Economists - Shore News Network

BOJ to phase out loose monetary policy in January, over 20% of economists say- Reuters poll

ReutersDecember 14, 20230

By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will begin to unwind its ultra-loose monetary settings as early as January, more than a fifth of economists in a Reuters poll said, heightening expectations the controversial policy era is near an end. At the same time, over 80% of economists are expecting the Japanese central bank to ditch negative interest rates by the end of next year, a key pillar of the accommodative monetary regime, the Dec. 8-14 poll showed. A global outlier, the BOJ is likely to end the year as one of the world’s most dovish

US recession will prompt 175 basis points in Fed cuts next year, DB economists say

ReutersNovember 27, 20230

By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve will cut rates more aggressively than markets are currently pricing in as a mild U.S. recession arrives in the first half of next year, economists at Deutsche Bank projected on Monday. In an outlook report, the Deutsche Bank economists projected 175 basis points in rate cuts in 2024. With the Fed rate currently at 5.25%-5.5%, that would reduce the rate to 3.5%-3.75% by the end of the year. Traders are currently pricing in a rate of 4.48% by December 2024, according LSEG data. Deutsche Bank expects two quarters of negative

BOJ to end negative interest rates in 2024, over 80% of economists say – Reuters poll

ReutersNovember 21, 20230

By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy next year, more than 80% of economists in a Reuters poll said, with more convinced the central bank is getting closer to exiting its controversial monetary settings. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda faces the difficult task of navigating Japan away from the extremely accommodative policy of the past decade without causing market turmoil or squashing a fragile economic recovery. While none of 26 economists predicted changes in the upcoming December BOJ meeting, many foresaw the negative rate policy, which has set Japan’s short-term deposit

US rate cut not seen until Q4 2024 due to strong GDP growth -Goldman economists

ReutersNovember 13, 20230

By Lewis Krauskopf NEW YORK (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold off cutting rates until the fourth-quarter of next year, according to Goldman Sachs economists who cited stronger-than-expected economic growth that is helping forestall a recession. So far this year, the U.S. economy has defied recession fears and “made substantial progress toward a soft landing,” Goldman’s David Mericle and the firm’s economics team said in a note dated on Sunday. Goldman now expects a “historically average” 15% chance of recession over the next 12 months, compared to the consensus probability of 48%, the firm said. The firm expects

BOJ to end negative interest rates in 2024, more economists say- Reuters poll

ReutersOctober 26, 20230

TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy next year, according to nearly two-thirds of economists in a Reuters poll, with more now saying the central bank is inching closer to phasing out ultra-accommodative monetary policy. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is seeking to dial back the complex monetary stimulus deployed by his predecessor, but faces a challenging task of doing so without causing sharp and disruptive swings in capital markets. While 25 of 28 economists polled Oct 17-25 expect no change to policy at next week’s meeting, the remaining three, at Barclays, JP Morgan

BOJ will end negative interest rates in 2024, most economists say: Reuters poll

ReutersSeptember 21, 20230

By Kantaro Komiya TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy next year, the majority of economists said in a Reuters poll, as the market has begun to envisage the demise of its ultra-easy monetary settings. Although none of the economists surveyed saw the chance of the BOJ rolling back its easy stance at this week’s meeting, nearly 80% of them said the central bank will also abolish the 10-year yield control scheme by the end of 2024. Governor Kazuo Ueda told a newspaper interview earlier this month the BOJ might get enough data

Bad moment to hike rates as Russia’s growth stimuli sputter – economists

ReutersSeptember 20, 20230

By Darya Korsunskaya and Alexander Marrow (Reuters) – Double-digit interest rates and the possibility of more hikes down the road have come at a bad moment for Russia’s economy as the impact of higher industrial production and soaring defence spending wane, Russian economists said. The Bank of Russia jacked up rates to 13% on Friday and renewed its hawkish guidance, warning of high rates “for quite a long time” as authorities grapple with a weak rouble and persistently accelerating inflation. The fallout from Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent the Russian economy into a 2.1% decline last year

Economists cut Singapore 2023 growth and inflation forecasts – survey

ReutersSeptember 6, 20230

SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Economists have downgraded Singapore’s 2023 growth forecasts and inflation expectations, according to a survey by the country’s central bank published on Wednesday, with spillovers from an external growth slowdown cited as the top risk. The median forecast of 22 economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is for Singapore’s economy to grow 1.0% this year, down from a forecast of 1.4% in June’s survey. Gross domestic product is projected to expand by 2.5% in 2024. The median inflation forecast is for headline consumer prices to rise 4.7% this year, down from 5.0% predicted in June.

