By Julia Harte and Daniel Trotta

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Crime dominated the debate between New York Governor Kathy Hochul and Republican challenger Lee Zeldin on Tuesday, as polls indicate Zeldin has leveraged the issue to narrow the gap against the Democratic incumbent ahead of the Nov. 8 election.

The state’s majority Democratic electorate has not chosen a Republican governor since 2002. But recent public opinion polls show Zeldin is gaining on Hochul, prompting the governor to put new focus on public safety in the final weeks of her campaign. Early voting starts in four days.

Zeldin declared the state was “in crisis,” citing crime, the economy and other issues, while ramping up criticism of policies Hochul has supported, such as eliminating cash bail for non-violent felonies and most misdemeanors.

“There are criminals out there who need to pay the consequences for their action, instead of the catch and release policies that Kathy Hochul champions,” said Zeldin, a U.S. representative from Long Island.

Hochul, the state’s former lieutenant governor who took office last year after Governor Andrew Cuomo resigned over sexual harassment accusations, turned the crime debate to the Republican’s expansive view of gun rights over gun control.

“It is a joke to talk about a crime policy that doesn’t include doing something about illegal guns,” Hochul said.

“No more school massacres by teenagers. Let’s have background checks. Let’s have safety checks. Let’s do it smart. You are nowhere to be found.”

Hochul is still projected to win, and some polls showed her ahead by more than 20 percentage points as recently as this summer. But as Zeldin called attention to some sensational crimes on the New York City subway system, her lead dwindled to single digits in some mid-October polls. Quinnipiac University and SurveyUSA showed her leading by just four and six points, respectively.

While the economy remains the top priority for the biggest share of voters, 5% have continuously ranked crime or corruption as the most important problem facing the United States today, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling from late September to late October.

Hochul’s campaign previously focused on attacking Zeldin’s ties to Republican former U.S. President Donald Trump, warning that Zeldin would roll back abortion rights in New York if elected.

She has emphasized public safety more in recent days, releasing an ad on Friday that pledged “a safer New York for every child” and appearing with New York City Mayor Eric Adams on Saturday to announce a surge in the police presence in the city’s subway system.

(Reporting by Julia Harte in New York and Daniel Trotta in Carlsbad, Calif.; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Josie Kao)

By Byron Kaye and Harshita Swaminathan

SYDNEY (Reuters) -Australian No. 2 grocer Coles Group Ltd flagged climate change as its next big operational challenge on Wednesday as floods pushed up prices in the first quarter, lifting sales revenue but squeezing the farming supply chain.

The commentary shows one of the country’s biggest companies acknowledging that extreme weather events will likely become more common as the planet warms.

Australia’s east coast, home to four-fifths of the population, has endured floods through 2022 that Treasurer Jim Chalmers said were disrupting livelihoods and pushing up the cost of living when he delivered the federal budget on Tuesday.

Coles said supermarket sales rose 2.3% in the three months to end-September, helped by price inflation of 7.1%, nearly double the previous quarter’s 4.3%, and added that prices would rise further due to flooding.

“We’re very alert to the (fact) that the climate is changing, and we’re doing a lot of work around how do we secure supply better, to manage our way through these various things that will … continue to happen over the next 10 years,” Coles CEO Steven Cain told analysts on a call.

So far, most disruption brought by floods was related to access to farms rather than destroying entire crops, but Cain said it was not clear what the quality of the fruit would be.

Total comparable sales revenue, which include liquor and a chain of service station stores that Coles sold during the quarter, came in at A$10.2 billion ($6.52 billion), up 1.8%.

Coles shares fell 3% by mid-session, against a flat overall market, as analysts weighed the impact of inflation, which economists also blame on soaring energy prices, on profit growth.

The end of pandemic-era stockpiling had likely contributed to declining sales volumes but “trading down is likely contributing to this as well,” Ord Minett analysts wrote in a note, referring to buying cheaper products.

Shares of larger rival Woolworths Group Ltd, which reports September quarter sales on Nov. 3, were also down 3%. At its annual meeting, Woolworths CEO Brad Banducci said inflation remained a concern and the company expected the operating environment to remain challenging.

With Australian inflation at a 32-year high of 7.3% in the September quarter, Coles CEO Cain said cost of living pressures were changing customer behaviour, with lower-income shoppers buying less fresh produce and more canned goods, and “catering in bulk” to reduce food waste.

($1 = 1.5662 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Byron Kaye in Sydney and Harshita Swaminathan and Upasana Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath, Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Jamie Freed)

By Jeff Mason and Steve Holland

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The White House on Tuesday welcomed moves taken by Saudi Arabia to help Ukraine in its war with Russia as President Joe Biden ponders how tough to be against the Saudis for joining an oil output cut.

