Washington, D.C. – Rising gas prices continue to weigh heavily on American voters, with a new national survey finding that two-thirds say fuel costs will likely influence their vote in November.
The latest The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights, found that 66% of registered voters say gas and fuel prices are likely to affect their decisions at the ballot box. Of those surveyed, 37% said fuel costs are “very likely” to influence their vote.
The poll also found that 49% of respondents believe wars and international conflicts affecting global oil markets are the primary reason gasoline prices remain high.
Global conflicts seen as biggest factor
According to the survey, nearly half of registered voters pointed to international instability as the leading driver behind today’s fuel prices.
Only 9% blamed oil and gas companies, while 8% cited federal government policies as the primary cause. Another 19% said all of those factors contribute equally.
Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights, said those selecting “all equally responsible” may recognize that fuel prices are influenced by several interconnected issues.
“The ‘all equally responsible’ response may actually reflect a more nuanced view – or in some cases skepticism of overly simple political explanations,” Noble told The Center Square.
“It suggests that while voters may lean toward blaming global conflict most, a meaningful share sees the issue as broader and more interconnected than that.”
Fuel prices remain important across income levels
The poll found concerns about fuel costs span all income groups, although lower-income households were slightly more likely to say gasoline prices will affect their vote.
Among voters earning less than $50,000 annually, 69% said gas prices would likely influence their ballot choice.
That compares with:
- 67% of voters earning $50,000 to $100,000 annually.
- 62% of voters earning more than $100,000.
Political affiliation also influenced responses.
The survey found 81% of Democrats said gas prices are likely to affect their vote, compared with 56% of independents and 53% of Republicans.
Analysts point to conflict with Iran
The findings come after months of volatility in global oil markets following the U.S. military conflict with Iran.
According to Brown University’s Iran War Energy Cost Tracker, Americans have paid an estimated $61.8 billion in additional fuel costs since the conflict began, averaging approximately $471 per household.
Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former International Monetary Fund official, said voters are making a connection between the conflict and fuel prices.
“If most people think that the war caused high gas prices, they also think that this was a war of choice,” Lachman told The Center Square.
“So that’s not good for President Trump, because they’re thinking that the war caused those high prices, and he was the one who initiated the war.”
Lachman also said he was surprised more respondents did not identify the conflict as the leading cause.
According to data cited by The Center Square, Brent crude oil prices climbed from about $71 per barrel before the conflict to approximately $124 per barrel in April before retreating to around $74 per barrel.
AAA data showed the national average gasoline price peaked near $4.53 per gallon before falling to approximately $3.92.
Inflation continues to pressure household budgets
Fuel costs are only one part of the financial strain facing many households.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer prices increased 4.2% during the 12 months ending in May, marking the fastest annual inflation rate since April 2023.
Several everyday grocery staples have also seen notable price increases.
BLS data cited by The Center Square shows:
- Ground beef has increased from $5.55 to $6.75 per pound since January 2025.
- Ground coffee has risen from $7.02 to $9.51 per pound during the same period.
- Real wages have declined to levels comparable to those recorded when President Donald Trump began his current term in January 2025.
Jeff Colgan, a professor at Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, said consumers witnessed a direct relationship between geopolitical events and prices at the pump.
“Voters are reacting understandably to the way fuel prices skyrocketed after President Trump’s decision to attack Iran on February 28,” Colgan told The Center Square.
“Everyone could see the direct connection between higher prices at the pump and this war.”
The Center Square said the poll reflects how fuel prices remain a significant issue for voters heading into the November election, even as gasoline prices have declined from their recent peak.
Key Points
- A new Center Square poll found 66% of voters say gas prices will influence their vote in November.
- Nearly half of respondents blamed wars and global conflicts for higher fuel prices, while fewer cited government policy or oil companies alone.
- Analysts say fuel costs remain a major economic concern alongside inflation and rising grocery prices.
