Column-Fed policy pivots are taking longer: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – Even as traders bring forward the expected timing of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut, the gap …
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Column-High yield bond market may hold less junk than before: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – The U.S. high yield bond market is the dog that has rarely barked, never mind bitten, during the …
Column-Funds ramp up long dollar, short Treasuries bets: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – Hedge funds have entered the final quarter of the year doubling down on two of their biggest macro …
Column-Bear steepening U.S. yield curve dashes ‘soft landing’ hopes: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – The surge in long-dated U.S. bond yields currently underway and driving the so-called ‘bear steepening’ of the yield …
Hawkish Fed unwittingly stokes Treasuries ‘basis trade’ risks: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -The Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates, and determination to reduce its balance sheet, may inadvertently be stoking …
Auto strike may spit fuel on U.S. inflation flame: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -With oil prices at their highest this year and eyeing $100 a barrel again, the last thing U.S. consumers, …
Central banks still scooping up beaten-down Treasuries: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -If you view global central banks’ and reserve managers’ appetite for U.S. Treasuries through a value-adjusted lens, official sector …
We’re still in a low rates, yields world: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -If you think this time is different, and the post-2008 world of low interest rates and bond yields is …
As Nvidia splashes out, are stock buybacks worth it?: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – To buy back, or not to buy back. The highest U.S. interest rates in over 20 years coupled …
Column-China, Japan share of U.S. bond market shrinks to record low: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – What if Japan or China intervened in the foreign exchange market to sell dollars and support their currencies …
Column-Markets clamor for ‘R-star’ signal from Jackson Hole: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – Investors are hoping policymakers gathering at the Kansas City Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this month will …
Column-Investors favor Japan’s rising sun over China’s fading star: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – Long Japan, short China. If there is a general macro, relative value trade playing out right now, it …
Column-Funds take record short position across U.S. Treasuries curve: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – There’s a large swathe of the investment community convinced that 2023 will be a solid year for U.S. …
Column-Quadruple whammy whips June Fed rate hike off the table: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – The Fed may well hike U.S. interest rates again on Wednesday but cracks appearing on multiple fronts – …
Column-The world is not dumping its dollars: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – For all the hullabaloo about the world weaning itself off the U.S. dollar, hard numbers show that both …
Small U.S. banks and businesses make for big problem: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -If small businesses are the bedrock of the U.S. economy, last month’s banking shock has given us a pretty …
Column-Funds suffer record reversal on record US rate bets: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) – First the record wager on higher U.S. interest rates, now the record wipe out. Commodity Futures Trading Commission …
Hedge funds put record wager on higher 2-year U.S. bond yield: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) -Hedge funds entered February holding their biggest ever short position in two-year U.S. Treasuries futures. That’s what the most …
Column-Clock ticks on lofty U.S. stocks: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – To paraphrase John Maynard Keynes’s apocryphal quote, stock markets are staying over-valued longer than investors are staying rational, …
Column-Wall St rip finds few fans at Miami hedge fund week: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – The mood at the annual ‘Miami hedge fund week’ gatherings this week was as bright as the winter …
Funds bet heavily on U.S. curve steepeners: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) -A key part of the U.S. yield curve is the most inverted in decades and for hedge funds, enough …
Column-U.S. debt ceiling saga softens Fed’s QT: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – If the Federal Reserve is to ease U.S. monetary policy this year, it may be a backdoor loosening …
Column-U.S. debt ceiling saga softens Fed’s QT: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – If the Federal Reserve is to ease U.S. monetary policy this year, it may be a backdoor loosening …
Column-Bank of Japan shift exposes global bond cracks: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – Japan risks pulling the rug from under the much-touted “year of the bond.” Further changes to the Bank …
Column-Funds start 2023 short dollars, eyeing U.S. rate peak: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – Hedge funds have started 2023 betting that U.S. interest rates are close to peaking, that the Federal Reserve …
