Voters split on who will win as Sherrill and Ciattarelli race to the finish in N.J. governor’s contest
NEW BRUNSWICK, N.J. – New Jersey voters are nearly evenly divided over who they believe will win the state’s governor’s race, with just a one-point gap separating Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli in voter expectations, a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll finds.
Forty-three percent of voters say they believe Sherrill will win, while 42% think Ciattarelli will come out on top — a statistical tie that underscores how uncertain the outcome remains less than two weeks before Election Day.
The narrow perception gap mirrors the closeness of the race itself, where Sherrill leads Ciattarelli 50% to 45% among likely voters, within the poll’s margin of error.
Key Points
- Only 1% separates voters’ expectations of who will win — 43% say Sherrill, 42% say Ciattarelli.
- Sherrill holds a slim 5-point edge in the actual ballot test, within the poll’s margin of error.
- More than half of voters say former President Donald Trump is a major factor in how they’ll vote.
Expectations show razor-thin divide
The findings reveal a sharply polarized electorate unsure of which candidate will prevail. “Polls show a close race as voters tune in and opinions solidify, but the outcome will ultimately hinge on each campaign’s turnout operation,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling.
Only 15% of respondents said they were unsure who would win, while less than 1% predicted a different candidate would take the governorship.
Trump looms large over the race
Former President Donald Trump continues to influence the contest, with 52% of voters calling him a “major factor” in their decision. Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to cite Trump as a central motivator — 78% to 38% — while 42% of independents said the same.
Tight margins across key issues
Voters remain evenly split on economic and social concerns. Sherrill holds slight advantages on education, schools, and health care, while Ciattarelli fares better on taxes, government spending, and crime. Neither candidate has managed to claim a dominant lead on affordability, jobs, or transportation — issues that continue to define the campaign’s final stretch.
Turnout seen as decisive
The poll’s results suggest that the Nov. 4 election may hinge on voter turnout. Off-year elections in New Jersey often draw smaller, less predictable electorates — a dynamic that could make the difference in one of the state’s tightest gubernatorial contests in recent memory.
The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll surveyed 795 likely voters statewide between Oct. 3 and Oct. 17. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
