A new poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University shows New Jersey Governor Murphy retains lead, builds momentum among independents, critical to a victory tomorrow against his opponent, Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Ciattarelli has gained ground on Murphy over the past few weeks, but the poll shows he still has a way to go and not much time to get there as he chips away at Murphy’s lead with independent voters.”
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“As the race for New Jersey governor goes into its final weekend, incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy maintains a nine-point lead over his Republican challenger, Jack Ciattarelli, and has picked up momentum among independent voters,” FDU reported. “According to new survey results from the FDU Poll, the attacks on Murphy’s police reforms are effective, cutting Murphy’s lead significantly when voters are primed to think about them, but Ciattarelli is being held back by low name recognition.”
Murphy has solidified his own base while battling Ciattarelli for independents and undeclared voters. He now leads his opponent by 9 points.
Among all voters, Murphy retains a nine-point lead over Ciattarelli going into the final days of the race, 53 to 44, with 3 percent of voters saying that they’ll vote for a third-party candidate, or skip the governor’s race. Both candidates have managed to shore up their partisan bases, with Murphy getting 94 percent support among Democrats, and Ciattarelli getting 91 percent among Republicans. Among the smaller group of voters who do not lean towards either party, Ciattarelli has a significant lead, 56 to 39.
Ciattarelli maintains a solid edge against Murphy at the Jersey Shore and northwestern New Jersey where Republican strongholds where he leads the governor by 20 points or more, but the lowly populated rural areas of the state will likely not be enough to compete with the urbanized industrial belt cities that lean Democrat.
“Both candidates are about where you’d expect a generic Republican and a generic Democrat to be,” said Dan Cassino, a professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University and the Executive Director of the poll. “But to win in New Jersey, a Republican has to do much better than that.”
“It’s not impossible to close a nine-point gap in the polls,” said Cassino. “But partisans are remaining stable, the independents are moving against Ciattarelli, with many people already having voted, it seems like it is too late to turn things around.”
Ciattarelli has had a difficult time getting his message to the voters, hindered in part by an overly cautious campaign message that walks a fine line between swaying hardcore conservatives and moderate Democrats. Despite getting millions of dollars in public funds, Ciattarelli’s team has done a bad job of telling New Jersey who he is.
Instead, his campaign focuses on who he isn’t…Phil Murphy, leaving many meat and potatoes policy voters wondering who is Jack Ciattarelli and what does he stand for?
While the “I’m not Phil Murphy” strategy has helped Ciattarelli solidify his own base, it has done little to move the middle in his favor.
According to the poll, 34% of New Jersey voters have no opinion of Ciattarelli, not a great place to be just 24 hours before polls open on Tuesday. Only 34% of New Jerseyans had a favorable opinion of Ciattarelli, while 32% were unfavorable.