(Reuters) – Most brokerages expect two more 25-basis point rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) as inflation remains sticky and central bank policymakers strike a hawkish stance.
The ECB deposit rate now stands at a 22-year high of 3.5% following a 25-basis point hike last month. Its euro short-term rate forwards currently implies the deposit rate would peak at around 3.9% in December or early next year.
Following are forecasts from some big global banks:
Brokerage July September Terminal
Name Rate
J.P.Morgan 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%
Goldman 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%
Sachs
Citigroup 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%
UniCredit 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%
BNP Paribas 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%
RBC 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%
BofA 25 bps hike Sees “significant risk” 3.75%
of a 4% terminal rate
in September
Barclays 25 bps hike no hike 3.75%
Morgan 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%
Stanley
Deutsche 25 bps hike “A further hike to 4% 3.75%
Bank in September cannot be
ruled out, but is also
not a done deal”
UBS 25 bps hike 25 bps hike 4%
(Compiled by Broker Research team in Bengaluru)