Column-Rock and hard place? China opts to hold yuan: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – China’s seeming determination to hold the yuan stable in the face of a deflationary asset price bust and capital …
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Column-Markets won’t give up on March Fed cut: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – If the first cut is the deepest, timing will be everything. For all the rhetorical pushback from officials, markets …
Column-Searching for rift in Transatlantic easing :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – After six months of churning interest rate speculation, few now doubt 2024 will see the three major Transatlantic central …
Column-Relentless outperformance and inertia feed US home bias: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – For all the valuation and diversification arguments routinely touted, bitter and sweet experience tells U.S. investors to stay at …
Column-Elections may tweak sequencing of 2024 rate cuts :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Few central bank watchers think the electoral cycle will change the course of monetary policy – but it could …
Speeding through ‘last mile’ of disinflation? :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) -What if the “last mile” is a breeze? Despite what seems like euphoria about disinflation and interest rate easing, it’s …
Column-Prep for churn as central banks leave runway unlit: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Hold on to your hats. Central banks appear in no mind to rehabilitate the forward policy guidance prevalent before …
Column-Global pension funds now balking at China: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Even allowing for China’s messy cyclical ebb and flow and global political tensions of the day, the exit of …
Column-Holy Trinity for 2024 markets that requires some faith: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – With a rosy picture of stock and bond gains next year now the running consensus, forecasters are managing an …
Column-‘Risk-free risk’ re-emerges as bonds minesweep 5%-plus – Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – To say investors were unprepared for 5% U.S. Treasury yields is perhaps the market understatement of the year – …
Bond quake sees doubling down on the shadows :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) -The expanding shadows of private credit seem an odd place to lurk if central banks’ ‘higher-for-longer’ mantra on interest rates …
Column-Odd bond calm loosening Fed squeeze: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – An eerie calm in U.S. Treasuries seems at odds with uncertainty about the end of the harshest tightening cycles …
Peak China gloom or geopolitical quagmire?: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) -Whether China has become “uninvestable” or not, avoidance of the world’s second-largest economy suggests the economic and political risks there …
Column-ECB starts shadow boxing with bond market :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – European Central Bank (ECB) officials seem irked that they are not being taken seriously by markets – risking a …
Column-September sees Fed dot plot thicken :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Markets appear to have batted away next month’s Federal Reserve gathering as a paused ‘also ran’ meeting in favor …
Column-Beware conflating ‘de-dollarisation’ with weaker dollar: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Even if the U.S. dollar’s singular dominance as global currency of choice is in fact ebbing, it may not …
Column-Sterling caught between rate spike and gilt rupture: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s interest rate horizon skyrocketed this week on another alarming inflation reading that some fear entrenches the economy as …
Column-Rehabilitating sterling: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Sterling’s been down so long, this looks like up to most people. Against the dark mood surrounding the British …
Column-Shadow bank boxing as money funds drain deposits :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Cash-like money funds could increasingly suck deposits from smaller U.S. banks until lagging bank savings rates are finally forced …
Column-Dollar’s smile looks a little lopsided :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar could do with some cheering up. According to the ‘dollar smile’ theory developed by currency expert and …
Column-QE sceptics fear Fed is in a hole :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – If this month’s U.S. banking stress owes at least something to the Federal Reserve’s reduction of its mammoth balance …
Column-Fed’s ‘R-star’ becomes black hole :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – After six weeks of frantic forecast changes, world markets seem to have lost the plot on where interest rates …
Rates market overshoot – or no man’s land? :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) -If skittish markets are just testing the extremes of possible central bank outcomes, policymakers who have bemoaned investor complacency for …
Column-Fed flags lags and summertime blues: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – If Fed steers on the time it takes interest rate hikes to hit the real economy are anything to …
Watch the dollar for de-globalisation :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) -The end of modern globalisation may owe more to the fortunes of the U.S. dollar than Kremlinologists, Sinologists or military …
