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Brazil vote ‘reinforces’ trust in democratic institutions – U.S. State Dept

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The election in Brazil that saw leftist Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva elected for a third term as president reinforce trust in the country’s democratic institutions, U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said on Monday.

Price said figures from across Brazil’s political spectrum had expressed respect for the outcome of Sunday’s vote, when asked whether he was concerned that incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro had not commented on the results.

“The vote reinforces our trust in the strength of Brazil’s democratic institutions, which perform their constitutional roles in a free and fair election conducted with transparency,” Price said.

“A hallmark of every democracy is acceptance of the will of the people as expressed through elections, followed by a peaceful transfer of power – that’s what the world will expect and what we anticipate they will see in the coming weeks,” he added.

(Reporting by Humeyra Pamuk and Simon Lewis)

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Biden congratulates Brazil’s Lula on election victory

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden congratulated Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on his election victory during a call on Monday, the White House said in a statement.

Biden and Lula discussed their countries’ strong relationship and committed to continue working as partners to address common challenges, the White House said.

(Reporting by Chris Gallagher)

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U.S. throws out Libor-rigging charges against Hayes

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) – A New York judge has dismissed criminal charges against Tom Hayes, the British trader who became the face of the global Libor interest rate scandal.

The former UBS and Citigroup trader served more than five years in prison in Britain for conspiring to rig Libor (London interbank offered rate) – a benchmark used to set rates on trillions of dollars in loans, mortgages and derivatives.

The U.S. decision comes after a separate U.S. ruling in August to throw out convictions for rigging Libor against two former Deutsche Bank traders.

Libor, once dubbed the world’s most important number, was discredited after the 2008 financial crisis when authorities in the United States and Britain found traders had manipulated it to make a profit.

Hayes was released from prison in Britain in January 2021 after serving half an 11-year sentence.

Hayes’ legal team is considering further legal options to clear his name, a representative for Hayes said in a statement.

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“The U.S. Department of Justice has seen fit to dismiss charges based on the same facts, evidence and case in law that the UK courts used to justify my 11-year prison sentence,” Hayes said.

“That alone should be grounds enough for these cases to be referred back to the Court of Appeal in the UK, and if need be to the Supreme Court, which is yet to hear the case.”

(This story has been corrected to fix a spelling error in the headline.)

(Reporting by Iain Withers, additional reporting by Lawrence White; editing by Jason Neely)

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Column-U.S. bond ‘term premium’ is back, casting shadow over long end: McGeever

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Jamie McGeever

ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – In the worst year for U.S. Treasuries ever, it is the ultra-long end that investors should be most worried about.

Yields across the curve are at multi-year peaks as the Federal Reserve has yanked up interest rates to battle 40-year high inflation, while duration risk – a bond’s increased sensitivity to price changes over longer time frames – is also weighing heavily on the long end.

Crucially though, ‘term premium’ is back. This is the compensation investors demand for taking on interest rate risk over a bond’s lifetime, or put another way, for buying a longer-dated bond rather than rolling over shorter-term debt.

After decades of decline, even into negative territory, term premium is rising again. A secular shift may be underway.

There’s no fixed formula for calculating it, so estimates can vary significantly. But three different Fed models all tell the same story: whether it’s due to fears over inflation, liquidity, or supply and demand risks, investors want to be paid a higher rate of interest for lending to Uncle Sam long term.

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GRAPHIC: U.S. 10-year Treasury term premium https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zjpqjqayrvx/TermPremium3.jpg

GRAPHIC: U.S. forward term premium 10 years hence https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/klpygemnypg/TermPremium1.jpg

GRAPHIC: U.S. 10-year term premium (zero coupon bond) https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dwvkdgjzwpm/TermPremium2.jpg

“We are in a tectonic phase of monetary policy and you are getting asset dislocations across the board, including long bonds,” said Solomon Tadesse, head of North American Quant Strategies at Societe Generale.

Dysfunction at the long end can quickly spread to the rest of the bond complex and financial markets more broadly – witness the blow up in 30-year gilts a few weeks ago that froze the UK mortgage market, forced the Bank of England to intervene, and slammed sterling to a record low against the dollar.

Thirty-year Treasuries last week snapped a long downturn. But against a backdrop of high uncertainty and volatility, it is this illiquid and price-sensitive part of the curve where the canary in the Treasury market coal mine will be seen.

“The concern is, if this elevated uncertainty persists, it could potentially trigger forced sellers, whose impact on the market could be quite pronounced. Things could snowball from there,” said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America.

“The market is fragile, and by definition, when things are fragile, they can break easily.”

‘MAKES NO SENSE’

For most of the last 50 years the term premium has been positive, and since the early 1980s it has fallen, following the general downward path of interest rates. The trillions of dollars worth of bonds purchased by the Fed in response to the 2007-2009 financial crisis then pushed the term premium into negative territory.

But the Fed is now raising rates aggressively and has begun trimming its asset holdings. There is concern about where the marginal demand for long bonds will come from – many foreign central banks are selling Treasuries for currency market intervention purposes, and the U.S. central bank is stepping back too.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen last week insisted that the bond market is functioning smoothly, but said steps are being taken to improve its resilience in an environment of declining liquidity and rising global volatility.

GRAPHIC: U.S. Treasury market ‘MOVE’ volatility index https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdvzqrkbjpw/MOVEINDEX.jpg

Yellen didn’t mention any particular part of the curve but the long end is most vulnerable, partly because of low liquidity in ‘off-the-run’ bonds compared with ‘on-the-run’ paper.

On-the-run Treasuries are the newest issue of a particular maturity and are more heavily traded. A 30-year bond bought and held to maturity by a pension fund, for example, quickly becomes ‘off the run,’ so liquidity risk ends up lifting the term premium.

Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities, reckons liquidity in off-the-run Treasuries may be around 30% lighter than on-the-run bonds.

In the week through Oct. 21 the 30-year bond’s price fell for an eighth straight week, the longest selling streak since 2004.

In yield terms, the 33-basis-point rise in that week was the biggest since March 2020 and the fourth-largest since the Great Financial Crisis. Like other parts of the curve, the 30-year yield is at its highest in more than a decade.

If the Fed is successful in driving down inflation or the economy goes into recession, more investors will flock to 30-year bonds. But right now they are aren’t getting paid enough to lock into long-dated bonds, especially the 30-year space.

