A new Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) Poll reveals that while New Jersey residents generally favor Democratic candidates in the upcoming state legislature elections, the Republican focus on parental control in schools is eroding that support.
When questioned about parental control, voters are six points more likely to favor the Republican candidate and nine points less likely to back the Democratic candidate.
“If voters are thinking about parental control of schools when they go to the ballot box, Democrats are in real trouble,” said Dan Cassino, the director of the FDU Poll.
This November, all 80 seats in the New Jersey General Assembly and 40 seats in the State Senate are up for grabs. Voter turnout in previous state legislative elections has been low, peaking at 40% in the 2021 race that also featured a gubernatorial election. Republicans gained six seats in the General Assembly in the last election, putting Democratic control of the legislative body potentially at risk.
Before being questioned about the parental control issue, 37% of likely New Jersey voters (or those who have already voted) said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 29% for the Republican candidate.
After parental control was brought into the equation, those numbers shifted notably. Among political independents, for example, the preference for Democratic candidates over Republicans flipped from a 20-point lead (28% to 8%) to a 16-point deficit (24% to 8%).
The FDU Poll’s analysis showed that the topic of parental control has a particular impact on political independents while producing only marginal shifts among self-identified Republicans and Democrats.
When voters are not asked about the parental control issue, they favor the Democratic candidate by a 16-point margin (42% to 26%). However, when primed to think about parental control, that lead dwindles to a statistically insignificant one-point advantage (33% to 32%), casting uncertainty over the Democrats’ ability to maintain control of the New Jersey General Assembly.