(Reuters) -The big six U.S. banks face a tough second quarter earnings season due to a hit from increased loan loss reserves, as the pandemic recovery gives way to a possible recession.

Though consumer spending trends remain strong, the looming threat of a recession and soaring inflation are expected to test the strength of U.S. consumers and companies.

Below is an outline of how banks have managed their reserves since 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic forced them to set aside billions of dollars to account for potential loan losses, most of which did not materalize thanks to government stimulus packages.

JPMorgan Chase & Co

Quarter Reserves/p Reserves/p

rovisions rovisions

released built

Q1 2022 $902

million

Q4 2021 $1.8 –

billion

Q3 2021 $2.1 –

billion

Q2 2021 $3 billion –

Q1 2021 $5.2 –

billion

Q4 2020 $2.9 –

billion

Q3 2020 $569 –

million

Q2 2020 – $8.9

billion

Q1 2020 – $6.8

billion

Bank of America Corp

Quarter Reserves/p Reserves/p

rovisions rovisions

released built

Q1 2022 $362 –

million

Q4 2021 $851 –

million

Q3 2021 $1.1 –

billion

Q2 2021 $2.2 –

billion

Q1 2021 $2.7 –

billion

Q4 2020 $828 –

million

Q3 2020 – $417

million

Q2 2020 – $4 billion

Q1 2020 – $3.6

billion

Goldman Sachs Group Inc

Quarter Reserves/p Reserves/p

rovisions rovisions

released built

Q1 2022 – $561

million

Q4 2021 – $344

million

Q3 2021 – $175

million

Q2 2021 $92 –

million

Q1 2021 $70 –

million

Q4 2020 – $293

million

Q3 2020 – $278

million

Q2 2020 – $1.6

billion

Q1 2020 – $937

million

Citigroup Inc

Quarter Reserves/p Reserves/p

rovisions rovisions

released built

Q1 2022 $138 –

million

Q4 2021 $1.4 –

billion

Q3 2021 $1.2 –

billion

Q2 2021 $2.4 –

billion

Q1 2021 $3.9 –

billion

Q4 2020 $1.5 –

billion

Q3 2020 – $436

million

Q2 2020 – $5.6

billion

Q1 2020 – $4.9

billion

Wells Fargo & Co

Quarter Reserves/p Reserves/p

rovisions rovisions

released built

Q1 2022 $787 –

million

Q4 2021 $452 –

million

Q3 2021 $1.4 –

billion

Q2 2021 $1.26 –

billion

Q1 2021 $1.05 –

billion

Q4 2020 $179 –

million

Q3 2020 – $769

million

Q2 2020 – $9.5

billion

Q1 2020 – $4 billion

Morgan Stanley

Quarter Reserves/p Reserves/p

rovisions rovisions

released built

Q1 2022 – $57

million

Q4 2021 – $5 million

Q3 2021 – $24

million

Q2 2021 – $73

million

Q1 2021 $98 –

million

Q4 2020 – $4 million

Q3 2020 – $111

million

Q2 2020 – $239

million

Q1 2020 – $407

million

(Reporting by Manya Saini and Niket Nishant in Bengaluru, editing by Deepa Babington)

By David Henry

NEW YORK -Second quarter profits at big U.S. banks are expected to fall sharply from a year earlier on increased loan loss reserves, as the pandemic recovery gives way to a possible recession.

Analysts expect JPMorgan Chase & Co will report a 25% drop in profit on Thursday, while Citigroup Inc and Wells Fargo & Co will show 38% and 42% profit declines, respectively on Friday, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data.

Bank of America Corp, which like its peers has big consumer and business lending franchises, is expected to show a 29% drop in profit when it reports on July 18.

The plunge in profit stems from lenders adding to their reserves for expected loan losses, a reversal from a year earlier when they benefited from reducing those cushions as anticipated pandemic losses failed to materialize and the economy strengthened.

“Its going to be a shaky quarter for the sector,” said Jason Ware, chief investment officer for Albion Financial Group, which owns shares of JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley.

Investors will want to hear executives’ insights into the health of the economy and if borrowers are “more shaky now,” Ware said.

Banks must factor the economic outlook into loan loss reserves under an accounting standard which took effect in January 2020.

While data on Friday showed the U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in June, it could still be on the verge of a recession. Gross domestic product contracted in the first quarter, with tepid consumer spending and manufacturing readings in the last two weeks.

TIME TO BUILD UP

Last month, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned of an economic “hurricane,” while Morgan Stanley CEO James Gorman has said there is a 50% chance of a recession.