“I wouldn’t go beyond three years. You get 4.10% for five years. Maybe. Or 4.10% for 30 years? It makes no sense,” Brenner at NatAlliance Securities said.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Related columns:

– Fed may be alert to favoured yield curve alarm (Oct. 28)

– Markets map out the end of the line (Oct. 19)

– Hedge funds still betting on that elusive Fed pivot (Oct. 17)

(By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Paul Simao)

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U.S. resumes ‘on-site’ inspections to keep track of weapons in Ukraine

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Idrees Ali

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The United States has restarted on-site inspections in Ukraine to help keep track of the billions of dollars of weapons being provided to Kyiv, a senior U.S. official said on Monday.

Moving large amounts of weaponry into the largest conflict in Europe since World War Two carries with it risks that some could fall into the wrong hands.

But U.S. officials have said that it has been a risk worth taking in providing about $18 billion in weapons since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February.

A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Ukrainian government had committed to safeguarding and accounting for the weapons and there was no credible evidence they were being diverted.

But, the official said, the United States had recently restarted “on-site” inspections to check weapons stocks in Ukraine “whenever and wherever the security conditions allow.”

On-site inspections are a routine part of agreements countries sign with the United States when they are provided certain weapons.

“We’ll continue to work with our colleagues across the U.S. government and with our international partners to ensure accountability of security assistance now and in the future,” the official told reporters.

The inspections are being carried out by the defense attache and office of defense cooperations at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv, which re-opened in May.

The official declined to say how many on-site visits had been carried out so far, but acknowledged that it was not always easy to keep track of weapons in an area with an active conflict.

The United States cannot visit some places, like those close to the frontline, and is providing training to Ukrainian forces so they can provide better data, the official added.

Smaller and Highly portable missiles such as Stinger surface-to-air missiles — which are a type of MANPAD — can help win wars, but in the past they have also been lost, sold, or wound up in the arsenals of extremist groups.

Last week, the State Department laid out a series of steps it would take in the coming years to counter the diversion of weapons in eastern Europe.

(Reporting by Idrees Ali)

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Oil falls on U.S. output gains, Chinese demand doubts

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Arathy Somasekhar

HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices fell on Monday on expectations that U.S. production could rise and as weaker economic data out of China and the country’s widening COVID-19 curbs weighed on demand.

Global benchmark Brent crude futures dropped 94 cents, or 0.98%, to $94.83 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.37 to $86.53 a barrel, a 1.6% loss.

Both benchmarks notched their first monthly gains since May.

Oil output in the United States climbed to nearly 12 million barrels per day in August, the highest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, monthly government data showed. [L1N31W1JU]

U.S. President Joe Biden was set to call on oil and gas companies to invest some of their record profits in lowering costs for American families, a White House official said.

Biden will call on Congress to consider requiring oil companies to pay tax penalties and face other restrictions, the official said. The president has previously pushed oil companies to raise production rather than use profits for share buybacks and dividends.

The administration has also relied on releasing supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) to ease a supply crunch. About 1.9 million barrels were released from the SPR last week as part of the government’s plan to release 180 million barrels.

Meanwhile, factory activity in China, the world’s largest crude importer, fell unexpectedly in October, an official survey showed on Monday, weighed down by softening global demand and strict COVID-19 restrictions that hit production.

“The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data contracting adds to the post-China congress party blues for oil markets. It is not difficult to draw a straight line from weaker PMIs to China’s COVID-zero policy,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner of SPI Asset Management.

“So long as COVID-zero remains entrenched, it will continue to thwart oil bulls.”

Chinese cities are stepping up zero-COVID curbs as outbreaks widen, dampening hopes of a rebound in demand.

Strict COVID-19 curbs in China have hit economic and business activity, curtailing oil demand. China’s crude oil imports for the first three quarters of the year fell 4.3% year on year for the first annual decline for the period since at least 2014.

Meanwhile, the euro zone is likely to enter recession, with its October business activity contracting at the fastest in nearly two years, a S&P Global survey said.

European Central Bank policymakers are standing behind plans to keep raising interest rates, even if it pushes the bloc into recession and stirs political resentment.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday raised its forecast for medium and long-term oil demand and said $12.1 trillion of investment is needed to meet this demand despite the energy transition.

(Reporting by Noah BrowningAdditional reporting by Florence Tan and Emily ChowEditing by David Goodman, Barbara Lewis and David Gregorio)

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China Southern cancels planned return of Boeing 737 MAX flights -website

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

(Reuters) – China Southern Airlines Co Ltd has cancelled plans for two Boeing Co 737 MAX flights on Sunday that would have represented the model’s return to passenger flying in China after more than three years, according to the airline’s website.

The 737 MAX was grounded in March 2019 following fatal crashes in Indonesia and Ethiopia but has returned to service around the world with the exception of China and Russia after modifications to the aircraft and pilot training.

China Southern had scheduled flights from its Guangzhou hub to Zhengzhou and Wuhan, Reuters reported on Thursday.

The airline’s website and flight tracking website FlightRadar24 showed the flights had been cancelled. China Southern did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

On Wednesday, Boeing said it had another 138 planes manufactured for Chinese carriers that were in the United States waiting to be delivered, though it had begun remarketing the jets to other carriers given there were no concrete signs that Chinese airlines would accept the planes in the near term.

Earlier this month, a 737 MAX flight by MIAT Mongolian Airlines landed in Guangzhou, marking the first commercial flight by the model in China since 2019.

(Reporting by Jamie Freed in Sydney; Editing by Chris Reese)

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Fearing COVID, workers flee from Foxconn’s vast Chinese iPhone plant

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Ryan Woo

BEIJING (Reuters) – After enduring days of lock-in at Foxconn’s vast facility in central China with 200,000 other workers, Yuan finally climbed the fences on Saturday night and escaped the complex, joining others fleeing what they feared was a widening COVID outbreak.

He walked through the night, keeping to a northerly route, towards his hometown of Hebi, every step taking him farther away from iPhone maker Foxconn’s Zhengzhou plant, the Taiwan-based group’s largest in mainland China.

“There were so many people on the road,” Yuan told Reuters on Monday, declining to give his full name because of the matter’s sensitivity.

Since mid-October, Foxconn has been wrestling with a COVID-19 outbreak at its facility in Zhengzhou, the capital of Henan province in central China. Workers were locked in to stop the spread of the coronavirus to the outside word. Foxconn has repeatedly refrained from disclosing the case load.

“We were shut in on Oct. 14, and we had to do endless PCR tests, and after about 10 days, we had to wear N95 masks, and were given traditional Chinese medicine,” said Yuan.

