fossil fuel projects is needed.

The IEA’s report said the global energy crisis is causing profound and long-lasting changes that could hasten the transition to a more sustainable and secure energy system.

“Energy markets and policies have changed as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, not just for the time being, but for decades to come,” said IEA executive director Fatih Birol.

“The energy world is shifting dramatically before our eyes. Government responses around the world promise to make this a historic and definitive turning point towards a cleaner, more affordable and more secure energy system”, Birol added.

Short-term gaps created by the reduction in fossil fuel supplies from Russia will need to be plugged from elsewhere.

The strongest candidates are projects with “short lead times” which rapidly bring oil and gas supplies to market without locking in dependency.

Global clean energy investment is set to rise to more than $2 trillion a year by 2030, up by half from current levels, while “international energy markets undergo a profound reorientation in the 2020s as countries adjust to the rupture of Russia-Europe (energy) flows, the IEA said.

The IEA last year stunned the energy industry by saying lower demand and a rise in low emissions fuels made new oil and gas fields beyond 2021 unnecessary in its most climate-friendly Net Zero Emissions scenario.

PEAKS

On Russia, the IEA said the country, which is the world’s largest fossil fuel exporter, will never regain the share of the global energy supply mix it had before its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia’s supply of internationally traded energy will fall to 13% by 2030 from about 20% in 2021, the IEA projects.

The IEA also said global demand for every type of fossil fuel is set for a peak or plateau for the first time in the agency’s history of modelling.

Global emissions of fossil fuels leading to climate change will peak by 2025, as coal use falls within the next several years, natural gas demand plateaus by 2030, and oil demand levels off in the middle of the next decade before falling.

“One of the effects of Russia’s actions is that the era of rapid growth in natural gas demand draws to a close,” the IEA said, pointing to a rise in global demand for gas of less than 5% between last year and 2030.

(Reporting By Noah Browning. Editing by Jane Merriman)

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HONG KONG (Reuters) – Hong Kong private home prices fell 2.1% in September from a month earlier to the lowest since January 2019, official data showed on Thursday, dragged down by rising interest rates and a pessimistic economic outlook.

The drop in home prices last month in one of the world’s most unaffordable housing markets followed a revised 1.9% fall in August.

The property price index was at 362.1 in September, down 9% from an all-time peak of 398.1 in September last year. Home prices in the financial hub have fallen 8.1% in the first nine months of this year.

Hong Kong banks raised their best lending rate by 12.5 basis points last month, the first rate hike in four years.

Rising mortgage costs and a bleak economic outlook have deepened pessimism among homeowners, while home prices for the full-year are expected to drop around 10%, the first fall since 2008.

Martin Wong, real estate consultancy Knight Frank Greater China head of research and consultancy, said he expects prices to continue to trend down in the short term, partly hurt by a stock market rout that pushed the main Hang Seng Index to its lowest since April 2009 this week.

Transaction volumes were set to fall to a nine-year low for the full year, he added.

(Reporting by Clare Jim; editing by Richard Pullin)

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By Luis Jaime Acosta

BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia’s Congress on Wednesday approved a law to allow President Gustavo Petro to seek peace deals with leftist rebels and criminal groups tied to drug trafficking via negotiations and processes of surrender.

Petro, the country’s first leftist president, has proposed a process of “total peace” to bring Colombia’s internal armed conflict of almost six decades to an end.

Fighting in the Andean country has left at least 450,000 dead and millions displaced.

The new law will enable Petro to begin peace talks with guerrilla organization the National Liberation Army (ELN) and dissident groups from the now-demobilized Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), who reject a 2016 peace deal.

Petro also has the green light to begin talks with criminal groups accused of drug trafficking such as the Clan del Golfo.

“This is the first step towards the deepening of democracy, solidarity, inclusion, but above all the start of definitively turning the page on the bloodbath in which we are still immersed, of the delay to which the armed conflict subjects us, which should lead us towards total peace, where life is dignified,” Interior Minister Alfonso Prada told reporters.

