Factbox-Wall Street sees gray skies ahead for equities as Fed tightens policy

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FILE PHOTO: A Wall Street sign outside the New York Stock Exchange

(Reuters) – With inflation in the United States running at levels not seen in four decades, market participants worry the Federal Reserve will need to deliver hefty rate hikes to tame the surge in prices, which might push the economy into a recession.

These concerns have led to wall sa rout in U.S. equities in recent months, and prompted banks to roll out bearish forecasts. [.N]

Here are some estimates from major banks on the possibility of a recession in the United States:


Bank Commentary on New year-end target

recession target for

S&P 500

Goldman Estimates a 30% 4,300 4,900

Sachs chance of a

recession in the

U.S. over the

next year

Barclays Plc Risks to S&P 500 4,500* 4,800

“remain firmly

stacked to the

downside” given





Wells Fargo

Expects a 3,900 4,300


recession to

begin soon and

last until the

middle of next


Bank of

America Corp Forecasts a mild 3,600* 4,500

recession this


Credit Says there is a As low as

Suisse high recession 3,350 in

risk for the bear-market

U.S. in the scenario

second half of

2023 and for

Europe this year

JPMorgan Says Fed’s 75 4,900* 5,050

Chase & Co bps rate hike

increases risk

of recession

starting later

this year or in


HSBC Expects a severe 4,450 4,900

Holdings PLC slowdown in

global growth


in Q2 and Q3 of


UBS Group AG Does not expect 3,900* 4,300

a U.S. or global

recession in

2022 or 2023,

but says risks

of a hard

landing are


Deutsche CEO flags 4,750 5,250

Bank AG considerable

recession risk

in 2023 in

Europe and U.S.

Source: Research notes from banks, *media reports

(Reporting by Niket Nishant, Manya Saini and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri, Amy Caren Daniel and Vinay Dwivedi)