White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that Biden and his team would take their time in assessing what consequences Saudi Arabia should face for an Oct. 12 decision by Saudi-led OPEC+ to cut oil output.

Biden, worried that gasoline prices will spike ahead of Nov. 8 congressional elections, has warned the Saudis will face consequences for siding with Russia and agreeing to cut output. Some lawmakers want the United States to suspend arms sales to the longtime Middle Eastern ally.

Since the OPEC+ decision, Saudi Arabia’s representative to the United Nations has condemned Russia’s annexation of four regions inside Ukraine.

“We’ve taken note since the OPEC+ cut that Saudi Arabia voted against Russia at the United Nations and also pledged $4 million to support Ukraine’s reconstruction and humanitarian needs,” Jean-Pierre told reporters.

The White House has given no timeline for completing a policy review on Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Investment Minister Khalid al-Falih said at a forum in Riyadh that his country and the United States will get over their “unwarranted” spat, highlighting long-standing corporate and institutional ties.

(Reporting by Jeff Mason and Steve Holland; Editing by Mark Porter and Cynthia Osterman)

By Divya Rajagopal and Dan Whitcomb

(Reuters) -Canada on Tuesday imposed conditions on Rogers Communications’ proposed remedy to overcome competition bureau concerns about Rogers’ planned C$20 billion ($14.7 billion) purchase of rival Shaw Communications.

Rogers has offered to sell Shaw’s Freedom Mobile unit to Quebecor Inc’s Videotron to allay the antitrust bureau’s concerns over reduced competition in the Canadian market following the Shaw deal.

Canadian Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne told a media conference on Tuesday that Videotron would be required to hold the Freedom Mobile unit for at least 10 years.

“Second, I would expect to see prices for wireless service in Ontario and Western Canada comparable to what Videotron is currently offering in Quebec, which are today on average 20% lower than in the rest of Canada,” he added.

Champagne also said the government has formally rejected the wholesale transfer of wireless spectrum license from Shaw to Rogers under the original deal.

Champagne’s announcement at a news conference came days before the companies go into mediation at the Competition Tribunal regarding the takeover. Canada Competition Bureau has said the sale of Freedom Mobile to Videotron is not sufficient to overcome its concerns about market concentration. But Champagne has the final say on the deal.

“Given the ongoing proceedings, we will decline to comment at this time,” Rogers said.

Quebecor welcomed the conditions stipulated by Champagne and said it will incorporate those into the new version of the Rogers-Shaw, Quebecor-Freedom Mobile transaction.

“We are pleased to see that Minister Champagne recognizes and supports the highly competitive environment created by Videotron in Québec’s wireless market over the past several years,” Quebecor Chief Executive Officer Pierre Karl Peladeau said in a statement.

Rogers first announced the purchase of Shaw in 2021, but Canada’s competition bureau blocked the deal saying it would lessen competition in a market where wireless bills are among the highest in the world.

“Canadians deserve world-class networks, and access to wireless services at affordable and competitive prices. I am resolved to achieve these objectives, full stop,” Champagne added.

($1 = 1.3619 Canadian dollars)

(Reporting by Dan Whitcomb and Divya Rajagopal; Additional reporting by Maria Ponnezhath; Editing by Cynthia Osterman, Stephen Coates and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

By Lawrence White, Sinead Cruise and Anshuman Daga

LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Georges Elhedery’s appointment as HSBC’s chief financial officer caps a journey that’s taken him from war-torn Lebanon to frontrunner for the top job at Europe’s biggest bank. It’s also surprised investors and raised questions about HSBC’s direction.

Known at HSBC for his strategic vision more than for his accounting skills, Elhedery has climbed the ranks of HSBC’s investment bank since joining in 2005. With his latest promotion the 48-year-old is just one step away from the top role.

“It was a surprise to us,” said Hugh Young, Asia chairman of Aberdeen Standard Investments, one of HSBC’s top 25 shareholders. CEO Noel Quinn has done a good job but investors are impatient for faster progress, Young said.

Elhedery’s move to CFO comes at a difficult juncture for HSBC. Since Quinn formally took over as CEO in March 2020, HSBC shares have dropped nearly 10%, and the company has been caught up in political tensions between the West and China.

The bank is under pressure from its biggest investor Ping An to explore options, including listing its Asia business, a move that HSBC has rebuffed.

The bank’s performance isn’t helping.

HSBC’s profits slid 42% in the third quarter as bad loans rose in the face of a darkening global economic outlook.

The bank also alarmed investors by cutting its 2023 forecast for net interest income despite a benign interest rate environment, sending its shares nearly 7% lower on Tuesday.