BOJ will keep current policy until at least July 2024, most economists say: Reuters poll

ReutersAugust 25, 20230

By Kantaro Komiya and Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will start downscaling its massive monetary easing only in a year’s time, the majority of economists said in a Reuters poll, as speculation for further policy shifts abated after a surprise yield control tweak last month. At the July 27-28 meeting, the BOJ modified its yield curve control (YCC) scheme and allowed interest rates to rise more flexibly, a measure officially targeted to sustain easing but seen by markets as a prelude to dismantling decades of stimulus. Only one of 22 economists, or 5%, expected the BOJ

S.African Reserve Bank to kick off easing cycle early next year -economists: Reuters poll

ReutersAugust 22, 20230

By Vuyani Ndaba JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) – The South African Reserve Bank is likely to leave its repo rate unchanged this year before kicking off a cutting cycle in early 2024, chopping 25 basis points in every quarter as inflation slows closer to its comfort level, a Reuters poll found. If this happens, South Africa’s Reserve Bank will join a list of emerging market central banks that have either already begun cutting rates or will embark on a loosening path after tightening to brake inflation long before many developed nations. In a survey conducted in the past week, 17 of 20

Fed done hiking; slim majority of economists say no rate cut through March – Reuters poll

ReutersAugust 18, 20230

By Prerana Bhat and Indradip Ghosh BENGALURU (Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely done raising interest rates, according to a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters, and a slight majority now expect the central bank to wait at least through end-March before cutting them. With the world’s largest economy defying nearly every negative forecast, and unemployment around a more than five-decade low, the median probability of a recession within a year fell to 40%, its first time below 50% since September 2022. A 90% majority, 99 of 110 economists, polled Aug 14-18 say the Fed will keep

Biden’s ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Did Nothing To Bring Down Inflation, Economists Agree

The Daily CallerAugust 14, 20230

Biden’s ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Did Nothing To Bring Down Inflation, Economists Agree Will Kessler on August 14, 2023 The Inflation Reduction Act did nothing to address the causes of inflation and was instead named as such due to the politics of the moment, according to economists who spoke to The Associated Press. Economists say that the $740 billion legislation, which was passed one year ago on Wednesday, does not deserve credit for bringing down inflation, and President Joe Biden has also come out to say that the legislation was not meant to address record-high inflation, according to the AP. Inflation

ECB to pause in September, say slim majority of economists: Reuters poll

ReutersAugust 10, 20230

By Prerana Bhat BENGALURU (Reuters) – The European Central Bank will pause a more than year-long rate-hiking campaign in September, according to a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters, but a further rise by year-end is still on the cards with inflation running hot. There have been nine consecutive ECB rate rises since July 2022. But bank President Christine Lagarde began paving the way for a pause by telling a news conference after last month’s 25 basis point hike: “Do we have more ground to cover? At this point in time I wouldn’t say so.” Faced with slowing activity

Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver final rate hike in Q4, economists say : Reuters poll

ReutersAugust 3, 20230

By Devayani Sathyan BENGALURU (Reuters) – Australia’s central bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points next quarter in their last hike of the cycle, economists polled by Reuters said following a surprise pause on Tuesday. On Aug. 1, the Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged for a second straight month, stating the 400 basis points worth of rate rises over the past 16 months were working to cool demand as inflation showed signs of easing. While the decision to hold was in line with interest rates futures pricing, it startled a majority of economists who had expected

‘Bidenomics’ Is Driving The Trucking Industry Off The Road, Economists Say

The Daily CallerAugust 2, 20230

‘Bidenomics’ Is Driving The Trucking Industry Off The Road, Economists Say Will Kessler on August 2, 2023 The trucking industry is hurting following union deals and bankruptcies, due in part to the Biden administration’s economic policies and rhetoric, according to economists who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation. In July, major union the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the United Parcel Service narrowly avoided the end of the UPS drivers’ contract by reaching a deal on increased worker offerings, and the bankruptcy of shipping company Yellow saw the closure of the third largest provider of less-than-truckload carriers, shipping services that

BOJ won’t tweak YCC in July, say 77% of economists: Reuters poll

ReutersJuly 21, 20230

By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) – The Bank of Japan will hold steady its policy including its yield control scheme at next week’s meeting, more than three-quarters of economists polled by Reuters said, as policymakers stress more time is needed for inflation stability. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signalled his resolve to maintain its massive monetary stimulus, despite inflation persistently outpacing the bank’s 2% target. Only five of 22 economists, or 23%, expect the BOJ to start scaling back its ultra-loose easing and tweak yield curve control (YCC) at this month’s monetary policy review, the July 10-19 survey found, down

‘Catastrophic’: Biden’s Policies Put US Dollar’s Global Dominance At Risk, Economists Say

The Daily CallerJuly 16, 20230

‘Catastrophic’: Biden’s Policies Put US Dollar’s Global Dominance At Risk, Economists Say Jason Cohen on July 16, 2023 The policies of President Joe Biden’s administration are undermining the strength of the U.S. dollar and jeopardizing America’s worldwide influence, economists told the Daily Caller News Foundation. Economists expressed concern regarding the possible consequences of Biden’s policies, highlighting the threat to the U.S. dollar’s global reserve currency status. “Losing reserve currency status … would mean 70 years of deficits flooding back to the U.S., all competing with existing dollars held domestically to buy goods and services,” Heritage Foundation economist E.J. Antoni told