Whenever a positive or suspected case was found at a production line, there would be a public broadcast, but work would continue, he told Reuters.

“People would be called away in the middle of work, and if they don’t show up the next day, that would mean they had been taken away,” Yuan said.

Around 20,000 workers had been put in quarantine on-site, Yuan had heard, but he could not be sure how many were infected, as management did not publicise that information.

China typically isolates vast numbers of people considered close or even potential contacts of an infected person.

The world’s second-largest economy continues to wage war on COVID with disruptive lockdowns, mass testing and quarantines while many other countries have chosen to live with the disease.

For companies with massive manufacturing campuses like Foxconn, that has meant keeping thousands of workers on-site in so-called “closed-loop” systems to keep their production lines running.

“Food for tens of thousands was merely left outside (of the quarantine buildings at the plant),” said a worker surnamed Li, 21.

Li, who is still at the plant, said she was planning to quit.

In a statement on Monday, Apple supplier Foxconn said that reports that 20,000 staff had been diagnosed with COVID were false.

On Sunday afternoon, the company told Reuters in an emailed statement that workers were allowed to leave if they chose to.

Foxconn did not immediately respond to a Reuters request on Monday for further comment.

‘NEVER GO BACK’

Disruptions from China’s zero-COVID policies to commerce and industry have widened in October as cases escalated. Apart from the Foxconn lockdown, the Shanghai Disney Resort was shut from Monday to comply with counter-epidemic requirements, with visitors still inside.

For Yuan, matters came to a head when he heard that a housing complex for workers near his plant had been cordoned off by security on Friday, and that the plant itself was to go under a curfew the next day.

In a panic, Yuan decided to leave the next day, joining streams of other escaping workers. It was not immediately clear if a curfew was eventually imposed.

By Sunday morning, Yuan had hiked to the banks of the Yellow River, the northern boundary of Zhengzhou, where he was stopped 50 km (30 miles) short of Hebi by authorities from the city of Xinxiang on the other side.

“I’ll never go back to Foxconn,” said Yuan, who has since been transported to Hebi and put under quarantine.

“Zhengzhou has put a chill in my heart.”

(Reporting by Ryan Woo; Additional reporting by Beijing newsroom and Ziyi Tang; Editing by Christian Schmollinger)

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Democratic U.S. senator wants probe into Saudi firm’s stake in Twitter

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By David Shepardson

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Democratic U.S. Senator Chris Murphy said on Monday he wants a U.S. national security review of a Saudi Arabian conglomerate’s stake in Twitter Inc after Elon Musk’s takeover of the social media company.

Murphy said he was asking the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) — which reviews acquisitions of U.S. businesses by foreign buyers — “to conduct an investigation into the national security implications of Saudi Arabia’s purchase of Twitter.”

Most foreigners seeking to take even noncontrolling stakes in U.S. companies must seek approval from CFIUS, a powerful Treasury-led committee that reviews transactions for national security concerns and has the power to block them.

On Friday, Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding Company and the private office of Prince Alwaleed bin Talal said they will continue their ownership of Twitter shares valued at $1.89 billion, according to a statement tweeted by Prince Alwaleed.

“The deal is in line with the long-term investment strategy which Kingdom Holding Company is known for,” the statement said.

Alwaleed’s Kingdom Holding is 16.9% owned by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, which is chaired by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

“We should be concerned that the Saudis, who have a clear interest in repressing political speech and impacting U.S. politics, are now the second-largest owner of a major social media platform,” Murphy wrote on Twitter “There is a clear national security issue at stake and CFIUS should do a review.”

The Saudi embassy in Washington did not immediately comment. Twitter did not immediately respond to a request for comment. A spokesman for U.S. Treasury, which leads CFIUS, declined to comment.

Musk last week closed the $44 billion deal announced in April to take Twitter private. Banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp committed to provide $13 billion in debt financing.

(Reporting by David Shepardson in WashingtonEditing by Franklin Paul and Matthew Lewis)

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Senate Republicans want the SEC to explain why staff are quitting

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Nell Mackenzie

(Reuters) – Senate Republicans want the SEC to explain why staff are leaving the nation’s corporate watchdog at the highest rate in 10 years amid a flurry of proposed rules, according to a letter seen by Reuters on Sunday.

The private letter dated Oct. 27 from Senate Republicans to the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, adds to mounting criticism that the U.S. regulator lacks the internal firepower it needs to accomplish its ambitious rulemaking plans.

Gensler, a veteran Wall Street regulator who was chosen by President Joe Biden, a Democrat, has already clashed with Republicans over the watchdog’s proposals on corporate climate-related disclosures. 

Gensler has previously contended that his new rules are critical to ensuring the U.S. capital markets remain the global “gold standard.”

Republicans have claimed he has overstepped his authority and adopted a hostile stance toward the financial industry.

The SEC has introduced 26 new rule proposals in 2022, more than double the number in 2021 and the highest total of any year in the last five years, the Republican letter says.

The letter, signed by six of the 12 Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee, references a public Oct. 13 report posted on the SEC’s website from the Office of the Inspector General, the SEC’s own internal watchdog, detailing staff attrition and reports of discontent.

Republicans want Gensler to explain how he will address the concerns in the report and also to allow more time for industry feedback on the new rules.

The SEC was not immediately available for comment.

Employees interviewed for the internal watchdog report said they received little feedback on rules they had written, according to the report.

Staff feared an increased risk of litigation because of shortened industry comment periods, the report said.

The SEC is losing employees at its highest pace in 10 years, said the Inspector General’s report. The agency expected attrition in senior officer positions to be 20.8% this fiscal year and 8.4% for attorney positions, it said.

The letter concludes that “efforts to ram through hurried rulemaking without proper analysis, deliberation or consideration of downstream negative impacts is nothing short of regulatory malpractice.”

Senate Republicans Thom Tillis from North Carolina, Mike Crapo from Idaho, Tim Scott from South Carolina, Michael Rounds from South Dakota, Bill Hagerty from Tennessee and Steve Daines from Montana signed the letter.

(Reporting by Nell Mackenzie; Additional reporting by Huw Jones; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

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Marketmind: Sky HIBOR

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever

Investors’ focus on the growing stress in Asian financial markets has tended to center gravitate towards the yuan and the yen. They should probably add HIBOR to their worries.

Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rates – the rates at which banks in Hong Kong lend to each other – are soaring, especially at the short end of the curve. Indeed, the ultra short end is inverted.

