MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexico’s economic expansion likely dipped in the final three months of last year, at a time of sluggish production activity in the United States, a Reuters poll showed on Monday.
The United States is by far Mexico’s top trading partner.
Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) likely grew 0.3% during the fourth quarter in seasonally adjusted terms, down from a 0.9% expansion in the previous quarter, according to the median forecast of 10 analysts.
The expected growth streak in Latin America’s No. 2 economy would mark five straight quarters of modest expansion.
The U.S. economy grew in the fourth quarter, but that might be the last three-month period of solid growth before the effects of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy tightening cycle are fully felt, according to analysts, who mostly expect a recession by the second half of the year.
Mexico’s economy is forecast to have grown 3.4% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, down from 4.3% in the previous quarter, according to the survey.
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Mexico’s official statistics agency INEGI will publish fourth-quarter GDP data on Tuesday.
(Reporting by Noe Torres; Additional reporting by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Editing by Alistair Bell)