“The banks are going to have to build up their reserves,” said Gerard Cassidy, a bank analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

JPMorgan, Citi, Wells Fargo and Bank of America, the country’s largest four lenders, could record $3.5 billion of loss provisions compared with $6.2 billion of benefits last year when they released reserves, Cassidy estimated.

As a result, the banks’ bottom lines will look worse than their underlying businesses. Pre-provision, pre-tax profits for the big four will be down only 7%, according to estimates by analysts led by Jason Goldberg at Barclays.

To be sure, banks are also adding to reserves for additional loans they have been making as companies have started to borrow more and consumers have been using credit cards to travel and eat out again. And actual loan losses and delinquency rates are still near record lows.

But bank executives have said more loans will go bad. Analysts will press the banks for clues on the timing and magnitude and how much they might eventually offset gains in net interest income – the difference between banks’ cost of funds and the interest they receive.

Net interest income growth is the highest it has been in a decade, powered by loan growth and higher interest rates, said Goldberg. Net interest income rose 14% in the second quarter, on average, for the four biggest banks, he estimates.

“You have really strong loan growth and very low loan losses,” he added.

But a severe recession could cause actual loan losses and negate such gains, said Cassidy.

WALL STREET WIPEOUT

Morgan Stanley, the sixth-biggest U.S. bank by assets and a major Wall Street player and investment manager, also reports on Thursday and is expected to show a 17% decline in profits.

The fifth-biggest bank, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., is expected to report a 51% profit drop when it reports on July 18.

Goldman, like Morgan Stanley, does less consumer and business lending than the four biggest banks and changes in its loan loss provisions are less important for profits.

But fees Goldman makes on deals, including stock and bond underwriting, are expected to be down sharply, partially offset by more trading revenue due to increased volatility. [L4N2YO3FW]

Mortgage business revenue is expected to decline as higher interest rates dampen home loan demand and refinancing.

Banks’ asset management businesses will also report lower revenue on lower stock and bond prices, Goldberg said.

(Reporting by David Henry in New York. Additional reporting by Megan Davies. Editing by Michelle Price and Deepa Babington)

By Divya Rajagopal

TORONTO -Rogers Communications complicated its chances of getting antitrust approval for a C$20 billion telecom merger after Friday’s massive outage highlighted the perils of Canada’s effective telecom monopoly and sparked a backlash against its industry dominance.

The Rogers network outage disrupted nearly every aspect of daily life, cutting banking, transport and government access for millions, and hitting the country’s cashless payments system and Air Canada’s call center.

Consumers and opposition politicians called on the government to allow more competition and enact policy changes to curb telecom companies’ power. Rogers, BCE Inc and Telus Corp control 90% of the market share in Canada.

Smaller internet and wireless providers rely on their infrastructure network to deliver their own services.

“The reality is in Canada there is a serious monopoly of our telecommunications,” New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh said in a TikTok video as he launched a petition to halt Rogers’ merger plans and “break up these monopolies”.

“The impact of this outage makes it clear this monopoly cannot continue,” he added.

Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne, calling the outage “unacceptable”, said on Sunday that he would meet with Rogers CEO Tony Staffieri and other industry executives to discuss improving the “reliability of networks across Canada.” High cellphone bills have been a hot-button issue in recent Canadian elections.

The disruption in internet access, cell phone and landline phone connections meant some callers could not reach emergency services via 911 calls, police across Canada said.

“Because of the Rogers outage, millions of Canadians couldn’t call 911 yesterday. Hospitals couldn’t call in staff. There was no way to call families so that they could say goodbye to their loved ones at end of life,” tweeted Amit Arya, director-at-large at the Canadian Society of Palliative Care Physicians.

Rogers, which blamed a router malfunction after maintenance for the disruption, said on Sunday it was aware that some customers were still facing disruptions. It did not comment on whether the outage could impact the merger proceedings.

Friday’s outage came two days after Rogers held talks with Canada’s antitrust authority to discuss possible remedies to its blocked C$20 billion ($15.34 billion) takeover of Shaw Communications.

Canada’s competition bureau blocked the deal earlier this year, saying it would hamper competition in a country where telecom rates are some of the world’s highest. The merger still awaits a final verdict.

The disruption could prompt the Competition Bureau, which generally assesses mergers based on their impact on price, to look more closely at other considerations such as quality and service, said consumer rights groups.