HSBC declined to comment for this article, as did Elhedery through an HSBC spokesperson.

Quinn earlier told Reuters: “There is no change in strategy as a consequence of these leadership changes.” He said the London-headquartered bank had succession in mind.

Under CFO Ewen Stevenson, HSBC has been trying to improve profitability by exiting business and cutting costs, a task some questioned whether Elhedery would be most adept at.

One person familiar with Elhedery said he was a skilled operator but might lack the accounting expertise typically associated with the CFO role. Elhedery’s strengths were much more in strategy and people management, another source said.

Analysts too expressed surprise at the jettisoning of Stevenson, seen as a safe pair of hands who had steered the bank through a period of restructuring as it tried to cut costs and trim its businesses around the world.

“It’s very disappointing to hear that Ewen is stepping down, he has had a transformational impact on HSBC’s cost discipline, bringing much-needed credibility to its financial targets and execution,” said Ian Gordon, analyst at Investec.

CIVIL WAR

Born in Beirut during Lebanon’s civil war that split its capital city into Christian East and Muslim West, Elhedery grew up with a retail banker father and teacher mother, based on past interviews he has given.

Elhedery moved to Paris to study engineering at the École Polytechnique and took a postgraduate degree in statistics and economics.

He began his career in banking as a rates trader, joined HSBC in 2005 in the Global Banking and Markets division, and rose through the ranks.

In 2016, he took over the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey region managing 10,000 staff across all the bank’s business lines and overseeing risk, financial crime, compliance and capital management.

In 2020, he became co-head of the Global Banking and Markets business, the division which houses HSBC’s trading and investment banking advisory businesses, taking over from fellow Lebanese-born, Paris-educated banker Samir Assaf.

He surprised colleagues at HSBC this year by announcing a sabbatical, characterised at the time as a break to spend time with his family and recharge his batteries.

This came as executives were moving to Hong Kong, as part of a wave of relocations by HSBC of senior roles to the bank’s biggest market.

His co-head of the investment bank Greg Guyett was left in sole charge of the business. On his return this September Elhedery said he would focus on working on projects with CEO Quinn.

A regular fixture at the bank’s Diversity and Inclusion events, according to one person, Elhedery has been seen taking equal interest in the needs of junior staffers as much as senior ranks.

He runs 10 kilometres before work every day, according to one of his former employees. That says everything about the kind of man he is, this banker told Reuters.

(Reporting By Lawrence White, Sinead Cruise and Anshuman Daga, additional reporting by Pamela Barbaglia. Editing by Jane Merriman)

KRASNOGORSK, Russia (Reuters) -A Russian court on Tuesday dismissed U.S. WNBA basketball star Brittney Griner’s appeal against a nine-year sentence for possessing and smuggling vape cartridges containing cannabis oil, paving the way for her to be sent to a penal colony, in a court case that Washington has called “sham.”

U.S. President Joe Biden, whose administration in late July had proposed a deal for a prisoner swap with Russia to secure the release of Griner and former U.S. marine Paul Whelan, said he will not let up efforts to bring them home.

“We’re in constant contact with Russian authorities to get Brittney and others out. So far we’ve not been meeting with much positive response but we’re not stopping,” he said.

Griner, a two-time Olympic gold medallist, was arrested on Feb. 17 at a Moscow airport, a week before Russia sent troops into Ukraine. The souring of ties between Russia and the West has further complicated the talks between Washington and Moscow to secure her release.

Griner and her lawyers had asked for acquittal or at least a reduction in her sentence, which they said was disproportionate to the offence and at odds with Russian judicial practice.

After retiring for no more than 30 minutes to consider the appeal, the presiding judge said the original verdict was upheld “without changes” except for the counting of time served in pre-trial detention as part of the sentence.

The state prosecutor had said Griner’s Aug. 4 sentence of nine years in a penal colony was “fair”, but Alexander Boykov, one of her lawyers, had told the three-judge panel sitting in Krasnogorsk, on the outskirts of Moscow:

“No judge, hand on heart, will honestly say that Griner’s nine-year sentence is in line with Russian criminal law,” Boykov said.

Griner’s lawyers in a statement said it would be some time before Griner was moved to a prison colony, and that they had not yet decided whether to try to launch another appeal. They also added her case file would have to be translated into English, which would also take some time.

It was not immediately clear where she would be sent.

“The severity and cruelty of the sentence applied to Griner shocks people around the world,” Boykov said.

Biden’s national security advisor Jake Sullivan, in an earlier statement, described Griner’s conditions as “intolerable circumstances” and the trial she had to go through “another sham judicial proceeding.”

