2024

Chinese Financial System Poised To Hemorrhage Even More Foreign Cash In 2024, Report Says

Chinese Financial System Poised To Hemorrhage Even More Foreign Cash In 2024, Report Says Will Kessler on December 13, 2023 Foreign investors are expected to pull $65 billion in capital out of China in 2024 as rising tensions and worry over the country’s economy plague future outlooks, according to a report from the Institute of International Finance (IIF). The projection anticipates withdrawals by investors from China due to risks related to deteriorating relations with the West amid a trade war and de-risking strategies as the country’s economy continues to struggle, according to a report from the IIF. The projected losses

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Jack Smith’s Only Aim Is To ‘Rush’ A Trial That Prevents Trump From Winning In 2024, Trump’s Lawyers Allege

Jack Smith’s Only Aim Is To ‘Rush’ A Trial That Prevents Trump From Winning In 2024, Trump’s Lawyers Allege Katelynn Richardson on December 12, 2023 Special Counsel Jack Smith’s only aim is to prevent former President Donald Trump from winning the 2024 election by rushing an “unconstitutional and fundamentally unfair trial,” Trump’s lawyers alleged in a court filing Tuesday. Smith — who just asked the Supreme Court on Monday to directly take up Trump’s claim that his 2020 election case should be dismissed based on presidential immunity, without first letting the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals consider the question —

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South African inflation to slow in 2024- Reuters poll

By Vuyani Ndaba JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – Inflation in South Africa will slow next year as global trends weighing on prices’ growth combine with weak domestic consumer spending, a Reuters poll found. From an estimated average of 5.8% this year, inflation is expected to decline to 5.0% next year and 4.5% in 2025, according to the median forecasts of 19 economists polled from Dec. 6-12. The latter would be right in the middle of the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) comfort zone of 3%-6%. Jeffrey Schultz, chief economist at BNP Paribas, wrote in a note that prospects for disinflation next year

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Philippine central bank done with rate hikes; first cut seen in Q3 2024, same as Fed

By Anant Chandak BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Philippine central bank will leave its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% for a second time on Thursday thanks to cooling inflation and an improving currency, according to a Reuters poll that showed it would remain steady through Q2 2024. While inflation eased to a 20-month low in November near the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 2%-4% target, the peso posted its best monthly performance in a year last month following an off-cycle 25 basis-point hike at the end of October, lifting pressure for another increase. However, amid risks inflation could rise again

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Taiwan central bank seen standing pat this week and all of 2024- Reuters poll

TAIPEI (Reuters) – Taiwan’s central bank is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged this week as inflation gradually cools and indeed keep it steady for all of next year, according to economists in a Reuters poll. The central bank is likely to keep the benchmark discount rate at 1.875% at its quarterly meeting on Thursday, according to 28 of the 29 economists surveyed. Economists who answered questions on the outlook beyond this week predicted the bank would start cutting rates only from the first quarter of 2025. The median estimate was for a drop to 1.75%. The bank paused

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Citi strategists upbeat on US stocks in 2024, fueled by earnings

By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) – The S&P 500 is poised for solid gains next year on strong earnings growth and a broadening of the stock market’s rally, strategists at Citigroup said on Friday. The bank’s “base case” calls for the benchmark S&P 500 to end 2024 at 5,100, an 11% gain from current levels, Citi’s Scott Chronert and his team said in their outlook report. The index has gained nearly 20% in 2023, led by megacap tech and growth stocks, but “a broadening beyond 2023’s Growth leadership is necessary for further S&P 500 gains,” the strategists said. “All

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Most EM currencies to rebound in 2024, ‘carry trades’ still attractive: Reuters poll

By Vuyani Ndaba and Devayani Sathyan JOHANNESBURG/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Most emerging market currencies will recover 2023 losses and trade modestly higher against the dollar next year as bets on interest rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve increase, a Reuters poll found. A fall in the U.S. dollar last month after soft U.S. inflation data and dovish remarks from the Fed drove a 2.6% rise in the emerging markets currency index since the start of November – a trend set to continue into next year. However, with risks U.S. interest rates stay higher for longer investors will remain cautious, leading

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BoC to cut rates starting in Q2 2024, house prices seen flat in 2024: Reuters poll

By Mumal Rathore BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada will start cutting interest rates in the second quarter of next year as inflation and the economy slow, according to economists polled by Reuters, who forecast base borrowing costs will drop by at least one percentage point by end-2024. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem said in a recent speech “interest rates may now be restrictive enough” with excess demand gone and weak growth expected to persist, leading most to conclude the central bank is done hiking. But Macklem also said “right now, it is not time to start thinking about cutting

