NEW BRUNSWICK, NJ — If you’re the type of person who still believes in political polls in 2025, then this story might upset you, or make you feel comfortable depending on your political persuasion.
Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill holds an early lead over Republican challenger Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey’s 2025 gubernatorial race, though the latest Rutgers-Eagleton Poll shows the contest tightening on key economic issues.
If you haven’t yet heard, Mikie Sherill was a U.S. Navy pilot. Now that we got that out of the way, here’s what’s happening so far.
Among registered voters, 56% say they would vote for Sherrill if the election were held today, compared to 35% for Ciattarelli. However, support for Ciattarelli strengthens when voters are asked about issues such as taxes and crime. The poll was conducted from June 13 to June 16 and has a margin of error of ±5.2 percentage points.
While Sherrill maintains a broad advantage on topics like health care (51% to 24%) and education (50% to 24%), voter preferences are nearly even on the top issue—taxes—with 39% favoring Sherrill and 34% backing Ciattarelli. On crime and safety, voters are similarly divided: 39% for Sherrill and 37% for Ciattarelli.
“Early polling on the governor’s race should serve as a baseline or a barometer of how voters are feeling in the moment—not as some crystal ball predicting the future,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University-New Brunswick.
President Donald Trump’s role is also influencing the race.
Over half of voters (52%) say Trump is a “major factor” in their voting decision, with Democrats and Sherrill supporters more likely to say so than Republicans and Ciattarelli supporters. Among independents, 48% said Trump is a major factor in their choice.
Sherrill is also seen as more moderate. Fifty percent of voters classify her as “moderate” or “somewhat liberal,” while two-thirds see Ciattarelli as “conservative” or “very conservative.”
The candidates have made significant gains in name recognition since April. Sherrill is now viewed favorably by 50% of voters—up 30 points—while 33% view Ciattarelli favorably, up 15 points. Sherrill enjoys stronger support among Democrats than Ciattarelli does among Republicans and also leads among independents in both favorability and vote preference.
While Sherrill leads overall, the poll shows voters split or uncertain on several key issues—an early sign the race may tighten further as November approaches.