MADISON, NJ – With summer in full swing and the New Jersey governor’s race shifting into high gear, a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll shows Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding an eight-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, 45 percent to 37 percent among likely voters, with 16 percent still undecided.
The survey reveals a split battlefield: Sherrill maintains stronger loyalty among Democrats than Ciattarelli does with Republicans, and the GOP nominee’s hopes may hinge on pulling in independents. The poll also tested how voter preference shifts depending on whether the race is framed around local or national issues.
When respondents were asked about New Jersey-specific topics such as energy, flooding, and NJ Transit before reconsidering their vote choice, Ciattarelli’s support among independents jumped by 7 points, mostly from undecided voters moving his way. But when questions focused on national issues like President Trump and immigration, Ciattarelli’s independent support dropped by 4 points, although it slightly firmed up backing among Republicans.
“Unless something goes horribly awry, partisans are going to vote for their party’s candidate,” said Dan Cassino, a Professor of Government and Politics at Fairleigh Dickinson University, and the Executive Director of the FDU Poll. “While Republicans have been narrowing the gap, there are still more Democrats than Republicans in the state, and Ciattarelli needs to start pulling in more independents and Democrats if he wants to win.”
Trump’s polarizing effect also emerged: 81 percent of voters who approve of his job performance back Ciattarelli, but 13 percent remain undecided and 4 percent support Sherrill. Among Trump disapprovers, Sherrill wins 77 percent, but Ciattarelli still claims 5 percent.
Demographically, Sherrill holds strong leads among Black voters (58 to 20) and younger voters under 30 (46 to 24), while the race tightens among middle-aged voters and seniors. White voters are essentially split, with Sherrill at 43 percent and Ciattarelli at 42 percent.
The poll suggests that keeping the campaign focused on state-level issues may be Ciattarelli’s best chance to close the gap, while nationalizing the race could lock in Sherrill’s advantage.
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Key Points
- Sherrill leads Ciattarelli 45% to 37% in New Jersey governor’s race, with 16% undecided.
- Ciattarelli gains support from independents when the race is framed around local issues, loses when framed nationally.
- Trump remains a divisive factor, influencing but not fully determining voter alignment.
Poll experiment finds Ciattarelli gains ground on local issues but loses edge when focus shifts to national politics.