Permitted to make a final statement by live video link from her detention centre in the town of Novoye Grishino, just outside Moscow, Griner said how stressful her eight-month detention and two trials had been.

“I was barely over the significant amount [of cannabis oil] … People with more severe crimes have gotten less than what I was given,” she said.

‘I DID NOT INTEND TO DO THIS’

Griner apologised for what she said was an honest mistake, as she had at her original trial, saying: “I did not intend to do this”, and asking the court to take into account the fact that she had pleaded guilty.

She has said she used medical cannabis to relieve the pain from a series of sports injuries. Both recreational and medicinal uses are prohibited in Russia.

Wearing a black and red lumberjack shirt over a black hooded top, the 32-year-old alternately sat or stood in her cell, sometimes with head lowered, sometimes leaning against the white bars.

When asked if she had understood the verdict, she merely replied “Yes” before being led away.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a briefing Washington has been telling Moscow, including in their talks in recent days, to engage on the U.S. proposal.

“At the very least they should engage seriously and constructively and in good faith. If that happens, we are prepared to see to it and to take steps tomorrow,” Price said.

U.S. Charge d’Affaires Elizabeth Rood, the ranking U.S. diplomat in Moscow, told media waiting outside the court that she had not been allowed to speak to Griner before or after the hearing.

Griner’s lawyers said her biggest fear was not being exchanged and having to serve her entire sentence in Russia. “She had hopes for today as each month, each day away from her family and friends matters to her.”

(Reporting by Filipp Lebedev and Olesya Astakhova; Additional reporting by Jeff Mason and Daphne Psaledakis in Washington, Writing by Kevin Liffey and Humeyra Pamuk; Editing by Mark Trevelyan, Nick Macfie and Marguerita Choy)

By Hari Kishan

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The global economy is approaching a recession as economists polled by Reuters once again cut growth forecasts for key economies while central banks keep raising interest rates to bring down persistently-high inflation.

One bright spot is that most major economies already in a recession or heading into one are starting with relatively low unemployment compared with previous downturns. Indeed the latest poll expects the smallest gap between growth rates and joblessness in at least four decades.

But while that might deaden the intensity of recessions – most respondents say it will be short and shallow in key economies – that may also keep inflation elevated for longer than most currently expect.

A majority of the top global central banks are over two-thirds of the way to the expected terminal interest rate, but with inflation still much higher than their mandates, the risk is those rate expectations are too low.

After being late to call the inflation problem, global central banks have spent most of this year frontloading rate hikes to catch up. Most economists and central banks are of the view there will be little work left to do next year.

Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank, said “risk of a global recession” is what everyone’s talking about and has become mainstream in forecasts. “I think that’s pretty much a no-brainer when you look at the trend in all the key economies.”

Looking at the low jobless rate is problematic, Every said, because it is a lagging indicator and “the longer it stays stronger the more central banks will feel that they can continue to hike rates.”

(Graphic: Reuters Poll – Terminal rate outlook https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/gkplwmxndvb/Reuters%20Poll%20-%20Terminal%20rate%20outlook.png)

Of the 22 central banks polled this time, only six were expected to hit their inflation targets by the end of next year. That was a downgrade from July surveys, where two-thirds of 18 were expected to hit their respective targets by then.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote: “…history never repeats exactly, but since inflation forecasting has generally been so poor over the last 18 months, it’s worth us asking what normally happens when inflation breaches these thresholds. The answer is that it’s normally quite sticky.”

In the meantime global equity and bond markets are in disarray while the U.S. dollar is at a multi-decade peak in foreign exchange markets based on U.S. rate expectations.

A strong 70% majority of economists, 179 of 257, said chances of a sharp rise in unemployment over the coming year were low to very low, underscoring how widespread the view is among forecasters that it won’t be a devastating recession.

Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.3% in 2023 from an expected 2.9% this year, followed by a rebound to 3.0% in 2024, according to Reuters polls of economists covering 47 key economies taken Sept. 26-Oct. 25.

Those were all downgrades from polls taken in July.

(Graphic: Reuters Poll – Economic outlook of major economies https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/zjpqjqerkvx/Reuters%20Poll%20-%20Economic%20outlook%20of%20major%20economies.png)

Over 70% of economists, 173 of 242, said the cost of living crisis in the economies they cover would worsen over the next six months. The remaining 64 expected it to improve.

While the inflation cycle is global in nature, made worse by a sudden surge in energy prices after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, much will depend on how far the U.S. Federal Reserve was likely to push rates higher.

The Fed is expected to go for a fourth consecutive 75 basis points interest rate hike on Nov. 2, and economists say it shouldn’t pause until inflation falls to around half its current level.

