Here’s Why Wisconsin Operatives Think Republicans Have Yet To Challenge The State’s Incumbent Dem Senator In 2024

Here’s Why Wisconsin Operatives Think Republicans Have Yet To Challenge The State’s Incumbent Dem Senator In 2024

Mary Lou Masters on August 27, 2023

• With top Republicans ruling out a Senate bid in 2024, the GOP primary field to take on Democratic incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin is wide open.
• Some GOP operatives in the state believe Republicans might be hesitant to challenge the longtime senator, while others believe there’s still plenty of time for a candidate to emerge, they told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
• “While Baldwin is going to take serious effort and money to oust, it’s very doable, but I think no Republican wants to jump the gun, they want to be ready to jump in and have all their ducks in a row,” Rachel Reisner, Wisconsin GOP communications director, told the DCNF. 

GOP operatives in Wisconsin laid out several reasons why they believe no Republican has jumped in the 2024 Senate race to challenge Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, they told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

With Republicans eyeing multiple Democratic-held Senate seats in 2024, Wisconsin is one of the only states where the GOP primary field remains open, with some top-Republicans having already ruled out a bid. Some state operatives argued that potential Republican candidates might be hesitant to jump in and challenge Baldwin, while others were more optimistic about the landscape of such a race, they told the DCNF.

“If you look at the top of the ticket in Wisconsin, you’ll find that it becomes a much closer race. There are fewer independents, so there are fewer decision makers,” Brandon Scholz, a GOP consultant in Wisconsin, told the DCNF. “So it’s a much more competitive state, so in a very competitive state, you have a very, very, very competitive campaign, as well as the party’s infrastructure being very, very competitive.”

Scholz pointed to the 2022 elections for Republicans like gubernatorial nominee Tim Michels, Sen. Ron Johnson and Rep. Derrick Van Orden as examples of the changing political landscape in Wisconsin that could pose hurdles for a GOP Senate candidate.

Michels tried to oust Democratic Gov. Tony Evers with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, but lost by 3.3 points. Johnson narrowly won reelection by 1 point, but won by larger margins in 2010 and 2016. Scholz also argued that Van Orden won his seat by a smaller margin than expected.

The Republican operatives noted how previous candidates for a number of different GOP primaries have waited until the election year to jump in, and believe candidates in other races are likely already running due to their states having earlier nominating contests.

“The last time a Republican successfully defeated an incumbent Democratic Senator, he got in the race in May of the election year — that was Ron Johnson in 2010,” Mark Graul, Republican strategist in Wisconsin, told the DCNF.

Wisconsin Republican Reps. Mike Gallagher and Tom Tiffany have both ruled out a run for Senate, leaving the GOP primary wide open. The only available polling for this race is from late May, which indicated Baldwin would beat Gallagher by only 1 point, and that a plurality of Wisconsin voters are ready for a new senator.

“There’s no question that Sen. Baldwin has shown herself repeatedly to be an incredibly hardworking and successful political candidate,” said Graul. “I think some of the folks who are kind of normally seen as possible U.S. Senate candidates have good gigs [with] what they’re doing now, and they also recognize, ‘hey, do I really want to give up this really good gig what I’m doing now, to take on somebody who has been incredibly formidable every time she ran for whatever office she ran for?’”

The Cook Political Report characterizes Baldwin’s seat in the “Lean D” category for 2024, along with races in Michigan, Montana, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Arizona independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin and Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s seats are all considered “Toss Up” races.

Potential GOP hopefuls are taking their time to assess the uphill battle of running against a strong incumbent with powerful fundraising and campaigning abilities, according to the operatives.

Baldwin hasn’t lost an election since her political career began in the 1990s, and was first elected to the upper chamber in 2012, according to Ballotpedia. Prior to her time in the Senate, Baldwin served in both chambers of the state legislature.

The senator raised a total of $3 million in campaign contributions during the second fundraising quarter of 2023, and ended the period with $5.5 million cash on hand, according to the Federal Election Commission.

“While Baldwin is going to take serious effort and money to oust, it’s very doable, but I think no Republican wants to jump the gun, they want to be ready to jump in and have all their ducks in a row,” Rachel Reisner, Wisconsin GOP communications director, told the DCNF. “The various Republicans on the ground are engaging with both [potential candidates] to see how we can most effectively oust Baldwin and unite behind a Republican quickly.”

Eric Hovde and Scott Mayer, the two Republicans who are weighing a bid, are both businessmen who have the ability to self-fund their potential campaigns, according to the operatives.

Hovde ran for Senate in 2012, but lost in the primary to former Gov. Tommy Thompson, who was later defeated by Baldwin. The businessman is the executive of various companies in the investment banking and real-estate fields, and also founded a nonprofit to help children in need and provide funding for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) research.

A Wisconsin Republican strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly on the Senate race, believes Hovde’s previous experience with a Senate campaign bodes well for him, and told the DCNF he also has the ability to unite the party establishment and the grassroots movement.

“He ran a very strong campaign against one of the most popular, if not the most popular politician, in Wisconsin history, [against] Tommy Thompson, and give him a run for his money,” said the strategist. “Eric’s maintained a good presence with the grassroots, with talk radio, and he’s maintained a good brand. He didn’t tarnish himself in that campaign.”

Mayer is the founder of a staffing firm, a former president of the Wisconsin Association of Staffing Services and sits on the board for two other organizations. Since the businessman doesn’t have any previous political experience, there might be a “higher learning curve” for his potential campaign, the GOP strategist said, but noted Johnson was in a similar position in 2010.

It’s unclear whether Hovde and Mayer will both run for Senate, or if Republicans can consolidate support around one contender, according to the GOP strategist.

“We’re talking to top tier candidates in Wisconsin who will have the resources and message to hold Tammy Baldwin accountable for her blind loyalty to Joe Biden’s disastrous presidency,” Mike Berg, communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, told the DCNF in a statement.

Scholz and Graul believe the potential of having Trump as the nominee, who is currently leading the GOP primary field for president by over 40 points, might be a deterring factor for some candidates to throw their hat in the race. The Republican operatives fear such a candidacy might be a drag on the ticket for other Republicans across the state.

“I think it would be more attractive for some if they didn’t have to deal with the drama that comes along with sharing a ticket with Donald Trump,” said Graul. “If you said that you spend more time answering questions about Donald Trump than you do about your position on you know, the economy or inflation or abortion even.”

Trump broke a decades-long Democratic streak for the presidential election when he won Wisconsin in 2016. The state flipped back blue in 2020 when Biden beat the former president by less than one point, according to Politico.

“Donald Trump is the only Republican presidential candidate to win Wisconsin since 1984, so it is wrong to assume he would be a drag on the ticket in Wisconsin,” said Berg.

The Republican strategist countered that having Trump head the ticket in 2024 could boost voter turnout, and help the eventual GOP nominee who challenges Baldwin.

While Reisner acknowledged the potential for Trump to have a negative affect on other GOP candidacies, she argued the state would rather have the former president than another Biden administration. Biden could be a drag on the ticket for Baldwin in 2024, as the president isn’t popular in Wisconsin largely due to the economy, said Reisner.

“Wisconsin voters across the board know that ‘Bidenomics’ is not working,” said Reisner. “[Baldwin’s] right on board with the Biden administration touting runaway spending and the economy when Wisconsinites are not better off under the Biden administration.”

Hovde, Mayer and Baldwin did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s requests for comment.