West Long Branch, NJ – Despite an uptick in independent voter support, Nikki Haley, the former Governor of South Carolina and U.N. Ambassador, still trails behind former President Donald Trump in the New Hampshire Republican primary, according to the latest Monmouth University-Washington Post Poll. Trump continues to lead decisively on key issues such as immigration, the economy, and foreign policy.
In the recent poll, 52% of potential voters favor Trump, while 34% support Haley. This marks a significant 16-point increase for Haley since November, yet Trump’s dominance remains unshaken, also seeing a rise from 46% in the fall. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who exited the race on Sunday, garnered 8% support, a figure that has remained relatively stable since November. Notably, Trump’s support base remains consistent, with strong backing from groups including MAGA supporters, the very conservative, white evangelicals, and non-college graduates. Haley has seen a rise in support among college graduates but hasn’t dented Trump’s share in this demographic.
A notable shift has been observed in the number of registered independents planning to vote in the Republican primary, rising from 52% in November to 63%. Over a third of these voters supported Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 general election. Haley leads among independents with 48% support compared to Trump’s 38%, but this is not sufficient to close the gap with the front-runner.
Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, commented on the findings. “Despite a higher turnout of Democratic-leaning independents in the GOP primary, Haley is unable to surpass Trump, whose base remains more committed and motivated.”
The poll also revealed that 69% of Trump supporters are extremely motivated to vote in the primary, compared to 55% of Haley’s supporters. Trump’s favorability remains stable at 59%, while Haley’s has declined from 56% to 46%. Governor Chris Sununu’s endorsement of Haley appears to have had minimal impact, with 83% of respondents saying it does not influence their choice.
In terms of issue trustworthiness, Trump outperforms Haley across several areas. He leads significantly in immigration policy (62% trust him more compared to 26% for Haley), economic policy (58% to 29%), and foreign policy (57% to 32%). The divide is narrower concerning abortion policy.
The poll also indicates a decrease in voter engagement compared to the 2016 primary, with only 23% of potential primary voters having been personally contacted by a campaign this year.
Murray noted, “The sense of inevitability around this year’s nomination contest seems to be reducing voter engagement compared to 2016.”
The Monmouth University-Washington Post Poll was conducted from January 16 to 20, 2024, and included 712 potential Republican presidential primary voters in New Hampshire. The margin of error for the sample is +/- 4.2 percentage points.