Overnight HIBOR jumped by 58 basis points on Monday through 3.00%, the highest in almost three years. This followed a 45 bps spike on Friday.

GRAPHIC: Overnight HIBOR https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lgvdkmajopo/HIBOR.png

What’s going on?

At face value it suggests liquidity is drying up, pushing borrowing costs sharply higher. Rising credit risk could be related to Hong Kong banks’ exposure to the crisis-hit Chinese property sector.

It could also be related to Hong Kong’s efforts to defend its pegged currency and prevent it from breaching the weaker end of its 7.75 to 7.85 band against the U.S. dollar. This has eroded cash balances in the local banking system to their lowest in nearly three years.

It could also be related to the mounting downward pressure on the Chinese yuan. Or month-end issues – HIBOR spiked sharply higher in late June and September too.

Whatever the cause, it is another regional red flag on top of persistent FX weakness, central bank intervention, and the steep decline in Hong Kong and Chinese stocks, especially tech.

On the yen, Japan’s Ministry of Finance confirmed that it spent $43 billion on FX market intervention over two days in October, which follows $20 billion spent on Sept. 22 trying to contain the currency’s slide.

In sum: $63 billion spent, in three days, with the respective dollar/yen trigger points apparently around 146.00, 152.00, and 149.50. With dollar/yen currently around 148.65, it is an open question whether authorities’ action has been a success.

The big regional diary event on Tuesday will be the RBA’s rate decision. Investors are forecasting a quarter-point hike.

Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:

Regional PMIs (October)

Australia rate decision (25 bps hike expected)

U.S. ISM (October)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever in Orlando, Fla.; Editing by Josie Kao)

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Trump asks U.S. Supreme Court to block lawmakers from obtaining tax returns

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Andrew Chung

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Former President Donald Trump on Monday asked the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene in his fight to prevent a U.S. House of Representatives committee from gaining access to his tax returns for reasons he claims are politically motivated.

Trump filed an emergency request to put on hold a lower court ruling against the Republican former president that upheld the Democratic-led House Ways and Means Committee’s request for the tax materials as a justified part of its legislative work while his attorneys prepare an appeal.

“If allowed to stand, it will undermine the separation of powers and render the office of the Presidency vulnerable to invasive information demands from political opponents in the legislative branch,” Trump’s lawyers wrote, referring to the division of authority among the three branches of the U.S. government.

The fight has lingered since 2019 when the committee sued Trump to force disclosure of the tax returns. Trump was the first president in four decades years not to release his tax returns as he aimed to keep secret the details of his wealth and the activities of his company, the Trump Organization.

The committee in its request invoked a federal law that empowers the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee to request any person’s tax returns from the IRS.

House Democrats have said they need Trump’s tax returns to see if the IRS is properly auditing presidential returns and to assess whether new legislation is needed. Trump’s lawyers have called that explanation “pretextual” and “disingenuous,” saying the real aim is to unearth politically damaging information about Trump, who is considering another run for the presidency in 2024.

U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden, a Trump appointee, sided with Congress in December 2021 and threw out the case, finding that the committee holds broad authority over a former president’s tax returns.

In August, the District of Columbia U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals also ruled against Trump, concluding that “every president takes office knowing that he will be subject to the same laws as all other citizens upon leaving office.” The appeals court refused a rehearing on Oct. 27.

(Reporting by Andrew Chung in Washington and Nate Raymond in Boston; Editing by Will Dunham)

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U.S. Justice Dept backs voter intimidation lawsuit in Arizona

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Gram Slattery

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Department of Justice expressed support on Monday for a lawsuit filed by voting rights organizations in Arizona, which alleges that groups monitoring ballot drop boxes in the state are engaging in illegal voter intimidation.

The Justice Department said that, while poll watching has a legitimate role in the voting process, private so-called “ballot security forces” pose a significant risk of violating federal law. Among the activities that can be considered voter intimidation, it said, are photographing and video-recording voters, an activity that multiple conservative groups in Arizona have engaged in.

The move comes after U.S. Judge Michael Liburdi on Friday rejected a request for a temporary restraining order aimed at voter monitoring group Clean Elections USA, writing that he could not “craft an injunction without violating the defendants’ rights under the First Amendment” of the U.S. Constitution, which protects the right to free speech and assembly.

The plaintiffs, which include the League of Women Voters of Arizona and the Arizona Alliance for Retired Americans, immediately appealed.

The Justice Department, in its “statement of interest,” said it believed it would be possible to issue a narrowly tailored injunction without violating First Amendment guarantees.

Arizona officials earlier in the month asked the Justice Department to investigate a case of possible voter intimidation after a group of people followed and filmed a voter in Maricopa County, who was dropping off a ballot for the midterm elections.

Since then, Arizona officials have said they have observed several more instances of voter intimidation. Officials in at least three additional states – North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada – have reported similar incidents.

Reuters reported earlier in October that many incidents of alleged voter intimidation are being carried out by an expanding groups of grassroots poll observers, many of whom have been recruited by prominent Republican Party figures and activists, a trend that has worried elections experts and officials.

(Reporting by Gram Slattery; Editing by Scott Malone and Aurora Ellis)

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Somalia car bombings death toll rises to 120- health minister

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

NAIROBI (Reuters) – The number of people killed by two car bombs that exploded outside the education ministry in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu has risen to at least 120 people, the health minister said on Monday.

The al Qaeda-linked Islamist group al Shabaab claimed responsibility for Saturday’s blasts, Somalia’s deadliest since a truck bomb killed more than 500 people at the same location five years ago.

The first of the explosions hit the education ministry at around 2 p.m. on Saturday. The second hit minutes later as ambulances arrived and people gathered to help the victims.

Health minister Ali Haji Aden said the death toll stood at 120, while a further 150 people were being treated in hospital.

Al Shabaab, which is seeking to topple the government and establish its own rule based on an extreme interpretation of Islamic law, frequently stages attacks in Mogadishu and elsewhere.

The Islamist group has been under pressure since August when President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud began an offensive, supported by the United States and allied local militias, against them, and sought to dismantle their financial network.

Analysts say the offensive is the most serious threat al Shabaab has faced in years.

(Reporting by Abdi Sheikh; Writing by Hereward Holland, Editing by Angus MacSwan)

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Italy delays EU-required justice reform, scraps vaccine mandate for medics

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Angelo Amante and Emilio Parodi

ROME (Reuters) – Italy’s new government on Monday delayed the application of a justice reform required to obtain European post-pandemic funds and scrapped a COVID-19 vaccine mandate for health workers.

