Polymarket traders are pricing Republican Justin Murphy at roughly 3% to 4% in New Jersey’s U.S. Senate race, creating a huge potential payout for anyone willing to wager on an upset.
TRENTON, N.J. — Think Justin Murphy can pull off a political shocker against U.S. Sen. Cory Booker? We don’t either, but if you’re willing to take a risk, he might be your guy to help you pay off your overdue electric bills, skyrocketing rent, and fill up a few gas tanks in New Jersey’s out-of-congtrol and unaffordable economy.
The prediction markets are offering a potentially enormous payoff.
As of Sept. 28, Polymarket pricing put the Republican side of New Jersey’s Senate race at about 3.4 cents per share, equivalent to roughly 3.4% in market-implied probability. 2026election.com
At that price, $1,000 could buy roughly 29,400 shares. If Murphy wins and the contracts settle at $1 apiece, they would be worth about $29,400 — approximately $28,400 more than the initial stake before fees and trading costs.
If Murphy loses, however, contracts held through settlement would be worth zero and you get nothing but four more years to suffer through Cory Booker’s politics, and be $1,000 lighter in the pocket.
The Huge Return Reflects a Huge Financial Gap
The price partly reflects the dramatically different financial positions of the two campaigns. Booker reported nearly $18.9 million in receipts during the 2025-26 cycle through June 30 and about $23.1 million in cash on hand, according to Federal Election Commission records. FEC.gov.
On the other side, Murphy amassed a war chest of $27,315.52, about how much you would win if he somehow pulled it off.
Prediction Market Is Not a Poll
The Polymarket number should not be confused with statewide polling.
Prediction markets are based on what traders are willing to pay for contracts, and prices can change rapidly. The New Jersey market also has relatively modest trading volume compared with some nationally watched races.
Polymarket showed Booker near 97 cents and Murphy around 3 cents in recent trading.
The payout mathematics explain why a Murphy contract can attract attention even at such a low price.
At roughly 3.4 cents, a bettor risks losing nearly everything if Murphy falls short. But an upset would turn every winning share into $1 — making a $1,000 position worth close to $30,000.
For anyone looking at the race strictly through the prediction-market lens, Murphy is being priced as a very inexpensive political long shot with a correspondingly large potential payout.
Shore News Network is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Polymarket or any other betting or prediction-market platform. References to betting odds, potential payouts, or market prices are presented for informational and editorial purposes only and should not be considered gambling, financial, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices can change rapidly, and wagers can result in the loss of the entire amount risked. Shore News Network does not endorse Justin Murphy, Cory Booker, any political candidate, or Polymarket.
And with Murphy, chances are, you’ll lose your money.