“It is a ‘non-price effect’ (argument) – that is, concentration of ownership and control of critical infrastructure making an ever more central point of failure to deliver basic services,” said John Lawford, executive director of the Ottawa-based Public Interest Advocacy Centre (PIAC), which has argued against the merger at the Competition Bureau.

But Vass Bedner, Executive Director of the Public Policy program in McMaster University, said the outage was a separate issue from Rogers’ merger plan.

“I don’t think this issue will impact the merger because I am not sure how the Competition Bureau can account for risk of bigger outage,” Bedner said.

University of Ottawa professor Michael Geist, who focuses on the internet and e-commerce law, said the outage “must be a wake-up for a government that has been asleep on digital policy.”

“The blame for Friday’s outage may lie with Rogers, but the government and (Canadian telecommunications regulator) should be held accountable for a failure to respond,” he wrote on his blog.

The outage, which began around 4:30 a.m. ET (0830 GMT) on Friday before service was fully restored on Saturday, knocked out a quarter of Canada’s observable internet connectivity, said the NetBlocks monitoring group.

The interruption was Rogers’ second in 15 months with an external software upgrade knocking out service primarily to consumer clients last year.

(Reporting by Divya Rajagopal; writing by Amran Abocar; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

SHANGHAI -A slump in commercial-vehicle demand led China’s automobile industry association on Monday to downgrade its sales forecast, as anti-pandemic measures weighed on the economy and its car market, the world’s largest.

The industry will sell 27 million cars this year, up 3% on 2021, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers forecast, cutting its outlook from the 27.5 million sales and 5.4% growth it predicted in December.

Weak demand for commercial vehicles, such as buses and trucks, drove the downgrade, data from the association showed. It now expects a 16% fall in sales of commercial vehicles to 4 million units.

Overall growth of around 3% compares with the 4.4% achieved in 2021 and the 1.9% fall of 2020.

The auto sector has been hit hard in recent months by efforts to combat COVID-19. The government has at times put many parts of the country, including Shanghai, under stringent lockdown.

Authorities have tried incentives to revive demand, with the central government last month halving purchase tax to 5% for cars priced at less than 300,000 yuan ($45,000) and with engines no larger than 2.0 litres.

Many policies have been aimed at encouraging sales of new-energy vehicles (NEVs). In May and June, some local governments began offering subsidies for trade-ins of gasoline vehicles for electric cars.

Some cities have also expanded quotas on car ownership.

Such policies helped create an annual rise in sales seen in June, following four months that showed falls. The industry sold 2.5 million vehicles in June, up 23.8% on a year earlier, the association said.

But the incentives had hardly helped commercial-vehicle demand, which was awaiting recovery of activity in logistics and infrastructure, sectors that needed more state support, Xu Haidong, the association’s deputy chief engineer, said at Monday’s regular press conference.

June sales were also up 34.4% from May, with sales of NEVs – among them electric, plug-in petrol-electric hybrids and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles – climbing 129.2% from a year before.

While it cut its annual projection for overall sales, the association revised up its forecast for NEVs, saying 5.5 million units would probably be sold, up more than 56% and compared with last year’s 47% growth. Passenger car sales for the year would likely rise about 7%.

Although June sales were buoyant, there are concerns that demand will once again be hit as COVID cases tick up with the arrival of the BA.5 Omicron subvariant in China and cities impose new restrictions.

China’s auto industry will also face persistent challenges of chip shortages and rising raw material costs, especially for electric-vehicle batteries, said Chen Shihua, deputy secretary-general of the association.

(Reporting by Zhang Yan and Brenda Goh; Editing by Clarence Fernandez and Bradley Perrett)

By Uditha Jayasinghe and Devjyot Ghoshal

COLOMBO -Sri Lanka’s central bank governor signalled on Monday he would stay in the job but warned that prolonged political instability in the country may delay progress on negotiations with the International Monetary Fund for a bailout package.

Governor P. Nandalal Weerasinghe, who has been holding bailout talks with the IMF since taking office in April, had told reporters in May he could resign if there was no political stability in the island nation of 22 million that is facing its worst economic crisis in seven decades.

President Gotabaya Rajapaksa plans to resign on Wednesday while Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe has also offered to quit, without specifying a date, to make way for a unity government. Thousands of protesters stormed their residences on Saturday and have vowed to stay put until the two leaders resigned.

“Political instability might delay the progress we have been making so far,” Weerasinghe said of the talks with the IMF during an interview with Reuters in his office, where chants from protesters occupying the president’s house nearby could be heard.

