Nicole Silverio
October 25, 20245:16 PM ET
Axios reporter Hans Nichols argued Friday that Republican nominee Donald Trump could win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College to Vice President Kamala Harris based on recent national polling averages.
The former president has edged Harris in national polls just two weeks out from the election, indicating a strong possibility that Trump could win the popular vote, Nichols said on “Your World With Neil Cavuto.” The national polling suggests that Trump is performing better among voter blocs who do not make up the undecided voters in swing states.
“I think you make that call and it turns out to be right, you’ll be known as the Seer or the Siege of this election cycle,” Nichols told Fox News host Neil Cavuto. “I actually agree with you [that] it’s more possible than people are giving credit for and that gets us back to the whole question of the national polls versus the Electoral College polls, or the swing-state polls. The assumption that’s been baked into everyone is that Trump can be underperforming in the national polls and still eke out a victory in the Electoral College.”
“What you just suggested may be true, and something at the national level is gonna happen where Trump is going to be more popular in blue states for a variety of reasons like crime or immigration, and that a lot of Trump’s frothy numbers right now … his numbers being more elevated at the national level are actually counting voters who will not have anything to do with who’s going to win on November 5 which is to say that the 100,000 voters in the swing states that haven’t made up their mind. So, I love your prediction Neil. I don’t know if it’s true, but I think we should be aware that it’s a possibility.”
WATCH:
A Wall Street Journal poll from Thursday found Trump leading Harris nationally 47% to 45%, while a CNBC poll found the former president securing a 2-point lead, 48% to 46%, above Harris on a national level. The former president also held a 0.8 point lead against Harris across every swing state as of Oct. 18, according to RealClearPolling averages.
Trump lost the popular vote to former Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 by about 3 million votes, but he defeated Clinton in the Electoral College by a 304-227 margin that ultimately led him to victory. The former president lost both the popular vote and the Electoral College to President Joe Biden in 2020.
Harris’ popularity declined in the month of October following her media blitz with mostly friendly outlets. Her positivity rating stood higher than negative rating 48% to 45% in an NBC News poll from September, but voters’ perceptions of the vice president have since changed to 39% positive and 49% negative in the CNBC poll, MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki highlighted Thursday.
The vice president is leading Trump by an average of 1 point in national popular vote polls, standing much lower than President Joe Biden’s 9-point lead or former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 6-point lead in late October before the elections of 2016 and 2020, CNN’s Harry Enten said Friday.
A Republican nominee has not won the popular vote since former President George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004.
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