Trenton, NJ – A new internal polling memo obtained from Neighborhood Research and Media shows both gubernatorial candidates, Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill, are viewed more unfavorably than favorably among likely New Jersey voters, with each struggling to expand beyond their partisan bases.
The survey, based on 311 voter interviews conducted between October 6 and 9, found both nominees “slightly upside down” in favorability ratings, with Ciattarelli registering a 30–31 net negative and Sherrill at 27–29.
The memorandum, authored by Republican strategist Rick Shaftan, outlines that the race remains highly polarized, with each candidate performing strongly only within their party.
Sherrill, the Democratic nominee, is 6–56 unfavorable among Republicans, while Ciattarelli is 6–53 among Democrats, highlighting deep partisan divides that leave limited crossover appeal for either side.
Independents lean toward Ciattarelli
Among undeclared voters, the poll shows Ciattarelli leading with a 32–19 favorable split, while Sherrill trails at 21–35. Shaftan’s analysis suggests the Republican candidate benefits from linking Sherrill to the state’s “wrong track” sentiment, while Sherrill has yet to motivate her own base.
The report notes that both candidates face “weak points” with voters who think New Jersey is on the wrong track, with Ciattarelli only marginally outperforming Sherrill among these groups. Ciattarelli is described as strong among conservatives, while Sherrill’s base remains largely liberal but less energized.
Gender gap dominates voter landscape
The memo highlights a sharp gender divide mirroring the statewide ballot trends. Ciattarelli leads 38–25 with men but trails 22–37 with women. Among married voters, he holds an advantage with men (46–23) but is even or behind with married women (27–34). Sherrill’s favorables are weakest among married women, with the memo noting they are “not totally motivated to come out.”
Sherrill’s overall challenge, according to the memo, is turning awareness into enthusiasm — especially among female and moderate voters who remain uncertain about her record.
What voters like — and don’t like — about the candidates
Among Ciattarelli’s supporters, 22 percent said they liked him for his Republican or conservative stance, while 19 percent cited tax cuts and 15 percent said they liked his platform. His negatives were defined by 57 percent who called him “too pro-Trump” or “MAGA.”
Sherrill’s favorables centered on her military service and demeanor, with 17 percent citing her background and 13 percent her Democratic identity. Her negatives included being seen as “vague on issues” and “weak on leadership,” with mentions of her record and prior controversies.
Analysts see message battle shaping up
Shaftan’s memo concludes the election will hinge on framing: Sherrill pushing a referendum on Donald Trump, and Ciattarelli aiming to make it one on taxes and state direction.
“Those lines have been drawn,” the memo reads, “and they’ll solidify over the next few weeks.”
With both nominees underwater and few undecided voters left, the next debate and closing messages may determine which narrative New Jersey voters choose to believe.