China, the world’s second largest economy, was expected to grow 3.2% in 2022, far below the official target of around 5.5% and also well below pre-pandemic growth rates.

Excluding the meagre 2.2% expansion after the initial COVID-19 hit in 2020, that would be the worst performance since 1976.

India’s economy was also forecast to grow well below its potential over the next two years with medians showing 6.9% growth in the 2022-23 fiscal year and 6.1% next year.

The euro zone economy was expected to grow 3.0% this year but flatline in 2023 before expanding 1.5% in 2024.

(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)

(Reporting by Hari Kishan; Polling, analysis and reporting by the Reuters Polls team in Bengaluru and bureaus in Buenos Aires, Johannesburg, London, Istanbul, Shanghai, and Tokyo; editing by Jonathan Oatis)

(Reuters) – U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chair Sherrod Brown on Tuesday urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to be careful about tightening monetary policy so much that millions of Americans already suffering from high inflation also lose their jobs.

“It is your job to combat inflation, but at the same time, you must not lose sight of your responsibility to ensure that we have full employment,” Brown said in the letter, also addressed to the Fed’s Board of Governors and released publicly by Brown’s office. “We must avoid having our short-term advances and strong labor market overwhelmed by the consequences of aggressive monetary actions to decrease inflation, especially when the Fed’s actions do not address its main drivers.”

Fed policymakers are widely expected to deliver a fourth straight supersized interest-rate hike when they meet next week, bringing the policy rate to 3.75%-4% as part of what has been the sharpest set of rate increases in about 40 years.

Brown’s letter did not explicitly ask Powell or the Fed to slow or stop rate hikes, though it did urge “continued caution” in light of the synchronized monetary policy tightening by central banks around the world and Russia’s war in Ukraine among other factors posing the “real possibility of worsening the global economic situation.”

Powell for his part has nodded to those risks and to the likelihood that raising borrowing costs will lead to a rise in unemployment, now at a historically low 3.5%.

But he has also argued that beating inflation – running at more than three times the Fed’s 2% target – is the only way to ensure long-term labor market strength.

Brown’s letter to Powell comes as his fellow Democrats across the country battle to maintain their razor-thin majority in the Senate, with a particularly closely watched race in Ohio, Brown’s home state. The elections take place a week after the Fed’s meeting.

Republicans blame Democrats’ pandemic aid and other policies for high inflation and say they will do a better job with the economy; Democrats have blamed rising prices on greedy corporations and supply chains.

Fed policymakers say the research shows inflation is being driven both by sky-high demand and supply constraints, and that regardless of the cause, they are committed to doing what they can to bring it down.

Brown’s letter is unlikely to sway them from that view, though they are expected to at least begin talking about slowing rate hikes when they gather Nov. 1-2.

Still, Brown’s missive underscores the political backdrop against which the Fed operates, much as policymakers try to stay out of politics and say their very effectiveness depends on political independence.

“I ask that you don’t forget your responsibility to promote maximum employment and that the decisions you make at the next FOMC meeting reflect your commitment to the dual mandate,” Brown wrote.

(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Aurora Ellis)

By Lucia Mutikani

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer confidence ebbed in October after two straight monthly increases amid rising concerns about inflation and a possible recession next year, but households remained keen to purchase big-ticket items like motor vehicles and appliances.

The Conference Board survey on Tuesday also showed more consumers planned to buy a home over the next six months, despite soaring borrowing costs. The steady rise in consumers’ buying intentions could provide some stability for the economy in the near-term.

But there are signs that the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes are starting to cool the labor market, with a decline in the share of consumers viewing jobs as “plentiful” and a rise in those saying employment was “hard to get.”

“The biggest risk is the unknown lagged effects from the Fed’s cumulative tightening and the economy may not feel the full effects until next year when recession risks are high,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina.

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell to 102.5 this month from 107.8 in September. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 106.5. The decline in confidence was across all age groups, but more pronounced in the 35-54 and well as the 55 and over cohorts.

Regionally, there were marked decreases in Florida, probably because of Hurricane Ian, and Ohio. Consumers’ 12-month inflation expectations rose to 7.0%, likely reflecting a recent reversal in gasoline prices after falling over the summer, from 6.8% last month. Food also remains very expensive.

Stubbornly high inflation and fading confidence are a blow to President Joe Biden and Democrats’ hopes of retaining control of Congress in Nov. 8 mid-term elections.

The Fed, fighting the fastest-rising inflation in 40 years, has raised its benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero in March to the current range of 3.00% to 3.25%, the swiftest pace of policy tightening in a generation or more. That rate is likely to end the year in the mid-4% range, based on the U.S. central bank officials’ own projections and recent comments.