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German GDP to expand in 2024, but court ruling could lower growth – OECD

BERLIN (Reuters) – The German economy is projected to grow by 0.6% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, after contracting slightly in 2023, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) published on Wednesday. The OECD’s forecasts are less optimistic than those of the German government, which expects growth of 1.3% and 1.5% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. A constitutional court ruling nearly two weeks ago blocked the government’s plans to reallocate unused pandemic funds to green initiatives and industry support, raising fears Europe’s largest economy could be further weakened. “It is crucial to resolve the

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In 2024, Republican EV attacks may fall short as swing states reap investment

By Gram Slattery and Nichola Groom WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Electric vehicles are a “hoax,” they do not work, and they are strengthening China’s economy at the expense of American jobs.     Those are among the criticisms that contenders for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, including former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, have leveled on the campaign trail in recent weeks.     But while EVs have emerged as a common foe for Republicans seeking the country’s top job, they are increasingly a source of tax revenue and employment in the states that will determine the winner of the 2024

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‘Vacuum Up Its Cash’: Why Is Nikki Haley Courting Wall Street Ahead Of 2024?

‘Vacuum Up Its Cash’: Why Is Nikki Haley Courting Wall Street Ahead Of 2024? Mary Lou Masters on November 23, 2023 Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has been engaging with Wall Street executives as she experiences a surge in key early primary state polls for president. Some GOP political consultants and conservative financial experts accused Haley of courting support from the “establishment,” and voiced concern over the top business leaders promoting ESG and DEI while supporting business relationships with China, they told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “That’s why Nikki Haley is like a perfect person for the establishment —

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BOJ to end negative interest rates in 2024, over 80% of economists say – Reuters poll

By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy next year, more than 80% of economists in a Reuters poll said, with more convinced the central bank is getting closer to exiting its controversial monetary settings. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda faces the difficult task of navigating Japan away from the extremely accommodative policy of the past decade without causing market turmoil or squashing a fragile economic recovery. While none of 26 economists predicted changes in the upcoming December BOJ meeting, many foresaw the negative rate policy, which has set Japan’s short-term deposit

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Exclusive-China govt advisers call for steady growth target in 2024, more stimulus

By Kevin Yao BEIJING (Reuters) – Chinese government advisers will recommend economic growth targets for next year ranging from 4.5% to 5.5% to an annual policymakers’ meeting, as Beijing seeks to create jobs and keep long-term development goals on track. Five of the seven advisers who spoke with Reuters said they favoured a target of around 5%, matching this year’s goal. One adviser will propose a 4.5% target, while the other suggested a 5.0-5.5% range. The proposals will be made next month at the ruling Communist Party’s annual Central Economic Work Conference that discusses policy plans and the outlook for

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Stocks to outperform fixed income in 2024, says Barclays

(Reuters) – Global equities are set to outperform core fixed-income assets next year, as threats of a global economic slowdown have declined, Barclays strategists said in a note on Thursday. They pointed to equities holding up against a ‘higher-for-longer’ interest rate environment, thanks to a largely AI-driven rally in U.S. mega-caps as well as strength in the U.S. economy. The S&P 500 index is up 17% so far this year, despite an uptrend in 10-year Treasury yield that saw it hit 16-year highs last month and the Federal Reserve’s 525-basis points worth of policy tightening since last March. MSCI’s All

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South Korea economic growth to exceed potential rate in 2024, Yoon says

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Tuesday the economy in 2024 would exceed the potential growth rate after picking up pace in the second half of 2023, and pledged closer ties with the United States to bolster crisis management capabilities. The government is closely monitoring the economic and security situations and prepared to take response measures in a timely manner, Yoon said in a speech to parliament on next year’s proposed budget. “The pace of economic growth will continue to expand in the second half of the year as forecast earlier … and by next

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Poll Shows Inflation to Rise in 2024, Impacting New York, New Jersey Consumers

NEWARK, NJ – There is no relief from inflation in sight, especially for consumers in New York and New Jersey, two of the states where the cost of living is already among the highest in America. Combined with already high property taxes, sales tax, and other taxes that burden New Yorkers and New Jersey residents, the world is expecting more inflation, limiting the purchasing power of Americans, particularly those in our area. A majority of economists are revising their interest rate forecasts amid persistent global inflation, according to a Reuters poll conducted between October 6 and October 25. While some

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BOJ to end negative interest rates in 2024, more economists say- Reuters poll

TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy next year, according to nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll, with more now saying the central bank is inching closer to phasing out ultra-accommodative monetary policy. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is seeking to dial back the complex monetary stimulus deployed by his predecessor, but faces a challenging task of doing so without causing sharp and disruptive swings in capital markets. While 25 of 28 economists polled Oct 17-25 expect no change to policy at next week’s meeting, the remaining three, at Barclays, JP Morgan

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Bank Indonesia to stay put till year-end, cut in Q2 2024: Reuters poll

By Veronica Dudei Maia Khongwir BENGALURU (Reuters) – Bank Indonesia (BI) will follow its regional peers and leave its interest rate unchanged on Oct. 19, staying on the sidelines for longer than previously expected, a Reuters poll found. With inflation at a 19-month low of 2.28% in September, firmly within BI’s 2-4% target range, all 36 economists in the Oct. 10-16 Reuters poll said the central bank would leave its seven-day reverse repurchase rate at 5.75% on Thursday for the ninth consecutive meeting. However, a weakening rupiah – down around 7.5% from a 2023 high of 14,560 per dollar hit

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UK set to have weakest growth among G7 in 2024, IMF forecasts

LONDON (Reuters) – Britain is set to have the slowest-growing economy among the Group of Seven nations next year – when the country is likely to choose a new government – according to forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday. British gross domestic product will expand by an estimated 0.6% in 2024, the IMF said, down from a previous forecast of 1.0% and weaker than growth of 0.9% and 1.3% expected for Germany and France respectively. The weak outlook reflected the need for the Bank of England to keep interest rates elevated to curb Britain’s still-high inflation rate

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BOJ will end negative interest rates in 2024, most economists say: Reuters poll

By Kantaro Komiya TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy next year, the majority of economists said in a Reuters poll, as the market has begun to envisage the demise of its ultra-easy monetary settings. Although none of the economists surveyed saw the chance of the BOJ rolling back its easy stance at this week’s meeting, nearly 80% of them said the central bank will also abolish the 10-year yield control scheme by the end of 2024. Governor Kazuo Ueda told a newspaper interview earlier this month the BOJ might get enough data

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S.Africa’s Reserve Bank to hold rate at Sept 21 meeting, chop 75 bps in 2024: Reuters poll

By Vuyani Ndaba JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – South Africa’s Reserve Bank will keep interest rates steady at 8.25% at its Sept. 21 meeting to curb the impact of fuel price inflation, according to nearly all economists polled by Reuters, but will start cutting borrowing costs early next year. In an almost unanimous poll taken Sept. 7-13, 29 of 30 economists said the South African Reserve Bank will keep rates steady. One opted for a 50 basis point hike to 8.75%. “I expect no further rate hikes in South Africa – and the first cut in rates might come in the first

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Global house price downturn fades, most markets to rise in 2024: Reuters poll

By Hari Kishan BENGALURU (Reuters) – The recent downturn in global property prices is mostly over with average home prices in major markets now expected to fall less than anticipated at the start of the year and rise into 2024, according to a Reuters poll of property analysts. Double-digit price falls that the analysts forecast earlier this year due to rising mortgage rates haven’t materialised in full as higher household savings, tight supply and rising immigration limited declines. Sharply higher mortgage rates, as a result of more than a year of interest rate rises by key central banks, haven’t affected

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U.S. judge sets March 4, 2024, trial for Trump over efforts to overturn 2020 election

By Sarah N. Lynch WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A federal judge on Monday set March 4, 2024, as the start date for former U.S. President Donald Trump’s criminal trial on charges of trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat in a failed bid to keep himself in power. “The public has a right to a prompt and efficient resolution of this matter,” U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan said. (Reporting by Sarah N. Lynch; Editing by Mark Porter)

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New York Congresswoman Pledges $100 Million to Protect Swing Districts

Mary Lou Masters on August 28, 2023 Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York is helping allocate an estimated $100 million to help defend swing districts in her home state ahead of the 2024 election, Politico reported Monday. Stefanik, the chair of the House Republican Conference, previously attended a fundraiser in the Hamptons with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, where she shared a long list of donors with the state party, according to Politico. The congresswoman, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the Republican National Committee (RNC) and several political action committees (PACs) are working together to fund advertising and potential

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BOJ will keep current policy until at least July 2024, most economists say: Reuters poll

By Kantaro Komiya and Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will start downscaling its massive monetary easing only in a year’s time, the majority of economists said in a Reuters poll, as speculation for further policy shifts abated after a surprise yield control tweak last month. At the July 27-28 meeting, the BOJ modified its yield curve control (YCC) scheme and allowed interest rates to rise more flexibly, a measure officially targeted to sustain easing but seen by markets as a prelude to dismantling decades of stimulus. Only one of 22 economists, or 5%, expected the BOJ

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