Colombia’s Senate and the House of Representatives will still have to agree on whether young people can avoid military service in exchange for performing activities that further peace.

The Senate voted to block the proposal, while the House of Representatives approved it.

The government and the ELN said this month they will reestablish peace talks in November, though they have yet to announce a start date or a location.

Petro in August proposed a multilateral ceasefire between armed groups and Colombia’s military while peace efforts move forward.

The new law will allow illegal armed groups to move to temporary locations where orders for their capture and potential extraditions will be suspended until talks are concluded.

It will also include a provision for a new peace fund to guarantee social investments in areas affected by violence and the presence of illegal armed groups.

Both leftist rebel groups and criminal gangs, which together count some 6,000 fighters, are involved in extortion, homicides, drug trafficking and illegal gold mining, according to security sources.

(Reporting by Luis Jaime Acosta; Writing by Oliver Griffin; Editing by Lincoln Feast)

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By Eduardo Baptista and Anand Katakam

BEIJING (Reuters) – Xi Jinping emerged from the 20th Communist Party Congress with a precedent-breaking third leadership term and a Politburo Standing Committee made up entirely of loyalists, cementing his place as China’s most powerful ruler since Mao Zedong.

Under Xi’s decade in power, China has undergone profound change, both domestically and within the global context.

Here are some of the ways that China has changed under Xi.

1. Perceptions of China in the West and U.S.-allied countries have worsened

U.S.-China relations have deteriorated sharply in recent years, a decline that accelerated under former U.S. President Donald Trump’s hawkish turn on Beijing. But western perceptions have also been worsened by concerns over human rights as well as China’s increasing aggression towards Taiwan.

Perceptions of China among the West and U.S.-allied countries https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/jnvwygwokvw/chart_eikon.jpg

2. Xi’s campaign against corruption

Upon taking office, Xi initiated a signature drive to root out corruption within the Communist Party, which has proven popular with the public and which numerous analysts say has also been a useful tool for eliminating political opponents.

Corruption cases under Xi https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/lgvdkmmgdpo/chart.png

3. The taming of once-unruly borderlands

The regions of Tibet, Xinjiang and Hong Kong, all far from Beijing, have long created headaches for China’s ruling Communist Party.

Xi launched unprecedented, sweeping security crackdowns that brought the borderlands under control.

In Xinjiang, that included the internment of an estimated one million minority Muslim Uyghurs in camps; in Hong Kong, Beijing responded to major anti-government protests in 2019 with a sweeping national security law.

Hong Kong Police Force budget https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/dwpkronyavm/chart.png

Imprisonments in Xinjiang https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/zdvxolwgjpx/chart.png

Public security budget for Tibet https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/akpezdrjkvr/chart.png

4. Turning up the heat on Taiwan

All Chinese leaders since Mao have stressed the importance of “reunifying” China with the self-governed island of Taiwan.

But tensions across the Taiwan strait have sharply increased under Xi, with the People’s Liberation Army increasing its activity around the island in recent years, from military drills to a spike in incursions into the island’s air defense identification zone.

The August visit to Taipei by U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi provoked Chinese military exercises on an unprecedented scale.

Chinese military aircraft entering Taiwan’s air defense identification zone https://graphics.reuters.com/TAIWAN-CHINA/movankeompa/chart.png

5. The state is increasingly taking the economic lead

Xi has ratcheted up state control and guidance of the economy, including a wide-ranging crackdown on the most free-wheeling sectors of the private sector, especially online platforms and for-profit education.

The clampdown on those sectors, as well as the impact of ongoing COVID-19 restrictions, has pushed up urban unemployment and pushed down consumer confidence.

Mood in China’s Private Sector https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/lgpdkmkelvo/Mood%20in%20China’s%20Private%20sector.png

6. Slowing growth, rising incomes

The era of yearly double-digit growth ended before Xi took office and the rate of growth has been declining, which was inevitable as the size of the economy grows.

Incomes have steadily risen under Xi.

