SHOSHANA BRYEN: The Biden Admin Should Stay Out Of Israel’s Talks With Saudi Arabia

SHOSHANA BRYEN: The Biden Admin Should Stay Out Of Israel’s Talks With Saudi Arabia

Shoshana Bryen on August 14, 2023

The brilliance of the Abraham Accords of 2020 is twofold: they were built on the failures of the U.S.-led “Arab Spring” and “democracy promotion,” accounting for the future as perceived by the regional states themselves; and they moved the U.S. from a position of “neutrality” between our democratic ally and long-time partner, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority (PA), which is neither, while leaving a place at the table for the Palestinians if their outlook changed.

Depending on what news outlet you read, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia did or did not, or may or may not come to an agreement that involves Saudi security, American guarantees and Israeli “concessions” to the PA. And which may or may not include full Saudi-Israel relations. And which might happen in the next six months, or the next year or never.

Keep in mind that while National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS) discussed their interests in the region and beyond, Israel was not in the room. A three-way negotiation between two parties?

Saudi goals are clear: a civilian nuclear program and “ironclad” U.S. security guarantees against Iran.

American interests appear to include progress on the administration’s plans for a “2-state solution,” currently rejected by both Israel and the PA, and pushing the Saudis away from their increasingly close relations with China. Wanting a quick deal to wave in the 2024 election, the administration appears ready to ignore what it had said about MBS being “a pariah” and, no doubt, hopes MBS is ready to ignore it as well — although that is hard to imagine.

It is also hard to imagine MBS believing in U.S. security guarantees while Washington offers Iran $6 billion in funds held by South Korea, plus the release of unnamed Iranians held in third countries in exchange for Tehran releasing five American prisoners (that’s $1.2 billion per American prisoner). What/who ensures that the money is spent only on humanitarian aid — as is required by the UN and the terms of the agreement? What keeps Iran from grabbing more Americans and starting the game over?

It is also hard to imagine Saudi Arabia accepting American limitations on its relationship with China in light of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s visit to China, where she told officials the world is “big enough for both our countries to thrive,” while bowing to China’s vice premier; and Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China to stabilize relations even as China declined to a) meet him with an honor guard at the airport or b) agree to his request for better military-to-military communications.

It is also hard to imagine that the Saudis have much of an interest in Palestinian statehood. Beginning in 2019, the Kingdom vastly reduced its financial support for the PA, having to do with corruption and an internal Fatah dispute in which the Saudis took sides. By the time the Abraham Accords were signed in 2020, Arab funds for the PA decreased by 81.6%. Saudi support declined by 77.2% according to the PA Ministry of Finance.

It is hard to imagine Saudi Arabia reinstating its financial or political support for the increasingly unstable Abbas regime in the West Bank. And what of those Israeli “concessions” to the Palestinians?

Since Israel wasn’t part of the conversation, it is hard to imagine that the government in Jerusalem will agree to much of anything — particularly factoring in the Biden administration’s constant criticism of Israel and its politics.

A more rational approach to the region would be the application of Abraham Accords questions: what do the parties want, and how can the U.S. be helpful?

If the Saudis want security in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea, working with Israel and USCENTCOM — as it presently does — is the best bet. CENTCOM Commander, Michael “Erik” Kurilla, works well with both countries. Separately, a Saudi security agreement with Israel about Iranian threats — nuclear and non-nuclear — would seem a reasonable goal.

If the Saudis want an economic and technology-driven relationship with Israel, according to Al-Monitor, it is already happening. “Work on Israel-Saudi land bridge has begun… The project will facilitate the transfer of goods in trucks initially between the UAE, Israel, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.”

It wasn’t for nothing that the Saudis put the futuristic city of Neom in the northwestern corner of the Kingdom on the Red Sea, close to Israel, Egypt and Jordan.

What is needed here is a series of quiet conversations between two countries in the region who share security concerns in the present and economic goals for the future. The U.S. can be helpful, as it was with the Abraham Accords, but should otherwise stay out of the way.

Shoshana Bryen is Senior Director of The Jewish Policy Center and Editor of inFOCUS Quarterly.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.