If New Jersey voters really like Trump and Vance more than Harris and Walz, they have a funny way of showing it in the numbers! Here’s the lowdown:

In a head-to-head matchup, a poll from ActiVote conducted between September 4 and October 2, 2024, showed that 56% of likely voters in New Jersey would pick Kamala Harris, while only 44% would choose Donald Trump.

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So, despite the headline drama, Harris actually has a 12-point lead over Trump. You could almost hear the dramatic plot twist music right there.

But let’s dig into the favorability ratings for a second. In a Stockton University poll conducted at the end of September, Trump wasn’t exactly getting love letters. 54% of respondents viewed him unfavorably, while only 43% had a favorable opinion, giving him a net -11 favorability rating. Meanwhile, Harris didn’t fare too much better—just 50% gave her a thumbs up while 48% hit her with the side-eye. Still, she ends up with a tiny +2 advantage.

Now, over to the wild card pair of J.D. Vance and Tim Walz, who got thrown into the Jersey ring. Vance seemed to have it rough—50% of respondents saw him in a negative light, compared to just 34% with a favorable view. Even more damning? A significant 16% weren’t sure what to think. Walz, on the other hand, had a slightly better vibe, with 44% favorability against 36% unfavorability, leaving a pretty large chunk (20%) of voters scratching their heads.

So, to wrap this up: Harris is holding down New Jersey against Trump in a straight-up matchup, and when it comes to favorability, the numbers say voters aren’t exactly throwing a parade for either Trump or Vance. They seem to be willing to give Harris and Walz the benefit of the doubt, but it’s clear the race for hearts and minds is still wide open!

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Phil Stilton is the Editor and Publisher of Shore News Network, an independent digital newsroom providing original reporting on New Jersey, national news, government, public policy, public safety, courts, and community affairs.

As founder of the publication, Stilton leads editorial strategy, investigative reporting, and daily newsroom operations while overseeing coverage that reaches millions of readers annually.

With extensive experience covering municipal government, county government, state legislatures, elections, law enforcement, emergency management, and public records, Stilton specializes in translating complex government actions into clear, factual reporting. His work frequently relies on primary source documents, including court filings, legislation, public meeting records, election finance disclosures, government databases, police reports, and Freedom of Information and Open Public Records Act (OPRA) requests. He has reported extensively on local government accountability, taxpayer spending, campaign finance, public corruption investigations, infrastructure, public safety, and the policies affecting New Jersey residents.

Under Stilton's editorial leadership, Shore News Network has grown into one of New Jersey's largest independent digital news organizations, publishing thousands of original news articles each year while providing breaking news coverage, investigative reporting, and analysis across state and local government. The publication's reporting is routinely sourced from official government agencies, public officials, court records, and firsthand documentation, with a commitment to transparency, attribution, corrections when warranted, and clearly distinguishing factual reporting from opinion.

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