Both moves mark discontinuity from the previous administration of Mario Draghi, who imposed tough COVID curbs and pushed through the contested justice reform aimed at speeding up Italy’s slow judicial proceedings.

Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s cabinet ruled that doctors and nurses would no longer have to be vaccinated against the disease and said those suspended from work until Dec. 31 because they had refused the shot would be immediately reinstated.

Speaking at a news conference after cabinet approved the measures, Meloni accused her predecessors, Draghi and Giuseppe Conte, of taking an “ideological” approach to COVID and said she would do things differently.

“The previous governments took a host of measures that had no scientific evidence,” said Meloni, who was sworn in this month at the head of a right-wing coalition.

Last week the economy ministry also recommended that fines of 100 euros for people over the age of 50 who refused to get vaccinated – another measure introduced by Draghi – should be halted.

“At its first cabinet meeting the Meloni government has rewarded anti-vaxxers. It would have been hard to start in a worse way,” said Enrico Letta, head of the centre-left Democratic Party.

JUSTICE SYSTEM PARALYSIS

On the justice front, Meloni said Draghi’s reform, which was due to take effect from Nov. 2, contained numerous measures to reorganise legal proceedings but it had not set up the resources and instruments to put them into practice.

“Our courts and prosecutors’ offices are not ready and this risks paralysing our judicial system,” she said, adding that the reform would in any case be applied before the end of the year, meeting the deadline set by the European Commission.

The Commission made part of its 200 billion euros ($198 billion) of recovery funds for Italy conditional on cutting the length of trials by 25% over five years in criminal cases and by 40% in civil ones.

The decision to delay the reform, which Meloni said was taken at the request of all Italy’s prosecutors’ offices, sparked criticism from the opposition, lawyers, and experts.

Gian Luigi Gatta, a criminal law professor who advised former Justice Minister Marta Cartabia, told Reuters that if the decree leaves room for parliament to change Draghi’s reform as agreed with the EU this could jeopardise the flow of funds.

Italy’s lawyer lobby said in a statement there was no reason to justify the postponement of the reform and announced it would organise protests against the government.

Italy’s union of judges and prosecutors, however, welcomed the postponement, saying in a statement that it was necessary to allow time to reorganise court procedures.

($1 = 1.0088 euros)

(Writing by Gavin Jones; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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Russia says movement of ships in Black Sea corridor is ‘unacceptable’

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

(Reuters) – Russia said on Monday it was “unacceptable” for shipping to pass through a Black Sea security corridor after it suspended its participation in a Turkish- and U.N.-brokered deal that had allowed Ukraine to resume grain exports.

“The movement of ships along the security corridor is unacceptable, since the Ukrainian leadership and the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine use it to conduct military operations against the Russian Federation,” the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.

“Under the current conditions, there can be no question of guaranteeing the security of any object in the indicated direction until the Ukrainian side accepts additional obligations not to use this route for military purposes.”

It emphasised, however, that Russia was not withdrawing from the deal but only suspending it, in a move that Moscow announced on Saturday after what it said was a Ukrainian drone attack on its Black Sea fleet.

The ministry did not say what Russia would do if ships continued to sail the route. On Monday a record volume of 354,500 tonnes of agricultural products left Ukrainian ports under the grain deal, despite Moscow’s weekend announcement, a spokesperson for Odesa’s military administration said.

The Kremlin said earlier on Monday that without Russian security commitments, the grain deal was “hardly feasible, and it takes on a different character – much more risky, dangerous and unguaranteed”.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has accused Moscow of “blackmailing the world with hunger” by pulling out of the agreement.

(Reporting by Mark Trevelyan; Editing by Sandra Maler)

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OPEC raises long-term oil demand view, calls for investment

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Alex Lawler

ABU DHABI (Reuters) – OPEC raised its forecasts for world oil demand in the medium-and longer-term in an annual outlook released on Monday and said $12.1 trillion of investment is needed to meet this demand despite the energy transition.

The view from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in its 2022 World Oil Outlook, contrasts with that of other forecasters which see oil demand reaching a plateau before 2030 due to the rise of renewable energy and electric cars.    Another decade of oil demand growth would be a boost for OPEC, whose 13 members depend on oil income. The group has been arguing that oil should be part of the energy transition and that focus by investors on economic, social and governance (ESG) issues has worsened an investment shortfall.    “The overall investment number for the oil sector is $12.1 trillion out to 2045,” OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in the foreword to the report, which said the figure was up from last year’s estimate.    “However, chronic underinvestment into the global oil industry in recent years, due to industry downturns, the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as policies centred on ending financing in fossil fuel projects, is a major cause of concern.”    OPEC made a shift in 2020 when the pandemic hit demand, saying it would eventually slow after years of predicting ever-increasing consumption. In the report, OPEC maintained its view that world demand will plateau after 2035.

GRAPHIC: OPEC World Oil Demand Forecast https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zgpobwzamvd/Pasted%20image%201667239252245.png

    Other predictions from companies and banks see oil demand peaking earlier.     The International Energy Agency on Thursday for the first time in its history of modelling said demand for all fossil fuels was set to peak, with oil demand levelling off in the middle of the next decade.             ENERGY SECURITY DEMAND BOOST    The report said world oil demand will reach 103 million barrels per day in 2023, up 2.7 million bpd from 2022. The 2023 total demand is up 1.4 million bpd from last year’s prediction.     OPEC also raised its demand forecasts for the medium term to 2027, saying the figure is up by almost 2 million bpd by the end of the period from last year.    It said the upward revision reflects a more robust recovery now seen in 2022 and 2023 and a “strong focus on energy security issues” leading to a slower substitution of oil by other fuels such as natural gas, whose price has soared due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.    By 2030, OPEC sees world demand averaging 108.3 million bpd, up from 2021, and lifted its 2045 figure to 109.8 million bpd from 108.2 million bpd in 2021. The group had lowered the 2045projection over the last few years.     OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, are again cutting supply to support the market. The report sees supply restraint continuing in the medium term, with OPEC output in 2027 lower than in 2022 as non-OPEC supply grows.    Still, OPEC is upbeat about its later prospects, seeing its market share rising. U.S. tight crude supply is seen peakingafter the late 2020s, rather than around 2030 last year.    “Oil is expected to remain the number one fuel in the global primary energy mix,” the report said.  