Column-Hedge funds to Fed: you win: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – Hedge funds have significantly increased their record bet on higher short-dated U.S. bond yields, confirming that whatever fight …
Column-U.S. bond ‘term premium’ is back, casting shadow over long end: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – In the worst year for U.S. Treasuries ever, it is the ultra-long end that investors should be most …
Column-Japan faces battle royale with funds on yen: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – Japan’s historic FX market intervention on Sept. 22 failed to stem the wave of speculative bets against the …
Column-Hedge funds still betting on that elusive Fed pivot: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – They’ll be proved right one day, just not yet. Hedge funds continue to bet that the U.S. Federal …
Central banks still U.S. bond buyers – but FX campaigns may jar: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) -An apparent rundown of global foreign exchange reserves this year is just a mirage related to U.S. dollar strength …
Column – Funds’ pivot hopes get smoked as Fed doubles down: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – Hedge funds went into the Fed’s Sept. 20-21 policy meeting betting on a sign that a dovish pivot …
Column-U.S. corporate profit boom reveals more about inflation threat than wages: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – While the Federal Reserve and other central banks obsess over avoiding a 1970s style ‘wage-price’ spiral, U.S. GDP …
Dollar’s historic surge may be music to Fed’s ears: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – The dollar is soaring against the world’s major currencies, heading for its biggest calendar year rise in almost …
Stocks rebound shows the devil in the retail: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. (Reuters) – Retail investors are back. In fact, they never went away. The recent rebound on Wall Street has been …
Column-Hedge funds strike it right on dollar, yield curve: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – Hedge funds slashed their long dollar positions and bet harder on a flatter yield curve, two macro trades that …
Column – Fed’s Powell could use Jackson Hole to flesh out QT thinking: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – The U.S. Federal Reserve’s plan to unwind its bond-bloated balance sheet has taken a backseat to its dramatic interest …
Column – Deep U.S. curve inversion hastens the recession it predicts: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – An inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve almost always heralds recession, but the yawning gap between high short-term funding costs …
Column-The new economic normal – living with COVID: McGeever
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – Central banks are jacking up interest …
Column-ECB has major euro headache; FX market offers no relief: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – The world’s big four central banks are all in an unenviable position of fighting the highest inflation in decades …
Column-Fed’s inflation target ambiguity risks market misstep: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – It may just boil down to semantics, and in good times when inflation is low it’s not an issue …
Hedge funds turn tail as commodities crumble on recession rumble: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – Buy and hold, maximum long. That has basically been the strategy for commodity hedge funds for the last couple …
Column-Markets not braced for Japanese, Swiss cenbank liquidity drain: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – If estimates that world markets face a record $4 trillion liquidity drain over the next 18 months are even …
Column-Fed may face yield curve, recession ‘mea culpa’: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen this week issued a ‘mea culpa’ on getting it wrong on inflation. If the …
Column-Yellen could face G7 pressure on dollar: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has barely made any public comment on the dollar’s exchange rate since she assumed …
Column-‘TINA’ still driving hedge funds’ bullish dollar view: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – Being long dollars will no doubt become an overcrowded trade at some point and a reversal will ensue, but …
Column-‘Peak subscription’ a red flag for U.S. economy and markets: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – U.S. consumers appear to have online subscription and streaming fatigue, a lethargy that may be a reflection of where …
Column-Funds shun sterling as UK data dam bursts: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – Evidence is rapidly mounting that Britain’s cost of living crisis is starting to bite, and hedge funds are in …
Column-Hedge funds’ bullish dollar view distorted by yen outlier: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – Hedge funds remain bullish on the dollar, holding a net long dollar position in currency futures markets for more …
Column-Funds get steamrollered on steeper U.S. yield curve bets. Again: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – It will probably come good one day, but hedge funds’ latest attempt to position for a steeper U.S. yield …
Column-Q1 investment verdict? ‘Not good, but not horrible’: McGeever
By Jamie McGeever ORLANDO, Fla. – The first quarter was a scary ride for most investors but those who stuck to a conventional ’60-40′ portfolio …