ROANOKE, V.A. — Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger is leading the race to become Virginia’s next governor, according to a new poll from Roanoke College, positioning the Red Bank, New Jersey, native as the early frontrunner ahead of the November election.
Spanberger, who moved to Virginia at age 13, received support from 43% of respondents in the mid-May poll, while Republican opponent and current Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears received 26%. Twenty-eight percent of respondents said they were still undecided.
The survey, conducted among more than 650 Virginians, has a margin of error of 5.25%.
“Six months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director of the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College.
Independents favor Spanberger as GOP faces undecided base
Spanberger is showing strong support among independents, a key demographic in the battleground state. However, the poll suggests a sizable number of Republican voters remain undecided, a group likely to lean toward Earle-Sears as the election approaches.
Spanberger’s overall favorability is evenly split, with 41% viewing her favorably and 40% unfavorably. These numbers remain consistent with findings from a previous November survey.
Earle-Sears’ favorability has declined, with only 32% of respondents viewing her positively compared to 48% who view her unfavorably. Dr. Wilson noted this trend as “cause for concern” for the Republican campaign.
The poll also found that both political parties are viewed negatively by voters. Fifty-one percent of respondents had an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party, while 63% viewed the Republican Party unfavorably.
National figures show limited favorability among Virginia voters
Among other political figures, Governor Glenn Youngkin received a 44% favorable and 50% unfavorable rating. Former President Donald Trump’s favorability was even lower, with only 33% viewing him positively and 64% unfavorably.
Spanberger, whose father was a police officer in New Jersey and mother a nurse, is seeking to become the first woman elected governor of Virginia. If elected, she would also be the first person born outside the state to hold the office in recent decades.