(Reporting by Alex Lawler; editing by David Evans)

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U.S. Supreme Court spurns Turkey’s bid to avoid suits over 2017 Washington protest

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Nate Raymond

(Reuters) – The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear Turkey’s bid to dismiss two lawsuits filed by demonstrators seeking monetary damages after accusing Turkish security forces of injuring them in a 2017 protest in Washington during a visit by President Tayyip Erdogan.

The justices turned away an appeal by Turkey of lower court rulings allowing the litigation to proceed, rejecting the NATO ally’s argument that it has immunity from such legal action in the United States under a federal law called the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act.

At issue in the litigation is a melee involving members of Erdogan’s security detail that occurred as protesters demonstrated outside the Turkish ambassador’s residence in Washington on May 6, 2017. Erdogan was in the U.S. capital to meet then-President Donald Trump. The incident strained relations between Turkey and the United States.

Two lawsuits were filed in 2018 – one case brought by 15 plaintiffs and the other by five – seeking to hold Turkey’s government responsible and asking for monetary damages for injuries that included concussions, seizures and lost teeth. The plaintiffs sought tens of millions of dollars, according to court papers.

The Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act limits the jurisdiction of American courts over lawsuits against foreign governments.

Andreas Akaras, a lawyer for some of the demonstrators, said in a statement that he and his colleagues “look forward to holding Turkey accountable in a court of law for its terrorizing attack against our clients.”

A lawyer representing Turkey declined to comment.

Turkey has blamed the brawl on demonstrators linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party. The police chief in the U.S. capital described the incident as a “brutal attack” on peaceful protesters.

Criminal assault charges were brought in Washington against several Turkish security agents and others involved. Two of the defendants – not members of Erdogan’s security team – pleaded guilty. Prosecutors dropped charges against 11 agents in 2018.

President Joe Biden’s administration had urged the Supreme Court not to hear Turkey’s appeal to avoid the lawsuits, saying that when foreign security personnel deploy force in ways that are not related to protecting officials from bodily harm they are acting outside their legal protections.

Lower courts ruled against Turkey. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in 2021 ruled that while members of the Turkish security detail had a right to protect Erdogan, their actions in this incident did not meet that exception.

Turkey had argued that a failure by the Supreme Court to reverse that ruling threatened to disrupt U.S. foreign relations and “invites reciprocal erosion of immunity for U.S. security agents protecting American presidents, diplomats and missions abroad.”

(Reporting by Nate Raymond in Boston; Editing by Will Dunham)

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EU industry chief issues China warning ahead of Scholz’s Beijing visit

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Michel Rose

PARIS (Reuters) – The European Union’s industry chief said on Monday that European governments and companies must realise China is a rival to the EU and they should not be naive whenever they approve Chinese investment.

European Commissioner Thierry Breton’s comments appeared to be aimed in part at Germany, whose Chancellor Olaf Scholz will visit Beijing on Friday.

Over the past few years, the EU has passed a series of defensive measures designed to better control investment from state-owned foreign players, including from China, to ensure rival powers do not gain more political leverage over the bloc.

But many diplomats have been baffled by Germany’s recent decision to approve the sale of a stake in Hamburg’s port, the country’s largest, to a Chinese company.

In an interview with Reuters, Breton said he “preferred” the decision to sell only 25% of the terminal to China’s Cosco than the original proposal, which would have sold China more than a third and give it a blocking minority.

“We need to be extremely vigilant,” he said.

Breton said that since the EU had labelled China a “systemic rival” in 2019, the EU had adopted a series of measures they can use to block investment in critical infrastructure.

“It’s up to member states to use them and change their behaviour,” Breton said.

Scholz’s visit to Beijing will be the first by an EU leader since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

He has faced criticism ahead of the trip for allowing Cosco to invest in Hamburg, despite strong pushback from his governing coalition partners amid concerns over Chinese influence over critical infrastructure.

French and German government sources told Reuters French President Emmanuel Macron had suggested to Scholz they go together to Beijing to send a signal of EU unity to Beijing and counter what they see as Chinese attempts to play one country over another.

But the German chancellor declined Macron’s offer, the sources said.

Asked about Scholz’s trip, Breton said EU countries should adopt a more united approach.

“It’s very important that the behaviour of member states towards China… change in a way that’s more coordinated than individually-driven, as China obviously wants us to be,” he said.

The more defensive EU approach towards China was the result of Beijing’s attitude during the COVID-19 pandemic that saw Chinese autorities exploit countries’ reliance on China for equipments such as face masks to gain diplomatic leverage, he said.

“We can’t forget all of that,” Breton said. “The era of naivete is over. The European market is open, with conditions.”

He also warned European companies tempted to increase their investment in China that they did so at their own risk in a country that was becoming more “autocratic”.

Germany’s BASF said it would cut the size of its European sites “permanently” because of a triple burden of sluggish growth, high energy costs and over-regulation, and planned expansion in China instead.

“There are uncertainties for the companies that make this bet,” Breton said. “There’s a very important advantage in being based in Europe, with the rule of law, company protection and visibility,” he said.

(Reporting by Michel Rose; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

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True the Vote leaders jailed after being found in contempt

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

(Reuters) – Two leaders of a Texas nonprofit with a history of spreading false claims about voter fraud were jailed on Monday for not complying with a judge’s order to identify a person behind data at the heart of their claims of a conspiracy involving China.

U.S. District Judge Kenneth Hoyt ordered Gregg Phillips and Catherine Englebrecht, leaders of True the Vote, detained by U.S. Marshals “for one-day and further until they fully comply with the Court’s Order,” according to a notice from the federal court in Houston.

Hoyt, a Ronald Reagan appointee, had given Phillips and Englebrecht until a Monday morning hearing to identify a man who helped them access data related to their allegations that a Michigan-based election software company had transferred sensitive poll worker information to China.

Phillips and Englebrecht declined to name the man, claiming their hands were tied because he is an FBI informant, according to a person who attended the hearing. They were escorted out of the courtroom by U.S. Marshals, the person said.

Lawyers for Phillips and Englebrecht did not respond to a request for comment.

Hoyt is overseeing a defamation case brought last month by the election software company, Konnech Inc, against True the Vote and its principals over claims they made about Konnech and its founder, Eugene Yu. They alleged the company was holding personal information on some 1.8 million poll workers on a server in China and accused Yu, who immigrated to the United States decades ago, of being a Chinese operative.