“I would like to have a stable political administration, the sooner the better, for us to make progress, mainly on the programmes we are negotiating with the IMF, bridging finance and also to address shortages of fuel, gas and other things.”

Asked if he would continue to steer the central bank, Weerasinghe said: “I have the responsibility once I have been appointed to serve for (a) six-year term.”

He also said negotiations were on for a $1 billion swap with the Reserve Bank of India. Sri Lanka received a $400 million swap from India in January and $1.5 billion in two credit lines after that.

“We have made a request for another $1 billion,” he said, adding the country was also in talks with India for an additional credit line of $500 million to import fuel.

Since Weerasinghe, 61, took over, the central bank has raised interest rates twice, including by an unprecedented 700 basis points in April, as inflation touched a year-on-year record of 54.6% in June and could soar to 70% in the coming months.

The IMF said on Sunday it was hoping for a resolution to the political turmoil to allow a resumption of talks for a bailout package. The government said last week it would present a debt restructuring plan to the fund by the end of August, in a bid to win approval for a four-year funding programme.

“At technical level we have almost agreed (with the IMF) but at policy level we need a higher-level commitment from a stable administration,” the governor said.

Sri Lanka suspended repayments on about $12 billion of foreign debt in April and it still had payments of nearly $21 billion due by the end of 2025.

(Reporting by Uditha Jayasinghe and Devjyot Ghoshal; Writing by Krishna N. Das; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Muralikumar Anantharaman)

(Reuters) -Duty-free retailer Dufry has agreed to buy Italian airport and motorway caterer Autogrill, creating a travel industry giant to take advantage of growth opportunities as the sector rebounds, the companies said on Monday.

Italy’s Benetton family – Autogrill’s largest investor – will transfer its entire 50.3% stake to Dufry, which will offer to buy out minority stakeholders, with the Benetton’s holding company Edizione then becoming the combined group’s biggest shareholder with a stake of 20-25%.

“The combination of the two groups will create a new leader in travel experience and allow us to significantly increase our presence in core markets, such as the U.S., and in the travel food and beverage sector,” Dufry Chairman Juan Carlos Torres said in the companies’ statement.

“This transaction will strengthen our balance sheet, reduce our leverage and create meaningful synergies.”

At Friday’s market prices, the two companies had a total market capitalisation of about $5.5 billion.

Dufry CEO Xavier Rossinyol will lead the combined group, Torres keeping his role in the new company.

The transfer of the Benetton family’s stake, held through Edizione, will be at a ratio of 0.158 new Dufry shares for each Autogrill share, the groups said in a statement.

The offer represents a discount of 25-30% to trading prices on Friday, Rossinyol said on a call with reporters.

Dufry’s subsequent tender for remaining Autogrill shares will offer 0.158 new Dufry shares for each Autogrill share or 6.33 euros ($6.43) per Autogrill share.

Dufry shares rose 6.2% in early trade while Autogrill stock fell 8%.

“We welcome the deal announcement as the business combination of both companies represents a complementary strategic fit and will support Dufry’s new long-term strategy,” Baader Helvea analyst Volker Bosse wrote in a client note.

The combined entity will be given a new name and the deal is expected to complete in the second quarter of next year.

Dufry said the combined company will cater to 2.3 billion passengers in more than 75 countries, generating revenue of 13.6 billion Swiss francs ($13.90 billion) and core earnings of 1.4 billion Swiss francs.

Autogrill’s current CEO Gianmario Tondato da Ruos will take on the position of executive chairman of the new group’s North American business and Edizione Chairman Alessandro Benetton will join as honorary chairman.

The companies had confirmed they were in non-exclusive talks in late June.

Basel-based Dufry operates about 2,200 shops at airports, cruise liners, seaports and other tourist locations worldwide.

Dufry’s organic sales more than doubled in the first quarter of 2022, driven by a strong rebound in European travel as coronavirus curbs eased. However, organic sales were still 40% below pre-pandemic levels in 2019.

For the second quarter net sales were down about 17% compared with 2019 and first-half sales were down about 25% from 2019, Dufry said.

Autogrill runs bars, cafes and restaurants at 139 airports internationally, including 80 in North America, as well as on motorways in Europe.

UBS and Credit Suisse acted as financial advisers to Dufry, with BofA Securities acting for Edizione.

Citigroup Global Markets Europe AG, Intesa Sanpaolo and Mediobanca were financial advisers for Autogrill.