The survey’s present situation index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, tumbled to 138.9, the lowest level since April 2021, from 150.2 in September.

Its expectations index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell to 78.1 from 79.5 last month. The expectations index remains below a reading of 80, a level associated with a recession and suggests that the risks of a downturn could be rising.

The survey’s so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents’ views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, dropped to 32.5, the lowest reading since April 2021, from 38.1 in September.

This measure correlates to the unemployment rate from the Labor Department and is still high by historical standards. Unemployment benefits data show the labor market remains tight.

Stocks on Wall Street were trading higher. The dollar fell against a basket of currencies. U.S. Treasury prices rose.

SPENDING PLANS RISE

Even as consumers worried about the economy’s outlook, they remained interested in buying big-ticket items over the next six months, though they pulled back on travel plans, suggesting many Americans intended to stay home over the holiday season.

The share of consumers planning to buy motor vehicles increased to the highest level since July 2020. More consumers planned to buy appliances such as refrigerators, washing machines and vacuum cleaners.

“Consumers have abundant excess saving and they are willing to dig into this pile of cash to keep their real spending at least stable, even as inflation eats into their real incomes,” said Scott Hoyt, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

Consumers were also more inclined to buy a house, probably encouraged by a sharp slowdown in house price inflation.

But surging mortgage rates remain an obstacle. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.94% last week, the highest in 20 years, up from 6.92% in the prior week, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac.

A separate report on Tuesday showed the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller national home price index increased 13.0% year-on-year in August after advancing 15.6% in July. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.9% in August, the second straight monthly drop.

A third report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed home prices increased 11.9% in the 12 months through August after rising 13.9% in July. Prices fell 0.7% on a monthly basis after decreasing 0.6% in July. It was the first time since March 2011 that monthly prices posted back-to-back declines.

“We expect home price inflation to slow in the remainder of 2022, falling to single digits by year-end and to zero by the second quarter of 2023,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “With home sales falling as deteriorating affordability sidelines many buyers, prices will have to adjust. However, inventory remains low, and we think that will keep a floor under home prices.”

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Andrea Ricci)

By Marianna Parraga, Mayela Armas and Matt Spetalnick

WASHINGTON/CARACAS (Reuters) -Venezuelan politicians are discussing proposals for a fund that could release over $3 billion to provide humanitarian aid to Venezuela through the United Nations, in a process that also involves officials from the U.S. State and Treasury Departments, according to nine people close to the talks.

The proposals offer a potential way to revive stalled political dialogue in Venezuela, and come as more Venezuelans try to reach the United States, creating clashes among U.S. politicians over immigration.

Migrants arriving at the U.S.-Mexico border are prompting discussions on unfreezing Venezuelan funds held in foreign banks that would provide needed food and medicine, the sources told Reuters. The sources were not authorized to speak publicly on the topic.

According to the National Survey of Living Conditions (ENCOVI), conducted by Venezuelan universities, 94% of Venezuelans were living last year in poverty, while over half experienced moderate to severe food insecurity.

Some analysts and rights groups have said U.S. and Western sanctions have exacerbated the country’s deep economic crisis.

In 2019, the United States under former President Donald Trump and other Western countries imposed sanctions on Venezuela to block President Nicolas Maduro’s government from accessing oil revenue, freezing billions of dollars in Venezuela-government owned accounts overseas.

Washington and some European allies see the move of releasing the funds as essential to secure a “social agreement” between Venezuela’s government and its political opposition, the sources said.

The U.S. State and Treasury departments and Venezuela’s information ministry did not reply to requests for comment.

The United Nations continues to urge Venezuela and the opposition to engage in “an inclusive and meaningful dialogue that leads to negotiated solutions, with human rights as a central component,” said spokesman Stephane Dujarric. He did not comment on whether the U.N. has agreed to manage an aid program.

“Resource mobilization remains a key challenge,” he said, adding plans for 2022-2023 aid are 16.5% funded, and the U.N. is calling for support.

U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson told Reuters that any discussions on providing humanitarian aid to Venezuelans is being led by Venezuelans. “We stand ready, consistent with U.S. law, to calibrate our sanctions policy on the basis of a Venezuelan-led process.”

President Joe Biden’s administration has said any sanction easing on Venezuela would only come after Maduro moves in a concrete way to restore democracy.

HUNTING FOR MONEY

A U.N.-administered fund first was proposed by Maduro in 2020, when he called for a “legally binding international instrument on development” to overcome poverty and inequality. Later, he has tried unsuccessfully to release funds around the globe.

Maduro’s calls did not stir action amid Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy to oust him.

