MANILA (Reuters) – Developing Asia is on track to grow faster in 2023 from a year earlier as strong consumption and investment offset the impact of weak global demand, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Wednesday.
In an update to its regional economic outlook, the ADB kept its 2023 growth forecast for developing Asia at 4.8%, but revised a tad lower its estimate for next year to 4.7% from 4.8% in April, reflecting risks, including from Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Developing Asia consists of 46 economies in the Asia-Pacific and excludes Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
The ADB maintained its growth projections for subregions East Asia and South Asia, with China and India still expected to expand 5.0% and 6.4% this year, respectively, and 4.5% and 6.7% in 2024, but trimmed slightly its outlook for Southeast Asia.
Growth in Southeast Asia is now expected at 4.6% this year and 4.9% next year, down from 4.7% and 5.0% previously, the ADB said, due mainly to weaker global demand for exports.
An upside risk to the growth outlook of developing Asia is slower inflation, which has allowed most central banks in the region to hold off tightening, helping underpin domestic consumption.
The region’s inflation is forecast to slow to 3.6% this year from its previous forecast of 4.2%, with the rate expected to decelerate further to 3.4% in 2024.
GDP GROWTH 2021 2022 2023 2023 2023 2024 2024
DEC APR JULY APR JULY
Caucasus and 5.8 5.1 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.4
Central Asia
East Asia 7.9 2.8 4.0 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.2
China 8.4 3.0 4.3 5.0 5.0 4.5 4.5
South Asia 8.4 6.4 6.3 5.5 5.5 6.1 6.1
India 9.1 6.8 7.2 6.4 6.4 6.7 6.7
Southeast Asia 3.5 5.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.9
Indonesia 3.7 5.3 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.0
Malaysia 3.1 8.7 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.9
Myanmar -5.9 2.0 n/a 2.8 n/a 3.2 n/a
Philippines 5.7 7.6 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.2
Singapore 8.9 3.6 2.3 2.0 1.5 3.0 3.0
Thailand 1.5 2.6 4.0 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.7
Vietnam 2.6 8.0 6.3 6.5 5.8 6.8 6.2
The Pacific -1.4 5.2 4.8 3.3 3.3 2.8 2.8
Developing Asia 7.2 4.2 4.6 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7
INFLATION
DEC APR JULY APR JULY
Central Asia 9.0 12.9 8.5 10.3 10.6 7.5 7.8
East Asia 1.1 2.3 2.4 2.3 1.3 2.0 2.1
China 0.9 2.0 2.3 2.2 1.0 2.0 2.0
South Asia 5.8 8.2 7.9 8.1 8.1 5.8 6.4
India 5.5 6.7 5.8 5.0 4.9 4.5 4.5
Southeast Asia 2.0 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.3 3.2
Indonesia 1.6 4.2 5.0 4.2 3.8 3.0 3.0
Malaysia 2.5 3.4 3.0 3.1 3.1 2.8 2.8
Myanmar 3.6 16.0 n/a 10.5 n/a 8.2 n/a
Philippines 3.9 5.8 4.3 6.2 6.2 4.0 4.0
Singapore 2.3 6.1 5.5 5.0 5.0 2.0 2.0
Thailand 1.2 6.1 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.3
Vietnam 1.8 3.2 4.5 4.5 4.0 4.2 4.0
The Pacific 3.1 5.7 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.4 4.4
Developing Asia 2.6 4.4 4.2 4.2 3.6 3.3 3.4
(Reporting by Karen Lema; Editing by Martin Petty)