Their allegations triggered an investigation by the Los Angeles District Attorney’s Office, which charged Yu with two felonies earlier this month. Those allege Yu violated the company’s contract with Los Angeles County that restricts access to poll worker data to citizens and permanent residents inside the United States.

Konnech and Yu have denied the allegations.

Yu’s arrest has been hailed by some right-wing organizations focused on voter fraud as a vindication of their warnings about the vulnerability of U.S. election systems, including to hacking by overseas adversaries like China.

At the same time, the defamation case in Houston has raised questions about the data backing True the Vote’s claims.

True the Vote’s research was behind the widely discredited “2000 Mules” film that claimed to have discovered widespread voter fraud during the 2020 presidential election.

(Reporting by Nathan Layne; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

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Blackstone to take control of Emerson’s climate tech in $14 billion deal

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Nathan Gomes, Kannaki Deka and David Carnevali

(Reuters) – Emerson Electric Co will sell a majority stake in its climate technologies unit to Blackstone Inc in a deal that values the business at $14 billion, as the U.S. industrial firm pivots to supplying to a booming automation market.

The company will receive an upfront payment of about $9.5 billion, it said on Monday, which it will use to scoop up more firms, especially in the automation segment.

Emerson’s shares edged up 1% in a weak broader market as the company also beat fourth-quarter earnings and revenue.

Businesses are accelerating their efforts to automate their operations amid a shortage of factory workers, and Emerson has doubled down on its software strategy to capture that shift.

The company sold its division that makes waste disposal equipment and hot water dispensers to Whirlpool Corp and merged its software units with smaller rival Aspen Technology.

GRAPHIC: Emerson vs S&P 500 https://graphics.reuters.com/EMERSON-STAKE/mopakmdlapa/EMR%20YTD%20shr%20graphic.png

Emerson, which will retain about 45% stake in the climate tech unit, said Blackstone and co-investors Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and Singapore state fund GIC would contribute $4.4 billion in equity toward the deal, which would be supplemented by $5.5 billion of debt financing. The debt will be equivalent to about four times the new company’s annual cash flow.

“(Emerson) is significantly re-orienting its portfolio to result in a more focused and potentially higher growth enterprise,” Citi Research analysts said.

The deal, expected to close in the first half of 2023, is the latest in a flurry of private equity transactions this year as a selloff in equities on recession worries hammered valuations.

The Climate Technologies business, which will be structured as a joint venture, generated net sales of $5 billion in fiscal 2022.

The deal values the unit at 12.7 times its cash flow in fiscal 2022, a premium to peers such as manufacturers of components and industrial companies that own HVAC businesses, which trade at roughly 10.5 and 11.5 times, respectively.

“The business is poised for accelerated growth as it leads the way in helping consumers and businesses shift to more energy-efficient heating and cooling products as part of their carbon reduction efforts,” global head of Blackstone Private Equity Joe Baratta said.

Emerson said it plans to use proceeds from the deal to invest in automation-related businesses and spend around $2 billion on share repurchases in 2023.

Centerview Partners LLC and Goldman Sachs are financial advisers to Emerson, while Barclays is the lead financial adviser to Blackstone.

(Reporting by Nathan Gomes and Kannaki Deka in Bengaluru and David Carnevali in New York; Additional reporting by Jaiveer Singh Shekhawat in Bengaluru; Editing by Shailesh Kuber, Sriraj Kalluvila and Lisa Shumaker)

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U.N. Black Sea grain pact under threat as Russia quits

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Nigel Hunt and Naveen Thukral

LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Grain was flowing out of Ukraine at a record pace on Monday under an initiative led by the United Nations aimed at easing global food shortages despite Russia warning it was risky to continue after it pulled out of the pact.

Russia said on Monday that the deal was hardly feasible as it was impossible to guarantee the safety of shipping after its withdrawal over the weekend following what it said was a major Ukrainian drone attack on its fleet in Crimea.

Other participants, however, were pressing ahead with the deal while France said it was talking to other European Union states about how to boost Ukraine grain exports via land routes.

Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain exporters and the conflict with Russia led to the closure of its seaports in February, driving up food prices and contributing to a steep rise in acute hunger across the globe.

The deal, signed on July 22, created a safe corridor to allow exports to resume from three Ukrainian ports and helped to ease the crisis with more than 9.5 million tonnes of corn, wheat, sunflower products, barley, rapeseed and soy exported under the pact.

U.N. aid chief Martin Griffiths said on Monday the corridor does not provide cover for military action, adding there were no ships involved in a deal were transiting it on the night of Oct. 29, when Russia says its vessels in the Bay of Sevastopol in Crimea were attacked.

A record volume of 354,500 tonnes of agricultural products was carried on vessels leaving Ukrainian ports on Monday as part of the Black Sea grain deal, a spokesperson for Odesa’s military administration said.

“Civilian cargo ships can never be a military target or held hostage. The food must flow,” tweeted Amir Abdullah, the U.N. official who coordinates the programme.

Russia, however, cast doubts about the future of the pact.

“In conditions when Russia is talking about the impossibility of guaranteeing the safety of shipping in these areas, such a deal is hardly feasible, and it takes on a different character – much more risky, dangerous and unguaranteed,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters.

GREATER RISKS

Lloyd’s of London insurer Ascot said on Monday it was pausing writing cover for new shipments using the Ukrainian grains corridor.

“From today we are pausing on quoting new shipments until we better understand the situation,” Ascot head of cargo Chris McGill told Reuters. “Insurance that has already been issued still stands.”

Marcus Baker, global head of marine and cargo with broker Marsh, said that the change in the risk environment over the last 48 hours was “very significant”.

“Given the change in circumstances it is not surprising that underwriters have taken the decision to suspend the facility until there is greater clarity,” Baker said.

Turkey, which helped broker the deal, remained committed to the deal which involves the inspection of cargoes at a Joint Coordination Centre in Istanbul.

“Even if Russia behaves hesitantly because it didn’t receive the same benefits, we will continue decisively our efforts to serve humanity,” President Tayyip Erdogan said in a speech.

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar told his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu on Monday that Moscow should re-evaluate the suspension of its participation.

GRAIN PRICES CLIMB

Wheat prices rose on Monday, climbing around 5% to $8.71 a bushel in Chicago, but remained far below a peak of $13.63-1/2 set in early March shortly after the conflict began.

The strong pace of wheat exports from Russia, which harvested a record crop this summer, has helped to bolster supplies on the world market.