Washington has provided $1.94 billion in humanitarian aid to Venezuela and nations sheltering Venezuelans since 2017, but the money has done little to curb migration with over 6 million Venezuelans fleeing the country.

The new fund could face opposition from some hardliners in the U.S. Congress who support continued pressure on Maduro. It also has some in Venezuela’s opposition parties worried about the political impact of releasing funds that Maduro could claim credit for ahead of a potential 2024 presidential election.

The Department of Homeland Security is now only allowing entry from Venezuela or a third country for applicants with family members living legally in the United States.

U.S officials have argued the aid fund could keep Venezuelans from fleeing by improving living conditions through better access to food, medicine and health care, and financing infrastructure projects to fix Venezuela’s unstable power grid, the sources said.

The United Nations drafted a first proposal to oversee the fund in mid-October, the sources told Reuters. U.S. officials and opposition leaders have since tapped international development banks, think tanks and experts to study proposals.

The launch date and many details remain uncertain. But the fund could be publicly disclosed once envoys from Maduro and the opposition progress in Mexico towards presidential elections, two of the people said.

Opposition envoys discussed the aid package with U.S. officials during their meetings last week in Washington, four of the sources said. U.S. officials also approached Maduro’s government on the topic, according to two others.

The possibility of Venezuelan money flowing again for imports and investments is drawing attention from creditors and holders of Venezuelan debt.

Organizations, including the Inter-American Development Bank and the Development Bank of Latin America, which have helped handle funds or contributed to key aid projects in other nations, are among Venezuela’s creditors. There are billions of dollars in loans and credit lines that have gone unpaid.

For the United Nations, it could become one of the largest funds ever handled, even though the total amount that could be legally released is not clear.

(By Marianna Parraga and Matt Spetalnick in Washington and Mayela Armas in Caracas; Additional reporting by Michelle Nichols, Daphne Psaledakis and Humeyra Pamuk; Editing by Gary McWilliams, Aurora Ellis and Lincoln Feast)

By Echo Wang

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Mobileye Global Inc, the self-driving unit of chip maker Intel Corp, raised $861 million in an initial public offering (IPO), braving the trading volatility that has thwarted stock-market hopefuls, the company said on Tuesday. 

Mobileye said in a press release it has priced 41 million shares at $21 per share. The company had previously guided the IPO could be priced at between $18 and $20 per share.

The IPO values Mobileye at $16.7 billion, a far cry from the $50 billion valuation that Intel was initially hoping to achieve.

Mobileye is selling only a 5% stake in itself, less than the typical 10% to 20% stake for most IPOs. This limits the financial hit it will take as a result of its lower valuation.

U.S. IPOs are having one of their worst years on record, with traditional offerings on track to raise the least money in over two decades, according to Dealogic which tracks listing data going back to 1995. The Renaissance IPO index, which captures the largest and most liquid U.S IPOs, has slumped 51.4% this year, compared with the S&P 500 index’s drop of 19.54%.

The Cboe Volatility Index, Wall Street’s fear gauge, is hovering around 29. VIX readings above 20 are generally associated with an elevated sense of investor anxiety about the near-term outlook for stocks.

FROZEN MARKETS

Hundreds of companies have postponed IPO plans this year due to volatility in capital markets. Earlier in October, grocery delivery startup Instacart scrapped its plans to go public this year.

Intel Chief Executive Officer Pat Gelsinger has defended Mobileye’s decision to push ahead with an IPO, saying the listing was a way to “move (Mobileye) into the market”.

Intel will retain a large stake, including all the Class B shares Mobileye plans to issue, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Each Class B share will have voting rights equivalent to 10 Class A shares.

Mobileye reported $854 million in revenue for the first six months of the fiscal year, up 21% from same period last year. The company posted a net loss of $67 million.

Mobileye first went public in 2014 at a roughly $5 billion valuation, before Intel acquired it for $15.3 billion in 2017.

Mobileye’s shares are scheduled to start trading on Wednesday on the Nasdaq under the symbol “MBLY”.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Morgan Stanley are the lead underwriters for the offering.

(Reporting by Echo Wang in New York; Additional reporting by Maria Ponnezhath; Editing by Greg Roumeliotis, David Gregorio and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

By Jonathan Landay

NEAR KHERSON FRONTLINE, Ukraine (Reuters) – Russia on Tuesday took its case to the U.N. Security Council that Ukraine is preparing to use a “dirty bomb” on its own territory, an assertion dismissed by Western and Ukrainian officials as misinformation and a pretext for intensifying the war.

Moscow sent a letter detailing the allegations to the United Nations on Monday, and Russia raised the issue at a closed meeting with the Security Council.

