(Reuters) – Mexico’s government forecast economic growth of 3.4% for 2022, far below what the nation’s President was aiming for, a finance ministry document showed on Friday, as Latin America’s second-largest economy claws back losses from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The ministry said in a published budget document that it expects the economy to expand by 3.5% in 2023.
“The persistent impacts of the pandemic on supply and demand imbalances, and the escalation of the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have forced countries to adjust their growth expectations for this year,” the document says.
The new figure compares to President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s projection of 5% growth for the economy in 2022 and a prior government forecast for a 4.1% expansion. [nL1N2UD138]
The budget document projected inflation at 5.5% by the end of 2022, slowing to 3.3% by the end of 2023.
The exchange rate is seen at 20.7 pesos per U.S dollar for the end of 2022, and 20.9 pesos at the end of 2023, the ministry said, compared with 19.8 pesos on Friday.
Mexico expects this year’s average oil price will be $92.90 per barrel, while crude production is estimated at 1.82 million barrels per day (bpd), rising to 1.85 million bpd in 2023.
The ministry expects an average of 879,000 bpd of crude exports in 2022.
The country will remain focused on promoting economic development and job creation through public spending, the document said, adding spending would not “jeopardize the continuation and completion of key infrastructure works or priority social programs.”
(Reporting by Carolina Pulice and Anthony Esposito; Editing by David Alire Garcia and William Mallard)