A growing number of analysts warn that China’s investment-heavy, infrastructure-driven model is increasingly unsustainable, with further slowdown ahead.

China’s Annual GDP growth https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/akvezdwdgpr/qHV9B-china-s-annual-gdp-growth.png

China’s per capita GDP https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/jnvweqdmmvw/cTMIa-china-s-per-capita-gdp.png

7. The quashing of dissent, the expansion of censorship

Xi has cracked down on domestic critics and protests, eliminating space for dissent, while censorship inside China’s “Great Firewall” steadily intensifies.

Detention of individuals in secret jails https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/zjpqkxgdwpx/chart.png

China’s Internet freedom https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/lbvggroaevq/chart_eikon.jpg

8. The world’s largest military grows, modernises

The People’s Liberation Army, led by Xi, has been closing the gap with the United States, including on the high seas, with major implications for tensions surrounding Taiwan, as China ratchets up its capability to seize the island on what some U.S. officials warn is a shortening timeline.

China’s naval expansion in the past decade https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/gdvzqrrbepw/chart.png

9. China leads on green tech – and in pollution

While China struggles to shake its dependence on coal, it has become the global leader in the manufacture of electric vehicles and won plaudits for its pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Most visibly, air quality in China has steadily improved over the past decade.

China’s air quality https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/egpbkzxzavq/4tDrQ-china-s-air-quality(1).png

China’s coal production https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/lgvdwrzrlpo/SuI5F-china-s-coal-production.png

Share of coal in China’s total energy mix https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/lbvgnqeqgpq/IP2hY-share-of-coal-in-china-s-total-energy-mix.png

Electrical vehicles production https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/byvrjzwzjve/jZ4nB-electrical-vehicles-production(1).png

10. Extreme poverty eliminated, inequality persists

Xi describes elimination of extreme poverty in China as one of the key Communist Party achievements of the past decade.

Inequality, however, has proven a tougher challenge – especially the gap between urban and rural incomes – something Xi is seeking to tackle with his “common prosperity” policy.

China’s official Gini coefficient numbers show that despite a slight decline in recent years, it still has one of the highest income inequalities among large economies, along with the United States.

Income inequality in China https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/zjpqjqynmvx/chart_eikon.jpg

China’s rural poverty rate https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-CONGRESS/gdvzyzlxopw/eNDnl-china-s-rural-poverty-rate.png

(Graphics by Anand Katakam; Reporting by Eduardo Baptista, David Stanway, Martin Pollard, Kevin Yao, Samuel Shen, Marius Zaharia, Beijing and Shanghai newsrooms; Writing by Eduardo Baptista; Editing by Tony Munroe and Lincoln Feast)

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By Liangping Gao and Ryan Woo

BEIJING (Reuters) -Profits at China’s industrial firms fell at a faster clip in the January-September period as COVID-19 curbs and a property crisis continued to weigh heavily on factory activity, piling pressure on firms grappling with weak demand and high costs.

China’s strict “zero-COVID” policy of constantly monitoring, testing and isolating its citizens to prevent the spread of the coronavirus has battered the country’s economy and manufacturing sector. Signs of weakening global demand are also weighing more heavily on export-oriented manufacturers.

Profits fell 2.3% in the first nine months of 2022 from a year earlier, after a 2.1% drop in the January-August period, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Thursday.

The recovery in profits faces challenges as some industrial firms with high costs and declining profits have difficulties in production and operation, said Zhu Hong, senior NBS statistician, said in a statement.

“In the future, China will focus on the development of the real economy, efficiently coordinating COVID-19 prevention and control and economic development, in order to make a series of policy measures take effect.”

The bureau did not report standalone figures for September and August, but said in a separate statement that the decline in profits at industrial firms in September narrowed by 6.0 percentage points compared with the previous month.

The Shanghai Industrial share sub index is down nearly 20% so far this year.

After nearly contracting in spring, China’s third-quarter economic growth was faster than expected, helped by a raft of government measures.

September activity data showed strong industrial output, but prolonged property woes, slower exports and stubbornly weak retail sales are clouding the outlook for a more robust recovery in the longer term.

