TRENTON, NJ — A new poll from National Research Inc. has upended the landscape of New Jersey’s Republican primary race for governor, signaling a decisive shift in momentum just months before the 2025 primary.
The results reveal a clear frontrunner emerging from a once-crowded and uncertain field.
Key Points
- National Research Inc. survey shows major gains for one GOP candidate
- Undecided voter count drops sharply since February
- Image and electability metrics shift significantly ahead of the 2025 primary
One candidate surges as others stall
The survey, conducted from April 8–10 among 600 likely Republican primary voters, shows former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli surging ahead with 51% support—an increase of nine points since February.
The poll also shows a steep drop in undecided voters, down ten points to 14%, indicating a rapidly crystallizing race.
Ciattarelli’s lead places him far ahead of his nearest challenger, conservative talk show host Bill Spadea, who remains static at 22%. Other contenders, including Bramnick (9%), Durr (3%), and Kranjac (3%), trail by wide margins.
The poll reveals that Ciattarelli has not only improved his ballot share but also significantly boosted his favorability. His image rating now stands at 67% favorable to 16% unfavorable—an eight-point improvement since February. Voters see Ciattarelli as more electable in both the primary and general elections, with 62% saying he has the best chance to win the primary, compared to 18% for Spadea.
Spadea, meanwhile, has seen his unfavorable rating rise since December, now standing at 28%. Despite a steady ballot number, his inability to gain ground and his slipping perception among voters raise questions about his campaign’s tactics.
But what is wrong with Spadea? He appears to be the premier Trump candidate. Well, Bill has some problems he hasn’t been able to overcome.
First is name recognition. While Spadea believes Ciattarelli’s two previous losses for governor is a negative, for the voters, who are familiar with seeing his name on big ballots, it’s a positive.
Despite Spadea hailing himself as a bigtime radio host and movie producer, let’s face it, few people listen to the radio anymore and even fewer listen to talk-radio. His movies all bombed and have been identified as not even being worthy of Hallmark.
He has no real name recognition outside of the die-hard Trump and MAGA circles.
Spadea has also made a career out of changing his mind and following trends. Many Republicans are having a hard time figuring out where Bill Spadea, the radio host who called Trump a failure, called for a path to citizenship, called for a flu vaccine mandate, and other liberal stances ends, and where Bill Spadea, the MAGA candidate begins.
For those who are fans of the Mel Brooks’ movie History of the World Part I, Spadea is a standup philospher.
In other words, he’s a bullshit artist. New Jersey voters know a bullshit artist when they see one and while he might convince a large chunk of Republicans with shiny words like Trump, MAGA, and “F-ck Phil Murphy”, his speeches ring hollow to many others, knowing that he comes off like a snakeoil salesman.
Lastly, Bill’s political grift has been called out. He promised to raise millions of dollars for Republican candidates across New Jersey, but February 2025 filings with the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission show that he’s a well-paid standup philosopher. $225,000 in payments were made to Spadea by Elect Common Sense, the organization he founded to raise money for those candidates. A large chunk of those small-dollar donations went directly into Spadea’s pockets.
Additionally, it is alleged that he’s also taking a $65,000 salary from another political action committee that bears a similar name.
Perceptions of Trump alignment and viability
While Spadea built his brand appealing to pro-Trump voters, the poll shows Ciattarelli now leads in that perception as well, with 46% viewing him as “more pro-Trump,” compared to 25% for Spadea.
This is a reversal from February, when Spadea held the edge.
The findings suggest Republican voters in New Jersey are coalescing around a single candidate as the June primary approaches, potentially narrowing the path for trailing campaigns to mount a comeback.