“We’re quite satisfied because we raised the awareness,” Russia’s Deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy told reporters. “I don’t mind people saying that Russia is crying wolf if this doesn’t happen because this is a terrible, terrible disaster that threatens potentially the whole of the Earth.”

He said the evidence was in intelligence information that had been shared with Western counterparts with the “necessary level of clearance.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday repeated Russia’s allegations and said the West was foolish to dismiss them.

They follow hints from Moscow that it might be forced to use a tactical nuclear weapon against Ukraine, whose president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said the dirty bomb allegation showed Moscow was planning such an attack and seeking to blame Kyiv.

With Ukrainian forces advancing into Russian-occupied Kherson province, threatening a major defeat for Moscow, Russian officials phoned their Western counterparts on Sunday and Monday to air their suspicions.

Russia accused the Kyiv government of ordering two organisations to create a dirty bomb, an explosive device laced with radioactive material, without giving any evidence.

France, Britain and the United States said the allegations were “transparently false” and Washington warned Russia there would be “severe consequences” for any nuclear use.

“Russia would be making an incredibly serious mistake for it (to) use a tactical nuclear weapon,” U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday. “I’m not guaranteeing you that it’s a false flag operation yet, we don’t know. But it would be a serious mistake.”

INSPECTORS

Britain’s Deputy U.N. Ambassador James Kariuki told reporters: “This is pure Russian misinformation of the kind of we’ve seen many times before and it should stop.”

Russia’s defence ministry said the aim of a dirty bomb attack by Ukraine would be to blame Moscow for the radioactive contamination, which it said Russia had begun preparing for.

In an apparent response to Moscow’s allegation, the U.N. nuclear watchdog said it was preparing to send inspectors to two unidentified Ukrainian sites at Kyiv’s request, both already subject to its inspections.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told reporters the inspectors would receive full access, and he called on Moscow to demonstrate the same transparency as Ukraine.

Russia’s state news agency RIA has identified what it said were the two sites involved – the Eastern Mineral Enrichment Plant in the central Dnipropetrovsk region and the Institute for Nuclear Research in Kyiv.

President Vladimir Putin has not spoken publicly about the dirty bomb allegations but on Tuesday said Russia needed to streamline decision-making in what it calls its “special military operation” to rid its neighbour of extremists. Ukraine and its allies accuse Moscow of an unprovoked war to grab territory.

Putin, speaking at the first meeting of a new council to manage the government’s work, said increased coordination of government structures and regions was necessary.

MORE HELP FOR UKRAINE?

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier arrived in Ukraine on Tuesday on his first visit since Russia invaded on Feb. 24 as Berlin hosted what it said was a conference on a “Marshall Plan” to rebuild Ukraine, a reference to the U.S. initiative to rebuild Western Europe at the end of World War Two.

Thousands have been killed, and homes and factories destroyed, since Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

Since Russian forces suffered major defeats in September, Putin has doubled down, calling up hundreds of thousands of reservists, announcing the annexation of occupied territory and repeatedly threatening to use nuclear weapons.

Steinmeier said Berlin was working to help Ukraine with air defence equipment and would focus on assisting with repairs to infrastructure such as power grids before winter arrives.

Zelenskiy told the Berlin conference via video link that Russian rockets and Iranian-made drones had destroyed more than a third of his country’s energy sector, but that Kyiv had yet to receive “a single cent” for a recovery plan worth $17 billion.

The European Commission urged EU countries and companies to donate more to Ukraine’s energy sector.

“When we win this war, history will remember those who stood by our side in our darkest hour as well as those who openly supported the aggressor,” the Ukrainian Defence Ministry said in a tweet. “But most of all, it will remember those who stood idly by and pretended they didn’t see a genocide happening in the middle of Europe.”

In southern Ukraine, Russia has ordered civilians in Kherson to evacuate territory it controls on the western bank of the Dnipro River, where Ukrainian forces have been advancing this month after Russia claimed to have annexed the area.

A defeat for Russia there would be one of its biggest setbacks in the conflict.

A Reuters reporter in a remote hamlet near part of the Kherson frontline heard neither artillery nor shooting.

Residents in the village, which cannot be identified under Ukrainian military regulations, said they hoped Russian forces who had shelled them in the past would soon withdraw.

“You fall asleep at night and you don’t know if you will wake up,” said Mikola Nizinets, 39, as dozens of villagers waited to collect water, food packets and simple wood-burning stoves delivered by aid volunteers.

With no power or gas and little food or potable water in the area, many residents have fled, abandoning cattle to roam among expended munitions poking from the soil.

(Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Doina Chiacu, Andrew Osborn, Nick Macfie and Grant McCool; Editing by Philippa Fletcher, William Maclean and Cynthia Osterman)