($1 = 0.9843 euros)

($1 = 0.9783 Swiss francs)

(Reporting by Maria Ponnezhath and Brenna Hughes NeghaiwiAdditional reporting by Giulia SegretiEditing by David Goodman)

By Tim Hepher

PARIS -Europe’s Airbus has revised up its forecast for jet deliveries over the next 20 years as soaring fuel bills prompt airlines to seek new, more fuel-efficient planes.

Despite the war in Ukraine and a spike in inflation, Airbus edged up its average forecast for annual GDP growth to 2.6% from 2.5% in its latest 20-year outlook published on Monday.

But it saw passenger traffic growing more slowly than before, by 3.6% a year rather than 3.9% forecast in November.

That’s partly the result of higher energy and carbon prices that push up fares.

But it believes a spike in energy costs will also encourage many airlines to accelerate deliveries of fuel-saving models.

Airbus predicts total deliveries of 39,490 jets over the next 20 years, up from 39,020 forecast previously.

The increase is partly due to 2021 dropping out of the rolling 20-year forecast period, an exceptionally weak year depressed by the pandemic.

It expects deliveries to include 38,600 passenger jets – up from 38,140 previously forecast – and 890 freighters, up from 880.

Airbus still expects air traffic to recover to pre-pandemic levels some time between 2023 and 2025, as the industry faces pressures from inflation to rises in energy prices as well as the risk of further outbreaks of variants of COVID-19.

However, the planemaker expects its best and worst case scenarios for traffic to regain 2019 levels some six months later than its previous forecast, according to charts supplied with the data.

CARBON COST

For the second time in three years, Airbus has changed the way it breaks down jet demand, this time into two categories – “typically single-aisle” which includes its A320neo or Boeing’s 737 MAX and accounts for 31,620 projected deliveries, and “typically wide-body” jets which account for 7,870 units.

It had previously tracked “small, medium and large” sizes.

For the first time, Airbus is building in the transition to sustainable aviation fuel and recognising the cost of carbon in its forecasts, which may subject airlines to growing differences in energy bills depending on where they operate.

Still, it expects upward pressure on energy prices and inflation to ease somewhat by the middle of the decade.

Demand from Asia, which has been a driving force in aerospace for over a decade, is fractionally lower than in the planemaker’s previous forecast. But it still makes up 45% of the projected 20-year deliveries at 17,580 passenger and cargo jets.

China remains poised to overtake the United States as the world’s busiest aviation market in coming years.

But the pace of growth is dominated by India, whose domestic market is seen growing by an average 6.6% a year over the next two decades, more than three times the U.S. average of 2.1%.

With aviation growing from a low base, however, Indian consumers will still be making fewer trips by air in 2041 than Americans took in 2019, according to Airbus data.

Also leading growth in the next 20 years will be travel between the Indian Subcontinent and Africa and between the world’s two largest economies, China and the United States.

The Indian Subcontinent is also home to the fastest growing air freight markets, with traffic to or from both China and the United States expected to grow by at least 7.3% a year.

About half the world’s cargo by value goes by air and the sector has been booming as companies shore up supply chains. Airbus sees freight traffic growing on average by 3.2% a year.

(Reporting by Tim HepherEditing by Howard Goller and Mark Potter)

(Reuters) – The dollar’s 12% year-to-date rise has raised global concern, and will surely be debated when G20 policymakers meet on July 15-16. All the more so, if it vaults to parity against the euro for the first time in 20 years.

British politics, Chinese lockdowns, U.S. banks’ results and central bank hawks also bear watching.

Here is your look at the week ahead in markets from Dhara Ranasinghe, Tommy Wilkes and Sujata Rao in London, Jamie McGeever in Orlando and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo.

1/ DOLLAR, WE BOW TO YOU

Europe’s single currency is the dollar’s latest victim. Now at 20-year lows around $1.014, it could soon eyeball parity, hit by the dollar’s broad safe-haven appeal but also by surging gas prices that have fanned recession risks in the euro area.

Wednesday’s data, expected to show headline U.S. inflation rising 8.7% year-on-year in June versus May’s 8.6%, could cement bets on another hefty Federal Reserve rate hike and lift the dollar further.

G20 finance ministers and central bankers, meeting July 15-16 in Bali, are watching. Tightening financial conditions have cratered markets, and with the dollar so strong, a kind of ‘reverse currency war’ is under way, where countries prefer stronger exchange rates to dampen inflation.

Euro/dollar heading towards parity? https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/egpbkgzoevq/euro0707.PNG

US financial conditions https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/egpbkgredvq/Pasted%20image%201657141636405.png

2/ WEST(MINSTER) WING

The resignation of Britain’s scandal-ridden Prime Minister Boris Johnson, means the world’s fifth-biggest economy is further adrift just as sterling hovers near two-year lows and Britons endure the worst cost-of-living squeeze in decades.