NZ central bank hits pause at 5.5%, economists see easing in 2024

ReutersJuly 11, 20230

By Lucy Craymer WELLINGTON (Reuters) – New Zealand’s central bank held the cash rate steady at 5.5% on Wednesday, hitting pause as expected and flagging rates would be on hold for some time, with most economists still expecting rate cuts to come in 2024. With the country in a technical recession, the RBNZ said the official cash rate (OCR) had constrained spending as anticipated but would need to stay high, as inflation is expected to fall into its target range only by the second half of next year. “The Committee agreed that the OCR will need to remain at a

Economists Warn of Coming ‘Recession’ Due To This Overlooked Warning Sign In Latest Jobs Report

The Daily CallerJuly 11, 20230

Economists Warn of Coming ‘Recession’ Due To This Overlooked Warning Sign In Latest Jobs Report Will Kessler on July 11, 2023 Experts are sounding the alarm on the recent jobs numbers after the estimate included an unusually high amount of jobs in the government sector, Fortune reported. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly jobs report on Friday showing that only 209,000 jobs were added in June, which is less than what economists had predicted and far less than the 309,000 job increase in May. The BLS also reported a large increase in new government jobs, showing 60,000

Soaring vegetable prices may tip India’s delicate inflation balance -economists

ReutersJuly 10, 20230

MUMBAI (Reuters) – A steeper-than-expected surge in the prices of vegetables, especially tomatoes, over the past few weeks could push India’s retail inflation towards 5.5% in the July-September quarter, at least three economists said. The country’s inflation eased to between 4% and 5% in April and May, inching towards the central bank’s 4% target, and likely held below 5% in June as well, partly due to a supportive base, data due Wednesday is expected to show. However, if the spike in vegetable prices sustains, it could push July inflation towards 6%, said Gaura Sen Gupta, an economist at IDFC First

RBA to raise cash rate to 4.35% in August, economists split on peak: Reuters poll

ReutersJuly 5, 20230

By Devayani Sathyan BENGALURU (Reuters) – Australia’s central bank will likely deliver a 25 basis point interest rate increase on Aug. 1 following a pause on Tuesday according to economists in a snap Reuters poll who were split on when and where the cost of borrowing would peak. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to pause again this week after two 25 basis points hikes at its May and June meetings, leaving analysts and market traders guessing on what to expect next. The RBA began tightening policy in May 2022 and had raised rates at every meeting since, other

Brazil economists foresee deeper monetary easing, lower inflation

ReutersJuly 3, 20230

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Private economists in Brazil anticipate deeper monetary easing this year and improved inflation prospects until 2026 following the government’s decision to maintain the country’s inflation goal at 3%, a weekly central bank poll showed on Monday. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has consistently blasted the country’s central bank for keeping interest rates at a cycle-high of 13.75% even as inflation slows. During the first months of his administration, he also criticized inflation targets as too low, arguing that they led to an overly restrictive monetary policy. Such remarks contributed to the deviation of long-term inflation

India’s merchandise import jump in may signals stable local economy – economists

ReutersJune 16, 20230

By Ira Dugal MUMBAI (Reuters) – A sequential increase in merchandise imports in May that led to the trade deficit widening to a five-month high signalled a stable local economy, economists said. Merchandise imports advanced 14.5% over the previous month to $57.1 billion, while exports inched up 0.7% to $35 billion. The merchandise trade deficit widened to $22.1 billion in May from $15.1 billion in the previous month. “The recovery in imports points to domestic demand resilience,” said Madhavi Arora, lead economist at Emkay Global. Arora also pointed to a seasonal trend, citing a typical increase in imports in May

Japan will stop yen decline beyond USD/JPY 145, most economists say: Reuters poll

ReutersJune 15, 20230

By Satoshi Sugiyama TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s government and central bank will act to stop the yen’s decline if it depreciates to the 145 per U.S. dollar level, more than half of economists polled by Reuters said. Market participants closely watch how the government and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) respond to currency moves, following their meeting last month when the yen neared a six-month low and ahead of the central bank’s rate review concluding on Friday. While 96% of the poll’s respondents expect the BOJ to maintain its policy this week, around half see a rollback of easing, including

Brazil economists cut long-term inflation expectations, unchanged for months

ReutersJune 12, 20230

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Brazilian economists have reduced their long-term inflation expectations, putting an end to months of unchanged projections that the central bank had cited as a cause for concern. According to the median forecast of a weekly central bank survey on Monday, 2025 inflation projections now stand at 3.9%, down from the previous estimate of 4.0% calculated since March 24. The expectation for 2026 has also decreased to 3.88% from the previous 4.0% forecast since March 17. The central bank has consistently expressed concern about increased inflation expectations for long-term horizons in its justifications for the need to