MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – The contest to win Mexico’s presidential election on June 2, 2024, has tightened slightly, but ruling party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum still has a massive lead over her main rival, an opinion poll showed on Wednesday.
The October-November survey by polling firm Parametria showed Sheinbaum of the leftist National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) with 52% support, well ahead of Xochitl Galvez, candidate of a right-left alliance of three parties, with 25%.
A prior survey by the firm published early last month had given former Mexico City Mayor Sheinbaum 55% support, and Galvez, a businesswoman-turned-politician, 20%.
If victorious in the election, Sheinbaum or Galvez would be Mexico’s first female president.
The latest Parametria poll gave a third contender, Samuel Garcia of the opposition center-left Citizens’ Movement (MC), 10% backing. Some 13% of respondents gave no preference.
Francisco Abundis, head of Parametria, said the slight reduction in Sheinbaum’s lead was probably due to the fact she received a bump in support in the aftermath of MORENA’s primary process in September when she secured the nomination.
“That said, it’s a big lead and we’re looking at a scenario where she would have an absolute majority (in Congress),” Abundis told Reuters.
Sheinbaum has the backing of Mexico’s popular president, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who has consistently polled support of around 60% or more, depending on the pollster.
Lopez Obrador cannot run again because Mexican law restricts presidents to a single six-year term.
The next president is likely to face pressure to reduce widespread gang violence and pursue policies that enable Mexico to benefit from a trend among businesses to move industrial supply chains to North America from Asia known as nearshoring.
Parametria said its survey comprised polling of 1,600 people through October and November, with a margin of error of between 2.4 and 3.5 percentage points.
(Reporting by Dave Graham in Mexico City; Editing by Matthew Lewis)
