(Reuters) – J.P.Morgan said on Thursday it expects the Bank of England to start cutting interest rates in August this year, citing a possible easing in inflation and optimism about a soft landing.
The brokerage now expects a 75-basis point rate cut by end 2024, taking J.P.Morgan’s policy rate forecast to 4.5%, while the central bank’s current benchmark rate stands at 5.25%.
J.P.Morgan had earlier estimated BoE to start cutting rates only in November.
Despite a surprise rise in the latest inflation report in December, overall, British consumer prices began to fall faster than expected in the latter months of last year, after having surged to a 41-year high of 11.1% in late 2022.
The easing in consumer prices had led many economists to predict that it would be back at the BoE’s 2% target by April or May this year, around 18 months sooner than the BoE was predicting.
“The optics of even a brief episode of sub-target inflation is likely to place additional pressure for it (BoE) to start cutting this year”, J.P.Morgan said.
The brokerage also raised its UK economic growth forecast to 0.3% in 2024, compared with a prior estimate of 0.2%.
(Reporting by Priyadarshini Basu in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)
