John Fetterman’s Split With Pennsylvania Democrats Deepens as 2028 Questions Grow

HARRISBURG, Pa. – Two years ago, Pennsylvania Democrats wanted John Fetterman on the campaign trail. In 2026, the Democratic senator’s relationship with his own party looks remarkably different.

Fetterman has broken with Democrats on Israel, government funding, some Trump administration nominees and other high-profile issues. The political impact is now showing up well beyond Washington: recent Pennsylvania polling finds his support has essentially flipped across party lines, with Republicans viewing the Democratic senator far more favorably than Democrats do.

• A July Quinnipiac poll found 77% of Pennsylvania Republicans approved of Fetterman’s job performance, compared with just 19% of Democrats.
• Fetterman has said he remains a Democrat, but he has acknowledged significant disagreements with his party.
• No 2028 Senate primary is underway yet, but several Pennsylvania Democrats have been publicly discussed as possible challengers.

Fetterman’s Political Coalition Has Changed

The numbers tell much of the story.

A July Quinnipiac University poll found Fetterman’s statewide job approval at 48%, with 41% disapproving. Viewed only through those numbers, his standing might not appear especially unusual for a senator in a closely divided state.

The partisan breakdown was anything but ordinary.

Among Republicans, 77% approved of Fetterman’s performance and 12% disapproved. Among Democrats, 19% approved while 69% disapproved. Independents were more closely divided, with 44% approving and 48% disapproving.

The same poll found 52% of Pennsylvania voters wanted Fetterman to leave the Democratic Party, while 31% wanted him to remain.

Another survey released in August by The Philadelphia Inquirer, New York Times and Siena University found two-thirds of likely Democratic voters believed Fetterman supports President Donald Trump too often. About half said he had been too supportive of Israel.

Those numbers help explain why talk of 2028 has started unusually early.

Why Pennsylvania Democrats Have Turned on Fetterman

There isn’t one issue behind the split.

Fetterman remains a strong supporter of Israel and has repeatedly criticized Democrats on the party’s left flank. He also voted with Republicans to end last year’s government shutdown, supported several Trump nominees and opposed efforts aimed at ending the war in Iran.

His relationship with Republican Sen. Dave McCormick has also drawn attention. The two Pennsylvania senators have appeared together publicly and worked jointly on some issues despite representing different parties.

Fetterman, however, rejects the idea that those positions make him a Republican.

He has pointed to his continued support for abortion rights, organized labor, LGBTQ rights, SNAP benefits and marijuana legalization as evidence that his political identity remains Democratic.

The senator has also been critical of what he sees as his party’s movement toward its left flank, particularly on Israel.

That creates an unusual political situation. Fetterman isn’t simply becoming unpopular statewide. His overall approval has remained relatively stable while the voters supplying that approval have changed dramatically. Quinnipiac had his statewide approval at 46% in February and 48% in July.

Pennsylvania Democrats Are Already Looking Toward 2028

Fetterman’s Senate term doesn’t expire until 2029, meaning voters won’t decide the seat until November 2028.

Yet potential Democratic alternatives are already being discussed.

Among the names that have surfaced are U.S. Reps. Brendan Boyle and Chris Deluzio, former Rep. Conor Lamb and former Rep. Susan Wild. Lamb lost the 2022 Democratic Senate primary to Fetterman, while Wild has reportedly been encouraged to consider a 2028 run.

Fetterman hasn’t announced whether he will seek another term.

That leaves Pennsylvania Democrats confronting two separate possibilities: a primary against an incumbent Fetterman, or an open-seat contest if he decides not to run.

The state’s changing Democratic politics could further complicate that decision. Progressive candidates have scored victories in Pennsylvania, particularly around Philadelphia, while Democrats continue to compete for moderate and working-class voters across a state that remains closely contested in statewide elections.

No single potential challenger has emerged as the Democratic alternative to Fetterman, and there is no guarantee that everyone currently mentioned will run.

But the discussion itself is striking this far from the election.

From All 67 Counties to an Uncertain Political Future

The contrast with 2022 is difficult to miss.

Fetterman won every Pennsylvania county in that year’s Democratic Senate primary before defeating Republican Mehmet Oz in November. Two years later, he was a sought-after surrogate campaigning for Democrats around Pennsylvania.

Today, the senator occupies a much more unusual position: a Democrat whose job performance is overwhelmingly disapproved of by Democratic voters in one major poll while receiving overwhelming approval from Republicans.

The Associated Press reported Wednesday that Fetterman has largely disappeared from the Democratic campaign trail as his disagreements with the party have intensified.

Whether that political realignment lasts until 2028 remains an open question. So does Fetterman’s own decision about seeking another term.

For Pennsylvania Democrats, however, the conversation that normally would begin much closer to a Senate election has already started.

Fetterman’s overall approval doesn’t tell the entire story.
His statewide approval was 48% in July, but Republicans overwhelmingly approved of his performance while Democrats overwhelmingly disapproved.

Several issues have driven his disagreements with Democrats.
His positions on Israel, Trump nominees, government funding and the party’s progressive wing have repeatedly put him at odds with fellow Democrats.

The 2028 Democratic field remains unsettled.
Several Pennsylvania Democrats have been discussed as potential candidates, but Fetterman hasn’t announced whether he will seek reelection and no primary field has been established.

Sources: Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania polling