SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australian job advertisements posted a small rise in July after an outsized decline in the previous month, data showed on Monday, but analysts say the lift could be a blip as rate hikes work to cool red-hot labour demand.
Data from Australia and New Zealand Banking Group and employment website Indeed showed job ads rose 0.4% in July from June, when they fell 2.7%.
Ads were down 8.9% year-on-year earlier, but remained 49.8% above pre-pandemic levels.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates by a whopping 400 basis points to 4.1%, but the labour market has defied expectations of a slowdown so far, with the jobless rate nearing 50-year lows and the economy adding more jobs than expected.
“The series has fallen 2.1% over the past three months, suggesting the July lift is likely to be a blip,” said economists at ANZ.
“There are other signs labour market momentum is starting to slow as the RBA’s 400bp of hikes flow through to economic activity… this suggests we’ll see a gradual cooling of the labour market from its very strong starting position.”
Markets suspect the cash rate is nearing its peak, with futures pricing in an even chance of a further rate hike to 4.35% in December. A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the RBA could deliver the last hike in the fourth quarter.
(Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Shri Navaratnam)