(Reuters) – With inflation in the United States running at levels not seen in four decades, market participants worry the Federal Reserve will need to deliver hefty rate hikes to tame the surge in prices, which might push the economy into a recession.
These concerns have led to wall sa rout in U.S. equities in recent months, and prompted banks to roll out bearish forecasts. [.N]
Here are some estimates from major banks on the possibility of a recession in the United States:
Old
Bank Commentary on New year-end target
recession target for
S&P 500
Goldman Estimates a 30% 4,300 4,900
Sachs chance of a
recession in the
U.S. over the
next year
Barclays Plc Risks to S&P 500 4,500* 4,800
“remain firmly
stacked to the
downside” given
numerous
negative
near-term
catalysts
Wells Fargo
Expects a 3,900 4,300
moderate
recession to
begin soon and
last until the
middle of next
year.
Bank of
America Corp Forecasts a mild 3,600* 4,500
recession this
year
Credit Says there is a As low as
Suisse high recession 3,350 in
risk for the bear-market
U.S. in the scenario
second half of
2023 and for
Europe this year
JPMorgan Says Fed’s 75 4,900* 5,050
Chase & Co bps rate hike
increases risk
of recession
starting later
this year or in
2023
HSBC Expects a severe 4,450 4,900
Holdings PLC slowdown in
global growth
momentum
in Q2 and Q3 of
2022
UBS Group AG Does not expect 3,900* 4,300
a U.S. or global
recession in
2022 or 2023,
but says risks
of a hard
landing are
rising
Deutsche CEO flags 4,750 5,250
Bank AG considerable
recession risk
in 2023 in
Europe and U.S.
Source: Research notes from banks, *media reports
(Reporting by Niket Nishant, Manya Saini and Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri, Amy Caren Daniel and Vinay Dwivedi)
