LOS ANGELES – Pop star Taylor Swift reinvigorated the New York Jets last week with her appearance at Met Life Stadium to see her boyfriend Travis Kelce. Now movie theaters across the state are wondering if Swift’s appearance and a new movie playing in theaters will help put people back in theater seats across the Garden State.
Swift, who has previously dominated concert tours and made voting trendy among her fan base, is set to make a notable impact on the pandemic-stricken movie box office with her concert film.
Scheduled for release on Oct. 13, “Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour” will be a significant trial for the idea that such “alternative content” can pull audiences back to theaters and provide more consistent revenue in an industry dependent on fluctuating movie release schedules. Box office pundits and studio bigwigs predict Swift’s film could rake in $120 million during its opening weekend, providing a boost for chains like AMC Theatres and Cineworld.
However, while the film releases of Swift and pop icon Beyonce can potentially alleviate some of the economic wounds inflicted by Hollywood strikes, it might be ambitious to expect these titles to fully compensate for the revenue loss due to the postponement of anticipated films like “Dune: Part 2” and “Ghostbusters.”
Such alternative content has seen surges in advance sales. Swift’s “The Eras Tour” pre-sales have been likened to the anticipation for a Star Wars or Marvel epic. Over its run in North America, box office analysts forecast the documentary to earn between $150 million and $225 million. Meanwhile, Beyonce’s “Renaissance Tour” film, set for a December release, is projected to generate $75 million in ticket sales.
Cinemas, such as B&B Theatres, plan to enhance the viewing experience, introducing features like pink carpets, photo booths, and interactive sessions where fans can dance during the screening.
But there’s only so much these pop sensations can do. Notwithstanding an impressive November movie line-up, December looks relatively sparse, lacking a blockbuster of the caliber of 2021’s “Spider-Man: No Way Home” or 2022’s “Avatar: The Way of Water.”
Initially, box office tracker Bruce Nash predicted 2023 ticket sales would touch $10 billion. However, owing to the strikes, he’s adjusted this estimate to roughly $9.6 billion, which, while being 32% higher than the previous year, is still 16% below the 2019 pre-pandemic revenue of $11.4 billion.
A significant concern for theater owners is the potential disruption of next year’s film line-up due to the SAG-AFTRA strike. Even if an agreement emerges by Thanksgiving, actual movie production may not recommence until January 2024 due to holiday interruptions, affecting the flow of new movie releases next year.
Striking Hollywood actors resumed negotiations with major studio representatives on Monday. The discussions commenced a week after a separate contract agreement was reached with Hollywood writers, who initiated their strike about ten weeks before the actors.
Analysts from Wedbush Securities are optimistic, believing the short-term fallout from the strikes will be limited if an agreement is forged this month. The repercussions on the 2024 release schedule under this scenario “will likely be mild.