New Brunswick, NJ – With less than three months until Election Day, Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a 9-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the race to become New Jersey’s next governor, according to a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released Thursday.
Among likely voters, 44% say they would vote for Sherrill if the election were held today, compared to 35% for Ciattarelli. When voters who initially expressed no preference but leaned toward a candidate were included, Sherrill’s lead widened slightly to 47% versus 37%.
The poll, based on a statewide survey of 1,605 likely voters, highlights how familiar partisan lines remain intact. Democrats support Sherrill by a margin of 85%, while 81% of Republicans back Ciattarelli. But independents—a key bloc in statewide elections—are nearly split, with 33% favoring Sherrill and 32% backing Ciattarelli. A large share, 29%, remain undecided.
Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, said the race remains fluid and competitive, with a high number of voters still uncertain. “We simply do not know who will definitively turn out come Election Day,” Koning said in a statement accompanying the poll.
Demographic divides are apparent in the results. Women are more likely to be undecided and less likely to back Ciattarelli compared to men. Sherrill performs strongly among voters of color, with large double-digit leads among Black (69% to 4%), Hispanic (56% to 22%), and Asian voters (47% to 18%). However, she trails Ciattarelli among white voters (38% to 44%).
Voters aged 18 to 34 support Sherrill by a wide margin (48% to 21%), but the gap narrows in older age groups. Ciattarelli leads Sherrill among voters aged 50 to 64 by five points, the only age group where he holds an advantage.
Education and income also shape the race. Sherrill leads by 27 points among college graduates, while Ciattarelli holds a double-digit edge among voters with some college or less. The Democrat also leads comfortably among voters in households earning $150,000 or more annually, while lower-income groups show more split preferences.
Geographically, Sherrill dominates in urban (46% to 23%) and suburban (49% to 30%) regions, while voters in exurban areas and southern parts of the state are closely divided. Shore voters lean slightly toward Sherrill (43% to 39%).
The poll has a margin of error of ±3.7 percentage points and was conducted from July 31 to August 11 using the probability-based Rutgers-Eagleton/SSRS Garden State Panel.
—
Key Points
- Mikie Sherrill leads Jack Ciattarelli 47% to 37% among likely voters, with 12% still undecided
- Independents are nearly evenly split, while Sherrill maintains strong support from women, younger voters, and voters of color
- The race remains competitive with significant uncertainty in turnout and late decision-making
Sherrill leads but the real battle may come down to undecided voters and shifting turnout in the final stretch of the race.
