DETROIT, MI — A new Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris trailing former President Donald Trump in four key swing states while the two are tied in Wisconsin. The poll, conducted between July 22 and 23, indicates that Trump leads Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, with a tie in Wisconsin.

In Arizona, Trump holds 49% support compared to Harris’s 44%. In Georgia, Trump leads with 48% to Harris’s 46%. Michigan sees Trump at 46% and Harris at 45%. In Pennsylvania, Trump has 48% while Harris has 46%. Both candidates have 47% support in Wisconsin.

Support for Harris has increased compared to President Joe Biden’s numbers from earlier this month. Harris has gained four points in Arizona, five points in Georgia, three points in Michigan, three points in Pennsylvania, and four points in Wisconsin.

“Young voters have shifted toward Harris: her support compared to Biden increased by 16 points in Arizona, eight in Georgia, five in Michigan, 11 in Pennsylvania, and one in Wisconsin since earlier polling this month,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.

Regarding Harris’s potential running mate, voters in different states have shown preferences for various candidates. In Arizona, 36% of voters prefer Senator Mark Kelly. In Michigan, 27% favor Governor Gretchen Whitmer. In Pennsylvania, 40% support Governor Josh Shapiro. In Wisconsin, 14% back Bernie Sanders, while 12% support Pete Buttigieg.

Among Democratic voters, 42% in Arizona prefer Senator Mark Kelly, 57% in Pennsylvania prefer Governor Josh Shapiro, and 36% in Michigan favor Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Democratic voters in Georgia and Wisconsin are more divided, with no single candidate receiving more than around 20% support.

A majority of Democratic voters in each state believe Kamala Harris should be nominated at the Democratic National Convention this August.

In the four U.S. Senate elections within these swing states, the Democratic candidates continue to lead their Republican opponents. In Arizona, Democrat Ruben Gallego leads Republican Kari Lake, 46% to 42%. In Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican Mike Rogers, 45% to 41%. In Pennsylvania, Democrat Bob Casey leads Republican David McCormick, 48% to 44%. In Wisconsin, Democrat Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde, 49% to 43%.

Favorability and Approval Ratings

Harris’s favorability ratings are mixed across the states, with 45% favorable and 53% unfavorable in Arizona, 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable in Georgia, 47% favorable and 50% unfavorable in Michigan, 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable in Pennsylvania, and 49% favorable and 50% unfavorable in Wisconsin. Trump’s favorability ratings show 49% favorable and 51% unfavorable in Arizona, 49% favorable and 50% unfavorable in Georgia, 48% favorable and 51% unfavorable in Michigan, 46% favorable and 53% unfavorable in Pennsylvania, and 47% favorable and 53% unfavorable in Wisconsin.

President Biden’s approval ratings are notably low, with 35% approval in Arizona, 40% in Georgia, 39% in Michigan, 37% in Pennsylvania, and 39% in Wisconsin. Gubernatorial approval ratings vary, with Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs at 37% approval, Georgia Governor Brian Kemp at 49%, Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer at 49%, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 49%, and Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers at 44%.

Gender Divide and Top Issues

The poll highlights a gender divide in voter preferences. Male voters favor Trump significantly in all five states, while female voters lean towards Harris. The top issues vary by state, with immigration, the economy, and housing affordability being the most cited concerns in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Methodology

The survey included 800 respondents each from Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan, 850 from Pennsylvania, and 845 from Wisconsin. The data was collected through a combination of cell phone and landline contacts and weighted by statewide voter parameters. The credibility interval for each state is approximately +/- 3.4%.

This survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Emerson College and Nexstar Media. The results reflect current voter sentiments but carry higher credibility intervals for subsets based on demographics, highlighting the need to interpret the findings within the poll’s range of scores.

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