NEWARK, N.J. – Vice President Kamala Harris holds a 12-point lead over former President Donald Trump in a new presidential poll of New Jersey likely voters, according to results released October 3 by ActiVote.
The poll, conducted among 400 likely voters, showed Harris with significant support across most demographic groups except for rural voters, men, older voters, Republicans, White voters, and those with a high school education or less, where Trump held the advantage. The poll has an expected error margin of 4.9% and was conducted from September 4 to October 2, with a median field date of September 18.
Harris performed strongly among left-leaning voters, securing 96% support from those identified as left or moderate-left. Trump garnered 93% of his core support from right and moderate-right voters. Centrists favored Trump by a small margin of 8%.
The overall lead for Harris is attributed to New Jersey’s larger share of left-leaning voters compared to right-leaning voters.
The survey also highlighted the high level of support Harris received from Black voters in the state. In the sample, which represented 6% of respondents, all Black voters indicated support for Harris, though the pollsters noted the small sample size could contribute to a higher margin of error for this group.
The results reflect a smaller lead for Democrats than in the past two presidential elections. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump in New Jersey by 15.9%, while Hillary Clinton won by 14.1% in 2016.