Trenton, NJ – New Jersey could be seeing a Republican governor if the current trends continue and voters get out to cast their vote.
A new Emerson College poll shows the 2025 New Jersey governor’s race virtually tied, with Democrat Mikie Sherrill holding a razor-thin edge over Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Virtually tied in an election poll is good news for Ciattarelli, as polls have typically favored Democrats, and this new poll had him down by a lot more than he actually lost to Phil Murphy by in 2021.
Sorry, Bill Spadea, your constant trashing of Jack isn’t working like it did in 2021. New Jerseyans are ready for change, with or without you.
The survey found Sherrill leading 49% to 48% among likely voters, well within the poll’s three-point margin of error.
Only 3% of respondents said they were undecided or preferred another candidate, underscoring how sharply divided the state’s electorate remains heading into the final stretch of the campaign.
Key Points
- Emerson College poll shows Mikie Sherrill (D) at 49%, Jack Ciattarelli (R) at 48%
- The one-point gap is within the ±3% margin of error
- The poll mirrors 2021’s tight contest between Ciattarelli and Governor Phil Murphy
Tight race echoes past election
The latest poll, conducted October 25–27 among 1,000 likely voters, reflects a near repeat of New Jersey’s last gubernatorial contest. In 2021, Ciattarelli came within 2.8 points of unseating Governor Phil Murphy, outperforming early polling that showed him trailing by six points. The current numbers suggest another photo finish could be in store this November.
Voter enthusiasm runs high
Emerson’s analysis found strong partisan enthusiasm on both sides. Democrats are coalescing behind Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot and four-term congresswoman from Montclair, while Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman, continues to draw steady support from suburban and South Jersey Republicans. With only a small share of voters still undecided, turnout could be the deciding factor.
Independent voters split evenly
Independent voters, who played a pivotal role in 2021, appear evenly divided between the two candidates. Polling data shows Sherrill performing well in North Jersey and along the Shore, while Ciattarelli holds a slight edge in Central and South Jersey counties.
Final weeks may determine outcome
Both campaigns are expected to ramp up spending and appearances as Election Day approaches. With economic concerns, property taxes, and energy policy dominating voter priorities, analysts say the next debate and final campaign blitz could determine which candidate breaks through.
The Emerson College/PIX11/The Hill poll carries a margin of error of ±3 percentage points.