TRENTON, N.J. — Rep. Mikie Sherrill holds a clear lead in New Jersey’s Democratic gubernatorial primary with 28% support, according to a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey. The poll shows a tight cluster of contenders behind her, with 11% each for Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, and Rep. Josh Gottheimer.
Montclair Mayor Sean Spiller follows with 10% and former Senate President Steve Sweeney draws 5%. About 24% of Democratic primary voters remain undecided with just under a month to go before the June 2025 primary.
“Rep. Sherrill had the most significant movement since the January Emerson poll in the Garden State, with her 18-point increase driven by solidifying support among voters over 50, at 33%, as well as primary voters with a college degree, 31% of whom support Sherrill,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
On the Republican side, 2021 gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli leads the field with 44% support. Conservative radio host Bill Spadea follows with 18%, and Assemblyman Jon Bramnick garners 8%. Twenty-three percent of GOP voters are undecided.
President Donald Trump holds a split approval rating in New Jersey with 47% approving and 47% disapproving of his job performance. Governor Phil Murphy’s approval stands at 40%, while 45% disapprove.
Voter priorities and policy divides emerge
Fifty-three percent of respondents said they want the next governor to work with the Trump administration, while 47% prefer someone who will oppose it. That includes 76% of Democrats who prefer opposition, compared to 90% of Republicans who want collaboration. Sixty percent of independents favor working with Trump.
The top issues for voters are economic: 45% say the economy is their primary concern, followed by housing affordability at 12%. Eleven percent listed threats to democracy and 9% cited immigration.
“Pocketbook issues will be central in the gubernatorial race, with 57% of voters citing the economy or housing affordability as their top concern,” Kimball said. “At the same time, immigration may become an issue in the general election as voters support Trump’s deportation policy, even as they believe tariffs will hurt the economy.”
Forty-six percent of voters said recent deportations of undocumented immigrants made their communities more safe, while 24% felt less safe and 31% saw no impact.
Newark mayor arrest and airport concerns draw attention
The recent arrest of Newark Mayor Ras Baraka for trespassing at an immigration detention center has drawn mixed reactions. Forty-four percent support the arrest, while 38% oppose it, and 18% are unsure or lack enough information to say.
Four out of five voters reported paying close attention to recent issues at Newark Liberty International Airport. When asked who is most responsible for air traffic control problems, 31% blamed the Trump administration, 29% the Federal Aviation Administration, 20% the Biden administration, 8% the Murphy administration, and 6% Congress.
Among party lines, 49% of Democrats blamed the Trump administration, while 38% of Republicans blamed Biden. Independents mostly pointed to the FAA at 34%, followed by Trump at 29% and Biden at 16%.
A majority of voters — 53% — said they would feel unsafe taking a flight from Newark Airport.
Transit and trade views show dissatisfaction
On public transportation, 57% of New Jersey voters said NJ Transit service has stayed the same since last summer, while 31% think it has worsened. Just 12% believe it has improved.
Regarding trade policy, 54% of voters believe increasing tariffs with major U.S. trading partners will hurt the economy. Thirty-seven percent believe tariffs will help, and 9% think they will have no effect.
The Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey was conducted May 11-13 with a sample of 1,000 registered New Jersey voters and carries a credibility interval of +/- 3 percentage points.