For January-September, profits at state-owned companies rose 3.8% on year while foreign, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan-invested enterprises and private firms both reported profit declines, down 9.3% and 8.1%, respectively.

However, for upstream companies, the mining sector reported high profits, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 76.0%, while profits in the manufacturing sector fell 13.2%.

Higher oil prices and rise in import costs from a weaker yuan have also added to companies’ woes in recent months.

Zhou Maohua, analyst at China Everbright Bank, said some manufacturing industries in the middle and downstream segments were facing pressure from the cost of energy and raw materials.

The authorities should maintain their policy measures aimed at stabilising supply and prices, Zhou added.

Despite better-than-expected third quarter GDP growth, analysts at Goldman Sachs cut their fourth quarter growth forecast to 3.5% on a quarter-on-quarter annualised basis from 5.0% previously.

“High-frequency data including emerging industries PMI (EPMI), new home sales, auto sales, transportation and long holiday tourism revenue pointed to a likely weak start in Q4,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.

China Resources Cement Holdings Ltd, among the country’s largest cement producers, reported last week that its nine-month turnover fell 22% to HK$24.2 billion ($3.1 billion).

Industrial profits data covers large firms with annual revenues above 20 million yuan ($2.79 million) from their main operations.

($1 = 7.1652 Chinese yuan)

($1 = 7.8493 Hong Kong dollars)

(Additional reporting by Ella Cao; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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SYRACUSE, NEW YORK – Oswego Hospital has agreed to pay $98,694.36 to resolve allegations that it knowingly violated the False Claims Act by: (1) improperly billing Medicare and Medicaid for outpatient mental healthcare services that were rendered by an unsupervised LMSW, and (2) improperly billing Medicaid for outpatient mental healthcare services rendered by another LMSW for which Oswego Hospital could not provide documentation to support those claims.

“The integrity and strength of our federal healthcare system depends on accurate and honest billing for services that are provided by qualified healthcare workers,” said United States Attorney Carla Freedman.  “We will continue to use the False Claims Act to hold healthcare providers accountable when their billing practice do not meet this standard.”

This case began in April of 2019, when a whistleblower filed a qui tam complaint investigation under seal in the United States District Court for the Northern District of New York. When a whistleblower, or “relator,” files a qui tam complaint, the False Claims Act requires the United States to investigate the allegations and elect whether to intervene and take over the action or to decline to intervene and allow the relator to go forward with the litigation on behalf of the United States. The relator is generally able to then share in any recovery. The relator in this case will receive $19,738.87 of the settlement proceeds.  The case is docketed with the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of New York under number 5:19-cv-0431 (GTS/ATB).

The investigation and settlement were the result of a coordinated effort among the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of New York, the New York State Attorney General’s Office, the Department of Health and Human Services Office of the Inspector General and the Defense Criminal Investigative Service on behalf of the Defense Health Agency.  The United States was represented by Assistant U.S. Attorney Carl G. Eurenius, and New York State was represented by Special Assistant Attorney General Ralph D. Tortora, III.

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(Refiles to remove extraneous word in paragraph 2.)

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico City’s mayor said on Wednesday she wants to boost the number of ‘digital nomads’ in the capital after signing an agreement with short-term rental platform Airbnb, despite fears the influx is pricing residents out of the rental market.

Asked about complaints over rising rents during a press conference, Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum said the local administration has not seen a direct link between rental prices and Airbnb’s presence.

Sheinbaum said most digital nomads – people working online remotely rather than in an office, often in another country – choose to stay in expensive neighborhoods, where the rent is already higher than other areas of the capital, such as Condesa, Roma and Polanco.

“We do not want rents to skyrocket in the face of this situation,” she said, adding that her administration will keep monitoring the situation.

Airbnb could not be immediately reached for comment.

Average daily rates for short-term rentals across Mexico City jumped 27% to $93 in August 2022 compared with the same month in 2019, data from market research company AirDNA shows.

