Newark, NJ – Nearly every poll in New Jersey had the gubernatorial race between Jack Ciattarelli and Mikie Sherrill in a dead heat through much of October and now, one major, and often reliable polling company is saying something unusual happened on election night.
A national polling firm said Thursday it is “angry and disappointed” over New Jersey’s election night results, calling the outcome “something unusual” that defied months of data and expectations.
“Something unusual happened in New Jersey,” the firm posted on X. “We’re still unpacking why.”
Quantus Insights, a leading national pollster, said its models showed Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill maintaining a modest but clear lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the final days before the vote.
But when ballots were counted, the results sharply diverged from nearly every survey, leaving analysts across the country searching for answers.
Key Points
- Quantus Insights said its late-October poll had Sherrill leading by 3 points statewide
- Nearly all major pollsters missed the final result by a wide margin
- The firm said turnout and demographic data on election night “made little sense”
Polling data painted a steady Sherrill lead
According to Quantus Insights, its first Labor Day poll had Sherrill up by 10 points, a figure that narrowed to just three points by late October as Ciattarelli gained among independents and energized Republicans. The firm surveyed 100,000 likely voters in its final sample, finding signs of a competitive race but not one that pointed toward a dramatic reversal. Internal models projected Sherrill winning by as much as six points.
The pollster noted little change in Hispanic voter margins from 2024 levels, and only late movement among Black voters, who largely backed Sherrill. Ciattarelli’s support among that group remained in the single digits.
Election night breaks every expectation
When results rolled in Tuesday night, both the turnout patterns and demographic breakdowns surprised political observers. Quantus said exit polls, regional vote totals, and precinct-level returns were inconsistent with pre-election expectations.
“Something unusual happened in New Jersey,” the firm posted on X. “We’re still unpacking why.”
In one notable example, Belleville — a township that is roughly half Hispanic and whose mayor endorsed Ciattarelli — delivered more than 62% of its vote to Sherrill.
Analysts see echoes of 2021 surprises
Election experts noted similarities to New Jersey’s 2021 gubernatorial race, when polls underestimated Republican strength but in reverse. This time, the polling error favored Democrats, an inversion that has deepened confusion among data analysts.
Quantus said it is conducting an internal audit of its New Jersey data, including its weighting of early voters and late deciders. The company said nearly all major pollsters “missed it at similar scale,” suggesting a possible systematic issue rather than a localized error.
Questions linger over turnout modeling
Turnout among independents and first-time midterm voters is being reexamined as a possible explanation. Analysts are also studying whether unreported changes in voter registration patterns or last-minute mobilization efforts affected the electorate.
Quantus has pledged to release a full report once its review is complete, calling the discrepancy “one of the most puzzling polling outcomes we’ve seen in years.”