Column-Faced down by Fed, markets dab 6% onto risk radar :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Market pricing tends to swing back and forth like a pendulum around eventual outcomes – and investors may now …
Column-Low visibility, low volatility make strange pairing :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Like mirages on the horizon, recession forecasts seem to be appearing and disappearing with great regularity – questioning any …
Column-Jumping the central bank gun :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – For all intents and purposes, financial markets think the brutal central bank tightening cycle is done. That may seem …
Column-Anxious Fedspeak disguises satisfaction :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – The Fed will loudly insist again on Wednesday that its inflation battle is not yet won – even as …
Column-Fed hangs tough as wage growth gets real again: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – If markets are wondering why the Federal Reserve just won’t play ball with their ‘peak interest rate’ pricing, the …
Column-Is Brazil another BRIC in the wall? :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Almost as surprising as the weekend’s shock events in Brasilia was how little world markets appeared to react – …
Column-Forecasts become a vortex of guesswork: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – It’s the time of year for financial and economic forecasting – but you may do as well ignoring them …
Column-Housing storm leaves UK exposed, skews policy: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – If financial markets bore the brunt of this year’s interest rate shock, housing now stands in the firing line. …
Fed may be alert to favoured yield curve alarm :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) -If the U.S. Federal Reserve tends to tighten hard until something breaks, as some investors still believe despite the central …
Column-Central bank guns spiked by bank windfall backlash: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Central banks may be forced to rethink and even undermine one of their prized emergency policy tools as popular …
Column-Markets map out the end of the line :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Yet another eye-catching rebound in global stocks may just be another bear market bounce – but investors do sense …
Column-G7 ‘recognizing’ FX disruption is damp squib :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Japan’s solo battle against an overvalued U.S. dollar may feel a little lonelier after it met G7 finance chiefs …
Column-Sterling needs the kindness of reserve managers :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Perhaps remarkably, some of the world’s major economies still hold at least part of their rainy-day savings in sterling …
Column-Dazed and confused enough to buy bonds: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – With prices falling like a stone as central bank tightening goes into overdrive, buying bonds may appear confused – …
G7 could give FX more attention: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Japan may seem like a lonely voice in the Group of Seven pleading for some currency calm, but the …
Murmurs of ‘sterling crisis’ no longer fanciful: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON (Reuters) – Even though fears of another “sterling crisis” have been wide of the mark for decades, they are harder to …
Column – Weary tolerance of Italian market volatility: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON – There’s a weary acceptance among investors of almost inevitable market volatility around Italy’s latest political upheaval – but that’s where …
Column: Extreme dollar a wake-up call for earnings outlook – Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON – The U.S. dollar’s rampant surge may finally force corporate America to wake up to a brewing earnings recession. The investment …
Buying the bear? Equity demand endured market pain: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON – It’s a hard habit to break. You’d be forgiven for thinking the worst two-quarter period for stock markets since 2009 …
Quadruple real rates? Ageing may turn to market headwind: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON – If you were hoping this was all a bad dream, take a deep breath. Many investors craving some return to …
Column-Upside down world of ‘reverse currency wars’ is real :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON – An upside down world of “reverse currency wars” is seeping into the real one. Devotees of Netflix hit “Stranger Things” …
Full force of central banks siphoning world liquidity: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON – Coordinated or not ahead of this month’s G7 summit, global central banks are accelerating interest rate hikes but also actively …
Fed shredding ‘forward guidance’ – for good or ill: Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON – If the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plans are changing week to week, then the concept of “forward guidance” as a policy …
Column-A ‘hurricane’ of double-digit default rates :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON – If indeed there is an economic hurricane coming, then someone should shake the junk bond market. JPMorgan boss Jamie Dimon …
Column-Missing the mix? Central bank view framed by fiscal space :Mike Dolan
By Mike Dolan LONDON – Markets may be missing the mix. As financial markets parse monetary policy tea leaves by the hour and remain in …