MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russia’s economy is expected to expand by 2.6% in 2024-2025 thanks to domestic consumer and investment demand, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on Wednesday, after falling this year and next due to Western sanctions.
Russian gross domestic product (GDP) is seen falling by 2.9% this year and by 0.8% in 2023, Reshetnikov told the upper house of parliament, with the jobless rate seen at 4.5% and inflation at 12.4% by end-2022.
Russian officials have been improving forecasts as Western sanctions caused a spike in price for Russian oil, gas and commodities exports despite shortages and talk of a need to restrict the country’s usage.
In April, the World Bank had forecast a GDP contraction as deep as 11.2% this year but Reshetnikov said emergency support measures taken by the government coupled with high energy prices have helped stabilise the situation.
According to the forecast, the price for Russian Urals oil is seen at $70 per barrel next year and $65 in 2025, with discounts narrowing as Russia re-routes export flows to what Reshetnikov called “neutral countries” – the ones which did not join sanctions on Moscow after it sent troops into Ukraine.
Below is table with latest economy ministry’s forecasts:
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Urals 69.1 80.0 70.1 67.5 65.0
price,
dollar/bar
rel
GDP, % 4.7 -2.9 -0.8 2.6 2.6
CPI by 12.4 5.5 4.0 4.0
year-end, 8.4
% to Dec
Capital 7.7 -2.0 -1.0 3.9 3.7
investment
s, %
Real 3.1 -2.0 2.0 3.1 2.8
disposable
income, %
Real 4.5 -2.0 2.6 2.9 2.8
wages, %
Retail 7.8 -6.1 2.7 3.7 3.1
sales, %
Jobless 4.8 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.1
rate, % to
workforce
(Reporting by Reuters; editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Mark Heinrich)