Consultancy Sovecon on Monday estimated that Russia would export 4.5 million tonnes of wheat in October, up from 2.8 million in the same month last year.

Corn prices rose around 1% to $6.87-1/2 a bushel in Chicago on Monday while soybean oil rose more than 2% to 73.36 cents per lb.

Traders warned that hundreds of thousands of tonnes of wheat booked for delivery to Africa and the Middle East could now be at risk.

“If I have to replace a vessel which was due to come from Ukraine, what are the options? Not much really,” said one Singapore-based grains trader who supplies wheat to buyers in Asia and the Middle East.

Ukraine is also a major exporter of corn and there were concerns that shipments to the European Union were at risk.

“As far as Europe is concerned, corn is a bigger issue than wheat as we are getting into peak season for Ukrainian corn in November,” said one grain trader said.

Analysts warned that although global agricultural commodity prices have come off record highs in recent months, local retail food prices remain high and could now face further upside.

“Typically, it takes about two months for higher grain prices to filter through the supply chain and impact consumers at the retail level,” said a Sydney-based analyst.

“But food processors do not have much forward coverage, so it is likely to be a lot quicker.”

(Repoting by Reuters bureaux, writing by Nigel Hunt, editing by David Evans)

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Biden to ask Congress to act if oil cos don’t lower costs, White House says

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday will call on oil and gas companies to invest some of their record profits in lowering costs for American families, a White House official said.

“And if they don’t, he will call on Congress to consider requiring oil companies to pay tax penalties and face other restrictions,” the official said on condition of anonymity.

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal; Writing by Doina Chiacu; Editing by Susan Heavey)

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Energy shares shine again on Wall Street, lifted by earnings

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Lewis Krauskopf

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Strong earnings are helping energy stocks extend this year’s torrid run, furthering their contrast with the tech-focused megacaps whose disappointing results have battered their shares. 

A standout all year, the S&P 500 energy sector is up 26% in October alone, against an 8% rise for the overall S&P 500. Oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron are up roughly 29% and 27% for the month, respectively, with oilfield services firm Halliburton jumping 47%.

For the year, the energy sector has soared nearly 65%. It’s the only one of 11 S&P 500 sectors in positive territory so far in 2022, with the broader index down about 19%, and heavyweight stocks such as Amazon and Tesla pounded as Federal Reserve rate hikes clobber asset prices.

“The reason why they have been rallying … is earnings have been really, really strong,” said King Lip, chief strategist at Baker Avenue Asset Management in San Francisco. There is “a lot of momentum in that space, and a lot of people just rushing to what’s working.”

S&P 500 energy companies are on pace to have increased earnings by 135% in the third quarter from the year-earlier period, according to Refinitiv IBES. Overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to have climbed just 4%. Indeed, excluding energy’s contribution, S&P 500 earnings are set to have declined 3.5% in the quarter, according to IBES.

The sector’s earnings power was on full display last Friday, when Exxon and Chevron both posted results that smashed estimates.

Chevron posted a net profit of $11.2 billion, almost double the $6.1 billion from the same period last year. Exxon’s $19.66 billion third-quarter net profit was nearly as much as the $20.7 billion for Apple, the largest U.S. company by market value.

GRAPHIC: Energy shares burn bright on Wall Street https://graphics.reuters.com/USA-STOCKS/ENERGY/egvbynqojpq/chart.png

By contrast last week, companies that have heavy weights in stock indexes, including Amazon, Google parent Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta Platforms posted results that soundly disappointed investors.

Energy companies are benefiting from rising oil and gas prices, with U.S. crude prices up 16% so far this year.

Companies are also demonstrating cost and capital-spending discipline, said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management.

“If money does follow earnings, then it makes sense at least that the sector continues to do well,” Nolte said.

With its recent gains, the S&P’s energy sector was approaching its June peak, which was the highest the sector has reached since 2014.

Because of its outperformance this year, the 23-component sector now makes up about 5.3% of the weight of the S&P 500, nearly twice as much as at the end of 2021.

Despite their increase this year, oil prices are well off their highs from earlier in 2022, and another jolt up could drive shares of the companies even further, Nolte said.

But Lip said after a strong 2022, the firms may have trouble topping their earnings performance in future quarters. Indeed, energy sector earnings are expected to decline 11.5% in 2023, according to IBES data.

“The way that Wall Street works is, ‘show me the money’ in terms of earnings growth, and you are just not going to see it in energy companies going forward,” Lip said. “It’s just a lot harder comps.”

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Nick Zieminski)

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FTSE 100 hits fresh five-week high, EasyJet rises on takeover talk

by Reuters October 31, 2022
By Reuters

By Johann M Cherian and Sruthi Shankar

(Reuters) -Britain’s FTSE 100 closed at a fresh five-week high on Monday as a fall in sterling lifted dollar-earners such as AstraZeneca and Unilever, while shares in EasyJet rallied on speculation of a takeover by British Airways owner IAG.

The blue-chip index rose 0.7% to close at its strongest level since Sept. 23 and marked its first monthly rise in three.

Global companies such as AstraZeneca, Unilever and BP, which draw large parts of their revenue overseas, rose nearly 2% as sterling slid. [GBP/]

Investors will look to the Bank of England and the U.S. Federal Reserve for any signs of easing in their aggressive monetary policy tightening cycles, with each expected to hike rates by 75 basis points this week.

“It all adds up to an increasingly difficult tightrope for monetary policy makers on both sides of the Atlantic to walk, as they look to bring inflation under control without doing too much economic damage in the process,” Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said.

UK markets have recouped some of the sharp losses made earlier in October when former Prime Minister Liz Truss’s economic plan sent borrowing costs sharply higher and triggered political turmoil.

Truss was replaced by former finance minister Rishi Sunak who reversed almost all of her plans and brought a measure of relief to the UK’s financial markets.

The FTSE 250 index, most exposed to the domestic economy, edged down 0.2% on Monday but marked monthly gains of 4.2%.

The banking sector gained 1.3% after a Sunday Times report said more windfall taxes in the UK were unlikely.

Easyjet jumped 6.1% after a Times report said that International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG) is to renew its EU consolidation plans, fuelling speculation that Easyjet could be a takeover target. IAG rose 5.4%.

Centrica Plc rose 4.7% after brokerage Jefferies upgraded the stock to “buy” and raised its price target, citing strong fundamentals.

(Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu, Shailesh Kuber and Andrew Heavens)

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October 31, 2022 0 comments
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