Murphy brushes off GOP surge in New Jersey as ‘Trump moment’ but admits 2025 race will be tight
Trenton, NJ — New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy is downplaying concerns of a political red wave in the Garden State after Democrats saw significant losses in the latest election, framing the shift as a temporary reaction to Donald Trump rather than a lasting ideological change.
Speaking after data revealed a dramatic swing from blue to red across multiple New Jersey districts — particularly in Latino-heavy areas — Murphy acknowledged the nearly 10-point drop in Democratic support compared to 2020, when Joe Biden carried the state by 16 points. This time, Kamala Harris’s margin was just under six.
“I think it was Donald Trump. I think it was the moment in time,” Murphy said, noting that similar shifts occurred in other deep-blue states including New York, Maryland, Illinois, and California.
10 Things Phil Murphy Said on New Jersey’s Red Shift
“I think it was Donald Trump. I think it was the moment in time as opposed to, is this a big red shift?”
“So New Jersey, New York, Illinois, Maryland, California — I believe each had a plus or minus 10-point shift similar to the one we had.”
“He [Trump] won one of our counties up north, Passaic County. But there were four candidates on the county level, Democrats, all of whom won handily.”
“I don’t think it’s a broad-based swing.”
“The Republicans have been out-registering the Democrats now for many, many months, which is concerning.”
“I think the events of the past 120-odd days have impacted this. I think the answer is yes.”
“When I ran for the first time in 2017, Donald Trump was president. In many respects, we ran against what we thought at that time were policies inconsistent with who we are as a country — and we won handily.”
“It’ll be closer. The Republicans, I think, will nominate somebody who’s got good name recognition and they have run before.”
“But I think on the margin the Democrats are going to be favored.”
Despite Republican momentum — including a flipped county in North Jersey — Murphy pointed to down-ballot Democratic wins in the same area as proof that the state remains fundamentally Democratic. Still, he admitted the GOP has been consistently out-registering Democrats in New Jersey for months, calling it “concerning” ahead of the upcoming 2025 governor’s race.
Murphy, who first ran and won in 2017 during Trump’s presidency, believes national politics will again influence the outcome. He expects the Republican nominee to be a recognizable figure and anticipates a “very good election,” though he maintained Democrats will likely have an edge — barely.
“It’ll be closer,” Murphy said. “But I think on the margin the Democrats are going to be favored.”
The Democratic primary field remains crowded and undecided, while Republicans are expected to coalesce around a well-known contender.