Housing activists and some researchers have said the digital nomad influx stokes inflation and transforms neighborhoods into expatriate bubbles, in a city well-known for stark divides between rich and poor.

Airbnb is also opening its platforms for Mexican residents to create tourism experiences around their daily activities, according to Sheinbaum.

The partnership between Mexico City’s government and Airbnb is also backed by UNESCO, United Nations’ cultural agency.

(This story has been refiled to remove extraneous word in paragraph 2)

(Reporting by Valentine Hilaire; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)

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BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) – Chinese automaker Geely’s new energy vehicle subsidiary on Wednesday said its brand Farizon has raised over $300 million from a funding round led by Asian logistics firm GLP’s investment arm Hidden Hill Capital.

The new capital raise, which involves other investors such as Chinese logistics and chemical group Transfar and an investment firm backed by major Chinese investment bank CITIC Securities, came as Geely stepped up its new energy vehicle development.

Hangzhou-based Geely Holding Group, owner of Zhejiang Geely New Energy Commercial Vehicle Group which sells Farizon, is known globally with its investments in Volvo Cars and Mercedes-Benz. Geely Holding’s listed subsidiary Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd said it aims to increase the proportion of electric vehicles in its total sales to 50% in 2023.

Farizon will use much of the funding “for research & development and ecosystem development, in order to further consolidate its market-leading position in new energy commercial vehicles,” Zhejiang Geely New Energy Commercial Vehicle Group said in a statement.

Geely New Energy Commercial Vehicle did not disclose Farizon’s valuation in the statement.

The Industry Foundation of the Chinese city of Xiangtan, in the southern province of Hunan, Geely-backed GLy Capital and South Korea’s Mirae Asset also participated in the capital raise, according to the statement.

With GLP’s business presence across over 400 logistics facilities and warehouses in China, Hidden Hill Capital will help Farizon promote the rental and sales of urban logistics vehicles and marketing of refrigerated cars, and support Farizon in exploring new business models, the statement said.

Zeekr, a different electric vehicle brand backed by Geely Holding Group, last year raised $500 million in its first external funding from investors including Intel Capital, battery maker CATL and online entertainment firm Bilibili.

(This story has been corrected to reflect company’s new name to GLP in lead paragraph)

(Reporting by Roxanne Liu and Kane Wu; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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By Nancy Lapid

(Reuters) – U.S. doctors are warning that a surge in cases of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is coinciding with an increase in COVID transmission and an earlier-than-normal flu season, raising the specter of a “tripledemic” of respiratory illness this winter.

In particular, RSV infections among young children are reportedly filling some U.S. hospitals to capacity.

“We are already seeing patients testing positive for more than one virus,” said pediatrician Dr. Ira Wardono of Providence Cedars-Sinai Tarzana Medical Center in Tarzana, California, in a statement.

WHO IS AT RISK?

Infants are most at risk from RSV because they often cannot cough up the secretions caused by the virus and may need airway suctioning or intravenous fluids. Some may need extra oxygen. Older children and most adults typically experience mild, cold-like symptoms.

On average, RSV leads to 58,000 hospitalizations among children under age 5 and 177,000 hospitalizations among adults age 65 and older each year, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

RSV deaths are rare in U.S. children, but 14,000 adults die annually from the virus, with older or immunocompromised individuals at greatest risk, the CDC said.

WHAT CAN PREVENT RSV?

Infection with RSV can be prevented in the same way one would ward off any virus: staying away from people who are sick, ensuring the best possible ventilation when you are indoors, wearing a high quality mask, and keeping your hands as clean as possible, said Dr. Jay Varma, Chief Medical Adviser at Kroll.com and Director of the Weill Cornell Center for Pandemic Prevention and Response.

High-risk infants can receive preventive treatment with monthly doses of Synagis (palivizumab) from Swedish drugmaker Orphan Biovitrum. AstraZeneca Plc and Sanofi SA are hoping for U.S. and European approval of Beyfortus (nirsevimab) for preventing RSV infections in newborns and infants.