But if the Westminster drama is dominating TV screens, markets have sat quietly watching from the sidelines. That may change once the new government’s priorities become clear.

Nadhim Zahawi, appointed finance minister just days ago, may review some tax hike plans and could cut others. But while loosening the purse strings may support sterling, it could inflame inflation, already seen heading past 11%.

May GDP numbers on Wednesday will likely reinforce the growth gloom but don’t discount the potential for the Westminster chaos to hit markets.

UK GDP https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/lbvgnxkyxpq/Pasted%20image%201657140705736.png

3/ ON WALL STREET

U.S. banks kick off second-quarter earnings and it’s not looking pretty. Yes, higher interest rates are helpful but economic growth is also slowing.

So while Refinitiv I/B/E/S estimates show overall S&P 500 earnings growing an annualised 6% in Q2, financials are expected to rack up a 20% drop in earnings.

Much of that decline stems from worsening outlooks for loan losses, as interest-rate rises increase the risk of borrower defaults. Accounting standards require banks to factor macro-economic views into loss provisions, and thus results.

Fee income could stutter, too, brokerage Wedbush predicts, citing pressure from mortgages and capital markets revenue.

Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan kick off earnings Thursday, followed by Citi, State Street and Wells Fargo the next day.

Overall, Q2 results should shed light on the outlook for profit margins, input costs and hiring. And listen out for what company bosses say about a potential recession.

U.S. Q2 earnings growth https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-MARKETS/THEMES/lbpgnxqjjvq/chart.png

4/ COUNTING THE COVID COST

Weeks after lifting an oppressive two-month lockdown, China is racing to contain a cluster of COVID cases centred on a Shanghai karaoke lounge. With new cases flaring, mass testing and fresh activity curbs have been introduced.

The economic cost of draconian zero-COVID policies will come into relief on Friday, when China releases second-quarter GDP figures.

Economists say the official 5.5% GDP target is out of reach, but President Xi Jinping remains committed to the zero-COVID policies, choosing “temporary” economic costs over endangering lives.

    Macau shut all its casinos for the first time in more than two years on Monday, sending shares in gaming firms tumbling as authorities struggle to contain the worst coronavirus outbreak yet in the world’s biggest gambling hub.

Investors are concerned. Shanghai stocks have paused their five-week winning streak, while growth fears have sent iron ore to its lowest level for the year.   

China GDP https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zdvxoeloopx/Pasted%20image%201657181540073.png

5/ HALF-POINT CLUB

When even central banking doves such as Switzerland raise interest rates by half a percent, the Royal Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand can hardly opt for 25 basis-point moves.

The RBNZ has already raised rates five times straight to 2%. Given it projects rates to double to 4% in the coming year, analysts reckon it will deliver another half-point move on July 13.

The same day, the Bank of Canada could lift rates by 75 bps to 2.25%, having delivered back-to-back 50 bps hikes. That would be its biggest move since 1998.

But watch for hints that rate hikes may slow. New Zealand business confidence is worsening and housing markets are softening. Canada, meanwhile, is assigned a 35% chance of recession over the coming year.

Rate-hike checklist https://graphics.reuters.com/GLOBAL-MARKETS/mypmnremyvr/chart.png

(Compiled by Sujata Rao; Editing by Sonali Desai)

(Reuters) -Japanese airline ANA Holdings Inc said on Monday it had finalised an order for 20 Boeing 737 MAX jets first announced in January 2019 that also includes options for another 10 of the narrowbody type.

The carrier also said it would switch two of 20 777-9 passenger planes it has on order to the 777-8F freighter model as part of efforts to expand its cargo business.

The 737 MAX planes, intended to replace older 737-800 jets on domestic routes, will be delivered from the financial year starting in April 2025, the airline said in a statement.

ANA did not provide the value of the deal. The order for 20 737 MAX 8 planes would be worth $2.4 billion based on Boeing’s latest list prices available on its website, but airlines typically receive substantial discounts on orders.

ANA had placed its initial non-binding order for the planes two months before the 737 MAX was grounded globally after a second deadly crash.

The Japanese airline noted that 46 airlines worldwide have resumed 737 MAX flights since the United States lifted a grounding order in November 2020 and the model has been operating smoothly.

(Reporting by Jamie Freed in Sydney; Editing by Tom Hogue and Muralikumar Anantharaman)