Gun Violence is Dropping, But City Remains One of Most Dangerous Cities in New Jersey, According to the Data

PATERSON, NJ — Gov. Mikie Sherrill is touting a sharp decline in shootings in Paterson this year, pointing to new police statistics showing shooting incidents have fallen 55% through the end of August.

The decline is substantial. But the numbers also come with important context left out by Sherrill: Paterson has historically experienced gun violence at a rate several times higher than New Jersey as a whole, and even after years of improvement, the city remains one of the state’s most concentrated areas for shootings.

Paterson, New Jersey, is home to one of the most vibrant Muslim and Arab-American communities in the United States, featuring the second-highest percentage of Muslim residents of any U.S. city. The city’s deep connection to Islam and the unique nickname “Little Palestine” (historically “Little Ramallah”) are rooted in a century of immigration, cultural preservation, and growing civic power

“In Paterson, shootings are down 55% this year, alongside significant declines in robberies and killings. That’s real progress – and we’re going to keep working to make every community safer,” Sherrill said. “Because every New Jerseyan deserves to feel safe in their neighborhood.”

“In Paterson, shootings are down 55% this year, alongside significant declines in robberies and killings,” Sherrill wrote Monday, calling the numbers “real progress.”

Shooting incidents down 55%, victims down 22%

The latest Paterson Police Department statistics show 14 shooting incidents through Aug. 30, compared with 31 during the same period in 2025 — the 55% decline referenced by Sherrill.

The number of people actually shot also declined, although by a smaller percentage. Paterson recorded 25 shooting victims through Aug. 30, down from 32 during the same period last year, a 22% decrease.

The summer numbers were even more dramatic.

From June through August, just three people were shot in Paterson, compared with 11 during the summer of 2025 and 27 during the same three-month period in 2024. That represents a 73% one-year decline and an 89% decline over two years.

Murders during the summer fell from four in 2025 to one this year. Robberies dropped 27%, burglaries fell 23% and aggravated assaults declined 6%, according to police.

Paterson remains disproportionately affected by shootings

The improvement does not mean Paterson’s gun-violence problem has disappeared.

A look at the longer-term numbers shows just how unusually concentrated shootings have been in the city.

Paterson recorded 127 shooting victims in 2022, followed by 95 in 2023 and 87 in 2024.

Statewide, New Jersey recorded 1,059 shooting victims in 2022, 924 in 2023 and 778 in 2024.

That means Paterson alone accounted for roughly 12% of all New Jersey shooting victims in 2022, 10.3% in 2023 and 11.2% in 2024.

Yet according to U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, Paterson had about 161,800 residents in 2025, while New Jersey’s population was roughly 9.55 million. Paterson therefore contains only about 1.7% of the state’s population.

In other words, during recent full years, a city containing less than 2% of New Jersey’s residents accounted for roughly one out of every nine to 10 people shot statewide.

2024 rate was roughly six times statewide level

The difference becomes more apparent when the figures are adjusted for population.

Using the 2024 shooting totals and recent population estimates, Paterson’s 87 shooting victims translate to roughly 54 shooting victims per 100,000 residents.

New Jersey’s 778 shooting victims that year, against a population of about 9.5 million, translate to roughly eight shooting victims per 100,000 residents.

That puts Paterson’s approximate shooting-victim rate during 2024 at more than six times the statewide rate.

A previous Shore News Network review of New Jersey gun-violence data similarly found shootings heavily concentrated in several urban counties, including Passaic County.

Paterson’s decline began before Sherrill became governor

The New Jersey Attorney General’s Office assumed control of the Paterson Police Department in March 2023. Since then, police have expanded what officials call precision policing, data-driven deployment, violence intervention, surveillance-camera integration and real-time intelligence operations.

Shooting victims fell from 127 in 2022 to 95 in 2023 and 87 in 2024. State officials reported another large reduction during 2025.

That broader decline mirrors a statewide trend. New Jersey recorded 559 shooting victims in 2025, down 28% from 778 in 2024 and the lowest total since statewide tracking began in 2009. Shooting deaths fell to 107, down from 152 the previous year.

Sherrill has cited that broader decline while defending New Jersey’s gun laws, saying in July that shootings had declined for three consecutive years.

Police credit enforcement, technology and intervention

Paterson police have attributed the latest improvement to a combination of enforcement, prevention, technology and community programs.

The department said officers recovered more than 100 firearms from city streets through August, including 23 during July and another 17 during August. Police have also expanded intelligence-led deployments and community violence-intervention programs.

Officer in Charge Patrick Murray said the reductions reflected continued work by Paterson officers while acknowledging that further progress is needed.

“While there is always more work to do, the historic reductions we are seeing in shootings and several other major categories of crime are encouraging,” Murray said.

The city remains under state oversight, making Paterson an unusual test of New Jersey’s approach to violent crime, policing and community intervention.

Carry permits also surged while shootings fell

Another major change unfolded during the same period.

After the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 Bruen ruling effectively ended New Jersey’s previous requirement that applicants demonstrate a special need to carry a handgun, applications for permits to carry increased dramatically.

That expansion happened at the same time shootings were falling statewide and in Paterson.

There is not, however, evidence establishing that the increase in licensed civilian carry caused the decline in shootings. Nor does the available New Jersey data establish that expanded legal carry caused shootings to rise.

Several major developments occurred simultaneously — the national retreat from the pandemic-era violence surge, changes in Paterson policing, increased firearm recoveries, violence-intervention spending and a large increase in lawful carry permits.

Separating the effect of any one factor requires more evidence than the raw trend lines provide.

A real decline from an unusually high starting point

The latest Paterson statistics show a significant reduction in gun violence, particularly during the summer of 2026.

But the same data also show why percentages alone do not tell the entire story.

Paterson is coming down from an exceptionally high baseline. The city’s shooting burden has historically been several times greater than New Jersey’s statewide rate, and a disproportionately large share of the state’s shooting victims has been concentrated in Paterson despite the city representing less than 2% of New Jersey’s population.