There is no vaccine against RSV, although Pfizer Inc is developing RSVpreF for adults. In the meantime, it is important “for everyone to get up to date on their COVID and flu vaccines,” Varma said.

WHAT IS CAUSING THIS SURGE?

Part of the increase in RSV cases is due to the relaxation of COVID-precautions, such as masking and social distancing, which reduced rates of both RSV and flu during the pandemic, Varma said.

RSV rates were unusually low in the fall/winter of 2020-2021 but increased dramatically starting in Spring 2021 and have spiked since late August.

The CDC says it cannot yet predict when the previous seasonal patterns will return.

(Reporting by Nancy Lapid; Editing by Michele Gershberg and Richard Pullin)

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By Paul Lienert

DETROIT (Reuters) – The road map to fully self-driving vehicles is being rewritten once again, this time by Ford Motor Co and Volkswagen AG.

When the two automakers joined forces in July 2019 to share control of self-driving startup Argo AI, it shook up the landscape among other key players.

Wednesday’s announcement that Pittsburgh-based Argo is being shuttered and some of its employees moving to Ford and VW underscores the growing realization that automated vehicles may be even further away from mass deployment than industry executives predicted back in 2019.

“It’s become very clear that profitable, fully autonomous vehicles at scale are still a long way off,” Ford CFO John Lawler said on Wednesday.

As Ford, General Motors Co and other companies began to realize they would need to step up investment over a longer period of time, “it was never clear what the financial returns were going to be” on automated vehicles, Evangelos Simoudis, an investor, author and corporate adviser, told Reuters on Wednesday.

Regarding Ford and Volkswagen’s exit from Argo AI, Simoudis said, “I expect we will see more of those decisions.”

As the AV deployment timeline stretches out even further – after an estimated $100 billion cumulative investment by global automakers and suppliers – once-inflated valuations of self-driving companies have come crashing to earth.

VW’s initial investment in Argo in 2019 was valued at $2.6 billion, including $1 billion in cash and the $1.6 billion value of VW’s European self-driving unit, which was absorbed into Argo. VW also bought Argo shares from Ford for $500 million.

Ford previously injected $1 billion into Argo when it bought control of the company in 2017. On Wednesday, it wrote down $2.7 billion in impairment charges.

Before it acquired the stake in Argo, VW flirted with at least two other U.S.-based self-driving startups: Alphabet Inc’s Waymo and Aurora Innovation.

VW reportedly considered a $13.7 billion investment in 2018 in Waymo for a 10% stake that would have valued Waymo at $137 billion.

The value of Waymo just before then was estimated by Wall Street at $175 billion to $250 billion. Its most recent valuation by PitchBook of $30.75 billion dates to May 2020.

The market cap of Aurora, which went public nearly a year ago, has sunk to $2.5 billion, from a 52-week high of more than $20 billion.

When VW announced its initial investment in Argo in July 2019, it walked away from a development deal with Aurora, when the Silicon Valley firm was valued at $2.5 billion and backed by Hyundai Motor and Amazon.com Inc.

Hyundai eventually formed a self-driving joint venture called Motional with Aptiv. Amazon bought self-driving startup Zoox.

Argo’s most recent valuation was $7.25 billion, but that was more than two years ago, according to investor website PitchBook. The company laid off 150 employees in July, when it said it was adjusting its business plan.

The value of its nearest rival, the General Motors majority-owned Cruise, was estimated by PitchBook at $30 billion in January 2021, but its current value likely has dropped since key investor SoftBank sold its stake back to GM earlier this year. GM meanwhile is losing $2 billion a year on Cruise.

Mobileye Global went public this week, but at a third of the $50 billion valuation it was targeting earlier in its IPO.

The company, which was acquired by Intel Corp in 2017 for $15.3 billion, saw its market cap recover to more than $21 billion on Wednesday, reflecting the company’s financial strength and reputation, particularly in assisted driving systems. Intel still holds a majority stake.

(Reporting by Paul Lienert in Detroit; Editing by Matthew Lewis)

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